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Thread: MDawg's baccarat system/ method of play

  1. #1
    Here is how he plays baccarat ...

    https://www.truepassage.com/forums/s...in-at-Baccarat

    Basically follow the trend with a mini-martingale ("double up").
    What, Me Worry?

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    Basically follow the trend with a mini-martingale ("double up").
    Isn't the basis of martingale doubling up after losses?

    Is that what MDawg explained that he does in that thread you linked?

  3. #3
    I press as I win. That's not a martingale. Sometimes I press as follows (using for example 100 as the unit):
    100, 150, 250, etc.
    I don't press exactly 1.5 for that sequence, but approximately.

    other times
    100, 300, 900, etc.
    For this sequence I press exactly 3.


    Just depends on the shoe and the circumstances.


    There are times I have been down thirty grand, and gotten it back simply by betting average 500 for hours. No martingale. Martingale is stupid. I never got past my first year even of any kind of gambling, and I had just turned gambling age, before I abandoned any kind of martingale.


    There is no mechanical progression or mechanical system to my winning. It just depends on the shoe and the circumstances.
    Last edited by MDawg; 01-26-2021 at 05:56 PM.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  4. #4
    The last trip, the very last day, the last shoe I played, I had a shoe where the bank NEVER went more than one. I mean, every time the bank hit, it went single only, and for that entire shoe, the next hand was player. It didn't take me long before I figured it out and I was rolling with laughter, chanting this mantra, BANK GOES ONE, NEXT HAND PLAYER! Just like that. The only reason I didn't empty the tray was...I kept thinking...there is NO WAY this is going to keep up. But it did. And, I bet it for a modest amount each time, 1800 for me, 100 on the side for the dealer on player each time the bank hit, and cleared about twenty grand on that shoe.

    Then on another shoe, about a week earlier, I came in about fifteen hands into the shoe, and for the rest of the shoe, about sixty or so more hands, I missed...maybe 3 hands. Unfortunately, I was having such a good time I forget to bet...I bet a measly couple hundred the whole way through. So by the end, given that I didn't bet the ties and pushed on the tie hands, I had about ten five ($10,500.). Try to tell me that's just luck...winning 57/60 hands (minus ties).

    But just as important as winning...is leaving...after a good shoe, which I'm excellent at that too. I try to always leave as soon as I'm sufficiently ahead. (Recall that both Teliot and the Wizard declared that about 97% of Vegas visitors are ahead at some point during their trips.)

    On the other hand, there are sometimes shoes that follow no discernible pattern whatsoever. During this last trip I was playing a shoe, and not doing very well, and my friend (who plays with a half million line and is allowed to bet up to forty grand a hand), came over to look and declared that "It's impossible to win on that shoe!" - and, he was right, at least around that time. Later, that shoe settled into a discernible pattern and I started to win. But during the time when the shoe was unpredictable, I bet small.

    Why do high rollers sometimes win millions on a single Baccarat shoe? Is it because they are lucky, or because there are in fact certain Baccarat shoes that allow any half way decent player to win, and other shoes where it will be very hard to win.

    I'm just telling you, I am able to win at Baccarat very regularly, and very consistently, and it's not luck. Looking from the outside, there will always be non-believers, but so what - that leaves more deng (money), for me. And less crowded tables. I prefer it that way actually.

    Same with stock trades. I just don't miss any longer. Now first off, I trade additional shares on top of my long term shares. I am not strictly a trader - I am mostly an investor, who also trades on occasion. Sometimes, I do get stuck, and then I just ride it out, and the stock always comes back. (For example today in the A.H. I sold some AMZN at 3384 that I had been holding at a loss, at 3328 for some time, on an intended day trade that turned into a position trade.) And I trade only very blue chip tech stocks for the most part, which is why the stocks I trade tend to make new ATHs (all time highs) eventually, such that it becomes impossible to lose trading them, so long as you are able to ride it out.

    My luck or whatever you want to call it is good and I am determined to avoid contamination. Sometimes, contact with the lucky may change a man's run of bad luck, but generally it works out the other way. I prefer to play alone. I also stock trade alone. I don't waste time in groups when it comes to winning at stocks or gambling.
    Last edited by MDawg; 01-26-2021 at 06:45 PM.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    I press as I win. That's not a martingale.
    After reading the post that V linked, how did he conclude that you played using martingale ?
    Last edited by coach belly; 01-26-2021 at 06:51 PM.

  6. #6
    I just skimmed back through that post. I have no idea how he thought anything mentioned in that post had anything to do with martingale?
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  7. #7
    MDawg, do you have the coach as a full-time employee? Or are you also a phenomenal online ventriloquist?

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    MDawg, do you have the coach as a full-time employee? Or are you also a phenomenal online ventriloquist?
    Its obvious they share the same basement.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Its obvious they share the same basement.
    You desert rats can't even afford a basement.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Its obvious they share the same basement.
    You desert rats can't even afford a basement.
    I know, they are very expensive and difficult to dig in this desert, very few people have them, even the super rich people oftentimes don't have them.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by coach belly
    After reading the post that V linked, how did he conclude that you played using martingale ?
    I said "mini-martingale (double up)."

    To me pressing after a loss constitutes a mini-martingale; YMMV.
    Last edited by MisterV; 01-26-2021 at 08:08 PM.
    What, Me Worry?

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by MDawg
    I'm just telling you, I am able to win at Baccarat very regularly, and very consistently, and it's not luck. Same with stock trades. I just don't miss any longer.
    If it's not luck, and it's not skill, it must be ...

    *bows*

    All hail the Messiah, truly he walks among us!

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    Last edited by MisterV; 01-26-2021 at 08:04 PM.
    What, Me Worry?

