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Thread: Las Vegas Sportsbook

  1. #61
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    In a state without legalized sports betting the poker world is crawling with books. These guys are often not near as sharp as online books and/or regulated casinos. There are also times when certain sports with certain bet types have weaknesses someone discovers. Maybe it is all bullshit though so they can freeroll off of your capital. I've known some rec bettors who just get by stiffing their bookies. Eventually they run out of bookies but they're easily +EV til then. lol only half way joking but I also know guys beating sports betting. The bookies dealing with 95% of bettors literally having no clue how to win or not caring.
    I'm not one of these guys that gives you shit.
    I don't agree with most of your political viewpoints but truth be told I don't really care about politics.
    That's Washington's Racquet and nobody on this forum can influence any of what they are going to do that would make any difference or matter.

    I only want to touch on two subjects that you bring up in your post.
    First, yes, you can stiff bookies and get away with it in some circumstances.
    That is certainly a positive play as long as you don't run into the wrong bookmaker on the street.
    You would want to be the muscle though.
    Not just some random working stiff.

    Next, the worst part of your post.
    You know a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy who is beating the book.
    lol... come on.
    Don't give me that bullshit and even if you do, is it benefiting you?
    I doubt that it is and I usually don't listen to someone telling me about how they know a guy.
    No offense to you though.
    I have no beefs with you as you have already stated that your main purpose in posting is to troll.
    Redietz made the same exact claim that his purpose in posting is to stir the pot or as you hip kids say... troll.
    Last edited by monet; 03-10-2021 at 01:53 PM.

  2. #62
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    In a state without legalized sports betting the poker world is crawling with books. These guys are often not near as sharp as online books and/or regulated casinos. There are also times when certain sports with certain bet types have weaknesses someone discovers. Maybe it is all bullshit though so they can freeroll off of your capital. I've known some rec bettors who just get by stiffing their bookies. Eventually they run out of bookies but they're easily +EV til then. lol only half way joking but I also know guys beating sports betting. The bookies dealing with 95% of bettors literally having no clue how to win or not caring.
    I'm not one of these guys that gives you shit.
    I don't agree with most of your political viewpoints but truth be told I don't really care about politics.
    That's Washington's Racquet and nobody on this forum can influence any of what they are going to do that would make any difference or matter.

    I only want to touch on two subjects that you bring up in your post.
    First, yes, you can stiff bookies and get away with it in some circumstances.
    That is certainly a positive play as long as you don't run into the wrong bookmaker on the street.
    You would want to be the muscle though.
    Not just some random working stiff.

    Next, the worst part of your post.
    You know a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy who is beating the book.
    lol... come on.
    Don't give me that bullshit and even if you do, is it benefiting you?
    I doubt that it is and I usually don't listen to someone telling me about how they know a guy.
    No offense to you though.
    I have no beefs with you as you have already stated that your main purpose in posting is to troll.
    Redietz made the same exact claim that his purpose in posting is to stir the pot or as you hip kids say... troll.
    If someone is smart enough to beat the poker games I'm playing in and claims to bet sports with an edge, I tend to believe them. Not exactly the same demographic as the group of dudes sitting around sports books in Las Vegas or boasting on the internet. Very possible they also degen bet so much they're -EV but it isn't that hard to beat sportsbooks. Beating them enough to make a living is a whole different thing. I hope you realize that.
    God bless this forum. You people are precious.

  3. #63
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    In a state without legalized sports betting the poker world is crawling with books. These guys are often not near as sharp as online books and/or regulated casinos. There are also times when certain sports with certain bet types have weaknesses someone discovers. Maybe it is all bullshit though so they can freeroll off of your capital. I've known some rec bettors who just get by stiffing their bookies. Eventually they run out of bookies but they're easily +EV til then. lol only half way joking but I also know guys beating sports betting. The bookies dealing with 95% of bettors literally having no clue how to win or not caring.
    I'm not one of these guys that gives you shit.
    I don't agree with most of your political viewpoints but truth be told I don't really care about politics.
    That's Washington's Racquet and nobody on this forum can influence any of what they are going to do that would make any difference or matter.

