Smart Money

[redietz]

I go back to the line from the trial of the late, great Mike Stockunas (interstate bookmaker extraordinaire). When the prosecuting attorney asked Stockunas' assistant, who was on the witness stand, if he knew what a parlay was, the assistant replied, "Yes sir (clearing throat). It's a really stupid bet," which brought laughter from the many in attendance and a warning from the judge to the audience.

[redietz]

To give people a sense of what's "normal" ATS, I'm in a forced-choice competition at Youwager.lv. You must pick six NFL games ATS each week. Currently, I'm 39-32-1 ATS. That puts me 77th out of 822 contestants heading into tonight's game.

For me to find six NFL sides ATS with no totals is like squinting for gnats, but so far, so good. Two years ago, I cashed with a tie for second or third in this thing. I think I was 18 games over .500 or thereabouts, which is really something. Probably the best I've ever done high-volume in the NFL.

[monet]

LOL. It means ka-ching to me. Vanderbilt is not a gimme, by the way. I'm going to guess Vols are -10 1/2 or thereabouts. I could be wrong.

So, you probably already been hedging and devaluing the 50-1.
Keep us posted!

Actually, monet, I have not. I have, however (since I don't particularly like Tennessee), bet against them a bunch of times -- Oklahoma (winner), Alabama (loser), Kentucky (winner), Florida (winner), and Miss State (winner). Bear in mind that these were teaser bets, so a win is really only a half win while the loss is a full loss.

But I appreciate the insinuation that I'm being less than stellar with my reporting.

Wait, wait, let me guess. I'm not reporting my moneyline bet on UTEP to beat them outright.

Look, I meant no offense this time, lol.
You stated many times that you make future bets.
And you admitted that you always hedge against those bets.
You keep bringing up the 50-1 payoff, but we all know it's not gonna end with those numbers.
I guess I assumed incorrectly.
The whole teaser semi-hedge thing is kind of wild.
I dunno.
You're just sharper.
Congrats.
You keep crushing them like you've been doing now for decades.
I'm gonna keep doing what I do.
You don't post winning picks, for free, on VCT constantly.
I do.
Even Dan Druff be posting 1000s of more winning picks than you.

[monet]

I go back to the line from the trial of the late, great Mike Stockunas (interstate bookmaker extraordinaire). When the prosecuting attorney asked Stockunas' assistant, who was on the witness stand, if he knew what a parlay was, the assistant replied, "Yes sir (clearing throat). It's a really stupid bet," which brought laughter from the many in attendance and a warning from the judge to the audience.

Even you have to admit this was before the modern technology era with algorithms, smart phones, rebates, promotions and kickbacks.

[monet]

To give people a sense of what's "normal" ATS, I'm in a forced-choice competition at Youwager.lv. You must pick six NFL games ATS each week. Currently, I'm 39-32-1 ATS. That puts me 77th out of 822 contestants heading into tonight's game.

For me to find six NFL sides ATS with no totals is like squinting for gnats, but so far, so good. Two years ago, I cashed with a tie for second or third in this thing. I think I was 18 games over .500 or thereabouts, which is really something. Probably the best I've ever done high-volume in the NFL.

But yet again, you are not over here helping any of us giving us like one game a week or something.

[monet]

3 and 4 Teamers in.
We also bet a 2 Teamer.
Rangers PL
Kings PL

If everything goes sideways, we can always play it straight on the Kings Puck Line at 7:30 Pacific Time.

[redietz]

To give people a sense of what's "normal" ATS, I'm in a forced-choice competition at Youwager.lv. You must pick six NFL games ATS each week. Currently, I'm 39-32-1 ATS. That puts me 77th out of 822 contestants heading into tonight's game.

For me to find six NFL sides ATS with no totals is like squinting for gnats, but so far, so good. Two years ago, I cashed with a tie for second or third in this thing. I think I was 18 games over .500 or thereabouts, which is really something. Probably the best I've ever done high-volume in the NFL.

But yet again, you are not over here helping any of us giving us like one game a week or something.

Monet, you do realize literally everything I posted here has made some money, even if just a sliver. Most of it has been chunks.

I think I'll just keep that unblemished record intact.

