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Thread: Dan Druff's 2021 MLB Picks

  1. #1
    Had a nice end to last year's season.

    Let's keep it going.

    2 picks (so far) for the early opening day games:

    Texas (Gibson) +140 at Kansas City (Keller)
    Philadelphia (Nola) -121 vs. Atlanta (Fried)
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  2. #2
    Wow. Texas breaks out to a 5-0 lead in the first, and it's 5-5 by the end of the first.

    Then it's 8-5 Texas in the third, and they end up losing 14-10.

    What a game.

    Philly was close, but won thanks to that idiotic extra innings rule with an auto-runner on 2nd. That HUGELY favors the home team, because of how easy it is to push a single run across if you have a guy on 2nd with 0 outs. So if you know you only need 1 run to win, you just focus upon moving him over 180 feet, and it's a walkoff.

    Horrible rule. Extra innings always favors the home team anyway (because the home team knows exactly what they need to do in order to win/tie), but this just exaggerates that situation. Plus it's just stupid.

    Anyway, this does figure into the betting in close matchups, where you might want to give a little more consideration to the home team. Today that made the difference.

    Because Philly was -121, I start off slightly down on the MLB season, despite going 1-1.
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  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Wow. Texas breaks out to a 5-0 lead in the first, and it's 5-5 by the end of the first.

    Then it's 8-5 Texas in the third, and they end up losing 14-10.

    What a game.

    Philly was close, but won thanks to that idiotic extra innings rule with an auto-runner on 2nd. That HUGELY favors the home team, because of how easy it is to push a single run across if you have a guy on 2nd with 0 outs. So if you know you only need 1 run to win, you just focus upon moving him over 180 feet, and it's a walkoff.

    Horrible rule. Extra innings always favors the home team anyway (because the home team knows exactly what they need to do in order to win/tie), but this just exaggerates that situation. Plus it's just stupid.

    Anyway, this does figure into the betting in close matchups, where you might want to give a little more consideration to the home team. Today that made the difference.

    Because Philly was -121, I start off slightly down on the MLB season, despite going 1-1.
    Jesus. I haven't even been what I would call a, "Casual," baseball fan for a few years now, though I was really into it in the early-2000's.

    If the goal is to speed up the game and/or preserve pitchers for future games, why not just allow for ties? That's all. I know that traditionalists would probably hate it if you said a game can not go past 12 innings, or what have you, but it would be better than this stupid rule.

    Speaking of extras favoring the home team anyway, would you be in favor of the first team to bat being decided by coin toss for extras? They could then choose to bat first or defer. Don't know why you'd ever choose to bat first, but maybe there's a reason a team might do that. I guess if you (home team) batted to end the ninth you might choose to bat first (if you won the toss) to force the other team to sub pitchers or keep the guy they had out there to close the ninth.
    Last edited by Mission146; 04-02-2021 at 05:55 AM.

  4. #4
    White Sox (Keuchel) +102 at Angels (Heaney)

    Seattle (Kikuchi) -114 vs. San Francisco (Cueto)

    Note that Kikuchi has added speed to his fastball, and has thrown in a new cutter this year. He looked really good in the spring, and it should be noted that despite a pretty bad 2020, one bright spot was only allowing 3 HR in 47 IP. He had allowed 36 in 161 IP the year before! Cueto, on the other hand, looks close to done.
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  5. #5
    Split 'em again on Friday, winning the White Sox and losing the Seattle game.

    Today:

    Detroit (Mize) +128 vs. Minnesota (Happ)

    This starts at 10:10am PDT. Happ had COVID in February and early March, and therefore only pitched 5 innings in spring training. He's also old (38 1/2). Mize had an 8.36 ERA in the spring and battled with some control issues, but also struck out 23 (!!)
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  6. #6
    Won the Detroit pick in (stupid) extra innings, again benefiting from having the home team.

    Went through the baseball games today, only one game jumps out at me:

    Miami (P. Lopez) +106 vs. St. Louis (Flaherty)

    Miami has been a disaster thus far, and is a far cry from the surprising squad last year. They've won just 1 game, and their offense has been super flat.

    With that said, I like them today, mainly because of the pitching matchup. Flaherty has lost velocity and might be experiencing dead arm issues. He got walloped for 6 runs in 4 innings against the Reds, and he didn't look particularly good in spring training, either -- with velocity down in all games compared to last year. (It should also be noted that he wasn't very good last year, either.)

    Pablo Lopez looked sharp in the spring, and even added a breaking ball for this season. Dude's stock is on its way up. He fired 5 strong innings against the Rays in his first outing.

    Look for the Marlins to salvage one in this 3-game series, after dropping the first 2 at home.
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  7. #7
    Another one with two pitchers going opposite directions.

    Milwaukee (Woodruff) -104 at Cubs (Hendricks)

    The wind will be blowing out 12mph at Wrigley today, but both pitchers are about equally prone to the longball, so that's not really a huge factor. However, Woodruff is throwing harder than ever this year, and while his numbers were only okayish in the spring, and he got hit somewhat hard by the Twins in his first start, he still was throwing well and looking good. I expect him to turn it around soon.

