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Thread: Smart Money

  1. #701
    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ral-title-2018


    Gotta celebrate when it's appropriate. I didn't realize they clinched today until a few minutes ago.

    The one thing this crew did, better than anybody but the super teams, was hit for average. Straw was a liability in the ninth spot (I think he began the year leadoff -- ugh), but everyone else could hit and advance runners.

  2. #702
    Even though the Chiefs blew it for me, last week, I ended up a little ahead since Green Bay won outright.
    Lot of money seems to have gone down on the Buc's moving the line to EVEN from -2.5...
    I'm taking the Chiefs, on the road, again this week.
    Damn the Torpedoes!

  3. #703
    I had a long night, and on my way out I threw 7 Hun on the Chiefs Money Line.
    Coincidentally, I broke my single line Royal Streak, making one on 5 dollars.
    Only left 10k up though.
    Beating the book always feels better.
    I'm sure this +105 line was not the best.
    They still have to pay me.
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  4. #704
    Well done. I did not understand the massive line swing. I thought KC -2 was an appropriate opening line. I had the Over teased. Not much excitement there. I have an open teaser that unfortunately must be closed today. Some of the offshores have reduced time limits on closing open teasers. I think what we'll do is close it with the Over tonight and buy back half of the wager on the Under. I'd like to catch a 43 and buy it to 44 for the buyback. We'll see if any 43s become available. Right now, I have just one offshore offering open in perpetuity. Another offshore has instituted a 30-day limit, and another went from perpetuity to seven days, so the era of our betting many teasers is probably drawing to a close.

    I first became aware of teasers when I was about 15, reading The National Football Lottery by Larry Merchant. Good book, monet. Classic. If you haven't read it, check it out. Merchant, who wrote for Sports Illustrated and had been a longtime gambler, got a 10K advance (worth about 40K in today's money) to write an NFL gambling book. The trick was that he used the advance to gamble. One thing the book demonstrates is how gamblers knew about "Wong" teasers long before Wong had the bad judgement to write about them.

  5. #705
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Merchant, who wrote for Sports Illustrated and had been a longtime gambler, got a 10K advance (worth about 40K in today's money) to write an NFL gambling book. The trick was that he used the advance to gamble.
    When I read this, it made me belly laugh.
    That's classic and something I would totally do.
    Actually, when I go back and reread it, I still can't help but laugh out loud and grin at the thought of it.

  6. #706
    OK, here we go.
    I didn't want to bet on the NFL this week as I found most of the matchups too difficult.
    I made the lone bet on the Chiefs and won.
    I was going to stay away from this Monday night game, but I can't understand why San Francisco is still favored when 61% of bettors are betting on LA.
    I know San Francisco is 5-0 ATS at home in their last 5 games, but I think that streak comes to an end tonight.
    Take the Rams on the Money Line and Over 41.5 if you want to parlay it.
    Or don't as you can wait for a bettor opportunity... bettor... see what I did!?

  7. #707
    For the record, I lost half a unit on Monday night. I had the Over 35 teased for a unit. Instead of taking Under 44 for half a unit as a hedge, I waited until halftime, then took Under 20 for the second half for half a unit. Damn shame Rams couldn't score that last drive, but Stafford looked more into self-preservation than scoring.

    I have one place that allows me discounts on juice buying half points, so I would have been laying -130 to go Under 44. Not that it mattered. I opted for the second half Under 20.

    Rams have no speed on offense. No Beckham, no third WR, no speed. It's gotta be killing Stafford, with his arm, to try to throw five yard patterns to Higbee and squeeze short throws betwixt double coverage into the Kuppster. I always hated the Rams offense. I hated it last season. I hate it this season.

    One of the reasons for all of these Unders is the Canadian Football League style play design. Some of these offenses might work in the CFL or the Mountain West, but throwing cross-field to get five yards against NFL athletes is moronic. Especially when the field is not 65 yards wide.
    Last edited by redietz; 10-04-2022 at 02:19 PM.

  8. #708
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    For the record, I lost half a unit on Monday night. I had the Over 35 teased for a unit. Instead of taking Under 44 for half a unit as a hedge, I waited until halftime, then took Under 20 for the second half for half a unit. Damn shame Rams couldn't score that last drive, but Stafford looked more into self-preservation than scoring.

    I have one place that allows me discounts on juice buying half points, so I would have been laying -130 to go Under 44. Not that it mattered. I opted for the second half Under 20.

