Dan Druff's 2020-2021 NBA Picks

[redietz]

Stop saying shoulda, coulda, woulda.
At the end of the day you count up your money or units.
That's the only way to measure.
Either you get paid for your bet, you push or you lose.
None of this bullshit about how things should of gone.

True and not true.

The quality of your picks isn't just dictated by actual win/losses but also how close they were. If you make 6 picks, and 3 are blowout wins and 3 are close losses, those were six good picks. You just fell on the wrong side of variance for those six. Similarly, if you made an under pick which wins by a wide margin in regulation, but you get fucked by OT and lose, it was a good pick. On the flip side, if you make an over pick which easily loses in regulation, but the bet wins thanks to OT, it was a bad pick where got lucky.

So it's important to note when you are seemingly seeing things well, and when you are just getting lucky or unlucky.

I will tweak things when I'm perceiving that I'm losing due to making actual bad picks, rather than just bad luck.

Agreed. You need ways of evaluating what you are doing other than raw scores. In football, my experience has been that you win maybe 70-72% of the games you deserve to win, and you win 28-30% of games you deserve to lose. So it has that poker dominant hand ratio to it.

Lakers played at a much faster pace without LeBron. I halfway expected that, but was somewhat surprised at the difference. The pace was completely different.

[redietz]

Stop saying shoulda, coulda, woulda.
At the end of the day you count up your money or units.
That's the only way to measure.
Either you get paid for your bet, you push or you lose.
None of this bullshit about how things should of gone.

True and not true.

The quality of your picks isn't just dictated by actual win/losses but also how close they were. If you make 6 picks, and 3 are blowout wins and 3 are close losses, those were six good picks. You just fell on the wrong side of variance for those six. Similarly, if you made an under pick which wins by a wide margin in regulation, but you get fucked by OT and lose, it was a good pick. On the flip side, if you make an over pick which easily loses in regulation, but the bet wins thanks to OT, it was a bad pick where got lucky.

So it's important to note when you are seemingly seeing things well, and when you are just getting lucky or unlucky.

I will tweak things when I'm perceiving that I'm losing due to making actual bad picks, rather than just bad luck.

I thought your picks were pretty good yesterday Dan.
I was on the Hornets -3 and the Mavs under but that Magic game did in my parlay. Shit I am one of Red's dumb asses.

Don't bet parlays. Unless there's some odds-boosting promotions or special scenario like frozen lines on parlay cards, it makes no sense.

[Dan Druff]

Looks like I'm headed to 1-2 or 0-3 in first 3 picks. Ugh. Here's one more tonight:

Golden State vs. Phoenix - Under 220

[Dan Druff]

Clippers finish was so bizarre.

They fouled their way to 119-117, to clinch the tie for me with 7 seconds. Then the second free throw by Washington was missed, and Washington got the ball back. NOBODY FOULED and just let the Wizards dribble it out with 2 seconds.

WTF

That should've been a win. Yes, monet, I said it.

[Dan Druff]

1-2-1 day

Golden State under was a lucky win. Total was 218 with 38 seconds left, and finished with 218.

However, as noted above, I should have won that Washington over, and it tied.

10 picks over the past 2 days, but I went only 4-5-1.

[Dan Druff]

I heard the NBA is back.

San Antonio +150 at Dallas (all starters and almost all reserves BACK in the lineup on both sides)
San Antonio/Dallas - Over 226.5

FYI the books REALLY don't want you betting over on this game, as they've jacked the line up 3 points yesterday and 4 more today. So on the one hand, you're getting a 7 point worse line than the opening, which I know makes some early line type bettors cringe.

On the other hand, I still feel this one is going over.

[Dan Druff]

If you haven't bet the above picks, I wouldn't at this point.

LaMarcus Aldridge, who I believed would play tonight, has quit the Spurs. I kid you not.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/l...iggest-losers/

He and the Spurs have agreed to "part ways". He has had a hard time getting along with coach Popovich. Aldridge hasn't been particularly good lately, so these bets aren't toast, but I would have much rather had him in the lineup. However, I will say that the Spurs have done better without him starting than with him starting, so there's that.

