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Thread: Dan Druff's 2021 MLB Picks

  1. #141
    Won yesterday easily.

    Today:

    Okay, here are two today... a battle of good AL teams, plus an over.

    Tampa (Rasmussen) +100 vs. Toronto (Manoah)
    Houston (Urquidy) at Angels (Naughton) - Over 9 -120

    Manoah had a great outing last time (8 shutout innings, 1 hit), but it was his first strong outing in awhile, and he hasn't pitched in 8 days. Expect a letdown here against the Rays and the underrated Drew Rasmussen. A lot of variance on this line, but you can get +100 on BOL right now.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #142
    Split 'em yesterday. Won the over.

    Here is a rare late season dog pick today, plus actually fading the Giants at near even money. Yes, it's THAT Scott Kazmir on the mound.

    Yes, it's actually a pitcher named Junk.


    San Diego (V. Velazquez) -110 vs. San Francisco (Kazmir)
    Angels (Junk) +184 vs. Houston (Luis Garcia)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #143
    Angels were up 5-3 in the 8th, then had TWO chances at easy walkoff runs in extras. Lost in the 12th, and I went 0-2.

    I hate to repeat yesterday's mistake backing the Angels, but...

    Angels (Cobb) +148 vs. Houston (McCullers)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #144
    Okay, squeaked by with that last Angels pick, winning and taking the +148 dog.

    Here's another +148 for you.

    Josiah Gray was sent to the Nationals by the Dodgers in the Scherzer/Turner trade, and.... so far he hasn't been very good. His ERA is near 6.00, and he had 4 straight starts recently where he gave up 5-6 ER in 3-5 innings. Ouch.

    However, his last start looked much better -- 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8K. Granted, it was against the Marlins, but it was his control plaguing him the prior two starts, and he righted that ship.

    But you know who also hasn't been very good lately? German Marquez, who has pitched poorly in 6 of his past 8 starts, including the last 2, one of which was against these same Washignton Nationals.

    In a meaningless battle of two teams with clinched losing records, go with the dog here.

    Washington (Jo. Gray) +148 at Colorado (G. Marquez)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #145
    Won again... and once again there was drama in the 9th.

    Okay, so I've hit 2 decent dogs in a row, let's keep it going...

    Atlanta (Morton) vs. Philadelphia (Wheeler) - Under 7.5 -110
    Kansas City (Singer) -118 vs. Cleveland (Civale)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #146
    Hit 'em both yesterday.

    Just one today... I think.

    Baltimore (Lowther) vs. Boston (Eovaldi) - Under 9.5 -110

    Always felt Eovaldi was overrated and overpaid, and I still think that. However, he did roll off 7 straight decent starts from August 11th to September 19, before getting shellacked by the Yankees last time out. But we will forgive that, and this is a much easier matchup.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #147
    Won again yesterday.

    Let's attempt to continue the streak.

    The one starts at 3:35pm PDT.

    Pittsburgh (Yajure) vs. Cubs (Steele) - Under 8.5 -105

    Battle of the failteams. Battle of the rookies.

    Both profile as ones who can probably handle fail lineups fairly well, but struggle against tough offensive squads. Steele has particularly good stuff (52K in 50 IP this year), but his command has been off, and he's given up a lot of HR lately.

    Wouldn't be surprising to see both of them pitch well here, though neither will be in for a lot of innings.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #148
    Really annoying. Pittsburgh didn't score, as I thought might happen. Cubs hammered Yajure and were up 7-0 after 3. Yet here we are in the 9th, and it's only 9-0. One fewer run and I would've won anyway, most likely. Oh well.

    Time to fire on another one I like

    Battle of the has-beens:

    Arizona (Bumgarner) at San Francisco (Kazmir) - Over 8.5 -110
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #149
    1-1 yesterday.

    I really hate unders like these, but it's hard to ignore this one, because it looks pretty good.

    Philadelphia (Suarez) at Miami (S. Alcantara) - Under 6.5 -110

    I realllllllly hate betting under 6.5 because you are fucked if the score goes 3-3.

