Smart Money

[dannyj]

No Danny!!! Red man can't handle parlay or fire water.

LOL... Hilarious.
I'll be under my covers in my bed crying myself to sleep for the next few days if anyone needs me.

0 for 2

I'll be here all week folks.
Let's see I liked the Blues also, so the Wild must be shoe-in.
Oh shit STL just scored! Go Blues!
I kinda liked the oilers earlier wonder if I should lock in on the Kings?

[redietz]

I also don't understand why we would divide the NL from the AL now since they both have the DH?
Am I wrong here?
Is there a difference still between the two leagues.
Seems to me that you just bet OVER on all the games.
That's why I didn't do it yesterday.
That's a lot of running and tickets and I work alone.
If I was going to divide anything or analyze it I would analyze each individual Ballpark for the OVER/UNDER.
And if I really wanted to geek out I would analyze or cross reference the OVER/UNDER for each individual starting pitcher for that day.
But I'm an amateur.
I know nothing.
Just tripping off all this power that I obtain from VCT.

I'm going to answer the one question without really answering it. First of all, I was winging this too much -- I should have not played the interleague games. They have some advantage, but not as much as the NL games.

Second, I have specific historical reasons to bet the NL only, but I'm not going to spell them out. They're not super secret reasons or anything you couldn't figure out on your own, but 98% of bettors aren't aware of certain numbers, so I'll keep my reasoning to myself. But there was some thinking behind it that made sense to me. I had three or four halfway decent reasons, actually, but they were all based on historical league data going back three or four years.

The main idea was that the totals for the NL were too high to begin the season, based on the new DH. Unders went crazy for both leagues, and that forced the totals down. Well, half a run shift is enormous, and eventually the totals shifted down enough to turn the Overs into an advantage.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner tonight. Good week. And that's it for the project.

The only reason I shared this stuff is that bulk betting is just a contextual decision with no real skill or expertise involved, so I didn't give away any aspects of how I do anything. I just paid attention and was patient enough to wait for the right numbers.

We did a similar thing when the college three-point line was moved back a couple of years ago. We targeted the teams that shot the most threes and previously shot the highest percentage of threes, and we went after the Unders involving those teams for about a month. It worked pretty well. But things like these may not come up for a decade or more. You just sniper them when you think you can.

And yeah, I still know nothing about baseball. Seriously.

[monet]

It is clear that I should only bet Hockey.
Still going to bet on the Dodgers and against the Reds all season long,
And perhaps even bet against the Pirates.
I wasn't that far off... Marlins almost rallied losing 5-4.

[monet]

I'm going to answer the one question without really answering it. First of all, I was winging this too much -- I should have not played the interleague games. They have some advantage, but not as much as the NL games.

Second, I have specific historical reasons to bet the NL only, but I'm not going to spell them out. They're not super secret reasons or anything you couldn't figure out on your own, but 98% of bettors aren't aware of certain numbers, so I'll keep my reasoning to myself. But there was some thinking behind it that made sense to me. I had three or four halfway decent reasons, actually, but they were all based on historical league data going back three or four years.

The main idea was that the totals for the NL were too high to begin the season, based on the new DH. Unders went crazy for both leagues, and that forced the totals down. Well, half a run shift is enormous, and eventually the totals shifted down enough to turn the Overs into an advantage.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner tonight. Good week. And that's it for the project.

The only reason I shared this stuff is that bulk betting is just a contextual decision with no real skill or expertise involved, so I didn't give away any aspects of how I do anything. I just paid attention and was patient enough to wait for the right numbers.

We did a similar thing when the college three-point line was moved back a couple of years ago. We targeted the teams that shot the most threes and previously shot the highest percentage of threes, and we went after the Unders involving those teams for about a month. It worked pretty well. But things like these may not come up for a decade or more. You just sniper them when you think you can.

And yeah, I still know nothing about baseball. Seriously.

We're not worthy.
Thanks for finally participating.

