Smart Money

[redietz]

I was thinking of you as they tried to torture you after the big early inning.

The Overs as suggested went 5-2 today, bringing the one week profit to six or seven games over .500, depending on your numbers. Not too shabby. It might be time to pull the plug on it, take the profit, and call it a day. Tomorrow's totals look reasonable, though, so will decide later tonight.

[monet]

Here is my early Christmas Present to the VCT Members and any and all Lurkers on VCT.
Bet this Two Team Parlay all season long.
You'll laugh all the way to the bank.

Dodgers Run Line
Anyone who plays against the Reds Run Line.

You are welcome.

Possible adjustment at quarter, middle and third quarter of the season.
Due to injury and or unforeseen circumstance.

[monet]

Pitchers Duel Alert Tomorrow!
However, Miami at home crushes the Diamonbacks.
Miami Run Line paying +150 is too good to pass up.
Play it Straight like the Real Profesionals.
Bet the Farm and Ranch and even Grandmas House.

Want to gamble and play a two team paraly?
Take the Lightning on the Money Line at +110.
Two Teamer should pay around 4.25 to 1 on your dough.
I may have to bring out the big guns and bet 3k.
Undecided but my balls are getting itchy.

[Ozzy]

Monet, and this relates to what you just said, the primary reason no winning handicapper is going to give away plays these days is that, if you do win, all of your posts are going to be data mined by programmers to determine how you win and what you are doing. If you post all of your plays, those plays will be profiled and categorized, and a year from now, other people are going to know how and why you are winning more precisely than you do.

You just cannot do that without camouflage or cover or you risk self-immolation. The way to provide cover in terms of sports books is to try to middle games, so the volume of money devoted to trying to middle the games is on par or dwarfs the actual plays. But to do that without wasting money requires anticipating line moves and shopaholic skills.

Another Great Post from you!
You really have been on a roll for the last week or two.
And this post makes me want to close my account and never post on gambling forums again and never post another sports pick.

However, there is one problem.
I'm not doing anything.
My handicapping strategy is the Tin Cup Strategy.
GRIP IT AND RIP IT!
Therefore, nobody and I mean nobody is going to figure out what I am doing because I'm not doing anything.
I look at the board and I just know who will crush who.
It certainly doesn't always work.
And I was on an UnGodly Run for two weeks in April.
You guys didn't see all the 2 and 3 Teamers I hit because the NHL Favorites were constantly covering over that span and the Dodgers covered the run line for 8 out of 9 games.
And I was too busy winning to bother to come in here constantly and post and I didn't want to take the time to scan all those winning tickets just to prove a point.
Way too much leg work for me.
So worry not Pikachu, nobody will figure anything out or shut me down because its all just Fucking Throwing money at shit and see if it sticks.
What could happen is the Casino tracks my wins and decides they just don't want my action for whatever reason but I doubt that would happen with the major players.
In any case your post certainly is food for thought.
Rockies/Reds OVER covers by a half a point as they scored 11 total.

Tin cup is for awkward begging millionaire power tripping dufuses !

[monet]

Tin cup is for awkward begging millionaire power tripping dufuses !

That's the spirit!
I thoroughly enjoyed the mean spirited venom from your post.
The last week or two has been eye opening as members come out of the woodwork and show their true colors.
Who would of thought after all that communist and slant eyed talk that redietz never took it to heart and actually has the most education in this field who understands all the angles.
As If you can't grip it and rip it with a 50k bankroll.

[monet]

After looking into the Blues/WILD game I forgot a major problem.
The Blues have owned Minnesota.
Something like 13-2-1 or something crazy like that as I am recalling from memory.
Of course it isn't a lock for the Blues to win but I certainly wouldn't want to bet against them as they seem to own and control the game when they play the WILD.
And it doesn't matter if they are on home ice or away.
Don't believe me.
Look it up.

[redietz]

Pitchers Duel Alert Tomorrow!
However, Miami at home crushes the Diamonbacks.
Miami Run Line paying +150 is too good to pass up.
Play it Straight like the Real Profesionals.
Bet the Farm and Ranch and even Grandmas House.

Want to gamble and play a two team paraly?
Take the Lightning on the Money Line at +110.
Two Teamer should pay around 4.25 to 1 on your dough.
I may have to bring out the big guns and bet 3k.
Undecided but my balls are getting itchy.