[Dan Druff]

Went 0-2. Wish the news about Aldridge was published slightly earlier, I would have stayed away from both. Over was on pace to win through 3, then scoring died. San Antonio also hung on through 3, and fell apart after that.

Big slate of games today, but I can't find much I like.

There's only this one:

Boston +121 at Brooklyn (Durant out, Griffin out)

This is a reverse Trapper John pick. The plops all love Brooklyn here.

[Dan Druff]

Okay, since I'm betting against the ploppies tonight, I'll go with them on another one.

Orlando is getting back Aaron Gordon tonight. Good? Not exactly. He hasn't played in awhile, and is being kept to "very limited minutes". In addition, the Magic are missing Ennis, Fournier, Anthony, Isaac, Fultz, and Ross. While the Heat are down Meyers Leonard (for being an anti-Semite) and Bam Adebayo (knee injury), they're in much better shape overall.

Most importantly, due to the shorthandedness of the Magic, and the return of Gordon, several players will be in positions they're not used to playing. It will be a mess.

Miami -9 vs. Orlando

[Dan Druff]

Things aren't landing well for me these days.

Screwed in trash time in the Miami game, as Butler misses a free throw and the Heat hold the ball after the Magic give it up with 22s left. 111-103, and I lose by 1.

Boston had a lead at some points, and hung right there with Brooklyn, but collapsed at the end.

Now in a 1-6-1 funk in last 8 picks, dating back to before the break.

[Dan Druff]

Record on 3/2/21: 67-66-2 (+5.01 units)

3/3: 3-3 (-0.27 units)
3/4: 1-2-1 (-1.09 units)
3/10: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
3/11: 0-2 (-2.00 units)

Total 3/3-3/11: 4-9-1 (-5.36 units)

GRAND TOTAL: 71-75-3 (-0.35 units)


I've officially fallen back into the red.

[Dan Druff]

Memphis +130 vs. Denver

Starting in about 20 min

[Dan Druff]

Once again the final shot burned me. Memphis had the final shot with 6s left, and clanked a layup, losing 103-102. Painful.

A +162 dog isn't the best way out of a 5-game losing streak, but I'll do it anyway.

Two banged-up lineups today in the morning game.

NY is without Rose, Robinson, Rivers, and perhaps Payton and Quickley. OKC is without Alexander, Bazley, and Hill.

It's going to be a shitshow. I'm taking the Thunder and hoping Payton/Quickley either don't play, or are limited.

OKC +162 vs. New York

[Dan Druff]

Ugh what a bad streak. Worst of the season.

One more today.

Atlanta -4 vs. Sacramento

[Dan Druff]

Actually, I lied. One more I've been considering all day (and watched the line fall, sadly).

Brooklyn vs. Detroit - Under 226

[Dan Druff]

Okay, won those 2 evening games yesterday. Whew! 2-1 day overall.

Almost made no picks today, but I decided I do like one. Coming up at 5pm PDT.

Boston at Houston - Under 221.5

Houston has scored double-digits in 4 of their last 7 contests, and no more than 114 in any of those 7.

They're also horrible at this point, and are likely to get blown out. Wall, Wood, House, Gordon all out.

[Garnabby]

They're also horrible at this point, and are likely to get blown out. Wall, Wood, House, Gordon all out.

They're also horrible at this po1nt, and are likely to get blown out. Wall, Wood, House, Gordon all out. --->

It's Better to Be Wealthy and Healthy Than Poor and Ill.

https://anagram-solver.net/They%27re....?partial=true


For fun, I thus predict that they lose.

[Dan Druff]

Houston game had a bad 1st quarter which basically sunk my under bet. 0-1 yesterday.

Got two for tonight:

Golden State +107 vs. Lakers (GS +1.5 or better ok)
Denver vs. Indiana - Under 223.5

[Dan Druff]

After an 0-2 smackdown yesterday, I'll try again.

New York at Philadelphia - Over 219 (Embiid out, Rose out, Payton doubtful, Robinson out)
Miami vs Cleveland - Under 206.5

[Dan Druff]

Forgot to post this here. I made this pick on my PFA site just minutes before game time:

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post966929

Cleveland vs. Boston - Under 212.5