    Rams have no speed on offense. No Beckham, no third WR, no speed. It's gotta be killing Stafford, with his arm, to try to throw five yard patterns to Higbee and squeeze short throws betwixt double coverage into the Kuppster. I always hated the Rams offense. I hated it last season. I hate it this season.

    One of the reasons for all of these Unders is the Canadian Football League style play design. Some of these offenses might work in the CFL or the Mountain West, but throwing cross-field to get five yards against NFL athletes is moronic. Especially when the field is not 65 yards wide.
    I lost 300 on the game last night.
    Not Fun as I knew I was dead after the first quarter.
    The crowd was really into it and the 49'ers came to play!
    NHL starts in 3 days but in reality it starts in 7 days.

  9. #709
    Tom Brady on the verge of Divorce.
    Any thoughts on how this could affect his game and beating the point spread?
    I like betting against him now as age and his personal life could cause havoc but Brady is Brady and with his offensive weapons getting healthy it still could pose a problem.
    Even with the Green Bay and Chiefs wins, against him, it still wasn't perfect.
    Brady could of won the Green Bay game, and he still moved the ball against the Chiefs.

  10. #710
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Tom Brady on the verge of Divorce.
    Any thoughts on how this could affect his game and beating the point spread?
    I like betting against him now as age and his personal life could cause havoc but Brady is Brady and with his offensive weapons getting healthy it still could pose a problem.
    Even with the Green Bay and Chiefs wins, against him, it still wasn't perfect.
    Brady could of won the Green Bay game, and he still moved the ball against the Chiefs.
    Two pieces of conflicting, but true, information.

    1) Brady's arm, although never that strong, has held up to the point where his arm strength is better than Drew Brees' arm his last two years and better than Peyton Manning's arm his last year. Brady's arm may be better than Eli's arm his last year.

    2) Brady's lifetime ATS record is so good that going forward you are getting zero value taking him. You are always getting shorted at least two points.

    These are facts. Now what should we do with them? I don't have any brilliant theories. I have to think without Brown and Gronk, you are spitting into the wind betting on Brady going forward. The question is whether you should automatically bet against him or pick your spots.

  11. #711
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Two pieces of conflicting, but true, information.

    1) Brady's arm, although never that strong, has held up to the point where his arm strength is better than Drew Brees' arm his last two years and better than Peyton Manning's arm his last year. Brady's arm may be better than Eli's arm his last year.

    2) Brady's lifetime ATS record is so good that going forward you are getting zero value taking him. You are always getting shorted at least two points.

    These are facts. Now what should we do with them? I don't have any brilliant theories. I have to think without Brown and Gronk, you are spitting into the wind betting on Brady going forward. The question is whether you should automatically bet against him or pick your spots.
    Just the fact that you believe the point spread is off by 2 points is monster and I have nothing else to say but thank you for the heads up and information.
    That's really interesting and great insight.
    I have to believe his personal life and being in the news about it constantly has to have some effect.
    Not so much about being in the news but the fact that they are having issues has to bother him mentally.
    And let us not forget that he took a huge cut in pay from 37 Million to 15 Million as he could of retired and been in the booth.
    I mean the money isn't going anywhere but he has to think like "I don't need this shit... I can get paid more than double by just analyzing this game on TV" without the physical and mental abuse.

  12. #712
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Two pieces of conflicting, but true, information.

    1) Brady's arm, although never that strong, has held up to the point where his arm strength is better than Drew Brees' arm his last two years and better than Peyton Manning's arm his last year. Brady's arm may be better than Eli's arm his last year.

    2) Brady's lifetime ATS record is so good that going forward you are getting zero value taking him. You are always getting shorted at least two points.

    These are facts. Now what should we do with them? I don't have any brilliant theories. I have to think without Brown and Gronk, you are spitting into the wind betting on Brady going forward. The question is whether you should automatically bet against him or pick your spots.
    Just the fact that you believe the point spread is off by 2 points is monster and I have nothing else to say but thank you for the heads up and information.
    That's really interesting and great insight.
    I have to believe his personal life and being in the news about it constantly has to have some effect.
    Not so much about being in the news but the fact that they are having issues has to bother him mentally.
    And let us not forget that he took a huge cut in pay from 37 Million to 15 Million as he could of retired and been in the booth.
    I mean the money isn't going anywhere but he has to think like "I don't need this shit... I can get paid more than double by just analyzing this game on TV" without the physical and mental abuse.
    Betting against Brady is tough. He more or less edits out whatever plays are in the playbook that would be a challenge for his arm. You're never going to see him throw balls he can no longer throw. The whole offense hides any deficiencies. You're not going to see any horse's ass cross-field screens going upfield and stuff (like the one Stafford had picked off for a TD Monday). No outs cross field into coverage. Nothing like that will be called. The play designs are basically to clear out the middle of the field and create the shortest, easiest throws. And it works. Half of the play designs are window dressing to create a receiver in the middle of the field with the easiest imaginable throw.

