Rigged machines, programmed cold cycles, and server based technology??

[Alan Mendelson]

Listen, if there is a dufus here, it's me. I accidentally locked the other thread when I was posting using my dumb phone instead of on a real computer with a real key pad. The other thread is now UNLOCKED.

Getting back to the question at hand about the special plays. Here is how I view the use of special plays.

1. Mathematically they are not the "correct" play in any video poker game for those who play the conventional method.
2. While they might not increase your chance to go home a winner if you play conventionally, some of the plays will allow you to make a certain win that is "good enough."
3. The "good enough win" while not the "optimum win or play" might allow you to reach a win goal so you can stop playing.

An example is holding and dropping the full house in 3 aces in 7/5 bonus: if you hit the fourth ace the 400 credits might allow you to go home with your win goal met as opposed to being sure to pocket the 35 coins from a full house.

Another example is holding three aces and dropping a kicker in TDB: if you hit the fourth ace for the 800 coin payoff you might be reaching your win goal, and dropping the kicker gives you two chances to hit the fourth ace. If you hold the kicker you only have one shot at the fourth ace. The trade off is the "kicker" which represents a possible 4,000 coin win. I offer this analogy for this special play: a bird at your fingertips is worth a dozen in the bush.

[Rob.Singer]

Alan, arci is incapable of understanding how making a special play one time, and if it hits, will send a player like me home with the profit. That's because he only thinks one-dimentional, where an overwhelming compulsion to keep sitting at the machine takes completely over, and he therefore HAS to pretend the play is going to have to be played theoretically a million times. He has no other way to analyze it, otherwise he'd have done it as requested.

Let's look at your TDBP hand of being dealt AAA26. Weak players will jump on holding AAA2 because they've been brainwashed by those who sell the math system into it being "worth more" than holding just the 3 Aces. But as we've seen, that's just long-term nonsense, because even if they hit it they'd sit there and play on and on anyway. However, the truth is, for winning players, there is no other sensible hold ON THIS ONE OPPORTUNITY than the AAA. Why? Because if the 4th ace appears, a player like me gets up and goes home with a profit on the higher denomination being played. It also allows for a kicker, and more FH's than can be realized by holding AAA2 only. So for arci trying to deliver his nebulous wording about how this hand WILL result in fewer hands is ludicrous to any strong player. There is only one goal here: hit and go home. If you don't go for the best possible hold of doing that, you are a losing player, pure and simple.

C'mon arci, no need to namecall. You of course know whenever you say I'm lying that all you're doing is telling another lie. Why do you think the Good Lord has presented you with such a challenging life--with us being so blessed here? Think about it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Once playing TDB I was dealt quad aces and didnt hit the kicker. Once I was dealt three aces without a kicker and didnt get the quad ace or a kicker in the draw. And once I was dealt trip aces with a kicker, and dropped the kicker and didnt get the fourth ace or a full house.

But holding the three aces and drawing primarily for the fourth ace FIRST I judged as my best play since just hitting four aces would have paid me a nice jackpot.

Plus when you hold the three aces you still could draw the fourth ace and a kicker.

[Rob.Singer]

That's about how it works Alan. But not to the AP. All you're really doing is costing youself when you just hold the 3 Aces. And don't forget, if your're playing a negative game, every bet is a bad bet, you're never gonna win if you do that, and even if you win by hitting the four aces you really LOST money on the play, and that cash in your wallet doesn't mean a thing.

[arcimede$]

Let's look at your TDBP hand of being dealt AAA26. Weak players will jump on holding AAA2 because they've been brainwashed by those who sell the math system into it being "worth more" than holding just the 3 Aces. But as we've seen, that's just long-term nonsense, because even if they hit it they'd sit there and play on and on anyway. However, the truth is, for winning players, there is no other sensible hold ON THIS ONE OPPORTUNITY than the AAA. Why? Because if the 4th ace appears, a player like me gets up and goes home with a profit on the higher denomination being played. It also allows for a kicker, and more FH's than can be realized by holding AAA2 only. So for arci trying to deliver his nebulous wording about how this hand WILL result in fewer hands is ludicrous to any strong player.

Seems our resident doofus (is that better? I'm quite flexible) can't even understand simple mathematics. Holding AAA2 you can get 3 FHs out of 47 possible draws. That's 6.4%. Holding AAA yields 66 FHs out of 1081 possible draws. That's 6.1%. Now doofus, which is bigger 6.4 or 6.1? Take your time.

This is the type of analysis you get from a doofus. He can't even do the simple tasks.