Looks like I called 3 out of 4 in Hockey and should of just took Toronto Puck Line because of the Price.
Carolina Covered.
Blues Covered.
And like I said... the Kings are going to spoil the Oilers.
At first glance I was thinking WILD but after consideration I adjusted before game time.
Many hours before puck drop.
Not like I took my own advice because I was sold on the Marlins.
Sorry to anyone who bet with me.
I need to focus more and do better.
The Lightning could be tired as they won the cup back to back but I still believe that Toronto will blow it like usual.

I have a few tickets in today but too lazy to list them.
I was out all night and had an appointment at 11 am to put a new water softener/conditioner and RO System in the house.
Not only did they rob me but I went out to Chinatown to dry this new dumpling place and got robbed for 90 dollars.
That place sucked.
Never go back.
At least I stiffed the servers.
Feels Good Man.
Bring back Harbor Seafood you bastards!


Early NHL Picks.

Hurricanes Money Line but I hate betting it straight at -120
Lightning Money Line because Toronto plays like shit in the Playoffs.
No Line up on the WILD yet but I'm taking the WILD in some fashion or another.
I'm scared about the Oilers but they always blow the Playoffs too so I'll take the Kings on the Money Line in the first game.
The Oilers are a 2 to 1 favorite in that game so I'm guessing you'll get +150 or so on the Kings.

After looking into the Blues/WILD game I forgot a major problem.
The Blues have owned Minnesota.
Something like 13-2-1 or something crazy like that as I am recalling from memory.
Of course it isn't a lock for the Blues to win but I certainly wouldn't want to bet against them as they seem to own and control the game when they play the WILD.
And it doesn't matter if they are on home ice or away.
Don't believe me.
Look it up.

[monet]

3 Teamer All Puck Line

Panthers
Avalanche
Flames

Huge Favorites.
Better Teams.
All with the Home Ice Advantage.
Penguins win probably but because they blew it two years in a row against the Islanders, I am not ready.

Take the Brewers Run Line but the Dodger game is scary as its always a tough fight with those Fags.
I'll wait for the Dodgers to play a weaker team.
I'm cold right now but the Hot Streak is coming.
Just wait.
I'm gonna win while you all lose faith in me
This is why I hate the Book... It's a Mother Fucker who never gives you anything on the backside for your action.
Dirty, Stinking, Whore, Cunt whom I still Hug, Kiss and Love.

7 to 1 on the 3 Teamer
14 to 1 on the 4 Teamer

[tableplay]

At this rate... tableplay will be in here calling me every name in the book.

Monet, you are always trying to help people with A#1 great sports picks,documentaries and song/movie recos and I write this without being under duress like the unfortunate Mr. Donald Pleasance:

[redietz]

Final project tally: Plus 7 1/2 or +8 1/2 games for the week, depending on whether you were patient and caught the Over 9 1/2 for the one Colorado game the last few hours before the game (the rule was nothing 10 or above). I would think most people were 8 1/2 games over .500.

Hard to say anything negative about that. The lack of negative comments from the usual suspects is deafening.

[Ozzy]

Tin cup is for awkward begging millionaire power tripping dufuses !

That's the spirit!
I thoroughly enjoyed the mean spirited venom from your post.
The last week or two has been eye opening as members come out of the woodwork and show their true colors.
Who would of thought after all that communist and slant eyed talk that redietz never took it to heart and actually has the most education in this field who understands all the angles.
As If you can't grip it and rip it with a 50k bankroll.

You don't remember the Tincup spectacle, just before Rusty the weasel sold his "house" for 2.3mil ? That was suppose to be a joke. A lot of people probably understood the meaning. I thought you would aswell !

[dannyj]

3 Teamer All Puck Line

Panthers
Avalanche
Flames

Huge Favorites.
Better Teams.
All with the Home Ice Advantage.
Penguins win probably but because they blew it two years in a row against the Islanders, I am not ready.