    I only want to touch on two subjects that you bring up in your post.
    First, yes, you can stiff bookies and get away with it in some circumstances.
    That is certainly a positive play as long as you don't run into the wrong bookmaker on the street.
    You would want to be the muscle though.
    Not just some random working stiff.

    Next, the worst part of your post.
    You know a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy who is beating the book.
    lol... come on.
    Don't give me that bullshit and even if you do, is it benefiting you?
    I doubt that it is and I usually don't listen to someone telling me about how they know a guy.
    No offense to you though.
    I have no beefs with you as you have already stated that your main purpose in posting is to troll.
    Redietz made the same exact claim that his purpose in posting is to stir the pot or as you hip kids say... troll.
    If someone is smart enough to beat the poker games I'm playing in and claims to bet sports with an edge, I tend to believe them. Not exactly the same demographic as the group of dudes sitting around sports books in Las Vegas or boasting on the internet. Very possible they also degen bet so much they're -EV but it isn't that hard to beat sportsbooks. Beating them enough to make a living is a whole different thing. I hope you realize that.

    Actually, I made no such claim, monet. You're making that up, as per usual.

    My purpose in posting is to correct egregious errors. And thus, directed at account:

    The "If someone is smart enough to beat the poker games..." comment -- account, you may want to ask around about how Stu Ungar did betting sports. If arguably the most brilliant player in history lost his ass betting sports, you may want to rethink your premise. Add Phil Ivey in there, also, as a lesson in humility.

    Second, it is technically incorrect to refer to sports betting as -EV in a math sense. if you want to apply that "-EV" specifically to the history of a particular individual after the fact of a sample of his betting, that is one thing -- that references his historical record and perhaps may be labeled -EV. But referencing sports betting in general with the "-EV" label is technically incorrect because sports betting is not primarily a game of math. It is a GAME OF OPINION. For example, if a particular bettor is also the spouse of an NBA official and knows how a game will be called in advance of the game, math has very little to do with whether that bettor wins or loses. His or her opinion is what matters, not the math.

    The idea that beating sports books is routinely done by some population of "sharps" -- LOL -- versus "squares" is a myth. That's jargon popularized by sports books and people who want to label themselves as "not the general population." The idea that one can import the lingo and concepts from Wall Street and somehow apply them to sports betting is fine if your goal is to sound like some subcultural hipster. It doesn't help anyone actually win.

    My best estimate, based on 50 years of sports handicapping in this country, is that there are, at the high end of the estimate, a couple hundred individuals or teams of people who win long-term. It may be fewer than a hundred. The formula is always the same. People who have the ability to win at a specific sport or two either fail to adjust and develop as years pass or they attempt to make more money by branching out and betting multiple sports other than the one or two at which they are expert. They either become dinosaurs or they crave more money/action, and they wind up losing.

  4. #64
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post

    I'm not one of these guys that gives you shit.
    I don't agree with most of your political viewpoints but truth be told I don't really care about politics.
    That's Washington's Racquet and nobody on this forum can influence any of what they are going to do that would make any difference or matter.

    I only want to touch on two subjects that you bring up in your post.
    First, yes, you can stiff bookies and get away with it in some circumstances.
    That is certainly a positive play as long as you don't run into the wrong bookmaker on the street.
    You would want to be the muscle though.
    Not just some random working stiff.

    Next, the worst part of your post.
    You know a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy who is beating the book.
    lol... come on.
    Don't give me that bullshit and even if you do, is it benefiting you?
    I doubt that it is and I usually don't listen to someone telling me about how they know a guy.
    No offense to you though.
    I have no beefs with you as you have already stated that your main purpose in posting is to troll.
    Redietz made the same exact claim that his purpose in posting is to stir the pot or as you hip kids say... troll.
    If someone is smart enough to beat the poker games I'm playing in and claims to bet sports with an edge, I tend to believe them. Not exactly the same demographic as the group of dudes sitting around sports books in Las Vegas or boasting on the internet. Very possible they also degen bet so much they're -EV but it isn't that hard to beat sportsbooks. Beating them enough to make a living is a whole different thing. I hope you realize that.

