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Thread: Las Vegas Sportsbook

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Interesting note today is that Boyd had the Lightning at +164 on the Puck Line, WilliamHill had them at +150 and Circa had them at +155.
    See how Evil those Brits at WilliamHill can be?
    That's literally a 28% differential, if I am mathing correctly... tableplay to the rescue.
    That can't be right... Fuck... 14%?
    Well we have (64-50)/50 which is a 28% better deal at the Boyd, betting on a Puck Line wager for the Lightning than at William Hill as you correctly stated (It's been years since I made a sports wager but I think I got the notation right).

  2. #22
    Lightning are on a roll. Vas with 3 straight shutouts. Tampa has definitely become a hockey town, even with the Bucs SB win. Honestly see more Lightning gear being worn here than I did Flyers in Philly.

    And keep fighting the good fight on the drink tickets.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Well we have (64-50)/50 which is a 28% better deal at the Boyd, betting on a Puck Line wager for the Lightning than at William Hill as you correctly stated (It's been years since I made a sports wager but I think I got the notation right).
    At first glance this is what my brain immediately computed.
    However, a few moments later my brain or the voices in my brain said it's 14 dollars extra on every hundred dollars bet.
    This would bring it to a 14% differential.
    So I think the correct answer is a 14% difference?
    I think the point is that if an individual is going to make a living betting with the book they better damn well get the best price they can every time.
    Otherwise its like playing a Video Poker game where they cut you on the Full House.
    Sort of like 9/7 Double Bonus instead of 10/7.
    Obviously, it can be completely worse in the book as it seems to be able to range from 5% to 20% depending on who you bet with.
    Of course this isn't new information by any means.
    Everyone pretty much knows this but it is good to beat it into our heads or reinforce it mentally, so the individual gambles better or dare I say smarter.
    And we also have the issue of how much you can bet without problems.
    Sure, you might be able to get down for 10k on some good line but how long before they cut you off?
    So that begs the question if it is better to bet lower amounts with more books and take a cut in price?
    I'm sure redietz knows the answer.
    The question is, will he disclose this information publicly?
    It seems obvious that if someone is going to do it they need a home base with all current lines and a team of runners.
    Too complicated and too much work for me.
    No wonder they just sell the picks to the suckers.
    Much easier with no risk.
    And technically its a legal scam.
    Last edited by monet; 03-03-2021 at 11:42 AM.

  4. #24
    I like tableplay he is a smart guy. People should take a closer look at some of the advice that he gives which is sound. If people are waiting for redietz to chime in on the ABC of sports betting you just might have to open your wallet first.

  5. #25
    I think its a close call between Monet and Tableplay......Monet has a small edge, he's more blunt and is a pioneer. Tableplay seems to be Monet's sidekick. He rarely posts when Monet isn't around and tends to go awol in sync...No offense intended towards Tableplay, he's a great poster, with a lot of knowledge especially with numbers.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Ozzy View Post
    I think its a close call between Monet and Tableplay......Monet has a small edge, he's more blunt and is a pioneer. Tableplay seems to be Monet's sidekick. He rarely posts when Monet isn't around and tends to go awol in sync...No offense intended towards Tableplay, he's a great poster, with a lot of knowledge especially with numbers.
    tableplay was here before I was.
    Interesting that it was only a couple months prior.
    I didn't know about this site until the Wizard banished me.
    I didn't know of any gambling forums other than WoV and I barely knew that forum.
    I did know about Mikes math and his site that could calculate VP strategies.
    I was too busy actually playing inside the Casinos, Video Games or doing outdoor activities.
    Partying a bit too much as well to care about some online bullshit.
    I've got a bit of an addictive personality so posting on a forum tends to become addictive for me.
    Although, I can't handle too many of them at once.

    Let's be honest.
    tableplay is smarter.
    tableplay is good people along with many others on this site.
    Even members who I bash are very knowledgeable.
    I just don't agree with how they portray themselves online compared to real life.