A couple of thoughts. First, there are two NL Overs today with 6 1/2 lines. I would take both, even laying the -115. The other is the early KC/St L with good pitchers. Interleague game that I count as an NL game, but I would make this a half play. I would play this at 7, laying -120, but not play it at 7 1/2. I already took it for a week's worth of dinners at 7 and will hedge 80% of that at 7 1/2, which is available some places.

That will be a wrap on this particular bulk betting angle. That's a week's worth of plays since I first posted. If I lose all three, it still winds up 3 1/2 or 4 1/2 games over .500, depending on your numbers.

Second, I agree with monet that the Dodgers are underrated and should annihilate everyone. But I would not parlay. Just shop for the best individual Dodger number and the best individual anti-Reds number if you are going to do this. I tend to never bet against teams that appear as terrible as the Reds, but they are convincing me. If you can't hit in Colorado, you have issues. The Dodgers have paid to have the best team, and they really should have the best team. Now whether that means betting them in the best future you can find or betting them game by game is up to bettors. Last season, after the first 50 games, I took SF to win their division and the NL. I got extremely lucky, as I have no idea how they held off the Dodgers. They won half a dozen games they should have lost, especially with late game and extra inning heroics. I hedged fine and made decent money -- I could not ask them to beat the Dodgers in the head to head playoff series. My point is, SF should not be able to beat the Dodgers for the division. Nobody should.

Here's a caveat. I know nothing about baseball.

So wrap up the NL Overs today, and take care.

[monet]

A couple of thoughts. First, there are two NL Overs today with 6 1/2 lines. I would take both, even laying the -115. The other is the early KC/St L with good pitchers. Interleague game that I count as an NL game, but I would make this a half play. I would play this at 7, laying -120, but not play it at 7 1/2. I already took it for a week's worth of dinners at 7 and will hedge 80% of that at 7 1/2, which is available some places.

That will be a wrap on this particular bulk betting angle. That's a week's worth of plays since I first posted. If I lose all three, it still winds up 3 1/2 or 4 1/2 games over .500, depending on your numbers.

Second, I agree with monet that the Dodgers are underrated and should annihilate everyone. But I would not parlay. Just shop for the best individual Dodger number and the best individual anti-Reds number if you are going to do this. I tend to never bet against teams that appear as terrible as the Reds, but they are convincing me. If you can't hit in Colorado, you have issues. The Dodgers have paid to have the best team, and they really should have the best team. Now whether that means betting them in the best future you can find or betting them game by game is up to bettors. Last season, after the first 50 games, I took SF to win their division and the NL. I got extremely lucky, as I have no idea how they held off the Dodgers. They won half a dozen games they should have lost, especially with late game and extra inning heroics. I hedged fine and made decent money -- I could not ask them to beat the Dodgers in the head to head playoff series. My point is, SF should not be able to beat the Dodgers for the division. Nobody should.

Here's a caveat. I know nothing about baseball.

So wrap up the NL Overs today, and take care.

Keep posting like this and we will have to change the name of the thread to Redietz's Smart Money.
Maybe Ozzy is right and I should just quit sports and concentrate on bowling and pocket billiards.
Those people in both spots are so damn friendly, nice and happy.
Don't believe me?
Get some bowling equipment and head out to the lanes and see for yourself.
Same goes for the pool halls.
At least in Vegas that is.
I'm really impressed that everyone is willing to high five and shake hands.
I've never had one person refuse a hand shake since I restarted shooting pool and rolling orbs.
Feels Good and I lost 22k in the last couple nights on machines.

[regnis]

Redietz--I have never been one to play the "unexplainable" trends like the over-under trend you have pointed out. I am not saying anyone is right or wrong to do so, but it has never been my thing. I require empirical evidence to support the trend. Of course, by the time you have the evidence it is usually too late.

Now it can be said that the evidence is the clearly dead ball and diminished home runs. Also, the shortened spring training. I don't know.

But whatever works--do it!!!

I am still trying to figure out if I can lay 1 1/2 in the NHL playoffs. You couldn't do it back in the day but it is a different game now.

[dannyj]

Good stuff.

Wonder what you and Danny think about the NHL playoffs. I am a little hesitant to lay the 1 1/2 in the playoffs. But that could just be because I'm old.

Ok, so we still have some unknowns in net today but I think I'm going to fire before price changes. As we all know this is playoff hockey, completely different animal.

Here is what I like

Bruins ML +100 Their number 1, Ullmark is confirmed and I just can't go against B's. Should have fired yesterday and got a better price.

Lightning ML +105 I know the leafs are scary good and at home but I expect Vasilevskiy to start for TBL and that is where they have the edge.