If one wanted to understand the extra hand situation you need to subtract out the big hits. In the case of holding AAA2 you get a return of 12. For AAA you get a return of 10.8. The extra 1.2 credits will yield a slightly better chance of hitting another big hand but not enough to make much difference. Of course, you have twice as good a chance of hitting a quad holding just AAA so one could make a case that you get more extra hands in that situation ... unless you would quit which negates that possibility.

If the ONLY goal was to reach a mystical win goal then it would depend on the situation. If AAAAx makes the win goal then AAA is the best hold. If it takes AAAAk to make the win goal then AAA2 is the best hold. If a person simply wants to win more money over their lifetime then AAA2 is far and away a better hold.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc here's my only comment about your TDB math: how many times in a year will you be dealt AAAkicker vs AAA without a kicker that you would even be bothered with the long term math? Only twice have I ever been dealt trip aces.

[arcimede$]

Arc here's my only comment about your TDB math: how many times in a year will you be dealt AAAkicker vs AAA without a kicker that you would even be bothered with the long term math? Only twice have I ever been dealt trip aces.

Since I don't play TDB the answer for me is simple ... zero.

Now, you get dealt 3oak about once every 44 hands (including FHs). Of those one in 13 will be aces. So, 13*44 = 572. Now, you only get a kicker about 1 in 4 times so the decision comes up about once every 2288 hands. If a person plays once week for around 4-5K hands a trip that means they get 2 chances a week or 104 chances each year. They should hit the AWAK about twice a year. Looking at it from a return perspective they'd earn 18.8 additional credits on average for each decision. 18.8 * 104 = 1955.2 credits. If you were playing at the $5 level that comes out to almost $10K.

Now, some people play a lot more than this and some play a lot less. Interestingly, as I demonstrated above, the average return of holding the kicker is higher for the hands where you don't end up with quad aces. So, if you play the game very rarely one could argue you're still better off holding the kicker.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well Arc since I play the game rarely, I'd rather increase my chances of just hitting a fourth ace. But, thanks for the illustration.

[Rob.Singer]

We'll let arci's namecalling go for now, but only because while my wife and I went out to dinner tonight I was feeling bad for the polenta and sugar-free oatmeal they were enjoying

The only way he could respond to my TDBP question was to twist the wording around. 6.1% & 6.4%....how funny, and that means absolutely nothing to a winning player. Now to what I really said: YOU CAN GET MORE FH's BY HOLDING THE AAA ONLY. I think arci knew he was digging a hole for himself on that one. You can tell how flustered he gets when he namecalls and ignores what the Good Lord responds to--and how.

[arcimede$]

You just have to love it when you see Singer scrambling to find a way to avoid looking stupid. Of course, the only way he could have looked anything but completely stupid was to admit he was wrong. But no, instead is comes right back and spews even more silly nonsense.

Sorry bonehead, you were wrong and trying to say you meant something different is beyond obvious. I'm sure people care that they could get aces over 3s rather than aces over 2s. Yeah, that makes a big difference. Now you know why it's absolutely correct to call him a dufus.

[slingshot]

We'll let arci's namecalling go for now, but only because while my wife and I went out to dinner tonight I was feeling bad for the polenta and sugar-free oatmeal they were enjoying

The only way he could respond to my TDBP question was to twist the wording around. 6.1% & 6.4%....how funny, and that means absolutely nothing to a winning player. Now to what I really said: YOU CAN GET MORE FH's BY HOLDING THE AAA ONLY. I think arci knew he was digging a hole for himself on that one. You can tell how flustered he gets when he namecalls and ignores what the Good Lord responds to--and how.

Yeah-the machines I've been playing don't understand the math,anyway. LOL.

[mikeisanace]

Casinos rig video poker machines more so than slot machines because of the hold. They do this by not pressing a magic button instead the switch game types to different random variations. The programs are jacks or better,aces and faces bonus deluxe which ever one you are playing they have cameras by the way.. The different random variations react more so to flops that don't pair up like 25k etc.. This makes your 4 of a kind way less likely and is essentially cheating. It's also possible to rig all game types on the machine bank or your machine in particular.. Why would they do this well maybe your to good and they just won't tolerate your action if your an advantage player with to much skill. Instead of kicking you out they just cheat and you lose everything in frustration. They won't do this to players who play badly or don't have a clue,but will initiate this action if your to good just like they will reshuffle decks to a persistent blackjack counter who isn't betting to big and will keep playing anyway and eventually lose his roll. The only defense to this is your movement hit and run never play tired and play 25 hands and move along because unless the casino is illegal they wont do this to all of the machines and to truly make it random you must randomize your play so they can't target you it's really the only way if you sit your really a sitting duck.

