Tweet is here: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnSmi31...32675631296512

I really like this guy ... not afraid to tell it like is and has a good head on his shoulders.

Tweet is: “The more I do this I realize a key to success is to be unemotional with big swings. Last week low, down $4,200. High up $10,400. Finish, up around $2,000. What I care about most, did I only take good plays and avoid tilt and Degen mode? Yes! So good week!“

The guy is so close but gets it wrong. It’s not actual wins or losses it’s $EV.

Recall a simple estimate is bird in hand is worth two in the bush (per CE theory): $1 win is worth roughly $2 in EV. So if the guy claims he was up $10,400, then he was stating (unbeknownst to him) that he found roughly $20,800 in $EV. CE is just one of many frameworks to understand this situation.

You can read this paper: http://canjarrm.faculty.udmercy.edu/InsurancePaper.pdf for the definition to approximate CE using EV and your bankroll, etc. Appendix 2 derives this formula.

Here is the common mistakes that APs, Scavengers, etc make:
- failure to look at $EV vs actual wins or losses
- the hustler get tested on things he controls, which is chasing $EV; the hustler DOES NOT have any control on the actual wins or losses.

Had the guy in the tweet substituted $EV for the $2,000 actual result, he would have been right on the money. It would have been nice if he shared with us how his wins and losses (aka the $14,600 swing) compared with his $EV, respectively.

I don’t play high variance crap so I don’t have these types of swings and rarely do I get stuck during a play; “stuck” means being down or losing money on the play but cannot leave due to the amount of equity in the current play, respectively.