Don’t Trust slotloser FKA FreeplayAP when it comes to (VP) Math or Probabilities

[Ex-AP]

Mickey Crimm the homeless change thief turned Scavenger and AP wannabe made this tweet:

“6/5 Bonus Poker is a 96.87% game. Royal odds are 40,236. Sequential odds are 120 X 40,236 = 4,828,320. Reversible Sequential is half that, 2,414,160. A $150,000 one-way sequential adds 2.4%, reversible adds 4.8%. So either 99.27% or 101.67%.“

Anyone with high enough IQ will spot MC’s mistake: probability of a $150K STF > probability of $1K RF. MC in his dumb analysis claims the probability of any RF (inclusive of SRF) is identical and this is patently false.

FreeAP clearly doesn’t have enough IQ points in either logic or probabilities since he missed MC’s glaring error based on FreeAP’s tweet:

“And some people think you don’t understand the math“

So it’s clear to everyone in my network FreeAP is more fiction than reality.

If you had used functions:
Y(1) = Beta1*(RF) + Beta2*(SF) + Beta3*(Quads) * Beta4*(FH) + Beta5*(FL) + Beta6*(ST) + Beta7*(Trips) + Beta8*(2 Pair) + Beta9*(Hi Pair)

You would get Y(1) to be 96.8687% and you can confirm this with Wizard of Odds
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video...s/bonus-poker/

Once you confirm the base function is correct, then you adjust the function for the SRF.

For the record, as I have been saying, MC is not an AP and cannot do AP-level math.

The correct answer for the 2-way SRF $150K+ Jackpot is over 104%, much higher than dumb MC’s assertion of 101.67%. MC was WAY OFF as expected of a hicktard trying be an AP.

My estimate was roughly 6% higher than base of 96.87% so I got 102.87%, which is still wrong but not as bad as MC’s 101.67% number. I can’t code so I had to create algorithms and use Newtonian approximation so I was using an estimate and needed to adjust for convexity.

Btw, Effen got the correct answer via an VP analyzer (e.g. coding):
“The ROI with perfect play is 104.02%, but the variance is 9869.44 versus just 21.28 for ordinary 6/5 BP. Still, many professional APs have a big enough bankroll to take a shot at this. The problem is that a nickel a hand is often not worth it to the APs who can afford the variance.“
Source: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...royal-jackpot/

Moral of the post: Don’t drink Mickey Crimm’s kool aid.

And 3 ... 2 ... 1 watch MC and MC fantards post in response.

[Prozema]

Maybe I'm not following correctly. Is this the paytable you are talking about?

[mickeycrimm]

Hey, ex-crement! You’ve climbed out from under your rock again. Effen was to late, baby cakes. Tableplay put the answer up here weeks ago. He informed me that Frugal Video Poker has a sequential royal function. It’s buried up to where I didn’t know it was there. I found it and ran the play. Do you have FVP, ex-crement? No, you don’t. And it’s no longer on the market, not that you can afford it.

It must have been very embarrassing to you that you were exposed for not being able to do a simple keno math problem. I gave you ample time. You ran and hid like a little girl. You use words like “stochastic” and “heuristics” to try to make people think you have an elevated understanding of gambling math. But you couldn’t even do a simple keno math problem. Lol!

It’s more than coincidence that I put those videos up on twitter today then you came firing with this thread. You hang on my every word. Your silence on the keno math problem was golden. If you could have solved it you would have just to rub my nose in it. But you couldn’t do the math. So you stuck your head in the sand hoping it would go away. It’s a monument to your cowardice.

PS: Effen was also wrong on the reasons pros didn’t go after the sequential. No AP worth his salt plays for jackpots where the jackpot odds are 3 million to 1.

[Prozema]

[Prozema]

So I guess the only questions I have left is 1) what is the meter speed and 2) how long will it take me to play 1.5M hands?

[jbjb]

To put it in perspective, we never played the jackpot progressive on 3CP (AKQ spades to win) when that was +EV. Even at only 1 in 22,100 odds, the variance just makes it a waste of time.

[jbjb]

Just because something is +EV, doesn't mean it's worthwhile to play. PowerBall and Mega-Millions can be prime examples.

[tableplay]

Just because something is +EV, doesn't mean it's worthwhile to play. PowerBall and Mega-Millions can be prime examples.

Here's an analogy I like: Imagine a roulette wheel with a billion to the billionth power numbers (slot gaps). You get a payout of 1 trillion to the trillionth to the trillionth power to 1 if your spot hits. The only rule is you can only bet on 1 spot (and only one player can play at a time). The game has an absurd player edge, but you will never hit your spot in the lifetime of the universe.

[mcap]

To put it in perspective, we never played the jackpot progressive on 3CP (AKQ spades to win) when that was +EV. Even at only 1 in 22,100 odds, the variance just makes it a waste of time.

Why would you play that game anyway unless you’re getting multiple cards I’d just wait for them to go to a worthwhile game.

[jbjb]

To put it in perspective, we never played the jackpot progressive on 3CP (AKQ spades to win) when that was +EV. Even at only 1 in 22,100 odds, the variance just makes it a waste of time.

Why would you play that game anyway unless you’re getting multiple cards I’d just wait for them to go to a worthwhile game.

You dont know how to gain an edge at 3CP?

[mcap]

I’m saying one card poker isn’t worthwhile either.

[jbjb]

I’m saying one card poker isn’t worthwhile either.

Considering other games, correct.

[Prozema]

1.5M / 700 hands an hour (I'm kinda slow) is 2,142 hours... Better take a nap before I start... That's like 3 months. (BetaX)

[13BucksanHourAP]

Freeplay AP just tweeted he's made $200K on Hexy Cats.

I'll bet my entire net worth on the under.

[mickeycrimm]

Freeplay AP just tweeted he's made $200K on Hexy Cats.

I'll bet my entire net worth on the under.

I seen that. The game has been out for only about a year.