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Thread: Dan Druff's 2021 MLB Picks

  1. #41
    After 9 innings the score was 3-3. Thanks to the dumb extras rule, the total of 9 lost -- easily!

    Big time screw job.

    We move on.
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  2. #42
    Two starting at 4:10 PT:

    Arizona (Plesac) +115 at Mets (D. Peterson)
    Cleveland (Plesac) -137 vs. Cincinnati (Miley)
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  3. #43
    Ouch. Lost both of those on Friday at the end of the game. Both were tied, Cincy won in the 9th, and Mets won in the 10th.

    Today:

    Texas (Gibson) at San Francisco (Wood) - Over 7 -125

    You have a nice 7mph breeze blowing out, to help you out tonight.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #44
    Lost on Monday.

    Today:

    Phiadelphia (Nola) at Toronto (Kay) - Over 10 -105
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  5. #45
    Lost on Saturday.

    Two today:

    Cleveland (Plesac) +102 at Angels (Heaney)
    Texas (Foltynecwiczczcziecz) +135 vs. Yankees (Taillon)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #46
    Split 'em. Had a 3-0 and 5-0 lead in those games, but the 3-0 lost, and the 5-0 barely won after it went 5-5. Josh Naylor saved me.

    Today:

    I think the wheels are going to fall off for Ohtani the Pitcher soon, especially with his 40/20 K/BB situation right now. And yeah, having no Trout doesn't help matters.

    Cleveland (Civale) +116 at Angels (Ohtani)

    I also have these two for you:

    Boston (G. Richards) +106 at Toronto (Stripling)
    Seattle (Gilbert) vs. Detroit - Under 8 -120

    There's a reason the Dodgers ejected Stripling.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #47
    2-01 on Wed, tying the Seattle under

    Today:

    Mets (Stroman) -105 at Miami (Holloway)
    Angels -110 (Quintana) vs. Oakland (Kaprielian)
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  8. #48
    Split those two on the 21st, winning the Mets.

    Today, my first Run+Hit+Error bet. These can be found on Betonline, and some other places I assume.

    Milwaukee (Burnes) vs. San Diego (Musgrove) - under 22.5 R+H+E -125

    Also a straight bet
    Milwaukee -124
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  9. #49
    Split 'em, winning the RHE bet, losing the side.

    Okay, so let's look at a good RHE one for tonight. Dodgers/Astros

    I'll use the H9 (hits per 9 inning) stat in place of BAA, which are very similar.

    Bauer has a sparkling 4.4 H9
    Luis Garcia of Houston has a 6.5 H9, and a good H9 rate in his time in the minors over the past few years.

    The line is 25 for RHE.

    Astros do lead MLB with a .269 team BA, which is very high for 2021. Dodgers are above average with .247.

    However, Bauer should neutralize that somewhat, and I think 25 is too high.

    Unfortunately, I stupidly typed this up before betting it, and it moved from -130 to -145 in the past few minutes on Betonline, so I guess great minds think alike. But if you can find it at 130 or better on another site, go for it. I won't be betting it unless I find that line though. Bovada has it at -120, so grab that while you can, if you have limits there (I'm reduced to almost nothing).

    Dodgers (Bauer) at Houston (L. Garcia) - Under 25 R+H+E -120
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  10. #50
    Here's a "1st 5" moneyline for you.

    Pittsburgh (Crowe) +105 vs. Cubs (T. Williams) - FIRST 5 INNINGS

    In his last 4 starts, Trevor Williiams hasn't made it through 5 innings. In his last 8 starts, he never pitched into the 6th. His ERA is almost 6.00, his WHIP is 1.779. He had one good year (2018), and since then has been garbage.

    This is a great "first 5" game to bet.
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  11. #51
    Won the RHE bet, lost the Pittsburgh moneyline.

    Another RHE.

    Detroit (Boyd) vs. Cleveland (Bieber) - Under 22 R+H+E -105

    Game lined at 6.5 runs at some books!

    Boyd has a nice 7.5 H9 so far, and Bieber is at 8.2, which should be trending lower.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #52
    Here's an MLB over for you. Game 2 of a doubleheader.

    Colorado (Senzatela) at Mets (Lucchesi) - OVER 5.5 -130 GAME 2 DH (7 innings)
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  13. #53
    Won both above, here's one more:

    Fortunately I have a few minutes to get this off.

    St. Louis (C. Martinez) -111 at Arizona (Duplantier)

    Big fan of Carlos Martinez, btw. He's actually been better this year than it appears from his ERA. He has never gone less than 5 innings this year. He just needs to keep the walks down.

    I'm 3-0 in RHE picks so far, btw.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #54
    3-0 yesterday.

    Today:

    Yankees (Cole) at Detroit (Mize) - Under 23 R+H+E -115
    Dodgers (Buehler) vs. San Francisco (DeSclafani) - Under 24.5 R+H+E -120

    Mize 6.68 H9, Cole 6.17 H9 (and crushing it, except for one bad start versus Texas recently).

    The Dodgers game is a bit more complicated. Sure, Buehler has a 6.82 H9, and has generally looked good lately. Sure, DeSclafani has been one of the biggest pleasant surprises this year, and sports a 7.23 H9. However, in their last meeting, the Dodgers shellacked DeSclafani for 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings, including 9 hits. Ouch!

    However, I still like the Dodgers RHE under because the lightning already struck once against DeSclafani, who otherwise had a great season going. If anyone is going to be motivated to put in the work to suppress the Dodger bats this time around, it's him. That Dodgers have been the one giant pimple on his otherwise breakout 2021.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #55
    Also:

    Kansas City (Bubic) +135 at Minnesota (Dobnak) - FIRST FIVE INNINGS

    Not sure which Randy Dobnak is going to show up -- the horrendous reliver from April, or the guy who dominated the Indians last week for 6 shutout innings?

    After almost 18 straight shutout innings spanning 4 games, Kris Bubic finally let his nerves get to him in his last start, giving up 4 hits in the first, before settling down. Overall it wasn't a terrible start, just a bad first inning. I'll forgive.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #56
    Lucky win with KC in the 5th, but unlucky games with the RHE stuff, one screwed in extras (tie instead of a win, due to a bad final out call), and one screwed by a 3-run comeback in the 9th. 1-1-1 overall.

    Today:

    Not seeing much I like RHE wise, except the NYM/ATL game, but between it being -130 for under 23 and Taijuan Walker coming off an injury (and a delay of a day due to rain), I don't trust it. Mets are barely hitting though, given all the injuries, so it's tempting.

    But I'll just go with this:

    Washington (Lester) vs. Milwaukee (Brett Anderson) - OVER 6.5 +102 (GAME 2 - 7 INNINGS)
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  17. #57
    Winner yesterday.

    Two good RHE bets today:

    Washington (Scherzer) vs. Milwaukee (Woodruff) - Under 22 -115 RHE
    Dodgers (Kershaw) vs. San Francisco (Gausman) - Under 24 -120 RHE


    Unfortunately, moments after I bet these, BOL moved the lines to -135 and -140, respectively.

    But if they return, or if you can bet them elsewhere, do it.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #58
    Went 1-0-1 on Sunday, got screwed by Pujols in the 9th to tie the Dodgers RHE bet.

    I only have one play today:

    Philadelphia (Nola) at Cincinnati (Gray) - Over 7.5 -115
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  19. #59
    Easily won that over on Tuesday, with 20 runs!

    Kansas City (Keller) -131 vs. Minnesota (Shoemaker)
    KC/Min Under 9.5 -110


    Starting at 5:10 PT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #60
    Last minute:

    Detroit (Turnbull) +139 at White Sox (Keuchel)
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