  7. #27
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Well we have (64-50)/50 which is a 28% better deal at the Boyd, betting on a Puck Line wager for the Lightning than at William Hill as you correctly stated (It's been years since I made a sports wager but I think I got the notation right).
    At first glance this is what my brain immediately computed.
    However, a few moments later my brain or the voices in my brain said it's 14 dollars extra on every hundred dollars bet.
    This would bring it to a 14% differential.
    So I think the correct answer is a 14% difference?
    I think it gets down to what we want to define Monet. The amount won at the Boyd is $64 and the amount won at William Hill is $50 if the bet wins which is 28% (for each hundred wagered). So that's just a definition really. It's also true that you receive $14 more dollars for each $100 bet at the Boyd versus William Hill if the bet wins. The 1st definition is "Money Won % Differential per bet of the same amount" and the 2nd definition is "win amount differential divided by $100 wager" both are correct IMHO, they are just different metrics. I.E. Definition 1 takes into account just the win amounts (the amounts wagered are the same for both bets so they aren't considered). If you find the 2nd definition (14%) more useful for defining how much one bet is better versus the other you should use it for your evaluations IMHO.

    Thanks Bosox, I appreciate the complement and I think the same of you and Monet.
    Last edited by tableplay; 03-03-2021 at 01:41 PM.

  8. #28
    Originally Posted by Ozzy View Post
    I think its a close call between Monet and Tableplay......Monet has a small edge, he's more blunt and is a pioneer. Tableplay seems to be Monet's sidekick. He rarely posts when Monet isn't around and tends to go awol in sync...No offense intended towards Tableplay, he's a great poster, with a lot of knowledge especially with numbers.
    Cheers Ozzy, thanks.

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by Ozzy View Post
    I think its a close call between Monet and Tableplay......Monet has a small edge, he's more blunt and is a pioneer. Tableplay seems to be Monet's sidekick. He rarely posts when Monet isn't around and tends to go awol in sync...No offense intended towards Tableplay, he's a great poster, with a lot of knowledge especially with numbers.
    tableplay was here before I was.
    Interesting that it was only a couple months prior.
    I didn't know about this site until the Wizard banished me.
    I didn't know of any gambling forums other than WoV and I barely knew that forum.
    I did know about Mikes math and his site that could calculate VP strategies.
    I was too busy actually playing inside the Casinos, Video Games or doing outdoor activities.
    Partying a bit too much as well to care about some online bullshit.
    I've got a bit of an addictive personality so posting on a forum tends to become addictive for me.
    Although, I can't handle too many of them at once.

    Let's be honest.
    tableplay is smarter.
    tableplay is good people along with many others on this site.
    Even members who I bash are very knowledgeable.
    I just don't agree with how they portray themselves online compared to real life.
    Both you guys are very interesting, I just tend to be very blunt and straight forward. Long winter battling back injury for most of it, lots of extra time staying indoors immobile. I'm generally very active not so much of late. Making the best of the situation.

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    I think it gets down to what we want to define Monet. The amount won at the Boyd is $64 and the amount won at William Hill is $50 if the bet wins which is 28% (for each hundred wagered). So that's just a definition really. It's also true that you receive $14 more dollars for each $100 bet at the Boyd versus William Hill if the bet wins. The 1st definition is "Money Won % Differential per bet of the same amount" and the 2nd definition is "win amount differential divided by $100 wager" both are correct IMHO, they are just different metrics. I.E. Definition 1 takes into account just the win amounts (the amounts wagered are the same for both bets so they aren't considered). If you find the 2nd definition (14%) more useful for defining how much one bet is better versus the other you should use it for your evaluations IMHO.

    Thanks Bosox, I appreciate the complement and I think the same of you and Monet.
    Interesting and confusing.
    164 dollars or 150 dollars.
    When I look at the cash in my hand it doesn't look like I have 28% more cash.
    One thing is for sure.
    If I bet 1000 dollars, I get 1640 compared to 1500 back.
    That's 140 dollars.
    That's a big deal.
    Multiply that by a few hundred thousand and you'll begin to cry if you're betting with the WilliamHill line.
    Last edited by monet; 03-03-2021 at 01:55 PM.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by Ozzy View Post
    Both you guys are very interesting, I just tend to be very blunt and straight forward. Long winter battling back injury for most of it, lots of extra time staying indoors immobile. I'm generally very active not so much of late. Making the best of the situation.
    Yeah... you should post more.
    Give up that hidden information you greedy prick

  12. #32
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Interesting and confusing.
    164 dollars or 150 dollars.
    When I look at the cash in my hand it doesn't look like I have 28% more cash.
    That's right Monet. You have 9.3% more cash. However you have 28% more winnings ;-).

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    That's right Monet. You have 9.3% more cash. However you have 28% more winnings ;-).
    When you put it that way... it makes more sense.
    Thanks!

    I knew I was right but I was getting confused for some reason.
    Stupid Brain.

