Increasing denominations anomoly

[OceanCityMD]

Got back from a week in Vegas, Stayed at GVR. Wife who doesn't know about correct holds in VP hit 2 $4K royals on the same Dueces machine two days apart, She maybe put $500 total thru the machine. Her first royal, both in spades and both needing only the 10 occured within 5 hands of play upon arrival. Next morning within 50 hands. Cards were not in any particular order though. I on the other hand lost about $7k playing mostly Singer play.
My wife for instance will hold say a 4S and toss 3 to straight. She really has no strategy. Just goes to show how I believe the programs are. Myself playing as well as I can, by the strategy, lost.
During the hot cycles I noticed, not only because my brain can't recall winning streaks like some APers profess, when I increased denoms I would get nothing- like I was being punished. My last session while winning at $2 (hitting flushs,FH etc) and increasing to $5 Bonus poker, I went 16 straight hands without so much a pair. I believe that is impossible. I am sure any one playing also notices these repetitive recurring low pairs over and over, many times in the same positions. These are a few of the examples.
BTW - I hit exactly 2 royals in my life, the second happened at GVR while I was messing around playing a 10 cent machine. I guess I should play at nickles for 40,000 or so more hands. I really believe the technology allows some/most of the newer vp machines to recognize your play against it (the house) and deal accordingly. Could this be to thwart the 'advantage players' ?
This is my analysis after years of play and paying attention. YMMV
Ron

[Rob.Singer]

You played my strategy? The only person who knows it almost as perfectly as I do lives in LV, and if anyone plays it without the proper bankroll and procedure, I have no idea how anyone would fare.

[OceanCityMD]

Hi Rob.
Your correct didn't have proper bankroll/mindset for this trip. Mostly Singer strategy with credit cash outs/ varying denoms. This was a vacation trip didn't spend much time gambling. Rented car went out and did things.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, the "basic" fundamental of your strategy is the $2,500 win goal based on your bankroll of something like $70,000. Can you come up with a "win goal" for someone with a smaller bankroll such as $500 or $1,000 or $3,000 ? And at what denomination should they start playing? thanks.

And to OceanCityMD welcome to the Forum. I hope our Las Vegas contributors will look at the post you made in the "Open" forum about machines and their honesty-- or lack of it.

[Rob.Singer]

My strategy is comprised of these parts, and each part is as important as any of the others:

1) Bankroll of $57,200. You need 3X that amount if you plan on playing the strategy professionally for a consistent profit.
2) The session win goal is $2500. The stop-loss goal is wherever you are after going thru all denominations' credits once (2400).
3) You must change machines whenver a cold cycle is detected. I train players how to do this, but players usually don't get it.
4) The discipline to always do what you say you are going to do is imperative.
5) NEVER use a casino ATM, casino credit, or cash a check inside a casino.
6) NEVER tip on handpays or tip a casino cashier.
7) You must use all of my special plays that deviate from optimal strategy.
8) Booze is not allowed during play.
9) Speed is not a factor.
10) NEVER play when on someone else's schedule.

For smaller stakes, the only way I can think of doing this without re-running all the original numbers, is to play 1c/2c/5c/10c/25c/$1 the same way I play 100X those denominations, and to reduce the win goal from $2500 to $25/session. It could be possible to change some of it around but at this time I have no idea how that would be.

[Alan Mendelson]

Basically, Rob, you have a win goal that is a little shy of 5% of your starting bankroll. There is nothing wrong with this. Getting a return of 5% on your money every day can make you a rich person.

So starting with a $100 bankroll, when you're up $5 you walk. Do that 5 days a week, and you have a win of $25 which is 25% of your bankroll pocketed as a win each week.

You can't get that kind of return from any bank account, or any stock dividend... that's for sure.

[Rob.Singer]

The problem with that simplification Alan is that there is far too little discipline amongst vp players to actually do that and walk. But you're right--that is exactly the premise under which I developed my play strategy.

[Vegas Vic]

re: #3 You must change machines whenver a cold cycle is detected.

What determines a cold cycle? Do your fingers suddenly feel chilled?

If you move on to another machine, how is it possible to select a machine that won't have its own cold cycle at the onset? You could be wandering for days.

At what point do you add the fabric softener?

[Alan Mendelson]

vegas Vic, you get five-stars for the best post of the new year! That's funny... and a valid question. How do you know you aren't moving to a machine that is having its own cold cycle?

I know that machines are not supposed to have hot cycles or cold cycles... but we've all gone through hot cycles and cold cycles. Admit it.

