Rigged machines, programmed cold cycles, and server based technology??

[redietz]

I'm not really sure what you are talking about. But if you happen to have a smart phone and start sending a text, it probably has the new software that will complete sentences and phrases for you. It probably has auto-correct on spelling.

We use a video editing system that makes auto adjustments and even makes auto edits (which the operator can override) and these are based on "hearing" pauses in the audio and sensing the start and stop of motion.

Many years ago I flew in the cockpit of an L-1011 which is a totally automatic plane -- from takeoff to landing -- all computer controlled. I actually sat in the pilot's seat going over the Atlantic on the way to Ethiopia (I raised the money for the relief mission and that's why I was in the cockpit). That was in 1985.

Technology is very capable of sensing how you play, how you bet. After all, that's how bots work on poker sites.

I'm not saying any slot or video poker machine has been rigged this way but there is technology to do it.

As far as hot and cold cycles go -- of course there are hot and cold cycles, but we can only see them in our rear view mirrors.

If the tech exists, I'm sure some enterprising Native American casino is making use of it. And I think the tech exists.

The problem with thinking nothing is ever rigged is that it requires the belief that no casino anywhere has people with motive, method, and opportunity to rig anything. Since that is clearly absurd, it comes down to guesstimating whether the place you play has such people.

When you frame this as being about people and the existence of tech, rather than companies or some corporate philosophy of rigging, then your perspective can change quite a bit.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have watched it over and over-it is very real. I have walked in and played for a couple of hours and no matter how careful and precise I play, I couldn't hit s$%# . Come back the next visit and hit quads like crazy. And I know I didn' t suddenly become a genius overnight.

Did you ever think that in one session you had bad luck and in another session you had good luck? Or is there a conspiracy at work?

Gee... how many gunmen did shoot JFK?

[Alan Mendelson]

If the tech exists, I'm sure some enterprising Native American casino is making use of it. And I think the tech exists.

The problem with thinking nothing is ever rigged is that it requires the belief that no casino anywhere has people with motive, method, and opportunity to rig anything. Since that is clearly absurd, it comes down to guesstimating whether the place you play has such people.

When you frame this as being about people and the existence of tech, rather than companies or some corporate philosophy of rigging, then your perspective can change quite a bit.

So do you think this could be kept a secret? Or do the casinos kill anyone who might spill the beans?

[redietz]

So do you think this could be kept a secret? Or do the casinos kill anyone who might spill the beans?

Whenever anyone says, "How could that be a secret?" I just shrug my shoulders and ask about the NSA, which employs thousands of people, at least hundreds of whom had the security clearance and knowledge of Edward Snowden. So how did the NSA keep all of that secret for years?

Good questions. The likelihood that what the NSA does could be kept a secret for a decade seems considerably more far fetched than some Native American casino keeping it secret that they were rigging some slots.

[slingshot]

Did you ever think that in one session you had bad luck and in another session you had good luck? Or is there a conspiracy at work?

Gee... how many gunmen did shoot JFK?

Well, I realize all the arguments that have already been posted here point to the fact that hardly anyone believes in random SIMULATION that can use hot and cold cycles LEGALLY to, in the long run, affect a desired outcome. That's why short term and loss limits,IMHO, are needed to have a chance to be a consistent winner- and why maybe a $50 winner on a given day -for a 25¢ player- is alright. And of course, good and bad luck is always the factor.

[Alan Mendelson]

sling the point is simply this: can you tell when a hot cycle or a cold cycle is about to start? No. You can only tell after you had a hot or cold cycle. There isn't a message that pops up on the game screen that says: "Hot Cycle Starting" or "Cold Cycle Starting." Those "cycles" can only be reported AFTER they have taken place. Therefore, what good does it do you to even look at or believe in cycles? Since all cycles are random and the next play is as random as the play before it you have to make the bet on the next individual play as it stands on its own. (And this is why the three of us at the craps table never bet on the 11 even though the rear view mirror told us 18 elevens were thrown in a row.)