[slingshot]

[QUOTE=mikeisanace;44479]Casinos rig video poker machines more so than slot machines because of the hold. They do this by not pressing a magic button instead the switch game types to different random variations. The programs are jacks or better,aces and faces bonus deluxe which ever one you are playing they have cameras by the way.. The different random variations react more so to flops that don't pair up like 25k etc.. This makes your 4 of a kind way less likely and is essentially cheating. It's also possible to rig all game types on the machine bank or your machine in particular.. Why would they do this well maybe your to good and they just won't tolerate your action if your an advantage player with to much skill. Instead of kicking you out they just cheat and you lose everything in frustration. They won't do this to players who play badly or don't have a clue,but will initiate this action if your to good just like they will reshuffle decks to a persistent blackjack counter who isn't betting to big and will keep playing anyway and eventually lose his roll. The only defense to this is your movement hit and run never play tired and play 25 hands and move along because unless the casino is illegal they wont do this to all of the machines and to truly make it random you must randomize your play so they can't target you it's really the only way if you sit your really a sitting duck.[/QUOT
Am I understanding you- casinos are somehow tracking your holds and somehow changing them instead of you being in a hot/cold cycle at your lucky/unlucky session?

[seemoreroyals]

Who knows. Mikelsanace may be on to something. My wife wins far more often than I do. I play almost exclusively VP while at the casino with few if any mistakes and do not win nearly as often as she does. She plays mainly $5 and up reel slots with little if any VP from time to time. I think sometimes they see her in the camera and think, that looks like a nice person. Let me turn on the switch and give her a hand pay. And I definitely think VP is programmed for a lot of near misses to keep the game interesting. For example if I draw three 3's it is almost impossible to get the other 3 on the redraw but it is almost uncanny how many times on the next deal that one of the first 2 cards out of the shoot is a 3. So who knows.

[slingshot]

Who knows. Mikelsanace may be on to something. My wife wins far more often than I do. I play almost exclusively VP while at the casino with few if any mistakes and do not win nearly as often as she does. She plays mainly $5 and up reel slots with little if any VP from time to time. I think sometimes they see her in the camera and think, that looks like a nice person. Let me turn on the switch and give her a hand pay. And I definitely think VP is programmed for a lot of near misses to keep the game interesting. For example if I draw three 3's it is almost impossible to get the other 3 on the redraw but it is almost uncanny how many times on the next deal that one of the first 2 cards out of the shoot is a 3. So who knows.

So have you tried NOT using the players card to see if there's anything to this?

[seemoreroyals]

So have you tried NOT using the players card to see if there's anything to this?

I always play with players card in. I know many people who never play with their players cards because they think that they cannot win that way. One thing I think we can all agree on is their is a lot of luck and superstitions that go into determining how we all do in our gambling efforts.

[Alan Mendelson]

I believe in hot and cold cycles... but I believe they are random. Sometimes you get lucky and there's a hot cycle, and sometimes you're unlucky and there's a cold cycle.

There is technology today that can sense all sorts of user motions and patterns, and while they are used in smart phones and computers (it's in the Apple video editing software), it is illegal for video poker and slot machines under all regulations that I know of.

Maybe someday in the future there will be a skill game authorized by a regulating body that will allow the game to change pay patterns to reward or penalize certain play... but it ain't around now.

[jbjb]

Lay off of the smog. It's making you all delusional. There's no such thing as any of the above.

[Alan Mendelson]

Lay off of the smog. It's making you all delusional. There's no such thing as any of the above.

I'm not really sure what you are talking about. But if you happen to have a smart phone and start sending a text, it probably has the new software that will complete sentences and phrases for you. It probably has auto-correct on spelling.

We use a video editing system that makes auto adjustments and even makes auto edits (which the operator can override) and these are based on "hearing" pauses in the audio and sensing the start and stop of motion.

Many years ago I flew in the cockpit of an L-1011 which is a totally automatic plane -- from takeoff to landing -- all computer controlled. I actually sat in the pilot's seat going over the Atlantic on the way to Ethiopia (I raised the money for the relief mission and that's why I was in the cockpit). That was in 1985.

Technology is very capable of sensing how you play, how you bet. After all, that's how bots work on poker sites.

I'm not saying any slot or video poker machine has been rigged this way but there is technology to do it.

As far as hot and cold cycles go -- of course there are hot and cold cycles, but we can only see them in our rear view mirrors.

[slingshot]

I have watched it over and over-it is very real. I have walked in and played for a couple of hours and no matter how careful and precise I play, I couldn't hit s$%# . Come back the next visit and hit quads like crazy. And I know I didn' t suddenly become a genius overnight.