Imagine if Rob singer played roulette instead of VP. That's a roulette troll.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Number patterns and sequences, betting systems, hot and cold numbers, etc.
Imagine if Rob singer played roulette instead of VP. That's a roulette troll.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Number patterns and sequences, betting systems, hot and cold numbers, etc.
You don't want to know, Alan. It's one area of gambling forums where I don't mind the trolls hammering on the system sellers. I personally think the system sellers should be trolled. Unfortunately, Rob wouldn't be good at the job of trolling them because he is a system seller, voodoo gambler, from hell. I stay out of the roulette threads.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Roulette system sellers? They would have had fun with this.
Quite hilarious. Looks like I got poor little Robbie to make a fool of himself yet again. After claiming my wife died from going to casinos he then BRAGS about dragging his wife to a casino on Christmas day. LOLOLOLOLOLOL
Robbie tells so many lies that he can't keep them straight. I suspect he's running around in a clown suit with a big red nose. We should call him Rudolph. I wonder where mama is hiding and when he will try to rescue the little imp.
Rob harrassed me through email. I repeatedly told him to quit. The only way I got it to stop was by blocking his email addresses.
Alan, you continue go stand up for that prick.
In the UK, the only place I know the technology is legal, are whats called "compensated slots." These slots are programmed to use "adaptive logic" to change the odds on the line pays according to whether the machine has been paying out more or less than the target payback percentage. The logic used is so accurate that through 100,000 coin-in the payback will be within .03% of the target payback percentage.Originally Posted by slingshot
These machines are not legal in the larger casinos in the UK. They are legal for pub owners. They are designed to take the variance out of the pub owners cash flow and give him/her a steady stream of income. It is a typical 1 pound bet with a maximum 300 pound payoff.
There are sharp gamblers in the UK who monitor these machines and know when a machine is due for a hot streak.
I would like to hear all opinions, then, on why I can walk in on a certain day and for 3 hours STRUGGLE to hit just one quad and on another day hit quads, straight flushes, etc. easily in the same 2-3 hour period. How does that satisfy true randomness? I once went ALL day without a quad.Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Oh, and since no one was aware of the season, I hope all had a Merry Christmas and I wish a Happy New Year.
*Rob moves to U.K. to prove his system works*
Randomness is not the same as equal distribution. The same thing happens at blackjack, Three Card poker, Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and any other casino game. I've had TCP days where I've gotten 5+ straight flushes (1 in 460.416667) in one day and then went a week without one.Originally Posted by slingshot
Unfortunately, that's what happens with true randomness. I recently went through three trips without quad aces, and then I had a trip when I got quad aces four times -- all within 24 hours -- and then I had three more trips with zero quad aces.Originally Posted by slingshot
I've hit two royals in one day twice. Then I had a year without even one royal. Jason hit FIVE royals in 24 hours (four at Caesars, one at Gold Strike).
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Nothing but variance at its best....or worst. Nothing out of the ordinary....except your hopes an dreams.
What you are experiencing is plain and simple variance. Don't forget that when you are playing video poker that you have an opponent. That opponent is the house. When you are experiencing negative variance the house is experiencing positive variance. When you are experiencing positive variance the house is experiencing negative variance....at least on the game you are playing.Originally Posted by slingshot
The ploppy considers hitting a couple of quads in a hundred games as random. But if the ploppy goes 800 games without a quad then the game must be rigged. He/she is being cheated. That's just how the human brain reacts to it.
In a game like 9/6 Jacks, per the strategy, the frequency of making quads is 423. That means that on average, per the long run, you will average making quads about every 423 games. But what is your real chance of making quads in your next 423 games? Taking variance into account you only have about a 65% chance. About 35% of the time it will take you more than 423 games to hit a quad. And sometimes it can get pretty extreme.
I'm not as boned up on some formula's in probability. But RS once showed this kind of math. With the cycle being 423 what is the chance it will take you two cycles to hit a quad? The answer is 1 in 7. What is the chance it will take you 3 cycles? The answer is 1 in 25. I don't know the answer for 4 cycles or higher but it is well within probability of happening to you if you play long enough.
But flip it over. Have you ever hit back to back quads? I have. Once you make a quad what is the chance that you will make a quad on your next hand. The answer is 1 in 423. You can assign a probability of making a quad in your next 25 hands, 50 hands, 100 hands, etc.