But I believe that a cold cycle means a big win is coming to end it. And this belief of mine (call it a fantasy if you like) goes back to the days when I played slots like Wheel of Fortune. If I were at a "Wheel" machine that wasn't getting any "spins" then when I did get a spin it would usually be for a large amount. Hot machines had a lot of spins that paid $20 or $30, but after a long cold cycle, the spin would be $500 or $800 or $1,000. The last time I played Wheel of Fortune slots I say a machine that took $100 without a spin. Then the cold cycle broke with a spin and I got the top $1,000 prize. That put me on a "hot cycle" but the next half dozen spins were all small with $20 or $40.

Call it selective memory and I can't argue with you.

But getting back to Vic's question, when you go to a machine, how do you know where it is in its cold cycle or hot cycle?

[redietz]

If the woman at the machine has to lean back so her cleavage doesn't push the buttons accidentally, the machine is in a hot cycle.

[Rob.Singer]

Yes, that's a hot cycle! But back to what actually's going on....first, if I find myself in a hot cycle--which is easier to detect than a cold one because it's pretty obvious--and if it is right in the middle of my hitting my win goal--I still get up and go. Greed has killed a lot of profitting, and you never know when the cycle will end.

Cold cycles are not really that difficult to detect as one might think, but only individuals who are totally aware and have the proper capability/mindset can do it right. And it's not something I made up or discovered on my own. I was TOLD what to look for by a machine programmer, and I found him to be absolutely right.

Within about 100 hands, if you find you're not converting the card that'll fill in the four card straight, flush, full house, SF, or RF even once while never getting at least a high pair on any of your sweeps, then you are in a cold cycle, and that cycle will usually go on for hundreds of hands. If you do get a quad or other big (SF or RF) winner within those hands by some other manner besides holding four cards, of course you're not in a true cold streak, but I was advised to switch machines immediately afterward anyway because a cold cycle is imminent.

So Vic, how do I know I'm not moving right into another cold cycle at that point? That's easy--it never hurts to move, and although players will come across many more cold cycles than hot ones, there is no sense in staying at one that is cold.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, thanks for posting this definition of yours for a cold cycle:

Within about 100 hands, if you find you're not converting the card that'll fill in the four card straight, flush, full house, SF, or RF even once while never getting at least a high pair on any of your sweeps, then you are in a cold cycle,

You and I have discussed this. I don't think I have ever seen this type of "missing" in a hundred hands. Therefore, I have never been at a machine with having what you describe as a "cold cycle."

[Rob.Singer]

I've sat with quite a few people who were told what cold cycles were, yet I had to be the one to identify them when they occurred. It's not that you don't think you've seen them, it's that you don't try to detect them and really aren't playing in the awareness mode you should be in to spot them. But do it regularly and it'll eventually become an automatic part of your game.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, it would be very easy for someone -- ANYONE -- to remember if they hit a run of 100 hands that miss like that. Are you sure you want to stick with that number of "100" ??

[Rob.Singer]

I'm saying this from experience as well as experiences with those I've trained and still do. The 100 hands figure isn't mine, but what I was told and readily discovered to be true. If you're not tuned in to what to look for you never will see it, and will always say you haven't witnessed it. As someone who can detect these things automatically, they are not as common as you're probably thinking they might be either.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, I think you're missing my point. I think a lot of people will call a machine "cold" well before "100 hands." Heck, I've sat at video poker machines that didnt give a paying pair for 20 hands straight, and had I left the machine then I would have saved myself another 20 hands without a paying pair. So what I'm saying is a "cold machine" or cycle will show itself well before your "100 hands" figure.

[Rob.Singer]

Not true--at least to the extent I was informed. There are so many times simple random fluctuation comes into play that gives us 20 losers in a row or a heap of them scattered within a few hundred or more or less hands. But a TRUE PROGRAMMED-IN cold cycle is only within the parameters that I identified.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, if I wanted my programmers to "program in a cold cycle" I would tell them to do something like this:

20 hands nothing, one hand small winner, 20 hands nothing, one hand small winner... etc.

Why do something like 100 losers that would send the fish away for good??

[Rob.Singer]

Where have I stated 100 losers? It's the hands I identified happening in conjunction with multiple RAZGU's that do not produce at least a high pair. You can get a bunch of trips or high pairs, one or two-card hold losers, dealt straights, etc. amongst them.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, I'm afraid you will have to define it and write it down again: how do you define a "cold machine"? I admit I do not fully understand your definition, and I'm going to suggest that no one else does either.

I think a lot of your ideas are misunderstood -- and if written more clearly -- would be more accepted by your critics. Would you care to try again, please? Thanks.