    Both of these pitchers have looked excellent recently, aside from one not-so-good one for Alcantara last time out at Tampa. But even in that one Alcantara didn't walk anyone, and his control has been excelelnt lately. Suarez is coming off a CG shutout against the Pirates.

    This is a meaningless game in the standings, as both teams are clinched out of the postseason. Only Dodgers/Giants games matter at this point in the NL.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #150
    Well, as much as I hated the 6.5 total, it covered. Another win.

    Guys, look at this weirdness.

    At 7:45am, line on Pittsburgh Pirates was +153. Then it slowly drifted down to +140, then back up to +145.

    Then POW a 10-point drop a few minutes ago.

    Now +135 pretty much everywhere. I was in the process of analyzing it and getting close to posting this pick when that happened. Ouch.

    Sharps seem to like this one. Public is on the Reds, behind Mahle, who had a pretty good year (13-6, 3.54 ERA, 204/62 K-BB ratio), against the 100-loss Pirates and a pitcher who, aside from decent 2 starts (one of them being last time), has gotten hit pretty hard.

    But let's go with it...

    Pittsburgh (Kranick) +135 vs. Cincinnati (Mahle)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #151
    Came back from down 5-0 to win yesterday. Nice!

    Here's some totals for the final MLB game.

    Every single baseball game starts between 12:05pm and 12:20pm PDT.

    Angels (Detmers) at Seattle (Ty Andreson) - OVER 7.5 -110
    Miami (P. Lopez) vs. Philadelpha (Falter) - UNDER 7.5 -120
    White Sox (Cease) vs. Destroit (T. Alexander) - UNDER 8 -110

    These should, for the most part, be my last picks, though I may through an occasional pick out during the postseason.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #152
    Been a long time since I posted my record!

    Through 6/25: 53-46-4 (+7.89 units)

    Since then:

    6/27: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    6/28: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    6/30: 1-1 (-0.05 units)
    7/01: 1-0 (+1.75 units)
    7/02: 2-1 (+0.80 units)
    7/03: 2-0 (+1.93 units)
    7/04: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    7/05: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    7/07: NO BET (pitcher didn't go)
    7/08: 1-0 (+0.98 units)
    7/09: 1-1 (-0.05 units)
    7/10: 1-0 (+1.05 units)
    7/11: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    7/21: 1-0 (+0.88 units)
    7/23: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    7/24: 1-0 (+0.74 units)
    7/26: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
    7/27: 1-1 (-0.10 units)
    7/28: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
    7/30: 0-2-1 (-2.00 units)
    7/31: 2-0 (+2.11 units)
    8/02: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/03: 1-0 (+1.43 units)
    8/05: 1-1 (+0.18 units)
    8/06: 3-0 (+3.60 units)
    8/07: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/09: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/10: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    8/11: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/13: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    8/14: 1-0 (+1.28 units)
    8/17: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/18: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
    8/19: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/26: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    8/29: 1-0 (+0.78 units)
    8/30: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
    9/03: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    9/04: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
    9/07: 1-1 (-0.08 units)
    9/16: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    9/17: 2-0 (+1.70 units)
    9/18: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
    9/20: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
    9/21: 1-1 (-0.17 units)
    9/22: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    9/23: 1-0 (+1.48 units)
    9/27: 1-0 (+1.48 units)
    9/28: 2-0 (+1.76 units)
    9/29: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
    9/30: 1-1 (-0.09 units)
    10/1: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
    10/2: 1-0 (+1.35 units)
    10/3: 2-1 (+0.82 units)

    TOTAL 6/27-10/3: 42-36-1 (+6.31 units)

    GRAND TOTAL: 95-82-5 (+14.20 units)

    Total games bet with result: 182

    Total ROI: +7.80%

    The end helped. In the final 12 games I bet, I went 10-2 with a +8.68 unit profit.

    Very solid season. Only real trouble occurred between August 7 and August 26, where I went 2-11 and lost 8.89 units.

    I won't be betting much on the playoffs.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #153
    Now What, Half Smoke??

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