Smart Money

[monet]

I hate betting on Lose-A-Peg but the Coyotes cost me 200 dollars in cash and about 5000 in coulda, woulda, shoulda.
Anyways, I'll take the Jets over the Yotes giving up the Puckline for +185 or better today on a straight bet.
I like the value.

The Penguins scare me.
They are one of the few teams that could lose to the Sharks lol.
Got to take them with the Puck Line though.
I'm a believer in the Rangers and they are a small dog on the Money Line so that's nice.
I like the Kings Puck Line over the Flyers today since Philly is Very Erratic and on a back-to-back.
Sabres on the same back-to-back and the Leafs owe me money so take the Leafs with the Puck Line.
You can't bet against the Knights, but that game isn't going to be anything easy.
I'd take the Knights out of Principle, but I probably just enjoy watching the game with no action on it.

I'm not sure exactly how I'm gonna bet them.
Bet them how you like.
Jets Puck Line will be where I put most of my money for the day.
Since that's an earlier game it gives me time to get Hot Sucker and bet more in the evening.

[dannyj]

I hate betting on Lose-A-Peg but the Coyotes cost me 200 dollars in cash and about 5000 in coulda, woulda, shoulda.
Anyways, I'll take the Jets over the Yotes giving up the Puckline for +185 or better today on a straight bet.
I like the value.

The Penguins scare me.
They are one of the few teams that could lose to the Sharks lol.
Got to take them with the Puck Line though.
I'm a believer in the Rangers and they are a small dog on the Money Line so that's nice.
I like the Kings Puck Line over the Flyers today since Philly is Very Erratic and on a back-to-back.
Sabres on the same back-to-back and the Leafs owe me money so take the Leafs with the Puck Line.
You can't bet against the Knights, but that game isn't going to be anything easy.
I'd take the Knights out of Principle, but I probably just enjoy watching the game with no action on it.

I'm not sure exactly how I'm gonna bet them.
Bet them how you like.
Jets Puck Line will be where I put most of my money for the day.
Since that's an earlier game it gives me time to get Hot Sucker and bet more in the evening.

Not scared at all on the Pens PL.
I'm with you on Kings & Leafs PL's.
Love the NYR on ML and maybe even reverse PL. Although Quick is in net.
Probably stay away from WPG/ARI.
Kinda feelin' Bruins PL @+170, Redwings slumping.
For sure taking CBJ ML @ +124. Lindgren in net for Caps.
Kraken PL @ +215 looks good.
Probably go Canucks ML @+105.

[monet]

Easy Enough.
Nobody Listening Though...

[monet]

Two Teams are always giving me trouble for years now.
The Devils and The Leafs.
If you have to bet today, take the Knights with the Puck Line getting around +140.
Knights are Hot and the Ducks have been playing Super Lucky with 5 wins in a row.
They are not even close to that good.
Or wait till Monday/Tuesday with easier matchups but nothing wrong with the Knights on this back-to-back.
It's a good bet even if you lose.

[Don Perignom]

Nobody Listening Though...

I bet your picks sometimes when I see them. I'll start keeping track if I remember.

First up, today: Knights -1.5 +145, Westgate Superbook, 5 units.

This is a unit:

[monet]

Nobody Listening Though...

I bet your picks sometimes when I see them. I'll start keeping track if I remember.

First up, today: Knights -1.5 +145, Westgate Superbook, 5 units.

I guess that works for some fun and stuff.
I don't really post that much over here and I take long extended breaks.
If this forum had more hockey bettors who shared more details it would make it more interesting for me.
It would feel like we were in it together.
Give me more motivation.
A dollar a unit and betting near the rock bottom minimum probably isn't worth your time.
My posting is basically to showcase a few bullet points:

1. Parlays are beatable
2. NHL Puck Line is by far the most lucrative line in sports.
2. You can pick worse than 50% if you focus in on the Plus Puck Lines Offered.
4. Trash Talking.
5. Fun.

[Don Perignom]

A dollar a unit and betting near the rock bottom minimum probably isn't worth your time.

I'm prepared to bet bigger, but I need more confidence that I have an edge.

I don't really post that much over here and I take long extended breaks.
If this forum had more hockey bettors who shared more details it would make it more interesting for me.

No worries. Unfortunately, I know nothing. I don't think I've watched a hockey game in my life, and I'm not a skilled bettor in any aspect.

2. NHL Puck Line is by far the most lucrative line in sports.

Yes, I see that's one of your key themes. Maybe you've already covered it, but I intend to research the stats on winning by 1 vs any other #. Preliminarily, it does look like the typical puck line compensation is adequate for the difficulty (compared to money line bet).

I have a small concern within my understanding. House edge seems to run a little higher on the PL compared to the ML. For example, Circa regularly offers ML odds 10 cents apart on the +100 / -110 games. The PL is usually wider apart. But maybe that means it's less likely to be "sharp" if I'm using the term correctly.

[monet]

Obviously the game was fixed and they got the call in the third period.
Ducks cost me about 3500 in possible wins in the last 3 times I bet against them.
Dey owe me money and I'm gonna get it.
In real cash terms they only cost me about 400 bucks.
I had 180 on the Knights Puck Line last night so not really a big deal.

I'm playing small ball today.
Leafs got to break out of this funk yet.
And hopefully the Oilers continue to slide.

2 Teamer
Toronto Puck Line +165
Vancouver Puck Line +195

Around 6.5 to 1 on your dough.

