Originally Posted by
jpfromla
Add to Taiwan...it was more than mandating masks...
They shut down flights from Wuhan to Taiwan on Dec. 29 and reported what they were seeing to the WHO, to no effect ( WHO does not recognize Taiwan). When you arrived by air or boat in Taiwan you are automatically quarantined for 14 days. They have a special Uber just for that purpose- airport straight to your house stay. They give you a location app on your phone to track that you are in your quarantine location. Someone checks on you each day, all 14 days. If you not there.... $10,000 fine. Also, it helps that Taiwan is an island, so they were able to control the ins and outs. Yes, they learned big time 18 years ago. When you arrive to passport control at the international airport, there’s a nursing temperature station check for all passengers. If you light up you don’t get to passport control. I’ve passed the temperature check many times.
I agree with your comments except for the “island / moat” argument. New Zealand got reoccurring cases due to international travel / trade, etc. so the island argument is no longer valid.
But my argument still stands about comparing actual results to expectations: When you drive a car, you have expectations of an accident and you cannot escape these expectations. So we compare those with zero accidents over 60,000 miles in a past 5 years against the other end with those who have 10 accidents over the same 60,000 miles in 5 years. Clearly, those with zero accidents are “safer” drivers, other things being equal.
So we compare expectations for both Sweden & Taiwan.
Which country is closer to Wuhun, mainland China? It’s Taiwan
Which country had direct / non-stop flights to Wuhan? It’s Taiwan
Which country has a higher population density per square mile? It’s Taiwan.
Taiwan has 673 people per square kilometer vs Sweden at 25 per squared kilometer. Population density is important due to mass infection rates experienced in New York City, cities in northern Italy, etc
I could go on and on about what factors / questions that highlight expectations.
The bottomline is based on expectations, Taiwan was supposed to perform a lot worse than Sweden. Instead, Taiwan easily beat expectations while Sweden did horribly versus expectations. You need to judge actual results against expectations. This is a fundamental rule in statistical analysis.