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Thread: Baccarat and Blackjack Card Counting

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    It’s always special when alleged pro AP’s call out each other over whose bullshit really works. Got to love when they call each other frauds.

    You can’t make this shit up.
    I take exception to you calling JSTAT an AP.
    I am a card counter and not an AP such as a hole carder provided by trolls here and on the "Gambling With an Edge" (GWAE) podcast sponsored by Anthony Curtis, publisher of the Las Vegas Advisor and owner of Huntington Press. Curtis is the quarterback of casino book publishing and what he says goes. He brags about his rolodex of his major media contacts. We need to wake up and smell the flowers about Kurt, who is pushing this sneaky hole carding stuff.

    Also, I respect and love your passion of finding an advantage at slots Mickey.
    Last edited by JSTAT; 09-09-2020 at 08:28 AM.
    JSTAT on casinos, poker, and blackjack/baccarat card counting without charge. Saying what needs to said at https://twitter.com/Casino_Examiner

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by JSTAT View Post
    If you are willing to bet with your head, not over it, winning long-term at baccarat and 21 can be had via counting cards.
    My response:


  3. #23
    Originally Posted by Eliot View Post
    Originally Posted by JSTAT View Post
    If you are willing to bet with your head, not over it, winning long-term at baccarat and 21 can be had via counting cards.
    My response:

    Nice presentation Eliot, but using a linear count computer simulation (no side counts involved) can fall short of the real value. The use of Quantum Strategy (side counting) can drop the house edge even more. The EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet article you wrote in 2011 on how it can be beaten by card counting should have been noted in the video, https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/dragon-bet/. It inspired me to win at Dragon 7 consistently these days. The feeling is similar to winning at single deck blackjack in the 90's.
    Last edited by JSTAT; 09-09-2020 at 02:43 PM.
    JSTAT on casinos, poker, and blackjack/baccarat card counting without charge. Saying what needs to said at https://twitter.com/Casino_Examiner

  4. #24
    Apologies -- re-edited version. I took out the out-of-focus tables.


  5. #25
    Originally Posted by JSTAT View Post
    Nice presentation Eliot, but using a linear count computer simulation (no side counts involved) can fall short of the real value. The use of Quantum Strategy (side counting) can drop the house edge even more. The EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet article you wrote in 2011 on how it can be beaten by card counting should have been noted in the video, https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/dragon-bet/. It inspired me to win at Dragon 7 consistently these days. The feeling is similar to winning at single deck blackjack in the 90's.
    It doesn't matter what count you use, how many side bets you use, if you're using hundredth-digit decimal tags or if you use a Quantum computer. You can't do better than perfect play. Repeat that do yourself and learn a little. No card counting system can perform better than computer-perfect play.

    In baccarat, computer-perfect play amounts to winning pennies per hour in the long run with a $1000 wager every day or two. If you're doing that, I pity you.
    Last edited by Eliot; 09-09-2020 at 03:25 PM.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Eliot View Post
    Originally Posted by JSTAT View Post
    Originally Posted by Eliot View Post
    My response:

    Nice presentation Eliot, but using a linear count computer simulation (no side counts involved) can fall short of the real value. The use of Quantum Strategy (side counting) can drop the house edge even more. The EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet article you wrote in 2011 on how it can be beaten by card counting should have been noted in the video, https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/dragon-bet/. It inspired me to win at Dragon 7 consistently these days. The feeling is similar to winning at single deck blackjack in the 90's.
    It doesn't matter what count you use, how many side bets you use, if you're using hundredth-digit decimal tags or if you use a Quantum computer. You can't do better than perfect play. Repeat that do yourself and learn a little. No card counting system can perform better than computer-perfect play.

    In baccarat, computer-perfect play amounts to winning pennies per hour in the long run with a $1000 wager every day or two. If you're doing that, I pity you.
    Computer simulation of perfect play can be wrong. Depends on the programmer. Never trusted them after Braun fumbled the computer analysis of the High-Low count for "Beat the Dealer" in 1966. If your computer simulator sims are correct, print out every hand indicating every card played. I'll pay for the paper, expenses, etc. Love to see you use your math skills instead of relying on a machine that can be faulty. Math>Computer simulation
    JSTAT on casinos, poker, and blackjack/baccarat card counting without charge. Saying what needs to said at https://twitter.com/Casino_Examiner

  7. #27
    Originally Posted by JSTAT View Post
    Computer simulation of perfect play can be wrong. Depends on the programmer. Never trusted them after Braun fumbled the computer analysis of the High-Low count for "Beat the Dealer" in 1966. If your computer simulator sims are correct, print out every hand indicating every card played. I'll pay for the paper, expenses, etc. Love to see you use your math skills instead of relying on a machine that can be faulty. Math>Computer simulation
    So, you are accusing me of incompetence in defense of your card counting system. Very clever tactic. Accuse the guy who was a professor of Mathematics and Computer Science of incompetence. Accuse them all of incompetence ... Grosjean, Shackleford, Thorp, Braun, etc. You are the one who has it right. You, the one who has never written a computer program, who barely knows how to multiply two numbers, who longs for attention and recognition for a single contribution above all other things, despite your gross ignorance.