[redietz]

I go back to the line from the trial of the late, great Mike Stockunas (interstate bookmaker extraordinaire). When the prosecuting attorney asked Stockunas' assistant, who was on the witness stand, if he knew what a parlay was, the assistant replied, "Yes sir (clearing throat). It's a really stupid bet," which brought laughter from the many in attendance and a warning from the judge to the audience.

Even you have to admit this was before the modern technology era with algorithms, smart phones, rebates, promotions and kickbacks.

Monet, there have always been algorithms, rebates, promotions, and kickbacks.

The "silent killer" playing parlays under the "moderne" conditions is that you do not do the math to account for the loss of advantage of shopping. You do the math presuming all available lines have the same outcomes.

[monet]

Monet, you do realize literally everything I posted here has made some money, even if just a sliver. Most of it has been chunks.

I think I'll just keep that unblemished record intact.

I go back to the line from the trial of the late, great Mike Stockunas (interstate bookmaker extraordinaire). When the prosecuting attorney asked Stockunas' assistant, who was on the witness stand, if he knew what a parlay was, the assistant replied, "Yes sir (clearing throat). It's a really stupid bet," which brought laughter from the many in attendance and a warning from the judge to the audience.

Even you have to admit this was before the modern technology era with algorithms, smart phones, rebates, promotions and kickbacks.

Monet, there have always been algorithms, rebates, promotions, and kickbacks.

The "silent killer" playing parlays under the "moderne" conditions is that you do not do the math to account for the loss of advantage of shopping. You do the math presuming all available lines have the same outcomes.

I'm stupid, you're smart.
I was wrong, you were right.
You're the best, I'm the worst.
You're attractive, I'm not very good looking.

[monet]

3 and 4 Teamers in.
We also bet a 2 Teamer.
Rangers PL
Kings PL

If everything goes sideways, we can always play it straight on the Kings Puck Line at 7:30 Pacific Time.

Not so good.
Lose 4 Hun.
I was so depressed that I didn't even go back to make the Straight Bet.
I just hid under the covers and slept for 4 hours.
Good Times.

[tableplay]

Individual games get mispriced by the books. Yet, somehow, by magic, more complex instruments (Parlays) are set dead right by the books and don't get mispriced. Not. If anything, complex instruments are much harder to price correctly than their simpler counterparts (individual games).

The fade with Parlays is the variance, not the EV. Those that are variance tolerant (Monet for example) can find wildly chaotic mispricings (Butterfly Effect).

[The Boz]

3 and 4 Teamers in.
We also bet a 2 Teamer.
Rangers PL
Kings PL

If everything goes sideways, we can always play it straight on the Kings Puck Line at 7:30 Pacific Time.

Not so good.
Lose 4 Hun.
I was so depressed that I didn't even go back to make the Straight Bet.
I just hid under the covers and slept for 4 hours.
Good Times.

Get your fat ass up, maybe even take a shower, buy a couple eight balls (because at your size one won’t do it) and head down to rub & tug massage parlor. While it will ruin the human trafficking victims day it might cheer you up a little. Better investment than your parlays.

Come on, the books are counting on their parlay boy to not give up.

[Keystone]

3 and 4 Teamers in.
We also bet a 2 Teamer.
Rangers PL
Kings PL

If everything goes sideways, we can always play it straight on the Kings Puck Line at 7:30 Pacific Time.

Not so good.
Lose 4 Hun.
I was so depressed that I didn't even go back to make the Straight Bet.
I just hid under the covers and slept for 4 hours.
Good Times.

Get your fat ass up, maybe even take a shower, buy a couple eight balls (because at your size one won’t do it) and head down to rub & tug massage parlor. While it will ruin the human trafficking victims day it might cheer you up a little. Better investment than your parlays.

Come on, the books are counting on their parlay boy to not give up.

Lol

[monet]

Individual games get mispriced by the books. Yet, somehow, by magic, more complex instruments (Parlays) are set dead right by the books and don't get mispriced. Not. If anything, complex instruments are much harder to price correctly than their simpler counterparts (individual games).

The fade with Parlays is the variance, not the EV. Those that are variance tolerant (Monet for example) can find wildly chaotic mispricings (Butterfly Effect).

Today is a pretty good example of what you are talking about.
I didn't even want to bet but this two teamer pays nearly 9 to 1.
You can't lose with these coin flip matchups and those odds.
People look at these parlays like they look at football but it's completely different.
The Puck Line changes everything.
Whatever though.

