Originally Posted by
monet
Stop saying shoulda, coulda, woulda.
At the end of the day you count up your money or units.
That's the only way to measure.
Either you get paid for your bet, you push or you lose.
None of this bullshit about how things should of gone.
True and not true.
The quality of your picks isn't just dictated by actual win/losses but also how close they were. If you make 6 picks, and 3 are blowout wins and 3 are close losses, those were six good picks. You just fell on the wrong side of variance for those six. Similarly, if you made an under pick which wins by a wide margin in regulation, but you get fucked by OT and lose, it was a good pick. On the flip side, if you make an over pick which easily loses in regulation, but the bet wins thanks to OT, it was a bad pick where got lucky.
So it's important to note when you are seemingly seeing things well, and when you are just getting lucky or unlucky.
I will tweak things when I'm perceiving that I'm losing due to making actual bad picks, rather than just bad luck.