    My video says everything I want to say to rebut your claims -- that is, unless you want to put $10M on deposit so I can print out (paper, as you requested) the 200M pages of data that support my result. Hey, only 5 cents per page! If you had any sense, you would have asked to audit my code and I would have gladly provided it, free, and about 5 pages long. But that didn't occur to you. You just asked for the output.
    Last edited by Eliot; 09-09-2020 at 03:57 PM.

  8. #28
    Just another guy looking for attention with a worthless system while simultaneously trying to detract from the experts. As I said previously, he's been doing this for over 10 years.

    Mdawg has more credibility.

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Just another guy looking for attention with a worthless system while simultaneously trying to detract from the experts. As I said previously, he's been doing this for over 10 years.

    Mdawg has more credibility.
    Mdawg has negative credibility, so that is saying a lot. The question I have is why someone who obviously understands what card counting is about would make a case for a worthless card counting system and push it for a decade. There is this almost criminally insane need for recognition for something meaningful to have happened in his life. But sadly, his one idea is wrong and he doesn't have a second idea. It is just so very pathetic.

  10. #30
    A word from the casino industrial complex.

    Originally Posted by Eliot View Post
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Just another guy looking for attention with a worthless system while simultaneously trying to detract from the experts. As I said previously, he's been doing this for over 10 years.

    Mdawg has more credibility.
    Mdawg has negative credibility, so that is saying a lot. The question I have is why someone who obviously understands what card counting is about would make a case for a worthless card counting system and push it for a decade. There is this almost criminally insane need for recognition for something meaningful to have happened in his life. But sadly, his one idea is wrong and he doesn't have a second idea. It is just so very pathetic.
    JSTAT on casinos, poker, and blackjack/baccarat card counting without charge. Saying what needs to said at https://twitter.com/Casino_Examiner

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by JSTAT View Post
    A word from the casino industrial complex.
    Is that the best shot you can take? Put something false in bold? I am retired. I make $0 from anything to do with casinos. I don't care about anything but the truth.

    What you decided to add to this debate is your delusional assertion that on top of incompetence I am now part of a massive conspiracy to create intellectual property to prove you wrong?

    You are one sad fuck.

  12. #32
    If his count really worked, his best bet would be to keep quiet instead of starting this nonsense every so often. That fact that he attacks the truth and calls them frauds should really be a tell to his motives.

    I say again, I seriously think he's a casino shill attempting to get others to lose faster.

  13. #33
    JSTAT, for 10+ years you have made claims about your JSTAT count. First it was blackjack. I didn't have a problem with you re-labeling and playing a count...whatever count you wanted. I did have a problem with your claims that only your count worked that all other counts, including hi-lo were frauds and players couldn't make money, despite the math and many players experiences to the contrary. Later you disappeared from blackjack forums and started touting your same count as a miracle answer to baccarat. I don't play or know much about baccarat, so I never said a word about that. I have let those that do know (like Eliot), debunk you.

    So here is my question for you and I don't mean this as putdown. How much money have you made from card counting, both blackjack and baccarat over the last 10 years? I mean, I nor anyone else knows, so to start we will take you at your word. Have you made a living from this miraculous count that is able to beat blackjack (when all other counts can't) and now able to beat baccarat over the last 10 years or have you made a living collecting a paycheck delivering mail and other postman duties?? Again, that is not a putdown. A postal career is fine (as long as one doesn't go postal). But it isn't all that credible that you had the keys to the kingdom, you found the holy grail and yet, for the last 10 years, have gotten up at 5am to deliver mail. I assume you are retired now....and congrats on that if you are....are you now playing fulltime and making serious money? Again, I am trusting you to be honest. That is all we can go by for now.

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    JSTAT, for 10+ years you have made claims about your JSTAT count. First it was blackjack. I didn't have a problem with you re-labeling and playing a count...whatever count you wanted. I did have a problem with your claims that only your count worked that all other counts, including hi-lo were frauds and players couldn't make money, despite the math and many players experiences to the contrary. Later you disappeared from blackjack forums and started touting your same count as a miracle answer to baccarat. I don't play or know much about baccarat, so I never said a word about that. I have let those that do know (like Eliot), debunk you.