[slingshot]

sling the point is simply this: can you tell when a hot cycle or a cold cycle is about to start? No. You can only tell after you had a hot or cold cycle. There isn't a message that pops up on the game screen that says: "Hot Cycle Starting" or "Cold Cycle Starting." Those "cycles" can only be reported AFTER they have taken place. Therefore, what good does it do you to even look at or believe in cycles? Since all cycles are random and the next play is as random as the play before it you have to make the bet on the next individual play as it stands on its own. (And this is why the three of us at the craps table never bet on the 11 even though the rear view mirror told us 18 elevens were thrown in a row.)

That was dealt with in the beginning of this thread. I won't rehash old news. I wish you guys a Merry Christmas- and a Happy New Year.

[blackhole]

I know of a person years ago, that exposed the abilities of an online casino operator’s option to monitor in real time from the back-end, an actual list to the penny of winners and what they were presently playing. He then had the option to actually change on the fly payout percentages of any game while the games were actually being played in real time from the back-end with a special key-code.

This was and still is a well-known and operating today online software. It also happens to be one of the current few software companies that still excepts all USA players. All the Casinomeister sites explained away the exposed pictures of the back-end with different meanings, and insisted it was just another tin-foil conspiracy sore loser bullshit story. Of course, all pictures were deleted by affiliate site owners. (income protection at its best)

Ironically, this well-known site was shut down within weeks of the leak with no explanation.

In addition, on the bottom of these screen shots of the back-end were assorted lists of actual dollar amounts of the casinos present financial statistics. I recall them not being that impressive.

Apparently, there was a group of six online casino owners who actually came directly from the software company’s headquarters. They operated online casino s with this software out of Costa Rica, of course where regulations and regulators are nonexistent. Only this small group had this back-end key.

This doesn’t seem out of bounds when you consider what took place with billion-dollar online poker sites that were exposed.

All this appeared to be convincing at the time, but you know what they say. Believe nothing of what you hear and only half of what you see. The new addition to that saying is, whatever is posted online, believe nothing at all.

I believe it’s possible to develop software for anything and probably does exist with online casinos. Never would it happen in seriously regulated locations like Nevada. Online casinos could and do just re-brand with bad news without anyone knowing anything. If confirmed cheating and collusion by casino owners and regulators were ever confirmed in places like Las Vegas, A.C. etc., that would bring down the entire industry.

[Rob.Singer]

No "AP" would ever accept or admit to software that can manipulate vp machines in regulated and "regulated" eh-em, environments, even though it happens regularly at many (but likely not all) Indian casinos, in foreign countries, and on cruise ships. To do so would rip their theories of long-term math as it applies to vp play, to shreds, and in turn, put them into a very agitating tilt mode.

The only true fact is, we have no idea what casinos do what in Nevada, and to blindly postulate that casinos obey all vp rules because you want it to be that way, simply shows a very low level of everyday life comprehension.

[redietz]

I actually almost entirely agree with Rob on this. There is no evidence that any kind of probabilistic rigging would have a major effect on casinos and bring down the industry. To the contrary, when major casinos have been caught rigging drawings, they have been hit with fines, but they've suffered no great loss of income and no reduction in visitors.

Does anyone really think that if it came to light that various video poker machines were returning 97% instead of 99.8%, that the reputation of the casino industry would suffer such a hit that people would change their gambling and their behaviors? Do you really think an expose demonstrating rigging like that would result in casinos shutting their doors?

The idea that the Nevada Gaming Commission protects the public in any real way is an overly optimistic hope bordering on myth.

[Alan Mendelson]

The idea that the Nevada Gaming Commission protects the public in any real way is an overly optimistic hope bordering on myth.

Isn't this a bit extreme? Of course there are rules to protect the public including these three:

1. Casinos cannot install devices on slot machines to accept debit and credit cards
2. Paytables on server-controlled systems cannot be changed while players are playing and there is a "cooling off time" before paytables can be changed
3. Casinos must have cash on hand equal to the amount of chips

Those are three powerful public protection rules.

[RS__]

I agree with your last paragraph there, redeitz. The gaming comission tends to work for the casinos and against the players. This is not always the case, but dealing with gaming is more of a struggle than it should be. If something in a casino is afoul, you have to convince gaming why it was wrong and against the statutes & regulations, which can be a hassle. When in reality, it should be the other way around (IMO).....gaming should be hassling the casino if something isn't correct or appears to be incorrect.

