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Thread: Blog Still Running; Still Accurate

  1. #1
    For those who haven't read it, my blog pivoted to coronavirus back in March, and it's been accurate. Among the first entries, long before any national media had anything to say on it, I predicted that due to the way the virus exploded in Iran and Italy that it had to be either asymptomatically transmitted or airborne. The word "asymptomatic" had not yet entered the public lexicon.

    The blog has gotten almost all of the numbers more or less correct as predictions were evaluated. It has predicted the course and consequences of the virus for the last eight months. It's sometimes hard to tell, as the past under high stress tends to blur, but if you go back and synch up the blog entries, comparing them to what was nationally available in the media, I was days and sometimes weeks ahead of the curve on virtually everything.

    Rather than sit and respond to the nonsense some folks are posting here, I recommend people read the blog entries. With the election just weeks away, I will hopefully have less to write about in the days ahead, although there are a couple of topics I'll tackle between now and the election.

    The blog foresaw the differential infection rates based on population density and family dwelling square footage before anybody had mentioned it in the national media. It called out the early opening governors and predicted infection numbers.

    When Hope Hicks was announced as positive, I said that Trump was probably positive already and it was cover. I got almost everything correct, and it wasn't all that difficult.

    Recently, I tackled some very politically incorrect stuff and make some observations you won't find in polite company. The blog generates no income. Zero. No ads, no links, no money for clicks. It is completely uncommercial. As an added bonus -- LOL -- it alienates most people who bet sports.

    Here's a wicked piece about a subject nobody tackles:

    https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...s-are-fat.html


    Hunker down, folks. The second surge starts in about a week.

  2. #2
    You seem to get a lot of joy that a lot of what you predicted is true. Almost like you take some sick satisfaction that all this is happening/happened....why is that?

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Keystone View Post
    You seem to get a lot of joy that a lot of what you predicted is true. Almost like you take some sick satisfaction that all this is happening/happened....why is that?
    Because his life hasn't amounted to shit and he takes joy in the misfortune of others. Maybe?

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Keystone View Post
    You seem to get a lot of joy that a lot of what you predicted is true. Almost like you take some sick satisfaction that all this is happening/happened....why is that?
    Why do you think so many people take joy in denying so many aspects of this virus? It is like the deaths that do happen don't matter?
    Grandpa Newell is the GOAT

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    Originally Posted by Keystone View Post
    You seem to get a lot of joy that a lot of what you predicted is true. Almost like you take some sick satisfaction that all this is happening/happened....why is that?
    Because his life hasn't amounted to shit and he takes joy in the misfortune of others. Maybe?
    IMO it is all a semi-troll. Given how over the top some of the reactions are around here towards redietz it really makes it funny in a way only trolls understand. I sometimes agree with redietz - not because I particularly care about redietz one way or another - I just find it funny.

    And yes I am a troll and yes I'm not always trolling. If you can't figure out when I have my troll mask on vs my sincere mask... well thats part of the fun for us trolls. Not sure what redietz's objective is, but he's a pretty good troll inadvertent or not.
    Grandpa Newell is the GOAT

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by Keystone View Post
    You seem to get a lot of joy that a lot of what you predicted is true. Almost like you take some sick satisfaction that all this is happening/happened....why is that?
    Why do you think so many people take joy in denying so many aspects of this virus? It is like the deaths that do happen don't matter?
    Maybe people just have varying opinions and levels of fear about it is all...you certainly can’t believe everything you’ve heard or read to be accurate without reasonable doubt do you?....and of course I realize people have died from this, but me personally, I’m gonna take a 98% survival rate as opposed to stopping my life and not going out and making money for me and mine....there’s a greater chance of death for me hopping on an L.A. freeway every morning

  7. #7
    Beware any advice on coronavirus from known quack Robert Dietz. Mr. Dietz is not a scientist nor a doctor. Reading anything he disseminates on Covid should be discouraged. His non-expert opinions can only be harmful to the public as they are not coming from the scientific community but rather from a Marxist propagandist with a penchant for quackery.
    All you "wokes" beware. The first to the revolution are the second to the guillotine.

  8. #8
    According to Comrade Dietz areas where Covid cases remained low despite no shutdowns was due to variance and areas where Covid cases ran high despite shutdowns was due to bad policy. They don’t call him Robert “The Quack” Dietz for nothing.
    All you "wokes" beware. The first to the revolution are the second to the guillotine.