Take the Brewers Run Line but the Dodger game is scary as its always a tough fight with those Fags.
I'll wait for the Dodgers to play a weaker team.
I'm cold right now but the Hot Streak is coming.
Just wait.
I'm gonna win while you all lose faith in me
This is why I hate the Book... It's a Mother Fucker who never gives you anything on the backside for your action.
Dirty, Stinking, Whore, Cunt whom I still Hug, Kiss and Love.

7 to 1 on the 3 Teamer
14 to 1 on the 4 Teamer

Gotta keep firing Monet.
Can't argue with your NHL picks.

I might single game parlay PL & Over on:

Panthers +235
Avalanche +200 (Saros is out)


In no particular order or format. Straight or parlay.

Padres OV 8 -110 (opened 7.5 think about buying the hook down)
Twins RL -105
Yankees ML +110
Pirates ML +125
Brewers RL -105
Cardinals ML -120
Rockies OV 10.5 -120

Out.

[redietz]

Monet,

Regarding the slant-eyed talk, you do realize that your wife is referring to you as a WBA behind your back?

[monet]

Welp, I didn't lose because I didn't bet.
I haven't been sleeping well.
About 2 hours per day for 3 weeks.
Either I got Corona again or my body just shut the Fuck down on me.
I could barely move.
Slept for over 20+ hours.
Feel better now but it feels like a hangover.
Probably the Omicron as its mild with a mean headache and very slight sore throat with some mucus and dry mouth.
I'll be back up and running in a day or two.
Sorry about that 4 Teamer.
2 out of 4 makes it look like Redietz strategy is the much better play.
I told you my wife calls me Gweilo to my face.
That's a very derogatory word used by Asians for White People.
And we both make fun of me being a FAT PIG.
I do all kinds of funny things with my stomach to make her laugh.
This kind of talk doesn't bother us.
We laugh.
And she sort of hates Filipinos and Vietnamese.
Claims they don't tip well and are very mean.
Thanks tableplay.
I do try... I am very brash but I came from nothing.
Crazy Vietnam War Father and we were on Welfare till I was about 16 when I up and ran away to Vegas.
Seems to work out ok for me so far.
Life goes Fast.
I was late to the machine party as I was too busy sleeping at the poker table.
Funny how the Poker Craze exploded and I wanted nothing to do with it because Machines were much easier and stronger IMO.
Free Everything and the Money was just sitting on the floor waiting for you to pick it up.

[monet]

Like you say... keep firing.

5 Teamer

Astros Run Line (I'm gonna keep betting on Verlander till I die)
Mets Run Line
Blues Money Line
Bruins Money Line
Oilers Puck Line

END TRANSMISSION

[redietz]

Gweilo? Is your wife Chinese? Gweilo meant something worse 40 years ago. Now it usually just means dumb ass white person.

Unfortunately, IQ tests support its current usage.

[dannyj]

Like you say... keep firing.

5 Teamer

Astros Run Line (I'm gonna keep betting on Verlander till I die)
Mets Run Line
Blues Money Line
Bruins Money Line
Oilers Puck Line

END TRANSMISSION

Once again, in no particular order or format. Straight or parlay

D-Backs ML +145
Padres G-1 OV 7 -120
Cards OV 7.5 -110
Twins RL +115
Yanks RL +120
Rockies RL +130
Rockies OV 10.5 -110

Bos/Car OV 5.5 -120
TBL/Tor OV 6.5 +100
Blues ML +115 (somewhat surprised and glad to see MAF confirmed in net. Bets are off if Binnington goes for Blues. Just Kiddin)

Out.

[monet]

Gweilo? Is your wife Chinese? Gweilo meant something worse 40 years ago. Now it usually just means dumb ass white person.

Unfortunately, IQ tests support its current usage.

I only posted this about a thousand times on this site but my wife is from Hong Kong.
She doesn't considered herself Chinese.
She says she is Hong Kong People or oddly enough she says she is English/British lol.
Anyways, she hates China... not Chinese People just the Chinese Government.
She speaks Cantonese.
She finally got naturalized a few years back.
I have to admit that ceremony was pretty cool with all the patriotism, I had to hold back my tears.
I keep telling her that she isn't from Hong Kong anymore... She is American!