This is not a confident bet.
We just throwing darts here.
Good Value Nonetheless.
Expect to lose this one if you bet it.
I'll probably put 60 to 120 dollars on it.
Most likely 120.
Root, Root, Root for the Home Team!

[dannyj]

Obviously the game was fixed and they got the call in the third period.
Ducks cost me about 3500 in possible wins in the last 3 times I bet against them.
Dey owe me money and I'm gonna get it.
In real cash terms they only cost me about 400 bucks.
I had 180 on the Knights Puck Line last night so not really a big deal.

I'm playing small ball today.
Leafs got to break out of this funk yet.
And hopefully the Oilers continue to slide.

2 Teamer
Toronto Puck Line +165
Vancouver Puck Line +195

Around 6.5 to 1 on your dough.

This is not a confident bet.
We just throwing darts here.
Good Value Nonetheless.
Expect to lose this one if you bet it.
I'll probably put 60 to 120 dollars on it.
Most likely 120.
Root, Root, Root for the Home Team!

I like the Panthers PL +110.
TBL ML +130
Bruins ML +114
Canucks ML -108 & maybe even reverse PL

[Don Perignom]

I'm assuming we only bet the puck line when we're laying the 1.5.

Vancouver Puck Line +195

My Nevada apps mostly don't support reverse puck lines afaik.

Circa has Vancouver -1.5 at +225. Caesars is +178, lol.

[Don Perignom]

I'm out.

Circa had Canucks ML +102, but I didn't take it because Caesars was +100. Then Circa moved to -101 and stayed there.

[Don Perignom]

Is there any value in Sagarin's ratings?

For today, he would bet the Ducks ML +144 (Circa) because he rates their win chance at 52%.

And the Sabres. Win chance 45%, but getting odds of +175 ML (South Point).

[Don Perignom]

Those lines have moved hard. Buffalo ML is now pushing into the 200s.



That's Prophet Exchange.

And Anaheim ML is up to +175, Atlantis app.

[kewlJ]

I hesitate to post this here, because betting on this team would not be smart.

The San Jose Sharks are extremely bad. winless through 11 games. Somebody said they may not win a game all year, which I am pretty sure won't happen. BUT their last 2 games were 10-1 and 10-2 losses. THAT pretty much says it all.

However the Flyers aren't good. Every year they get off to a 3-1 or 4-1 start and it is all down hill from there. This year no deffrent. After their 3-1 start they are 2-6. Occasionally they surprise as they did with a decent game in Buffalo last week, but the Flyers are bad. Not nearly in the same "bad" class as San Jose, but if ever you were going to throw some money on the Sharks, this might be the time. I am not doing so...just saying. I don't like to pick which team is worse of two bad teams. That is not my thing.

[Don Perignom]

Not nearly in the same "bad" class as San Jose, but if ever you were going to throw some money on the Sharks, this might be the time. I am not doing so...just saying.

I'm sitting out again today. Best odds I see on San Jose are about +175 ML, available in other states.

Sagarin has Philadelphia at 67% win probability, so you'd need odds into the 200s to have an edge based on that analysis. If I'm reading correctly.

[Don Perignom]

if ever you were going to throw some money on the Sharks, this might be the time. I am not doing so...just saying.

Congrats ... and ouch!

I hope you changed your mind on whether to bet.

Both picks I mentioned would have lost.

For today, Sagarin hasn't updated yet but I don't see anything in the odds deviating much from his ratings. I assume monet will like the VGK puck line. Best available is Knights -1.5 +200 at Circa. I'm not in yet.

[kewlJ]

if ever you were going to throw some money on the Sharks, this might be the time. I am not doing so...just saying.

Congrats ... and ouch!

I hope you changed your mind on whether to bet.

No, I didn't change my mind. I did not bet it. Whenever I am looking at a game and trying to decide who is the worse team out of two bad teams, I try to check myself and stay away. And this was two bad teams and the game was ugly. Flyers were the better of the two bad teams, but didn't win. San Jose had the added incentive of wanting to win a game before setting the kind of record you don't want to set. This Flyers game was probably there one shot to avoid that record.

The Sharks have scored 14 goals in 12 games, and scored 1 goal or been shut out in 9 of them, 2 goals twice (including last night), and 3 goals once. Something I may start to look at is the team total for them. Last night was 2.5. Seems like playing the under on any total over 2 might be worth considering, until and if they show the ability to score.

[Don Perignom]

Circa has Knights puck line +205, but they want me to bet $5!

Seems like playing the under on any total over 2 might be worth considering, until and if they show the ability to score.

I would be concerned about paying too much juice on something like that. For tomorrow's Oilers/Sharks matchup, Caesars is 34 cents apart on the Sharks total: over 2.5 -121, under 2.5 -113.

DraftKings in IL is 40 cents apart (over -125, under -115).

Circa has lower juice, such as the Senators today: over 3.5 +145, under 3.5 -165. But I think they're slower to post odds. They only have today's games currently.

I have no idea what you can find offshore.

[Don Perignom]

I'm in for $5, Knights -1.5 +205, Circa.

This won't count against monet when I lose, as he didn't explicitly recommend it.

Sagarin finally updated. He has VGK 55% to win, roughly in line with available ML betting odds.

[Don Perignom]

This surprises me.



Unabated indicates a small edge betting both sides at -127 and -120.

To come out ahead, I think you would need to hit your 7 at least 20% of the time. I did a quick count of November game results and got 23%.