I remember onetime going 4400 games between quads playing 9/6 Jacks. That's about 10.3 cycles. Someone told me the chance of that occurring is 1 in 22,000. But there is always a flipside. In one stretch playing Flush Attack, where the quad frequency is 429 and the flush frequency is 55, I once hit 7 quads but had only made 3 flushes.
Playing a few hour stretch where you average making a quad about every 200 games seems normal to the ploppy. The game is on the up and up. But if the ploppy goes 1000 games without a quad the machine just has to be rigged against him/her. That's just how people think. But all they are experiencing is normal variance.
Now get out there and hit those quads.
This fits my findings. The Horseshoe in Bossier seems to be on the up and up, but Margarittaville is questionable and me and my friends no longer play much there. I will soon lose my Landshark card and already they've cut the dinner for two. It's not sometimes but every trip and even players who win the bonus rounds are fortunate to get a return of coins in. I tried once and was fortunate after the third spin to hit the bonus round at $3.50 coins in and won a whopping $1.40! For sure many believe something's up.
Bump of a classic thread by Alan RIpOriginally Posted by mickeycrimmWhat you are experiencing is plain and simple variance. Don't forget that when you are playing video poker that you have an opponent. That opponent is the house. When you are experiencing negative variance the house is experiencing positive variance. When you are experiencing positive variance the house is experiencing negative variance....at least on the game you are playing.Originally Posted by slingshot
The ploppy considers hitting a couple of quads in a hundred games as random. But if the ploppy goes 800 games without a quad then the game must be rigged. He/she is being cheated. That's just how the human brain reacts to it.
In a game like 9/6 Jacks, per the strategy, the frequency of making quads is 423. That means that on average, per the long run, you will average making quads about every 423 games. But what is your real chance of making quads in your next 423 games? Taking variance into account you only have about a 65% chance. About 35% of the time it will take you more than 423 games to hit a quad. And sometimes it can get pretty extreme.
I'm not as boned up on some formula's in probability. But RS once showed this kind of math. With the cycle being 423 what is the chance it will take you two cycles to hit a quad? The answer is 1 in 7. What is the chance it will take you 3 cycles? The answer is 1 in 25. I don't know the answer for 4 cycles or higher but it is well within probability of happening to you if you play long enough.
But flip it over. Have you ever hit back to back quads? I have. Once you make a quad what is the chance that you will make a quad on your next hand. The answer is 1 in 423. You can assign a probability of making a quad in your next 25 hands, 50 hands, 100 hands, etc.
I remember onetime going 4400 games between quads playing 9/6 Jacks. That's about 10.3 cycles. Someone told me the chance of that occurring is 1 in 22,000. But there is always a flipside. In one stretch playing Flush Attack, where the quad frequency is 429 and the flush frequency is 55, I once hit 7 quads but had only made 3 flushes.
Playing a few hour stretch where you average making a quad about every 200 games seems normal to the ploppy. The game is on the up and up. But if the ploppy goes 1000 games without a quad the machine just has to be rigged against him/her. That's just how people think. But all they are experiencing is normal variance.
Now get out there and hit those quads.
This is the guy redietz sent binders full of autobiographical information to in order to obtain some kind of forum validation.
It wasn't about "forum validation." It was about validation that I was the Robert Dietz in sports gambling newsletters and books.Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Alan was a fine journalist with many achievements to be respected. Anyone who entered journalism would have been happy to have a career like Alan's. He had a logical/mathematical blind spot regarding the math of gambling and probability in general. He did a pretty good job regarding the 98% of his life that didn't involve a craps table and probability, and he was a very respected journalist for almost the entirety of his career.
Specifically, what the material I sent him was an answer to was:
Singer's claim that the "redietz" posting on this forum was not the Robert E. Dietz in "Tipsters or Gypsters?" or who had won the Heritage Sports Race to the Super Bowl or who had given a paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking. Singer was claiming the poster on this forum was someone else. I sent Alan material that nobody else could have gotten their hands on to demonstrate that the poster here was me.
Last edited by redietz; 11-30-2022 at 04:34 PM.
Yeah, and IIRC alan didn't even bother to look at it.
Instead there were lame excuses like "I haven't been to the office."
Dead perhaps, but what a putz...at times.
What, Me Worry?
This was one of many classic threads started by the great Yo Alan. It's comical to browse back and see how many of those threads had little to no responses early on, yet Alan the warrior kept dishing them out on the regular. Back in those days it primarly consisted of the 4 All-Star musketeers: Alan, Singer, Comrade Dietz, with good ole Archimedes(RIP) joining in on occasion.
He was too busy blowing his cash in casinos.Originally Posted by MisterV
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