[monet]

Like you say... keep firing.

5 Teamer

Astros Run Line (I'm gonna keep betting on Verlander till I die)
Mets Run Line
Blues Money Line
Bruins Money Line
Oilers Puck Line

END TRANSMISSION

Once again, in no particular order or format. Straight or parlay

D-Backs ML +145
Padres G-1 OV 7 -120
Cards OV 7.5 -110
Twins RL +115
Yanks RL +120
Rockies RL +130
Rockies OV 10.5 -110

Bos/Car OV 5.5 -120
TBL/Tor OV 6.5 +100
Blues ML +115 (somewhat surprised and glad to see MAF confirmed in net. Bets are off if Binnington goes for Blues. Just Kiddin)

Out.

Those Rattlers can't keep doing this... this is bullshit
They are about to lose 6 in a row and I'm gonna cash in on it.

5-4
5-4
MY ASS!

[monet]

Shit... I snooze, I lose.
I didn't have the energy to get to the book so the Marlins and Mets game already went off.
Not sure if I can make it to the book today or not.
My energy was too low to make homemade soup and my wife had to work at 11am.
I got her to go to Albertsons and buy those soups in the Plastic Containers though.
Not the best but a life saver when you can't make your own.
I know all of you are praying for me to have a speedy recovery and I thank you for that.

EDIT: Looks like I will never make the Astro game either... Damn these Mental Bets.
Oh well, if I can force myself to drive maybe I can make some money on my NHL Bread and Butter.
This is one downside of not having friends, a team or runners.
And my wife damn near refuses to make bets for me as she hates doing it.
She won't even pick up my 300 dollar Free Plays when I ask her.

[monet]

The Reds are 3-20 lol.
Expect them to at least lose 120 games.
The Dodgers just may break the record for most wins in a season.
Good Times and Profit ahead for us who bet and believe.

FYI... The Dodgers are 15-7 and have covered the Run Line in all 15 wins.
On the Flip side the Reds have been beaten by the Run Line in 17 out of their 20 loses.
Just Saying.

[monet]

WARNING!
This post is graphic in nature and some of you who do not approve of such talk may want to not read any further.
Remember graphic talk and you have been warned.
Do not proceed...

After 3 hours of constant diarrhea I feel much better.
I got the sweats a little bit now but I'd say I am up and running at 80%.
Lots of gurgling in the intestines and stomach.
Probably from the gallon of OJ I drank mixed with the Quarter Gallon of Soup I ate.
I will most likely be fully recovered within 24 hours.
I have a very strong immune system and I don't need no fucking Covid Shots or Boosters.
This could very well have been round number two of the Corona for me but I'm winning now 2-0.
And this will give me even a stronger immune system.
The first time I got it it lasted about a week.
This time... 2 days.
Of course this could of just been fatigue as I have only slept an average of 2 hours per day for 3 weeks.
I'm feeling pretty good to make it to the Book and to stop off at Kohls and pay my Credit Card Bill.
Gonna Bet a 3 Teamer.

Boston Money Line
Blues Money Line
Oilers Puck Line.

Tomorrow will be the same damn bet as before...

Panthers Puck Line
Avalanche Puck Line
Flames Puck Line

[monet]

Nice pick dannyj on those rattlesnakes.
Crazy game ending at 8-7 in your favor.
Before the 9th inning started the Fish were a 94.3% chance to win lol.
You might be on a run here as the Cards covered the Over and so did game 1 of the Padres.
The Astros covered but the Mets got wrecked.
I didn't win or lose since I couldn't get to the book in time as my body wouldn't let me.
I did get down on some hockey though.
Hockey, Hockey, Hockey, Hockey, Hockey, Hockey, Hockey, Hockey, Hockey, Hockey...