    The only time you get a sense of his arm limitations are when there's a defensive offside or something and he automatically throws deep. Those throws look more like lollipop heaves. But his arm is still stronger than Peyton Manning's that last year. And Manning won the Super Bowl.

  13. #713
    Don't bet too much on this.
    Just for funsies and I like the matchups.

    All Favorites.
    All Home Teams.
    All Run Line

    Braves
    Astros
    Yanks
    Dodgers

    Stay away from the two NHL games on the 11th.
    Will the Yotes lose 10 games in a row, at the start, again?
    Maybe.
    Target against them.
    Target against the Hawks if you can get a good line as Genius already stated.
    You know him as regins.
    And target against every Canadians favorite hockey club, Montreal.

  14. #714
    lol... Fuck You Philly and Seattle... You're both going down hard in game 2!

  15. #715
    Padres bats have woke up. And, they got Clevinger on the hill who the Dodgers should hit hard.

    LA/SD OV 7.5

  16. #716
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    Padres bats have woke up. And, they got Clevinger on the hill who the Dodgers should hit hard.

    LA/SD OV 7.5
    It looks like the Dodgers might score the over for you all by themselves.

  17. #717
    Nice win danny... I almost jinxed ya.

  18. #718
    Just testing the waters here.
    Not betting much on anything right now.

    Carolina -1.5 -110
    This opened at +120 on the Puck Line so missed out on that.

    Colorado -1.5 -155
    Oilers -1.5 +140
    Ducks -1.5 +205

    Toronto has a good price but Montreal at home tends to spoil them
    -1.5 +105

    Atlanta Braves -1.5 +160

    If you went crazy and bet all 6 teams you should get around 110 to 1.

  19. #719
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Just testing the waters here.
    Not betting much on anything right now.

    Carolina -1.5 -110
    This opened at +120 on the Puck Line so missed out on that.

    Colorado -1.5 -155
    Oilers -1.5 +140
    Ducks -1.5 +205

    Toronto has a good price but Montreal at home tends to spoil them
    -1.5 +105

    Atlanta Braves -1.5 +160

    If you went crazy and bet all 6 teams you should get around 110 to 1.
    I'm involved in the Braves game but just on ATL TT OV 3.5
    I think the Phillies are live though at +125. They have already pushed start time back twice due to rain.

    Can't pull trigger on the Leafs or Caps, but I'm looking at two 2 teamers.

    Canes PL
    Avalanche PL

    Oilers PL
    Ducks ML

  20. #720
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Just testing the waters here.
    Not betting much on anything right now.

    Carolina -1.5 -110
    This opened at +120 on the Puck Line so missed out on that.

    Colorado -1.5 -155
    Oilers -1.5 +140
    Ducks -1.5 +205

    Toronto has a good price but Montreal at home tends to spoil them
    -1.5 +105

    Atlanta Braves -1.5 +160

    If you went crazy and bet all 6 teams you should get around 110 to 1.
    I'm involved in the Braves game but just on ATL TT OV 3.5
    I think the Phillies are live though at +125. They have already pushed start time back twice due to rain.

    Can't pull trigger on the Leafs or Caps, but I'm looking at two 2 teamers.

    Canes PL
    Avalanche PL

    Oilers PL
    Ducks ML
    Nicely Done on your wins today.
    I couldn't pull the trigger on the OVERs on the Ducks and Avalanche but they both squeaked by.
    Montreal played spoiler as I suspected.
    Braves covered.
    Best day I seen in the book for my picks in a long time.

    Tomorrow looks really good which means I should lose all picks.

    Penguins -1.5
    Knights -1.5
    Kings -1.5

    Astros -1.5

    Toronto, at home, against the Capitals, on the Puck Line, if you like to gamble.

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