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Thread: The Sisyphean Gambler

  1. #1
    I came across this older article written by a respected gaming author and it contains a description (with commentary) of a gambler who is eerily just like of this forum's contributors:

    FWIW


    http://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/...-gambler-60080

  2. #2
    Of course what Scoblete is selling is the belief in dice control. He actually uses the term "dice control" versus "dice influencing" which is more realistic. The entire "dice influencing" camp is well aware that craps is a negative expectation game and the only way to beat it is to influence the dice.

    But we need more info from you Vegas Vic. Please make your point?

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Of course what Scoblete is selling is the belief in dice control. He actually uses the term "dice control" versus "dice influencing" which is more realistic. The entire "dice influencing" camp is well aware that craps is a negative expectation game and the only way to beat it is to influence the dice.

    But we need more info from you Vegas Vic. Please make your point?
    This has nothing to do with "dice control" or craps in particular, but the general topic of gamblers who have a system that is contrary to the mathematics of the gambling.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Vegas Vic View Post
    This has nothing to do with "dice control" or craps in particular, but the general topic of gamblers who have a system that is contrary to the mathematics of the gambling.
    Then I find it ironic that Scoblete would take this position. He has even written that craps is a negative expectation game and in all of the books and articles including Sharpshooter's famous book on dice setting and dice influencing it is stated that there is no way to beat the game of craps by math or by any betting system and only DI or DC can beat the game.

    I think if we had him here and I asked him what the point was in his article he would say that if there were a way to control the big rock, our mythical hero would beat the mythical Gods.

    Of course, this raises the issue about dice influencing and dice control being mythical as well.

  5. #5
    From the article: "These gamblers think they can change the nature of the gambling universe with their betting systems. Of course, they can't."

    Pretty much says it all.

  6. #6
    Arc hit the key line: dice influencing and dice control is not a gambling system. So as I suspected, this article by Scoblete is another attempt to sell the benefits of DI/DC.

    Throughout Sharpshooter's book, the theme is that only dice influencing can beat the game of craps. No betting system and no betting scheme can beat the house. The only thing missing from Scoblete's article is the pitch line which would have been something like this: "... and now you know why you need to find out what The Captain did and why our craps classes can help you beat the house with Dice Control as taught by ...."

    I have to agree -- only dice influencing can beat the casinos at craps, but it's a rare skill. And even if you do practice hard and master the technique on your home table, every casino table you play on will have a different bounce which will cancel out all of the hours of practice you put in at home.

    The reality of all of these classes about how to set and throw the dice mean little because the perfect throw loses all of its control and influence as soon as the dice touch the table.

  7. #7
    Alan, you really should read the article. It has nothing to do with craps.

  8. #8
    Arc, I read the article. I also know what Scoblete is selling: Golden Touch Craps. Everything I read from him I put into context that he is trying to sell Golden Touch Craps. The very first words of the article are: "Unless a casino player is a Golden Touch controlled shooter at craps ... casino players enter the casino knowing the house has the edge...."

    The article is all about this: be a Golden Touch Craps subscriber or you are doomed to lose. And this is somewhat true. Unless you can influence the dice you cannot beat the game.
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 03-28-2012 at 07:03 PM.

  9. #9
    Alan, that's the only time it is mentioned. And, it also mentions card counters and advantage slot players in the same sentence. The article is about people who play without an advantage while using wishful thinking to claim they do have an advantage. You know, exactly like Singer.

  10. #10
    Alan, you know arci won't get involved in ANYTHING on gaming forums if his Achilles heel can't be mentioned While he tried and tried and tried to get you to tie my name into the article so he didn't have to, he as usual just couldn't help himself in the end. What I'd have wanted to see is how many tums he had to take throughout the process. I'm sure that household must be LOADED with them!!

    The point of this article can only be properly ascertained by someone who has read Scoblete thru the years and who knows what he always tries to sell. Alan has done that. I've done that. Others have done that, but not arci. What he has always immersed himself into has been only reading me, then making up statistical stories about himself that mirror textbooks, then read that with a virtual smile on his face....that is, until he lifts up his head, gets smacked with a dose of reality, and has to look around at the true mess it's made him and the unnecessarily challenging life he's created for himself as well as others.

    But I'm surprised arci doesn't read with understanding, given the vast amount of down time his declining years have presented him with. I don't go to the machines with any type of mythical mathematical advantage--that's something I did as an advantage player until it mercifully ended in late 1996. I go in EXPECTING to win every time, knowing that within any session that big hit will almost always come--and that so-called "big hit" is hardly what most players will actually call a big hit! The advantage I play with is knowing that the majority of each session will be laced with misery, but nearly always & eventually, luck will show, and how because I'm always doing exactly the opposite as the casinos want and expect me to do in every aspect of my visit, this unequivocal shift in polarity where a player IS NOT compelled to sit at machines to accumulate points or (ha ha!) get in a certain # of hands out of addiction to playing, nearly every visit is a profitable one to at least my minimum requirements.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 03-29-2012 at 08:10 AM.

  11. #11
    Thanks Rob. I'm glad I'm not alone in understanding Scoblete's true motives in the article.

    Arc: Scoblete is a salesman, and a good one. Of course he mentioned card counting and advantage slot play. Yes, he needs the credibility that card counting has but card counting has nothing to do with "golden touch craps." And "advantage slot play"?? Are you kidding?? Do you know what advantage slot play is??

    I remember covering the shutdown of Michael Milken's empire, and the closing of his offices in Beverly Hills. I was interviewing some of his "traders" as they came out of the building with their things packed and I asked them, "what will you do now?" And all of them -- all of these stock market whizzes -- told me the same thing, which went something like this:

    "I'm a salesman. I can sell anything. I'll get another sales job."