I certainly haven't played every machine in every casino, but I have played a significant amount. I track my play (VP at least) fairly closely. And it's nice to see after a significant amount of hands played, my expected loss and the HE are pretty damn close to each other.....like within 0.2 or 0.1% of the HE.

I've only had 1 session that I suspected the game might be rigged -- where I lost almost 20% of my action over about 2500 hands. The worst it gets is typically about 10% over 2000 hands (on 9/6 JOB). Only played there once (not because of big loss), so haven't been back to play more and see if I'd keep running that bad or if it was one of those 1/10,000 things.

Casinos absolutely cheat, but, I've yet to find any evidence of video poker machines being rigged. They cheat in other ways, drawings, promotions, pit boss making up shit about when a card can be backed up in BJ or when it can't (hint: in NV, it's never), or a bunch of other stupid shit. VP machines -- nah, I ain't worried about it.

[Dan Druff]

I agree with your last paragraph there, redeitz. The gaming comission tends to work for the casinos and against the players. This is not always the case, but dealing with gaming is more of a struggle than it should be. If something in a casino is afoul, you have to convince gaming why it was wrong and against the statutes & regulations, which can be a hassle. When in reality, it should be the other way around (IMO).....gaming should be hassling the casino if something isn't correct or appears to be incorrect.

I certainly haven't played every machine in every casino, but I have played a significant amount. I track my play (VP at least) fairly closely. And it's nice to see after a significant amount of hands played, my expected loss and the HE are pretty damn close to each other.....like within 0.2 or 0.1% of the HE.

I've only had 1 session that I suspected the game might be rigged -- where I lost almost 20% of my action over about 2500 hands. The worst it gets is typically about 10% over 2000 hands (on 9/6 JOB). Only played there once (not because of big loss), so haven't been back to play more and see if I'd keep running that bad or if it was one of those 1/10,000 things.

Casinos absolutely cheat, but, I've yet to find any evidence of video poker machines being rigged. They cheat in other ways, drawings, promotions, pit boss making up shit about when a card can be backed up in BJ or when it can't (hint: in NV, it's never), or a bunch of other stupid shit. VP machines -- nah, I ain't worried about it.

Pretty much this.

BTW, a friend of mine once lost $1500 after running just $4750 in the Rio 99.96% double-double bonus VP machine. They were running 3-play at $1/credit, so it was $15 per triple-hand dealt.

So it happens.

I agree that gaming is often useless, and that casinos could likely pull the wool over their eyes if they wanted to, provided they didn't get too greedy or blatant about it.

However, I doubt that a large casino would risk its license by rigging a few VP machines. Simply not worth it. And, of course, to rig the machine, they would have to have access to the programming, or be in cahoots with a company willing to do this (and hope that the word never gets out).

Drawings and promotions are super-rigged. Some are legit, but so many of them aren't, and in fact many of them are "legally" rigged by just stacking the odds so highly in the favor of high rollers that it's almost impossible for regular Joes to win.

[RS__]

However, I doubt that a large casino would risk its license by rigging a few VP machines. Simply not worth it. And, of course, to rig the machine, they would have to have access to the programming, or be in cahoots with a company willing to do this (and hope that the word never gets out).

I somewhat agree with this. Casinos have shown time and time again not to be run by the smartest nor moral people. You're right, it doesn't make sense to risk their license on rigging a machine -- that doesn't mean they're smart enough not to do that. I've been in situations plenty of times where I'm trying to figure something out, and I think, "No way in hell would that person do this, that would just be stupid!" only to figure out, sure enough, they did it!

Greed is an interesting thing, especially by people who don't quite fully understand what they are doing. You have bean counters who do awfully horrific math then show the higher-ups a change needs to be done. For example, by changing a machine from 8/5 BP to 7/5 BP, they say you change the HE from 0.87% to 1.99%, then revenue will increase by 128% on those games! However, that's not really true. Most people probably play it so poorly they aren't giving up 0.87%, but 3%. So by knocking down the FH from 8 to 7, it's bringing the players' return down from a 3% loss to a 4% loss -- a mere 33% increase in profit (for the casino). But that's not even taking into account the loss in revenue they'd get from semi-educated gamblers who know to look for 8/5 BP instead of 7/5 BP.