    So here is my question for you and I don't mean this as putdown. How much money have you made from card counting, both blackjack and baccarat over the last 10 years? I mean, I nor anyone else knows, so to start we will take you at your word. Have you made a living from this miraculous count that is able to beat blackjack (when all other counts can't) and now able to beat baccarat over the last 10 years or have you made a living collecting a paycheck delivering mail and other postman duties?? Again, that is not a putdown. A postal career is fine (as long as one doesn't go postal). But it isn't all that credible that you had the keys to the kingdom, you found the holy grail and yet, for the last 10 years, have gotten up at 5am to deliver mail. I assume you are retired now....and congrats on that if you are....are you now playing fulltime and making serious money? Again, I am trusting you to be honest. That is all we can go by for now.
    The Hi-Lo Count lacked insurance protection due its counting the ace as an high card. An ace is a low card in real world insurance counting. According to Don Schlesinger's Illustrious 18, the insurance bet is ranked #1. Taking this advice can devastate a bankroll. But more importantly, the ignoring of 8/9's can also sink it. Did not discover the 8/9 side bet until 2008, when Braun admitted leaving an excess of them during computer simulations, therefore ruining the true result of the Hi-Lo Count. Found his book at a local bookstore back then. Here are some of my pictures proving side counting of 8/9's are likely beneficial to Hi-Lo players from the Twitter account I manage. https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1273342141696053248

    Being a postal worker (Arnold Snyder was one) was secure employment after noticing a lack of job security in the casino industry. Being a Letter Carrier can be stressful at times and about 4 times a year, I'd go to Reno or Lake Tahoe casinos and win $1000-$5000 playing blackjack. Someone had to pay for the stress, and the casino industry did. I retired from the USPS in 2009. My story and count below with a side count of aces that beat Nevada casinos in the 90's.



    I've been playing EZ Baccarat since 2014. Card counting the Dragon side bet (40-1 payout) with success. I'm making $25 bets on the Dragon 7 when the counts are right. Usually leave the table with a $600-$1000 win. Leaving the table after one big hit will not faze the pit. No heat at baccarat which is a great change from blackjack pit bosses sweating the money. I used to hit the casinos before this pandemic hit. Can't wait to get back on the saddle. Thanks for the questions KJ
    JSTAT on casinos, poker, and blackjack/baccarat card counting without charge. Saying what needs to said at https://twitter.com/Casino_Examiner

  15. #35
    Ok well you didn't exactly provide a hard, solid number for results that I was looking for, so I am going to try to dig a little for it. So prior to you retiring from the USPS in 2009, you played blackjack 4 times a year, making $1000-$5000 per trip. I am going to split it right down the middle. You averaged $3000 win per trip or $12,000 win a year for 10 years? Is that right? I mean blackjack is about long-term results, and that is what I am trying to establish. Did you make over 100k total in those 10 years?? 12k a year for 10 years =$120,000? That would be a good solid supplemental income from which to base your claims. I will wait for a confirmation before I go any further.

    Also would like confirmation about your baccarat play. You started playing in 2014, after you were already retired. What quantity of play are we talking? still several trips a year, or more since you are retired?

    I am sure you and others can see where I am going with this. I am trying to establish sample size of amount of play for your claims.

    I'll be honest. What it feels like to me is claims based on a small sample size, similar to the claims that Tthree (who I am sure you and other blackjack guys know of) back on Norm's forum 5-6 years ago. The claims were quite fantastic and turns out based on a small and insignificant sample size. As time went on and he got to a bigger sample size, even he admitted the results came back down to reality, more in line with what the math said it would be. The math never lies....LONGTERM. So I just want to be sure that a small sample size is not what we are dealing with here.

    And no offense, but you ought to be able to give a hard, solid number of results, rather than I made $1000-$5000 per trip. That is too vague. reminds me of my grandfather when I would ask how he did betting horses over his life. His answer would be "about even", when of course he wasn't. Somebody taking their gambling seriously as you have done with all your videos and time put in, ought to have a very definitive number to give as far as results.

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Since you’re a pro maybe you could explain to me (and maybe others) how one of our top BJ card counters on this site known as the anonymous Kiwlj is capable of pulling off his alleged anonymous claims for over 15 years. He alleges he has been counting cards (sometimes two tables at once when possible) for 15 years with an average of 100K+ profit per year. Not that 100K is any serious sum of money when considering an annual salary. Yet he claims he does this without ever presenting id or casino cards. I could only imagine how many times over 15 years the pit asked him if he wanted to get rated. If he makes a quick suspicious hit early and the pit is coming towards him, he claims he picks up his shit and walks fast away from the table. Trust me when I say I’m only scratching the surface of his absurd past tactics and claims. Without getting into other absurd claims of his, do you think this is even possible in Las Vegas?
    Mr. Elliot,

    Could you please respond with an opinion to my above curiosity? As you could also see KJ will enter every BJ discussion or argument and always makes a personal case.

    If you need more of his tactics or claims of his past road to success, I’ll be happy to attempt to glance over all the bullshit he has printed over the years and expose even more.