Blues ML +120 I expect Husso to start for Blues, all bets are off if Binnington goes. Wild are playing it really close to vest on who is starting, I'd feel better about my pick if MAF starts. I have a feeling they're going to go with Talbot which in my opinion makes this a little more dicey.


Don't really like the last game.
If I had to bet I'd lay it on oilers PL.

[monet]

Redietz--I have never been one to play the "unexplainable" trends like the over-under trend you have pointed out. I am not saying anyone is right or wrong to do so, but it has never been my thing. I require empirical evidence to support the trend. Of course, by the time you have the evidence it is usually too late.

Now it can be said that the evidence is the clearly dead ball and diminished home runs. Also, the shortened spring training. I don't know.

But whatever works--do it!!!

I am still trying to figure out if I can lay 1 1/2 in the NHL playoffs. You couldn't do it back in the day but it is a different game now.

Yes they offer the Puck Line in the Playoffs.
Are they scared of the Puck Line now because they aren't in the regular season??
It's more difficult though.
All the teams in the playoffs are winning teams.
More likely to end in a one goal differential.
But you know... what the Fuck do I know... nothing.

[monet]

Good stuff.

Wonder what you and Danny think about the NHL playoffs. I am a little hesitant to lay the 1 1/2 in the playoffs. But that could just be because I'm old.

Ok, so we still have some unknowns in net today but I think I'm going to fire before price changes. As we all know this is playoff hockey, completely different animal.

Here is what I like

Bruins ML +100 Their number 1, Ullmark is confirmed and I just can't go against B's. Should have fired yesterday and got a better price.

Lightning ML +105 I know the leafs are scary good and at home but I expect Vasilevskiy to start for TBL and that is where they have the edge.

Blues ML +120 I expect Husso to start for Blues, all bets are off if Binnington goes. Wild are playing it really close to vest on who is starting, I'd feel better about my pick if MAF starts. I have a feeling they're going to go with Talbot which in my opinion makes this a little more dicey.


Don't really like the last game.
If I had to bet I'd lay it on oilers PL.

See... more dififcult.
A lot of disagreement between me and danny here.
Ah... It's only money.
Fuck Hockey.
Bet the Marlins Run Line.

[regnis]

I meant that I am afraid to lay the 1 1/2----not that the lines wouldn't still be 1 1/2.

I just don't feel comfortable laying more than the 1 in playoffs. Like you said, more likely to be 1 goal game. Of course, I am probably dead wrong.

[monet]

I meant that I am afraid to lay the 1 1/2----not that the lines wouldn't still be 1 1/2.

I just don't feel comfortable laying more than the 1 in playoffs. Like you said, more likely to be 1 goal game. Of course, I am probably dead wrong.

Understood!
Like I say, all the match-ups are wining team vs winning team.
That in of itself is a reason to watch the games and enjoy them and wait till next year's regular season.
But I'm a Poor Person who bets Parlays who uses the Doofus Millionaire Tin Cup Strategy so that I can Trip off of this Power that I have?
I've been broke sleeping on the street since 1991 in Vegas.
I'm at the Library right now.
Honestly, I'd like to know how I Power Trip when I have no Power in my life whatsoever?
Seems Strange.
I'm a Blue Collar Emotional Hockey Bettor but you know, these real professional sports bettors like Ozzy and Boz know what's up.
What do they do?
Bet 12 dollars on some stupid football game?
Lived in Vegas since they were 16?
Ran away from home to live in Vegas to become a Professional Gambler!?
Been Gambling on Sports since they were 9 years old??
I don't think they did.
I'm pretty sure that describes my life.
At this rate... tableplay will be in here calling me every name in the book.
Hurting the ONE Feeling that I have.
If that happens, All Hope is Lost and I'm asking for a Self Banning.

And let me tell you something about analyzing.
I had a friend who would ask me for picks on occassion.
He also got picks from another friend who only bet Line Movements.
After a couple of years my friend only asked me for picks because my picks were crushing the other guys Line Movement Picks.
My friend told me that he trusted me 1000x more because I actually followed the sports and watched all the games.
Knew all the players on each team of the sports that I follow from memory believe it or not.
But you know... keep crunching those numbers you Pro Handicappers you!
Try to remember that betting sports is like flipping coins... literally.
If you don't understand that you don't know Jack.

[dannyj]

Pitchers Duel Alert Tomorrow!
However, Miami at home crushes the Diamonbacks.
Miami Run Line paying +150 is too good to pass up.
Play it Straight like the Real Profesionals.
Bet the Farm and Ranch and even Grandmas House.