When I dealt craps, one day I overheard the pit boss saying something to someone else (can't remember who, maybe another floor person or a manager of some kind). Anyway, he said there was a big problem -- the craps pit was negative for the month. He didn't know what to do -- maybe they should cut down the odds bet, or watch dealers more closely for theft, or watch out for cheaters, or....who knows what. Wanna know what really happened? A big player was in town for a few weeks, made an absolute killing, which made the craps pit negative. There was no problem -- it was simple variance. I was astounded at what was being said....I asked a few floor people about it and if he had taken the BP's big win into account, to which they'd say, "That doesn't matter. It's the entire pit that matters. And it's losing. That's a problem."


I can't remember the exact quote, but it stuck to me. It goes something like this: "I was walking down the sidewalk with my friend. We came upon a crosswalk on a one-way street. I looked both ways before crossing. My friend said, 'It's a one way street! Why'd you look that way?' " The friend insinuated because it's a one-way street, a car wouldn't be driving the wrong way.


I'm sure we can all think of at least a few examples of a corporation doing something that's just plain stupid. Perhaps Enron comes to mind. Or perhaps some multi-millionare killing his wife for the life insurance. Or a prisoner escaping from prison a few months before being let go. People do stupid stuff all the time....and just because the risk might significantly outweigh the reward, doesn't mean people aren't going to do whatever stupid thing that's set before them.


I don't think VP machines are rigged at any type of grand-scale. Perhaps there are a few rigged ones in BFE or on some indian reservation where there is little to no oversight. I just think "they wouldn't do it because it's stupid / too risky / etc." is a poor argument. I guess somewhere in there I started rambling too much. Meh, whatever.

[Alan Mendelson]

You haven't lived in NYC have you? We New Yorkers never look both ways when crossing a one way street. LOL

[Rob.Singer]

The idea that at least some vp machines aren't and would never be "rigged" part-time for fear of "major repercussions" is ludicrous. The most dangerous and only activity in this world that gets people caught is by telling too many people about a scheme and the inevitable flapping of the mouth. I believe there are some people in the casino industry who have the unique quality of getting something like this done while telling nobody. I say this with absolute certainty because I am one of these type individuals.

Anyone who thinks gamblers won't return to a casino after word getting out that they were cheating their customers, is either smoking the funny weed or drinking the silly juice. People go to Indian casinos all the time, they flock to casinos on cruise ships, and they play at online casinos regularly. This culture of serious gambling addiction (and denial, which we see here and which of course is rampant) will and does easily overcome any circumstances which might plug up their craving for casino action.

[ddb1]

Ok, ok, So I have identified my machine is hot. My trips are becoming quads, straight draws are filling in and even redraws are pairing up - all at much higher than "statistical" rates.

Now what? Increase the denomination from $1 to $2? Or even $5? Play a few more hands at $1 to see what happens? Or just go home with a $500 - $1000 win?

[slingshot]

Ok, ok, So I have identified my machine is hot. My trips are becoming quads, straight draws are filling in and even redraws are pairing up - all at much higher than "statistical" rates.

Now what? Increase the denomination from $1 to $2? Or even $5? Play a few more hands at $1 to see what happens? Or just go home with a $500 - $1000 win?

So you want to play thru a quad win????? I consider it extreme luck if more than 1 or 2 quads hit before you lose most of the profit from the first quad.

[Rob.Singer]

Of course Sling is right. And anybody who INCREASES in denomination because they're winning is an uncontrolled problem gambler anyway. It is exactly what the casinos want and expect players to do, and only weak players would ever do something as stupid as that.

[Alan Mendelson]

I hit my second $100k royal in October ($25/coin) after starting with $2500 @ $5/coin. When I worked it up to $5,000+ I switched to $25/coin and the royal hit.

When I hit my first $100k royal a year ago I played first at $25/coin, won some money, moved down to $5/coin and hit a handpay and then moved back to $25/coin for a royal.