  9. #9
    Mickey no one but you calls him a quack. He’s not a doctor, he’s probably a scamdicapper. Maybe not, but you don’t run around with a bunch of assclowns (like Marc Lawrence tipsters and gypsters etc) and not expect to get called an assclown yourself.
    Last edited by mcap; 10-15-2020 at 06:31 AM.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Beware any advice on coronavirus from known quack Robert Dietz. Mr. Dietz is not a scientist nor a doctor. Reading anything he disseminates on Covid should be discouraged. His non-expert opinions can only be harmful to the public as they are not coming from the scientific community but rather from a Marxist propagandist with a penchant for quackery.

    Mickey's absolutely correct. I'm a professional handicapper and gambler. No particular scientific training at all, other than a general science minor as an addition to my writing degree. That's kind of the point. Anybody could do what I did.

    All of my predictions and conclusions were derived from simply listening to experts and thinking logically. Following international experts at the beginning was very helpful -- for example, watching interviews with the head of the South Korea infectious disease institute, their Fauci equivalent, who was ready to retire until covid popped up. None of what I had to say was rocket science. Anybody could have done it, which is my point. It's horrific that anti-science somehow overrode obvious, clear scientific recommendations for tens of millions of Americans.

    In the blog, I'm always pointing out how respected science was when I was growing up during the Apollo program. Conspiracy junk in the United States came later. This pandemic has underlined how poorly many Americans grasp core attributes of science. Anyone with any background in science should have been able to see through the junk science fueled by political motivations. But evidently tens of millions of Americans cannot.

    And by the way, when mickey makes particular claims regarding what I've said, if he doesn't use direct quotes from me, there are reasons. He's paraphrasing for his own ends, just making stuff up. If he doesn't use direct quotes, it's garbage.

    Anyone who listened to mickey or other anti-science guys on this forum would have been horribly misinformed, like when mickey didn't debunk the tweet saying that U.S. deaths were somehow lower this year than in years past, which was complete nonsense. It was an outright lie. Yet mickey won't acknowledge that he supported dangerous, inaccurate, completely false information. He hasn't broached the fact that, by supporting that tweet, he was absolutely, utterly wrong about a core fact. Or he knew better and supported the tweet, anyway. He never returns to the subject. He just ignores his own dangerous culpability and blithely continues his half cocked anti-science arguments.

    Anyone reading mickey and others' junk on this forum would be horribly misinformed, as in the "fewer U.S. deaths in 2020" claim. I was the only one who challenged that completely false bunk. If I didn't post here, people may have swallowed it hook, line, and sinker.

  11. #11
    It’s scientists fault if science is not as respected as it once was, similar to journalism. Scientific journals and publications that were once about impartial data and reporting have become overtly political which has eroded public trust in them. They’ve also increasingly become reliant on using acronym jargon for everything where interested semi intelligent non scientists would be able to grasp the concepts they’re explaining if written in plain language. Instead they’re now often written with so many acronyms and jargon that they can only intended to be read by their own echo chamber.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    It’s scientists fault if science is not as respected as it once was, similar to journalism. Scientific journals and publications that were once about impartial data and reporting have become overtly political which has eroded public trust in them. They’ve also increasingly become reliant on using acronym jargon for everything where interested semi intelligent non scientists would be able to grasp the concepts they’re explaining if written in plain language. Instead they’re now often written with so many acronyms and jargon that they can only intended to be read by their own echo chamber.
    No.

    This is what you've been told.

    Originally with Trump - it was that the media constantly lies (some truth to that) and all this fake news. Thats how Trump operates and those who worship him give it not a shred of critical thought. Now Trump and co. have moved on to trying to claim scientists are giving out fake science.

    Anyone who uses critical thought and not consumed by some cult-like biases can see this.

    No one knew how covid would play out. Science is what we currently know and is continually refined. There are things science believes that are wrong - but guess what - it is still a large improvement over not having science.

    This has been the tactic of the President and his people for some time. It really really isn't good for this country.
    Grandpa Newell is the GOAT

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Beware any advice on coronavirus from known quack Robert Dietz. Mr. Dietz is not a scientist nor a doctor. Reading anything he disseminates on Covid should be discouraged. His non-expert opinions can only be harmful to the public as they are not coming from the scientific community but rather from a Marxist propagandist with a penchant for quackery.
    Mickey's absolutely correct. I'm a professional handicapper and gambler. No particular scientific training at all, other than a general science minor as an addition to my writing degree. That's kind of the point. Anybody could do what I did.

    All of my predictions and conclusions were derived from simply listening to experts and thinking logically. Following international experts at the beginning was very helpful -- for example, watching interviews with the head of the South Korea infectious disease institute, their Fauci equivalent, who was ready to retire until covid popped up. None of what I had to say was rocket science. Anybody could have done it, which is my point. It's horrific that anti-science somehow overrode obvious, clear scientific recommendations for tens of millions of Americans.

