Dan Druff's 2021 MLB Picks

[Dan Druff]

2-0 yesterday.

I have five today.

Milwaukee (Burnes) +105 at San Diego (Paddack)
Yankees (Taillon) -123 vs. Atlanta (Morton)
Cubs (Arrieta) +115 vs. Mets (T. Walker)
Baltimore (Harvey) +109 at Miami (Neidert)
Kansas City (Keller) -101 vs. Tampa Bay (Hill)

[Dan Druff]

Went 4-1 in those picks tonight, only losing Kansas City. Nice last 2 days.

[Dan Druff]

Record update:

Through 4/10: 6-5 (+1.878 units)

4/11: 0-2 (-2.000 units)
4/13: 1-0 (+1.490 units)
4/14: 0-2 (-2.000 units)
4/15: 1-1 (+0.660 units)
4/16: 1-1 (+0.190 units)
4/19: 2-0 (+2.396 units)
4/20: 4-1 (+3.103 units)

4/11-4/20: 9-7 (+3.839 units)

OVERALL: 15-12 (+5.717 units)

[Dan Druff]

Obviously happy with my MLB performance over the past 2 days, so let's keep it going.

Here are two picks, one starting soon, the other a bit later:

Cincinnati (Mahle) -1.5 +122 vs. Arizona (M. Kelly)
Kansas City (Junis) -101 vs. Tampa Bay (Wacha)

Yesterday my one loss was attempting to fade a has-been Rays pitcher -- though the loss was because the Royals pitching was horrendous. I was right about the Rays pitcher being bad. Anyway, hopefully we make up for it today against Wacha.

[Dan Druff]

Bizarre day, essentially breaking even (losing 0.01 units).

Cincy went into the 9th up 3-0, but horrible closer Amir Garrett gave up a 3-run HR, and the wheels fell off from there (at that point it was very unlikely to win by 2 anyway, since Cincy was the home team.)

KC started off down 4-0 right away in the 1st, got it to 4-3, then fell behind 6-3, but a nice comeback brought them up 7-6. Their crap bullpen saw them fall behind 8-7, only to score 2 in the 9th to win in a walkoff. I'll take it.

[Dan Druff]

Just one baseball pick today.

Taking the Cubs to sweep. Bit of a risky play with the inconsistent Williams, but Lucchesi isn't exactly going to challenge for the Cy Young this year, either.

Cubs +103 vs. Mets (Lucchesi)

[Dan Druff]

Cubs won in extras.

----------------



Oakland's 11-game winning streak ends today.

Don't fear Jorge Lopez's bad numbers (both 2021 and career).

It will happen. Trust me.

Baltimore +120 (J. Lopez) vs. Oakland (Irvin)

[Dan Druff]

A rare early season MLB totals pick:

Minnesota (J. Happ) vs. Pittsburgh (Brubaker) - Under 8 -114

[Dan Druff]

Detroit (Mize) +100 vs. Kansas City (Minor)

[Dan Druff]

1-2 yesterday, only hitting the under.

Today:

Atlanta (Smyly) vs. Arizona (Bumgarner) - Under 9 -120

[Dan Druff]

This one is a bit later:

Tampa Bay (Honeywell) -133 vs. Toronto (R. Ray)

[Dan Druff]

Won the Tampa pick, Atlanta got rained out.

No picks today.

[Dan Druff]

Time to fade Rich Hil again.

Last minute:

Oakland (Manaea) -107 vs. Tampa (Hill)

[Dan Druff]

Won yesterday.

Let's go back the other way with Tampa, in my 3rd consecutive pick involving them.

Tampa (Wacha) -112 vs. Oakland (Montas)

And yes, it pains me to put favorite money on Wacha.

[redietz]

I'm going to mention this since it's historically unprecedented. The to-date ATS record of 2021 home favorites in baseball is 77-141 or thereabouts, depending on some marginal dog/fave flip-flops. The to-date ATS record of 2021 away favorites is 51-74 or thereabouts. This is wild.

As Todd might agree, I do put a little of the blame on the extra-inning rules, which reduce the advantage superior teams have heading into extra innings. The rules provide charity for the inferior team.

Those who know me have a pretty good idea what I'll be doing. I just want to mention that, in general, I do not bet baseball. I have never really been comfortable betting games where the playing fields are all different shapes and sizes. The idea of betting that kind of thing on a regular basis doesn't sit well with me.

[Dan Druff]

I'm surprised that the home favorites are doing so badly ATS, given that the extra innings rule benefits the home team big time. However, I know you're saying home FAVORITES, so yes, I will agree that the rule does help the worse teams level the playing field. Interesting.

Funny that your post came on the heels of my winning a home favorite (albeit a very small favorite).

Anyway, no MLB picks today. All NBA for me this evening.

[Dan Druff]

Texas (Gibson) -102 vs. Boston (M. Perez)
Colorado (Senzatela) +123 at Arizona (Weaver)

[Dan Druff]

1-1 yesterday, winning Texas and losing Colorado, which had a 3-0 early lead.

Today:

Pittsburgh (Brubaker) -115 vs. St. Louis (Gant)
Cincinnati (Miley) -126 vs. Cubs (Arrieta)
Miami (P. Lopez) -126 at Washington (Lester)

Yes, Jon Lester is pitching today. Obvious fade. Also Pablo Lopez is legit good.

[Dan Druff]

Won only the Cincinnati pick on the 30th. No picks past four days.

Here's my record. Oddly, on all days I made picks since 4/21, I won exactly one game each time.

Previous record through 4/20: 15-12 (+5.717 units)

4/21: 1-1 (-0.010)
4/22: 1-0 (+1.030)
4/23: 1-2 (-1.123)
4/24: 1-0 (+0.752)
4/26: 1-0 (+0.935)
4/27: 1-0 (+0.893)
4/29: 1-1 (-0.020)
4/30: 1-2 (-1.206)
No picks 5/1-5/4

TOTAL 4/21-5/4: 8-6 (+1.251 units)

GRAND TOTAL: 23-18 (+6.968 units)

[Dan Druff]

Let's jump back in after zero picks the past 4 days, and start with an under:

Boston (Martin Perez) vs. Detroit (Mize) - Under 9 -115