Want to gamble and play a two team paraly?
Take the Lightning on the Money Line at +110.
Two Teamer should pay around 4.25 to 1 on your dough.
I may have to bring out the big guns and bet 3k.
Undecided but my balls are getting itchy.

A couple of thoughts. First, there are two NL Overs today with 6 1/2 lines. I would take both, even laying the -115. The other is the early KC/St L with good pitchers. Interleague game that I count as an NL game, but I would make this a half play. I would play this at 7, laying -120, but not play it at 7 1/2. I already took it for a week's worth of dinners at 7 and will hedge 80% of that at 7 1/2, which is available some places.

That will be a wrap on this particular bulk betting angle. That's a week's worth of plays since I first posted. If I lose all three, it still winds up 3 1/2 or 4 1/2 games over .500, depending on your numbers.

Second, I agree with monet that the Dodgers are underrated and should annihilate everyone. But I would not parlay. Just shop for the best individual Dodger number and the best individual anti-Reds number if you are going to do this. I tend to never bet against teams that appear as terrible as the Reds, but they are convincing me. If you can't hit in Colorado, you have issues. The Dodgers have paid to have the best team, and they really should have the best team. Now whether that means betting them in the best future you can find or betting them game by game is up to bettors. Last season, after the first 50 games, I took SF to win their division and the NL. I got extremely lucky, as I have no idea how they held off the Dodgers. They won half a dozen games they should have lost, especially with late game and extra inning heroics. I hedged fine and made decent money -- I could not ask them to beat the Dodgers in the head to head playoff series. My point is, SF should not be able to beat the Dodgers for the division. Nobody should.

Here's a caveat. I know nothing about baseball.

So wrap up the NL Overs today, and take care.

Since you're hedging anyways, you could parlay the early over (KC/STL) with one of the later games, either MIA or Mets and get +230 or so.
Check it out Monet, I'm trying to talk Red into a parlay.
Just a thought.

[monet]

Since you're hedging anyways, you could parlay the early over (KC/STL) with one of the later games, either MIA or Mets and get +230 or so.
Check it out Monet, I'm trying to talk Red into a parlay.
Just a thought.

LOL
Ahhhh Fuck... Another 2 hour sleep day for me.
I guess I'm up now.
Shit!
Shave.
Shower.
I could really use a good soak in the whirlpool right now as the bowling made my left leg, knee and shoulders hurt.
I get a really good throbbing from my left knee to my left hip after I bowl my second game.
But I like it... No Pain, No Gain.

[monet]

I also don't understand why we would divide the NL from the AL now since they both have the DH?
Am I wrong here?
Is there a difference still between the two leagues.
Seems to me that you just bet OVER on all the games.
That's why I didn't do it yesterday.
That's a lot of running and tickets and I work alone.
If I was going to divide anything or analyze it I would analyze each individual Ballpark for the OVER/UNDER.
And if I really wanted to geek out I would analyze or cross reference the OVER/UNDER for each individual starting pitcher for that day.
But I'm an amateur.
I know nothing.
Just tripping off all this power that I obtain from VCT.

[regnis]

Since you're hedging anyways, you could parlay the early over (KC/STL) with one of the later games, either MIA or Mets and get +230 or so.
Check it out Monet, I'm trying to talk Red into a parlay.
Just a thought.[/QUOTE]


No Danny!!! Red man can't handle parlay or fire water.

[redietz]

Since you're hedging anyways, you could parlay the early over (KC/STL) with one of the later games, either MIA or Mets and get +230 or so.
Check it out Monet, I'm trying to talk Red into a parlay.
Just a thought.

No Danny!!! Red man can't handle parlay or fire water.[/QUOTE]


I don't think I have ever bet an off the board parlay in my life. And I'm old.

Now that's not to say parlay CARDS were unplayable. When college football lines shifted 2 1/2 points or more from card to game day, and games were staggered in time, then I played a bit. Had many adversarial brief discussions at the old Stardust. Some people were trying to make a career out of doing that, not that there's anything wrong with it. I wasn't trying to crucify them; I was more or less killing time in the two hours between "must get a seat" and kickoff. They got so annoyed at people doing this card angle, one season I had a Stardust manager walking to every window I went to just to make sure I didn't bet more than $50 on a card. It was ridiculous.

[monet]

No Danny!!! Red man can't handle parlay or fire water.

LOL... Hilarious.
I'll be under my covers in my bed crying myself to sleep for the next few days if anyone needs me.