    In the blog, I'm always pointing out how respected science was when I was growing up during the Apollo program. Conspiracy junk in the United States came later. This pandemic has underlined how poorly many Americans grasp core attributes of science. Anyone with any background in science should have been able to see through the junk science fueled by political motivations. But evidently tens of millions of Americans cannot.

    And by the way, when mickey makes particular claims regarding what I've said, if he doesn't use direct quotes from me, there are reasons. He's paraphrasing for his own ends, just making stuff up. If he doesn't use direct quotes, it's garbage.

    Anyone who listened to mickey or other anti-science guys on this forum would have been horribly misinformed, like when mickey didn't debunk the tweet saying that U.S. deaths were somehow lower this year than in years past, which was complete nonsense. It was an outright lie. Yet mickey won't acknowledge that he supported dangerous, inaccurate, completely false information. He hasn't broached the fact that, by supporting that tweet, he was absolutely, utterly wrong about a core fact. Or he knew better and supported the tweet, anyway. He never returns to the subject. He just ignores his own dangerous culpability and blithely continues his half cocked anti-science arguments.

    Anyone reading mickey and others' junk on this forum would be horribly misinformed, as in the "fewer U.S. deaths in 2020" claim. I was the only one who challenged that completely false bunk. If I didn't post here, people may have swallowed it hook, line, and sinker.
    Quack. Quack. Quack. Red, you remind me of a mallard duck. Quack. Quack. Quack.
    All you "wokes" beware. The first to the revolution are the second to the guillotine.

  14. #14
    So there was an overall death increase of 11.3% through the 40th week of 2019 versus the 40th week of 2020 (data through the 40th week of 2020 is all that is available on the CDC website):
    11.3%=(2,427,881-2,181,412)/2,181,412

    Why would anyone think that shutting the whole fucking economy down wouldn't have some sort of consequences to the death rate ? Even the JAMA article states that one third of the excess deaths (11.3% through week 40 of the years 2019 and 2020 using CDC data) are not from Covid. For the remaining two-thirds of excess deaths, note that if a person tests positive for Covid they are marked as a Covid death.

    I should not have posted Sarah Hucklebee's tweet - I was wrong to do so. The CDC data and the CDC Covid death tallying protocol are sufficient for driving home the point that not locking everything down was and is the lesser of two evils.

    The majority of working Americans are in low risk age categories for Covid. Yet the lockdowns affect this entire low-risk group in a devastating manner.Name:  cdc_source_data.jpg
Views: 77
Size:  285.9 KBName:  cdc_source_data.jpg
Views: 77
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    Last edited by tableplay; 10-15-2020 at 07:09 PM.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    It’s scientists fault if science is not as respected as it once was, similar to journalism. Scientific journals and publications that were once about impartial data and reporting have become overtly political which has eroded public trust in them. They’ve also increasingly become reliant on using acronym jargon for everything where interested semi intelligent non scientists would be able to grasp the concepts they’re explaining if written in plain language. Instead they’re now often written with so many acronyms and jargon that they can only intended to be read by their own echo chamber.
    No.

    This is what you've been told.

    Originally with Trump - it was that the media constantly lies (some truth to that) and all this fake news. Thats how Trump operates and those who worship him give it not a shred of critical thought. Now Trump and co. have moved on to trying to claim scientists are giving out fake science.

    Anyone who uses critical thought and not consumed by some cult-like biases can see this.

    No one knew how covid would play out. Science is what we currently know and is continually refined. There are things science believes that are wrong - but guess what - it is still a large improvement over not having science.

    This has been the tactic of the President and his people for some time. It really really isn't good for this country.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d415...&sf238763395=1

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...es-joe-biden1/

    It's also actually happening. This is a scientific journal outright telling you that it will be becoming more and more politics based. I agree it's not good for people not to trust science. Which is why they should stick to the fucking science in their published journals. Nowhere did I say that the science is fake you just made that up so you had your argument, I said they are being overtly political which makes it at least partially their own doing they are losing the trust of those that disagree with their politics. Make the chicken or egg first argument all you want but there's approximately zero extra people that weren't voting for Biden anyway voting for him because a scientist said so but it will help open the door to turn more than zero people towards anti-science conspiracy.

    I don't know how you can really argue that the lack of trust in journalism wasn't at least a decent amount of their own doing. There's a lot of clickbait headlines, manipulation and gotcha games almost regardless of the direction of the political slant.
    Last edited by mcap; 10-15-2020 at 07:49 PM.