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    they are very expensive and difficult to dig in this desert
    The Ant had no problem digging holes in the desert.

  14. #14
    So, I think I pulled a muscle in my stomach laughing so hard. MDawg is playing a progressive betting system. I mean really, everyone with a brain already knew that. I have just been waiting for him to reveal or confirm it.

    I am going to say it one time and that is it. A progressive betting system can not do what you are claiming. It is a mathematical fact proven decades, maybe centuries ago. A progressive betting system can not change a -EV game into a long-term winning game. PERIOD! And all the name calling and attacks won't change that.

    And this is exactly why Wizard wanted to watch you play. He would have recognized almost immediately it was a progressive system. He probably would have been gentlemanly and not laughed out loud in your face, but he would have had to bite his tough awfully hard to keep from doing so.

    AND, this is precisely why you refused to meet Wizard and show him. You knew you would have been laughed off the forum.

    So congratulations, you have discovered a system hundreds of years old....THAT DOESN'T WORK! Nothing else to say, let your name calling and attacks and denial begin,

    To the rest of you: What the Fuck is it with these guys? It is ALWAYS some sort of rehashed progressive wagering system and usually with stop limits thrown in as if piling two or more losing strategies on top of one another does anything but make it worse.

    That is all I am going to say. Happy trails M-Huckleberry Finn.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  15. #15
    As I explained.
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post

    There is no mechanical progression or mechanical system to my winning. It just depends on the shoe and the circumstances.
    But, if whatever I have to say inspires an admirer to post 263 words about me, hey...there's no press like bad press.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    I press as I win. That's not a martingale. Sometimes I press as follows (using for example 100 as the unit):
    100, 150, 250, etc.
    I don't press exactly 1.5 for that sequence, but approximately.

    other times
    100, 300, 900, etc.
    For this sequence I press exactly 3.
    MDawg, you posted the above and now you say there is no progression betting. I think I see the problem. You don't understand the definition of progression wagering.

    Here let me lay the definition on you: adjusting the size of your stake based on whether your previous bet has won or lost. Exactly how you adjust your stakes depend on the system being used, and whether it is a negative progression or a positive progression.

    A progression system isn't just one of the many variations of Martingale where you increase wagers after losing.
    PRESSING WINNING BETS IS ALSO PROGRESSION WAGERING! and it doesn't work.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  17. #17
    Before the early 2000's, MDawg used to play blackjack and baccarat
    with roughly average results.

    In the early 2000's, he quit playing, partially over some losing trips
    and partially to focus on law school and real life matters.

    In 2018 he resumed playing and exclusively played baccarat.

    Since resuming play in 2018, he has made 9 or 10 Vegas trips.

    Each trip he played at approximately three casinos.

    He claims a net win not just every trip, but every casino at every trip.

    His total credit line between casinos he plays is about $250,000.

    His strategy on a daily basis is a net win for that day.

    To achieve this, he might play one shoe only or for 12 hours.

    Some days he might win as little as $100.

    Since 2018, he is up about $200,000 overall.

    This is an average win of about $20,000 per trip.

    That said, with ammunition of a quarter million dollars,
    it is not incredibly unlikely to do what he has done.

    For one thing, his net win is only 80% of his bankroll.

    To look at it another way, if his overall trip goal was to win $20,000
    and he had $250,000 to achieve that, if we tease the house edge out of it,
    his probability of success is 92.59%.

    To do that 10 out of 10 times has a probability of 46.32%.

    No big deal.

    It seems to me that he has just been lucky,
    using the word "luck" in the mathematical sense.

    Nothing that should raise any eyebrows.

    To conclude, nothing MDawg claimed makes him look like anything
    other than just a moderately lucky player.

    I submit for the consideration of the forum that this whole thread
    is replete with misunderstandings about what MDawg is claiming.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by coach belly
    He claims a net win not just every trip, but every casino at every trip.
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    What, Me Worry?

  19. #19
    How is this possible?

    Are you sure that this device doesn't defy the math?

    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post

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  20. #20
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Before the early 2000's, MDawg used to play blackjack and baccarat
    with roughly average results.

    In the early 2000's, he quit playing, partially over some losing trips
    and partially to focus on law school and real life matters.

    In 2018 he resumed playing and exclusively played baccarat.

    Since resuming play in 2018, he has made 9 or 10 Vegas trips.

    Each trip he played at approximately three casinos.

    He claims a net win not just every trip, but every casino at every trip.

    His total credit line between casinos he plays is about $250,000.

    His strategy on a daily basis is a net win for that day.

    To achieve this, he might play one shoe only or for 12 hours.

    Some days he might win as little as $100.

    Since 2018, he is up about $200,000 overall.

    This is an average win of about $20,000 per trip.

    That said, with ammunition of a quarter million dollars,
    it is not incredibly unlikely to do what he has done.

    For one thing, his net win is only 80% of his bankroll.

    To look at it another way, if his overall trip goal was to win $20,000
    and he had $250,000 to achieve that, if we tease the house edge out of it,
    his probability of success is 92.59%.

    To do that 10 out of 10 times has a probability of 46.32%.

    No big deal.

    It seems to me that he has just been lucky,
    using the word "luck" in the mathematical sense.

    Nothing that should raise any eyebrows.

    To conclude, nothing MDawg claimed makes him look like anything
    other than just a moderately lucky player.

    I submit for the consideration of the forum that this whole thread
    is replete with misunderstandings about what MDawg is claiming.
    The problem with the Wizards summation is that it was built on lies.

    I linked at that forum to posts where MDrag actually claims to have ammunition of only $25,000. Not $250,000

    MDrag claims to win $20,000 with ammunition of $25,000 on a regular basis and the Wizard would have written his analysis different had he known that.

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