    Actually, I made no such claim, monet. You're making that up, as per usual.

    My purpose in posting is to correct egregious errors. And thus, directed at account:

    The "If someone is smart enough to beat the poker games..." comment -- account, you may want to ask around about how Stu Ungar did betting sports. If arguably the most brilliant player in history lost his ass betting sports, you may want to rethink your premise. Add Phil Ivey in there, also, as a lesson in humility.

    Second, it is technically incorrect to refer to sports betting as -EV in a math sense. if you want to apply that "-EV" specifically to the history of a particular individual after the fact of a sample of his betting, that is one thing -- that references his historical record and perhaps may be labeled -EV. But referencing sports betting in general with the "-EV" label is technically incorrect because sports betting is not primarily a game of math. It is a GAME OF OPINION. For example, if a particular bettor is also the spouse of an NBA official and knows how a game will be called in advance of the game, math has very little to do with whether that bettor wins or loses. His or her opinion is what matters, not the math.

    The idea that beating sports books is routinely done by some population of "sharps" -- LOL -- versus "squares" is a myth. That's jargon popularized by sports books and people who want to label themselves as "not the general population." The idea that one can import the lingo and concepts from Wall Street and somehow apply them to sports betting is fine if your goal is to sound like some subcultural hipster. It doesn't help anyone actually win.

    My best estimate, based on 50 years of sports handicapping in this country, is that there are, at the high end of the estimate, a couple hundred individuals or teams of people who win long-term. It may be fewer than a hundred. The formula is always the same. People who have the ability to win at a specific sport or two either fail to adjust and develop as years pass or they attempt to make more money by branching out and betting multiple sports other than the one or two at which they are expert. They either become dinosaurs or they crave more money/action, and they wind up losing.
    The people I know who beat sports are neither drug addicts nor have they slept under a bridge. When I say beat sports, I don't really know what all they bet but I am 100% confident they understand enough to beat sports or one area if that is their goal. It really is not that hard if you are selective in your bets. This may mean you don't get to bet much.

    I disagree about EV. Yes, it is not purely mathematical in sports betting and so EV can never be calculated in the same manner but it still exists. Just because we can't calculate it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

    Pretty sure pinnacle splits their bettors off into some version of sharps and squares and uses their action to adjust their lines accordingly. They do this by having a database of existing prices. If anyone takes prices that are better somewhere else, they're noted as a square (or whatever term is used internally). This type of data shows whether the bettor is sharp or not far faster than their historical win/loss record. If you want to use some different terminology for whatever reason, then that is your prerogative.

    In fact, what you talk about - you seem somewhat guilty of yourself. There are people who bet to win and understand the biases/math involved - they are sharps. Whether you wish to find a different labeling for this group is largely irrelevant. You're playing some goofy game of one-upmanship. I'll paraphrase you 'These guys are who use the word squares/bettors are posers unlike myself.' Lol.

    You are actually quite off in your 50 years of experience. A lot of people just bet bad lines and have no particular interest in a specific sport. Some smart people would say you're actually hurt by being an "expert" in your betting as it can possibly do little more than create biases.

    I'd say you really don't know as much about sports betting as you'd like to play off because you seem to imply most who bet sports profitably are handicappers. There are other methodologies. Out of the people I suspect who beat sports - only one handicaps and it is a very small segment of the bets offered. These bets tend to have smaller limits and the issue is more of finding the right books.

    Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I recall guys who have professionally bet sports. I don't know if any of them seriously handicapped outside of the one exception who specialized in a niche. The fact that you try and tell me how all these people end up failing is a bit of failure on your part. THey'll stop winning when lines become correct and there are no more bets to be had. (or books boot/limit them) They only bet when they see it as a +EV bet.
    Last edited by accountinquestion; 03-22-2021 at 07:58 AM.
    God bless this forum. You people are precious.

  5. #65
    I've been kind of hot the last few days, in Hockey, thanks to the dumpster fire that Buffalo is right now.
    However, if you look at the math, at beating the book, it is completely insane without inside information or promotions of some kind.
    You have to put in crazy amount of coin and if you are really good you get what 1% to 3% on your total coin in??
    It's worse than counting cards.
    I don't believe any schmuck from some home game is killing sports without the play of stiffing their bookie.
    Anyways... whatever.
    I put another 700 on the puck line against Buffalo.
    Rangers -1.5 to win 770.
    Buffalo has to win one of these days, I would imagine but since their star player and goalie are still out, I have to continue to keep betting against them.

  6. #66
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    I've been kind of hot the last few days, in Hockey, thanks to the dumpster fire that Buffalo is right now.
    However, if you look at the math, at beating the book, it is completely insane without inside information or promotions of some kind.
    You have to put in crazy amount of coin and if you are really good you get what 1% to 3% on your total coin in??
    It's worse than counting cards.
    I don't believe any schmuck from some home game is killing sports without the play of stiffing their bookie.
    Anyways... whatever.
    I put another 700 on the puck line against Buffalo.
    Rangers -1.5 to win 770.
    Buffalo has to win one of these days, I would imagine but since their star player and goalie are still out, I have to continue to keep betting against them.
    For clarification I don't know many people that I met from "home-games". The people I knew who hammered sports were longterm pro gamblers who played either online OR people who play in bigger games in one of the more populous states in the US. Not sure what homegame schmucks is referencing unless it is your personal acquaintances.

    You guys are right though - not much money in it. It really depends on the nunber of books and how bad their lines are. That is WHAT DETERMINES IT. Not how much fucking "skill" one has or "talent". Lol. Some of these people may not screw with it anymore. I don't know, but it isn't rocket science to find bad lines.

    I took up the challenge to beat a book. First book I was introduced to had a goofy as promotion that let me beat them for 2-3% per bet over the course of 1000 bets. Came close to winning far more. Of course most books not as bad with their promotions. It doesn't make me some sports betting genius, just good enough with basic math. <facepalm>
    God bless this forum. You people are precious.

  7. #67
    EMPTY NETTER!
    RANGERS WIN 5-3
    FUCKING PAY ME!
    lol... Buffalo has turned into a High School Team.

  8. #68
    I haven't bet sports since that mess with the Penguins messing me up.
    I played a little small ball with them today.
    Should of bet more I suppose.
    Beggars can't be Choosers.

    It's a little early.
    I don't mind counting chickens.
    Sometimes Parlays Win.

    WilliamHill... Pay Me MotherFuckers!

    Tampa Bay 7
    Chicago 4

    Florida 7
    Nashville 4

    (This game currently has 1minute to go)
    Hartford Whalers 5
    Minnesota North Stars 1
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  9. #69
    Worst Sportsbook of all time.
    They took forever and paid me 2 grand in 20 dollar bills.
    I hate WilliamHill.
    They're the Devil!
    On a positive note, they didn't ask me for ID or a Players Card.
    Stupid Rules... try to do that on an 8k Jackpot with Machines.

  10. #70
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Worst Sportsbook of all time.
    They took forever and paid me 2 grand in 20 dollar bills.
    I hate WilliamHill.
    They're the Devil!
    On a positive note, they didn't ask me for ID or a Players Card.
    Stupid Rules... try to do that on an 8k Jackpot with Machines.
    Blame the IRS for this, not the casinos.

  11. #71
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Blame the IRS for this, not the casinos.
    I certainly wasn't blaming the Casinos or Sportsbooks for this rule.
    My beef with WilliamHill is always the same 3 things.