    What you are reading is the work of a darn good salesman who wants you to buy into the systems that GTC is selling as well as the books on "advantage play slots" that he is selling. When selling, a good salesman always throws in a few facts to disguise to assuage the sales pitch.

    Hell, Dancer throws in "facts" to push along his sales pitch too. And when you fail using what he sells he comes back and says it's because you didn't follow 100% of what he said to do.

    If it weren't gambling the Federal Trade Commission would probably shut them all down. LOL

  12. #12
    Alan, I'm not claiming he doesn't pitch GTC at times. All I'm telling you is this article is not pushing it.

    Yes, I know all about advantage slots. In fact, I believe he is including advantage VP in his statement as well.

    In this article is is stating that betting systems don't provide an advantage. Now, who around here pushes a betting system? Yup, Mr. dufus himself. That's the bottom line. Anything else you read into it is your own imagination at work.

  13. #13
    Well, Arc, if you don't think that Scoblete is pushing GTC than you are being naive. GTC is not a betting system... but it is the belief that you can learn a skill to influence and control dice.

    For the record I know some people do have the skill to influence dice -- some to a small degree and some to a great degree. I am not sure that it can be learned, but it might be with practice. I also believe that even if you do master the skill of a "perfect throw" then the unique bounce of each and every table can cancel out whatever skill you have in your throw.

    So Arc, all Scoblete is trying to reinforce is that if you have a chance in a casino it is with one of the "skills" of gambling:

    In blackjack, it's card counting. I don't disagree, do you?
    In craps, it's precision throwing. I don't disagree, but I know it's not that simple to learn, master, or accomplish. Do you agree?

    I don't know anything about advantage play with slots but if you know what it is and believe in it, please tell.

    I agree that there is a skill element in video poker, but skill alone will not make you a winner.

    And I also believe that some of Rob's strategies can contribute to winning.

    Your turn, Arc.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Alan, I'm not claiming he doesn't pitch GTC at times. All I'm telling you is this article is not pushing it.
    He is pushing it because he is telling you that you cannot win without it. Just as he is saying you cannot win at blackjack without card counting. Just as he is saying you cannot win at slots without advantage slot play... whatever that is??

    And yes, I will agree that advantage VP will help you win at video poker. I only wish it were that easy, however.

  15. #15
    Alan, I'll explain "advantage slot play" since our resident know-it-all seems to be too busy reading gauges, applying salves, or doing the dishes to expand on his assertion.

    Advantage slots are no different than advantage video poker when you sift thru all the BS. You see those struggling on vp go after the slots when they calculate how the progressive jackpots are in that same mythical "positive territory" as the vp jackpots supposedly are--only the people who play them are saddled with the same old curse: What happens if I'm not lucky enough to hit the big winner? There are also "casino rats"....sort of like that wannabee professional storyteller who likely idolizes Scotty from Scotty's Castle lore in Death Valley....who will tell themselves that if they hang around certain regular jackpot slots observing long enough, they can figure out when they're about to hit.

    Obviously, it's just more advantage play nonsense, since no one wins unless they have good luck when they play any machine. All this baloney about theoretical probabilities etc. means nothing unless the machine cooperated when YOU are sitting there.

    Now we're off to SF's Chinatown for the morning walking tour, then up to Mendicino County and the Parducci Winery for the day. Gee, I sure wish I had more of that 24/7 "down time" in my life.....

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    He is pushing it because he is telling you that you cannot win without it. Just as he is saying you cannot win at blackjack without card counting. Just as he is saying you cannot win at slots without advantage slot play... whatever that is??

    And yes, I will agree that advantage VP will help you win at video poker. I only wish it were that easy, however.
    I believe you are correctly stating his opinion which applies to long term play. However, once again, that is not the point of this article. In this article he simply stating that you can't expect to win unless you have an advantage. Betting systems do not provide an advantage. It really is quite simple.

    Now, he clearly believes dice influencing is possible. I don't know if it is or not, and I don't really care. However, I do know that betting systems don't do squat to change the odds. That is all this article is telling you.

  17. #17
    In the Sisyphus story, gravity substitutes for "the math." I think that's the gist of the article.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    In the Sisyphus story, gravity substitutes for "the math." I think that's the gist of the article.
    That is an excellent interpretation. Back in high school, there were other analogies: a good politician trying to get something done in a world of corruption; an entrepreneur unable to break the grip of the oligopoly; and so forth.

    The ancient myths were a way to teach lessons to the people of that day. Later, there were new interpretations and applications. They didn't have casino gambling back then, but they did cast lots and I think they rolled bones.

    edit: I forgot: betting on the gladiators was a big thing. I have in my collection of old casino chips a 2-drachma ticket on Antonius Miraculous in the third. I also have a 2-drachma Trifecta on Armenius, Arcadacius and Antonius, but if I recall it was Antonius who lost by a nose, and then an arm.
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 03-31-2012 at 03:43 PM.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I agree that there is a skill element in video poker, but skill alone will not make you a winner.
    what about on fpdw, will skill alone MOST LIKELY make you a winner over time?

  20. #20
    In any video poker game, YOUR skill has no control over the Random Number Generator. No matter how smart you are, if the RNG doesn't give you the cards you need you can't win. There is no telekinetic powers available in the library of video poker skills. You are still gambling with the machine. The skill element will help you, but it's still a game that involves a lot of "luck" or whatever fancy name you want to attach to "luck."

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