    It would be nice to get an expert’s opinion once and for all.

  17. #37
    While responding to Eliot’s response to my question in above post directed to him about KJ, his entire response disappeared without a trace before I had a chance to finish.

    He started out with the ole he didn’t understand what I was asking. But, went on to say in so many words that KJ’s tactics fall in the realm of reality.

    I’m assuming after he thought about it his posted / removed response could have been done for what I think would have been obvious to anyone with a brain.

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Since you’re a pro maybe you could explain to me (and maybe others) how one of our top BJ card counters on this site known as the anonymous Kiwlj is capable of pulling off his alleged anonymous claims for over 15 years. He alleges he has been counting cards (sometimes two tables at once when possible) for 15 years with an average of 100K+ profit per year. Not that 100K is any serious sum of money when considering an annual salary. Yet he claims he does this without ever presenting id or casino cards. I could only imagine how many times over 15 years the pit asked him if he wanted to get rated. If he makes a quick suspicious hit early and the pit is coming towards him, he claims he picks up his shit and walks fast away from the table. Trust me when I say I’m only scratching the surface of his absurd past tactics and claims. Without getting into other absurd claims of his, do you think this is even possible in Las Vegas?
    Mr. Elliot,

    Could you please respond with an opinion to my above curiosity? As you could also see KJ will enter every BJ discussion or argument and always makes a personal case.

    If you need more of his tactics or claims of his past road to success, I’ll be happy to attempt to glance over all the bullshit he has printed over the years and expose even more.

    It would be nice to get an expert’s opinion once and for all.
    Nothing about what KJ claims to be his methods and results raises any reason to doubt him. I've known many other AP's with similar life stories. KJ's obsession and history with message boards and his battles with various posters is his own personal demon, one I don't want to address.

    So please, I don't want to arbitrate a personal dispute.
    Last edited by Eliot; 09-10-2020 at 08:16 AM.

  19. #39
    I appreciate you deciding to remain neutral instead of being dishonest. The key word in your above post "Stories"

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Since you’re a pro maybe you could explain to me (and maybe others) how one of our top BJ card counters on this site known as the anonymous Kiwlj is capable of pulling off his alleged anonymous claims for over 15 years. He alleges he has been counting cards (sometimes two tables at once when possible) for 15 years with an average of 100K+ profit per year. Not that 100K is any serious sum of money when considering an annual salary. Yet he claims he does this without ever presenting id or casino cards. I could only imagine how many times over 15 years the pit asked him if he wanted to get rated. If he makes a quick suspicious hit early and the pit is coming towards him, he claims he picks up his shit and walks fast away from the table. Trust me when I say I’m only scratching the surface of his absurd past tactics and claims. Without getting into other absurd claims of his, do you think this is even possible in Las Vegas?
    Mr. Elliot,

    Could you please respond with an opinion to my above curiosity? As you could also see KJ will enter every BJ discussion or argument and always makes a personal case.

    If you need more of his tactics or claims of his past road to success, I’ll be happy to attempt to glance over all the bullshit he has printed over the years and expose even more.

    It would be nice to get an expert’s opinion once and for all.
    Blackhole, just STFU. You will only consider Eliot (you can't even get his name right) and expert if he says what you want him to say. There have been several blackjack experts that have come to this forum because I was here to join in discussion and people like you always drive them away. And what I am describing as 'expert' is people that play or have played the game for a living for a number of years. These are the people that know what it takes to win and how to apply what it takes to win and still be welcome to play. No offense to Eliot, but I don't consider his expertise in application of blackjack advantage play. I consider his expertise in the math part of the game and to a lesser extent on getting casinos to stop blackjack advantage play. And that won't change regardless of his opinion of my play.

    You want an expert opinion on advantage play. read what mickey wrote recently. I don't like much of what comes out of mickey's mouth these days. I don't think there is a need to say most of what he opines or the need to say things in the vulgar way that he does. But when it comes to advantage play, Mickey Crimm is an expert, even in areas that he might not play or specialize in. So you aren't looking for an "expert opinion" blackhole, you are hoping for someone to say what you want them to say. If they do, you will hold them up as an expert opinion. If they don't you will dismiss them.

    Here is the fact that you and Singer and a couple others just can't accept. I play blackjack for a living, now in my 16th year, using very simple techniques. Nothing earth shattering, nothing new. Simple old school blackjack card counting. I play moderate stakes and short sessions which allows me to minimize attention. By nature that is going to minimize the really big wins in one sitting that draw attention and that pit folks have to answer for. I have made my priority playing levels and an approach that is better tolerated.

    You dislike me, because of other reasons that you are so desperate to find someone to express a negative opinion that you are embarrassing yourself. If you are happy with life, have been as successful as you claim in life, are happy with your recreational gambling experiences, then act like it instead of always acting like someone envious.

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