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    That's right Monet. You have 9.3% more cash. However you have 28% more winnings ;-).
    When you put it that way... it makes more sense.
    Thanks!

    I knew I was right but I was getting confused for some reason.
    Stupid Brain.
    That's teamwork - we iteratively arrived at clarity.

  15. #35
    Monet, DannyJ another smart guy also pointed out to you a couple of weeks ago about different lines at various sportsbooks.

  16. #36
    You guys do know that you can shop the lines from home (or wherever you might be) right? 2 pages worth of Vegas casino lines.
    Vegasinsider.com Then just hit up the 1 or 2 that looked most promising.

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    You guys do know that you can shop the lines from home (or wherever you might be) right? 2 pages worth of Vegas casino lines.
    Vegasinsider.com Then just hit up the 1 or 2 that looked most promising.
    You are a wealth of knowledge.
    Thank you for the education.

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    You guys do know that you can shop the lines from home (or wherever you might be) right? 2 pages worth of Vegas casino lines.
    Vegasinsider.com Then just hit up the 1 or 2 that looked most promising.
    You are a wealth of knowledge.
    Thank you for the education.
    Well, why the hell run around to a half dozen sportsbooks like you seem to do. Makes no sense.

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Well, why the hell run around to a half dozen sportsbooks like you seem to do. Makes no sense.
    Not that it matters or that you would care.
    The puck line is a bit fragile.
    I've seen it move 10 points from me betting 500 dollars.
    Betting 1000 dollars or more, at many of these books, can be a problem if you didn't know.
    Winning or even getting paid over 3000 dollars on a ticket can cause trouble as well.
    Doesn't matter... keep doing what you do.
    I'm just happy to be here like MDawg.
    More Casinos = More Drink Tickets... that's important.

    Vegasinsider.com ---- thanks I got it.
    Any other pro tips?
    AS IF!

    Perhaps you could start your own thread where you show us your picks and how much you bet and how bad you beat the book.
    That would be nice.
    I'm looking forward to it.
    Please try to post the picks and bets with ample time for us to follow your lead.
    None of this Bullshit where you just post the picks or how many units you are up.
    I want to see actual bets and how much cash you are up or down.
    Otherwise, why bother?
    I mean what are you going to display... you're up 10 units for 3 months which translates to 100 dollars... not worth anyone's time.
    Last edited by monet; 03-03-2021 at 07:16 PM.

  20. #40
    I've been reading more on the subject of the Sportsbook and how to beat it.
    Turns out that when you look at the numbers its a horror show.
    You can beat it but the odds are insurmountable just clearly looking at the math and what is required.
    Talk about depressing.
    You literally need 100 bets per month.
    You need to pick 53% winners.
    The difference between picking 53% and 54% winners is millions of dollars.
    Even the best of the best have a hard time averaging a 55% win rate.
    The pain goes on and on.
    On paper, it is one of the biggest mountains to climb that I think I have ever seen from a gambling standpoint.
    It's not impossible and a select few do beat it but at best if you work your ass off it is more of a supplemental hobby.
    The individual has to shop around to get the best line every single time and should get every promotion possible.
    You basically need fixed games, inside information or you have to cheat in some fashion... like they do at online poker.

    Let's say you want to make 50k per year.
    You need at least a 500k bankroll dedicated to sports only.
    You need to bet about 100 bets per month and win 53% of the time.
    You really need to win 54% of the time when you look at it.
    You'll have to average about 1500 dollars per bet if you are laying juice.
    You have to find the dogs... You have to find the dogs.... ummm yeah, you have to find the dogs.
    You need kickbacks in some form.
    None of this is new information but after refreshing my memory I realize why I dismiss this line of work.
    Ok Redietz, the individual may want to stop betting parlays no matter how fun they are as you will need to pick 55% to overcome the cut in payback.

    Paying for sports picks only compounds the problem.
    If you pay for your picks you will have to have a win rate of at least 55% but most likely you will need a 56% win rate.
    I used to joke around but now I feel that Touts or Touting Services are Evil Incarnate.
    Talk about Vampires.
    Integrity Sports My Ass!
    lol INTEGRITY... talk about oxymoron.
    Let's make these bastards pay juice on top of the juice they are already paying.
    Evil Carpetbagger Bullshit.
    How do you live with yourself promoting that type of business and claim you are some progressive social justice warrior??
    Fuck.
    It makes Slavery look like kindergarten.
    Last edited by monet; 03-07-2021 at 07:57 AM.

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