2 Teamer
Bruins Puck Line
Utah Hockey Club Puck Line

I put a few bills on it.
Why not us?
Just because we’re down, and we’re fat, and we’re ugly, and we’re broke, doesn’t mean it’s over.

[monet]

That's why the Puck Line is so Fucking Fragile.
You can literally move it 20 points with a thousand dollar bet.
They have these lines set at the wrong numbers all the time.
Everyone is free to do and think what they want.
I've been doing it and living in it for just about 40 years now.
2 Teamers or more do not move the Puck Line For Everyone's Information.

[monet]

I go back to the line from the trial of the late, great Mike Stockunas (interstate bookmaker extraordinaire). When the prosecuting attorney asked Stockunas' assistant, who was on the witness stand, if he knew what a parlay was, the assistant replied, "Yes sir (clearing throat). It's a really stupid bet," which brought laughter from the many in attendance and a warning from the judge to the audience.

Even you have to admit this was before the modern technology era with algorithms, smart phones, rebates, promotions and kickbacks.

Monet, there have always been algorithms, rebates, promotions, and kickbacks.

The "silent killer" playing parlays under the "moderne" conditions is that you do not do the math to account for the loss of advantage of shopping. You do the math presuming all available lines have the same outcomes.

That guy wasn't talking about NHL Puck Line Parlays.
I don't even think they had a Puck Line when he was in court.

[monet]

So much activity in this Fucking Thread that it's only a matter of time before Bill Yung shows up and starts screaming.

[redietz]

For monet:

The Riddler has made money on every play. Admittedly, some were minimal, razor's edge profits, but most were not. So to wrap up his posting, and especially for monet, who loves long shots, I give you the final definitive riddle. And, just for monet, to make it interesting, it can be bet as a parlay (not saying it should be, but it CAN be).

Riddle Me This:

From the Land of Hanging Kickers
Who couldn't Kick Out the Stool,
And Pummeling the Man in Red
Because He Was a Fool.

To the Land Where Dawgs are Barking,
Where Misdirections Live.
The Snapping Meets the Soaring
And Something's Gotta Give.


The Riddler


Have a fine 2025.

[monet]

For monet:

The Riddler has made money on every play. Admittedly, some were minimal, razor's edge profits, but most were not. So to wrap up his posting, and especially for monet, who loves long shots, I give you the final definitive riddle. And, just for monet, to make it interesting, it can be bet as a parlay (not saying it should be, but it CAN be).

Riddle Me This:

From the Land of Hanging Kickers
Who couldn't Kick Out the Stool,
And Pummeling the Man in Red
Because He Was a Fool.

To the Land Where Dawgs are Barking,
Where Misdirections Live.
The Snapping Meets the Soaring
And Something's Gotta Give.


The Riddler


Have a fine 2025.

I stopped following Collegiate Football in the late 90s.
I stopped following the NFL around 2010 or so.
I suck at riddles.
Dogs, Indiana or whatever.
Just post the freaking pick.
Make it plain and simple for me to understand.
Thank You.

[monet]

Individual games get mispriced by the books. Yet, somehow, by magic, more complex instruments (Parlays) are set dead right by the books and don't get mispriced. Not. If anything, complex instruments are much harder to price correctly than their simpler counterparts (individual games).

The fade with Parlays is the variance, not the EV. Those that are variance tolerant (Monet for example) can find wildly chaotic mispricings (Butterfly Effect).

Today is a pretty good example of what you are talking about.
I didn't even want to bet but this two teamer pays nearly 9 to 1.
You can't lose with these coin flip matchups and those odds.
People look at these parlays like they look at football but it's completely different.
The Puck Line changes everything.
Whatever though.

2 Teamer
Bruins Puck Line
Utah Hockey Club Puck Line

I put a few bills on it.
Why not us?
Just because we’re down, and we’re fat, and we’re ugly, and we’re broke, doesn’t mean it’s over.

Was a good try.
These games were tight.
Could have easily gone either way.
Lose 200.

Mix and Match Day.
It's your money, bet'em how you want to.

Wild Puck Line
Devils Puck Line
Stars Puck Line
Blue Jackets Puck Line
Jets Puck Line
Kraken Puck Line
Predators Puck Line
Hurricanes Puck Line
Canucks Puck Line

MONEY LINE BETS
Flames
Bruins