    1.Bad Lines
    Almost always when compared to other books around town.
    Yesterday was a bit of an exception as those 3 NHL Lines were close to what Circa had.
    I was lazy and didn't want to take the time to go all the way downtown from what I was doing.
    It probably cost me about 400 dollars.
    The major difference was the +130 line was listed at +136 downtown at the time.
    Just the +6 difference, if all the other lines are the same, is a differential of 260 dollars on that 400 dollar parlay.

    2. They are slow to payout with the exception over at the Cosmo.

    3. Correlates with Number 2 on this list.
    Almost every WilliamHill book in Vegas runs on a Skeleton Bank.
    I swear they never have more than 8k in hundreds and many times that is a stretch.
    A few months ago they barely could scrape up 3k to pay me.
    Oh they got it done with 500 in hundos and the rest in 50's and 20's.
    How the Fuck does the 3rd largest Sportsbook in the world have no cash at the Window??

    This is the only book that has ever told me to come back later because they didn't have enough cash on hand to pay me at the time and the manager was going to be away for over an hour.
    I swear, its like dealing with a bookie on the streets of Cleveland or Pittsburgh.
    Whatever though... my fault for betting with them when I know better.
    I'm just ranting as usual.
    I do enjoy beating them but I am obviously the fool when I could get a better price elsewhere in about 90% of the situations.
    Last edited by monet; 04-28-2021 at 06:55 AM.

  12. #72
    Speaking of bookies in Pittsburgh area, I think MakingBook (who once posted on WoV, GREAT poster!) would have treated you better than that.

  13. #73
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Speaking of bookies in Pittsburgh area, I think MakingBook (who once posted on WoV, GREAT poster!) would have treated you better than that.
    I guess my comment was insulting to all street bookies in America lol.

  14. #74

  15. #75

  16. #76
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    What did you do?
    Deleted a post because of paranoia but posted it anyways, in another thread, because I don't like that feeling of being hypocritical in my thinking and actions.

  17. #77
    DON'T BET PARLAYS!

    Rockies 4
    Fish 11

    Nordiques 3
    Knights 6


    PAY ME!
    Woooo!

    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by monet; 06-10-2021 at 07:54 PM.

  18. #78
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    DON'T BET PARLAYS!

    Marlins 11
    Rockies 4

    Knights 6
    Nordiques 3

    PAY ME!
    Woooo!
    Good for you monet! Keep cashing!

    Talk about a goal that changed a series: Down 2 games to none and losing game 3, 2-1 late in the 3rd period, from behind the net, Jonathan Marchessault bounces a goal off the colorado goalie's back to tie the game and the Knights dominated from there.

  19. #79
    Reds Run Line -110
    Mets Run Line +146
    Brewers Run Line -132
    Dodgers Run Line -146

    Small Ball Today.
    72 to 162 dollar 4 team parlay.
    Undecided on amount.

    Get brave with 5 Teams and throw the Angles Run Line +115 on the ticket.

    Nothing too exotic here as the best payback is the +146 Run Line on the Mets.
    This gets evened out by the Dodgers Run Line at -146.

    The 5 Teamer gets you almost 29 to 1 on your dough.
    Take the Big Dog off at +146 and it drops down to 11 to 1
    Take the Angels Run Line off at +115 and it pays 13 to 1
    If you want to play real scared, play the 3 Favorites and get 4.65 to 1 odds on the 3 Teamer.
    Or better yet... stay out of the book and hide in your basement.

    Whatever... DO NOT BET PARLAYS!
    Last edited by monet; 06-11-2021 at 05:55 AM.

  20. #80
    Turns out, the best way to play this was to be scared, as the 3 Run Line Favorites covered, paying about 4.65 to 1.
    The Mets and the Angles won but did not cover the run line.
    Truth be told, I put the Knights Puck Line on the ticket as well making it a six teamer.
    I lost 162 dollars.

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