    Kyle Hendricks, who got hammered in his first start, is seeing decreased velocity this year, and also pitched poorly in the spring.

    The Brewers have the edge in this one.
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  8. #8
    Split again. Won Milwaukee, lost Miami.

    Likely no picks today. I made some on NBA though.
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  9. #9
    Early day MLB:


    Yankees (German) -114 at Tampa Bay (Archer)

    Seattle (Kikuchi) +160 at Minnesota (Pineda)

    St. Louis (C. Martinez) -108 vs. Milwaukee (Houser)

    Some notes:

    Kikuchi is throwing over 97 mph and struck out 10 in his last outing. This Japanese transplant has been a disappointment so far, but this looks like his breakout year. He looked great in the spring. Pineda had a .378 batting average against in the spring, though he looked decent in his first regular season outing,


    Chris Archer is a complete mess. Didn't pitch in 2020, pitched poorly in 2019, and looked pretty bad in his first start. Domingo German didn't do great in his first start, but he was stellar in the spring. Pineda had a .378 batting average against in the spring, though he looked decent in his first regular season outing.

    Judge and Urshela are questionable for the Yankees, and the Rays are without Kevin Kiermaier and Ji-Man Choi. Donaldson is out for the Twins. Goldschmidt is probable for the Cards.

    All of these games are in the morning.
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  10. #10
    Well, I squeaked by without disaster in MLB, and only took a small loss. Seattle won (on the road!) in extras, so that +160 negates the two losses. Archer came out in the 3rd due to injury, and the Yankees bats were asleep anyway. He didn't have a chance to melt down. St. Louis/Mil game was close until late, but somehow Avisail Garcia was hitting the ball hard today.

    Anyway, here's one more:

    Arizona (R. Smith) +119 vs. Cincinnati (J. Hoffman)

    Look up Jeff Hoffman's career numbers and his 2021 spring numbers. Ignore his last start.
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  11. #11
    Arizona won yesterday, giving me a winning day despite the 2-2 record.

    Here's my record so far:

    4/1: 1-1 (-0.174 units)
    4/2: 1-1 (+0.020 units)
    4/6: 1-0 (+1.280 units)
    4/7: 1-1 (-0.038 units)
    4/10: 2-2 (+0.790 units)

    Total: 6-5 (+1.878 units)

    ---

    Today's picks:

    Minnesota (M. Shoemaker) vs. Seattle (Flexen) - Under 8.5 -110 (up to -115 ok)

    Colorado (Marquez) +114 at San Francisco (DeSclafani)
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  12. #12
    0-2 on Sunday. Ouch!

    Today:

    Miami (P. Lopez) +149 at Atlanta (Fried)
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  13. #13
    Won the Miami for a nice +149 payoff

    Today:

    Phladelphia (Wheeler) -113 at NY Mets (D. Peterson)
    Cincinnati (Mahle) -107 at San Francisco (Cueto)
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  14. #14
    Well, that didn't go well. I killed it again in NBA (4-1), but lost both of these in pretty clear fashion.
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  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Well, that didn't go well. I killed it again in NBA (4-1), but lost both of these in pretty clear fashion.
    Phillies O is terrible so far.
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  16. #16
    Okay, let's try to win in MLB here.

    The Red Sox have won 9 in a row. Too bad Sanlmar isn't here anymore to taunt about this. Today it ends. No 10 game streak for you! In fact, I'm so certain that I'm laying the 1.5.

    Minnesota (Pineda) +140 -1.5 vs. Boston (G. Richards)


    Also, Rich Hill is 41 and has looked pretty bad both in the spring and in the regular season. The Rangers suck, but they're showing a little life lately.

    Texas (Lyles) +166 at Tampa Bay (Hill)
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  17. #17
    1-1, both were close. Texas won in extras, and Minnesota blew a 3-0 8th inning lead. Still won 0.66 units thanks to the dog Texas bet.

    Two I like so far today:

    Arizona +171 (Widener) at Washignton (Scherzer)
    Miami +119 (Castano) vs. San Francisco (DeSclafani)

    Two excellent teams in Miami and Arizona on our radar!
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  18. #18
    Two close ones.... both tied in the 8th, both were decided by home runs. Miami won, Arizona lost.

    Can't find anything I like... at least so far.
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  19. #19
    Okay, so I only see one MLB game I like so far.

    Joe Musgrove has been getting all the press this year, with his no-hitter and 0.47 ERA.

    But what about Brandon Woodruff? Did you know he had a no-hitter through 6 on April 7? Did you know he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2020? He has.

    The Brewers are banged up, playing without Yelich, Cain, and Wong, but I like the price here, in what should be a pitchers' duel, and to be honest I believe Woodruff will perform better.

    Milwaukee (Woodruff) +147 at San Diego (Musgrove)

    WARNING: The line has been moving the other way, so the books don't seem to agree with me. Bet at your own risk.
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  20. #20
    Okay I was vacillating on this one but I decided to fire:

    St. Louis -108 (Flaherty) at Washington (J. Ross)
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