  16. #16
    Here's a few articles (from scientific journals) about the increased use of jargon and acronyms making it so that regular reasonably intelligent people are unable to follow along with the scientific articles any more. There are others. If you refuse to speak in a language that non scientists can understand, it would make sense that a possible result of that could be fewer people understanding or respecting the results of the science. Trump may have fanned the flames but there's multiple factors at play here most of which are self inflicted IMO.

    https://www.psychologicalscience.org...-communication

    https://elifesciences.org/articles/27725

    https://www.natureindex.com/news-blo...cronyms-jargon
    Last edited by mcap; 10-15-2020 at 08:14 PM.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    Here's a few articles (from scientific journals) about the increased use of jargon and acronyms making it so that regular reasonably intelligent people are unable to follow along with the scientific articles any more. There are others. If you refuse to speak in a language that non scientists can understand, it would make sense that a possible result of that could be fewer people understanding or respecting the results of the science. Trump may have fanned the flames but there's multiple factors at play here most of which are self inflicted IMO.

    https://www.psychologicalscience.org...-communication

    https://elifesciences.org/articles/27725

    https://www.natureindex.com/news-blo...cronyms-jargon
    Primary research has always been that way. Perhaps it has become worse but thats not a political thing. The knowledge-base of humanity has done nothing but grown, requiring more specialized definitions and such.

    Lets be honest though, very few people read primary research. You can't even access it without paying for it most of the time unless you know the latest URL to sci-hub or something similar.

    I'm not using the term primary research absolutely correctly, but it is close. I don't know a better term for the actual papers and not the watered down interpretations most people encounter.
    Grandpa Newell is the GOAT

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    It’s scientists fault if science is not as respected as it once was, similar to journalism. Scientific journals and publications that were once about impartial data and reporting have become overtly political which has eroded public trust in them. They’ve also increasingly become reliant on using acronym jargon for everything where interested semi intelligent non scientists would be able to grasp the concepts they’re explaining if written in plain language. Instead they’re now often written with so many acronyms and jargon that they can only intended to be read by their own echo chamber.
    No.

    This is what you've been told.

    Originally with Trump - it was that the media constantly lies (some truth to that) and all this fake news. Thats how Trump operates and those who worship him give it not a shred of critical thought. Now Trump and co. have moved on to trying to claim scientists are giving out fake science.

    Anyone who uses critical thought and not consumed by some cult-like biases can see this.

    No one knew how covid would play out. Science is what we currently know and is continually refined. There are things science believes that are wrong - but guess what - it is still a large improvement over not having science.

    This has been the tactic of the President and his people for some time. It really really isn't good for this country.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d415...&sf238763395=1

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...es-joe-biden1/

    It's also actually happening. This is a scientific journal outright telling you that it will be becoming more and more politics based. I agree it's not good for people not to trust science. Which is why they should stick to the fucking science in their published journals. Nowhere did I say that the science is fake you just made that up so you had your argument, I said they are being overtly political which makes it at least partially their own doing they are losing the trust of those that disagree with their politics. Make the chicken or egg first argument all you want but there's approximately zero extra people that weren't voting for Biden anyway voting for him because a scientist said so but it will help open the door to turn more than zero people towards anti-science conspiracy.

    I don't know how you can really argue that the lack of trust in journalism wasn't at least a decent amount of their own doing. There's a lot of clickbait headlines, manipulation and gotcha games almost regardless of the direction of the political slant.
    The above 2 are magazines and NOT scientific journals. You can readily subscribe to either one for a few bucks. Nature magazine and I believe at one point I subscribed to Scientific American too. They are media based on science. They don't publish raw studies.

    I agree about clickbait headlines. That and the wanting you to login to read a random article so they can then spam your email box with their shit. That is the nature of capitalism though. They have to sell their product and how else they going to do it without clickbait.
    Grandpa Newell is the GOAT

  19. #19
    Now I know and should have known you were just on one of your trolls. Goalposts moved from no it’s not happening just what you’re being told to nitpicking naming technicalities when it is happening.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    Now I know and should have known you were just on one of your trolls. Goalposts moved from no it’s not happening just what you’re being told to nitpicking naming technicalities when it is happening.
    No, you just don't understand science if you think this is moving the goalposts. Nature and Scientific American are not journals they are traditional media. A scientist in a specific field advancing science will never be reading them. They water things down for the semi-common man. The actual papers are typically locked behind a paywall. (Although author of the papers will likely email you a copy if you ask)

    Now if you want to argue that social sciences likely have political biases I would likely not disagree. Even this Coronavirus has become politicized due to our President making it a political issue.

    These are not science in general.

    Thats part of the problem. People started taking their science from shit like the President and boom now it is all political !

    One of the many problems with this country - ignorance and stupidity have become a virtue in the past 4 years. There were always dumb hicks who might express this sort of sentiment but now it is mainstream.
    Grandpa Newell is the GOAT

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