'Fate," Alan, is a better term here since we're referencing Greek myths.
'Fate," Alan, is a better term here since we're referencing Greek myths.
Of course you cannot control what cards you are dealt. Is this really all you were saying when you wrote, "I agree that there is a skill element in video poker, but skill alone will not make you a winner?"Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Yes. That sums it up.Originally Posted by bigfoot66
In my book I identified vp as being a game of 95% skill and 5% luck. This really rattled the gurus & other math people like arci, because to them the game has to be according to their 100% skill interpretation or they would find themselves being entwined in the biggest conflict of their lives every time they sit at the machines....and NOTHING will stop them from that ultimate compulsion of theirs.
If you understand the basics of poker you have as much chance as anyone at a vp machine. We've seen arci's pride take yet another hit in this area here, as he likes to pretend luck doesn't exist, and it's all about mathematical distribution or some other anal nonsense. And that's exactly why he's always so frustrated with me everywhere. I've won a lot and very consistently so, by accepting and advantageously utilizing the infrequent number of times that good luck shows up in any given session. It IS all about luck folks--that's why these are GAMBLING MACHINES! Advantage players, bless their hearts, would prefer to pretend they know how to conquer another mathematical puzzle presented in this world. Trouble is, in their denial, they turn into pathological liars on the Internet, ruin other people's lives, and will exit this world someday in utter conflict, misery, and disbelief that they were not smarter than everybody else.
Right & fitting!
Rob, I think you overstated the amount of skill in a video poker game. I think its about 70% skill and 30% luck in the end. I've seen too many bad players, making the wrong holds, walk away big winners. While "good players" making the "right holds" miss their draws.
The thing is that we cannot control what cards we are dealt. Instead, we can control which games we play, when we play them, and the strategy we use to play the game. We should play the best strategy on the most favorable machines during the most generous promotional periods. If we do this, we do all we can to maximize our chances of winning. The cards will fall where they may, but we did all we can to put ourselves in a position to win.
Once again I see a plethora of ignorance. It's clear to anyone with any math understanding at all that some people would rather believe in luck than accept well proven mathematical processes.
What's really sad is that people proudly declare their ignorance. Amazing.
Alan, I know it's arguable at 90%, 70%, or just about any percent above 60. But the most intelligent among us who also happen to not be in denial of the obvious facts just because those facts don't neurotically jive with their requirements that there is no such thing as luck, can all agree that skill is but a small part in playing video poker successfully.
arci, as you sit there alone and adrift, moaning over just about everything in your real life as well as in the virtual world you need on the Internet, at your age you ought to be able to realize that everyone else is younger than you and more in touch with the truth. As such, have you not yet had enough of your lunch handed to you over a simple, silly game? One might think you do have more pressing problems to attend to.
Arc does your "math" control what cards the RNG spits out? That is the issue here.
The math does not "control" any particular hand. What it tells you is the probable distribution of various hands. Over time that distribution will lead to predictable results. There is nothing more one can do. If you want to claim luck is the variability within that distribution then fine. The problem is there is no way to control it, so there is no approach you can employ to increase your luck. It's just as likely you will experience that "luck" after hitting other big wins as it is you will experience that "luck" on another trip.
That is why the dufus just lies and lies. Asserting one falsehood after another is all he can muster. You know he is sick that I win every year. He even tries to claim I don't win to bolster his fantasy world. Shows the depths he will go to in denying reality.
Arc, this is where we have our difference of opinion. You wrote:
"The math does not "control" any particular hand. What it tells you is the probable distribution of various hands. Over time that distribution will lead to predictable results."
Here's where I differ with you:
I think the math gives you the possible results, not the probable results. I think you could have four to the royal one million times and never get the royal card. What will you say? That it's possible or probable you will get it 1/47 times?
You say that over time there will be predictable results. I say nothing is predictable when you are dealing with a RANDOM number generator. Because with a RNG everything is random. You have no control over random.
I see this same kind of thinking at the craps table. Players bet the "odds" bets because this bet is supposed to have no house advantage, and no player advantage. In other words, over time it's a "no lose" bet. (It's also a "no win" bet but craps players seem to overlook this.) Yet, at the end of the day -- players still lose and the house still wins. Why? Because it is the flat bet that always has the house advantage. -- and the math guys go down in flames.
Alan, all I can tell you is the world's best mathematicians disagree with you. Don't let that stop you, though. I'm sure you're smarter than all of them.
Once again it's pretty obvious that Alan has no idea what random means, has no ideas about statistical laws, and has no clue how these apply to the real world.
Alan, it's possible all the atoms in your body will simultaneously disappear into virtual space. Are you going to worry about it. It's also possible you will eaten by a man eating tiger. Have you taken precautions? It's possible you could win the next 100 consecutive power ball lotteries. Have you invested? Just because something is "possible" should not get confused with reality.
"Because it is the flat bet that always has the house advantage. -- and the math guys go down in flames."
Do you understand just how wrong your above statement is?
Arc is the problem over the definition of probability vs possibility vs guaranteed?
All of your math gives us possibilities for things happening, and not even the probability of something happening. Yes, the stars have to align for the probablilities to come.
No where is there any guarantee. Your math can tell you that you will draw a royal 1/47 times when holding four to the royal and you might call that a probability of it happening, and to the rest of the word it is only a possibility and there is no guarantee it will ever happen.
I look at it this way: would a banker extend to you a loan so you could play video poker for a living? I don't think so. The casino might, and a loan shark might, but no bank will.
And I know enough about random to know this: random is random, and because the RNG is random it may NEVER give you the cards that you say are probable. Chew on that for a while.
Uh-oh! When you said "the math guys will go down in flames" it's a sure bet arci ignored the missus and dropped the syringe, cleared the fog from his reading glasses, gulped a mouthful of Maalox, and called his useless buddies over on videopoker.com for some encouragement....because you just don't say such blasphemy without him having some sort of recourse to feel better after the shock wears off!
Now THERE's an advantage play for ya! Great job!
I wish I went to high school with this guy--I'd have been on detention night after night!
Last edited by Rob.Singer; 04-03-2012 at 03:47 PM.
Let's talk about the "no house advantage odds bet in craps" for a moment. The math guys love to say there is "no house advantage" while forgetting that "there is no player advantage." What the math guys also fail to recognize is that even though the bet has "no house advantage" the house is still more likely to win this bet each and every time.
I've been fighting the math guys on this for years, and finally one of them actually conceded that yes -- the house is more likely to win the bet. It's just that the math guys focus on "the math" without the application of what happens to the bet once it is made.
It's the same in video poker. The "math" says that over the long term (and that's a term they use) the game will return XXX% but they overlook the actual play of the game which might never return what they "expect" it to return.
Like in dice: the point of 4 is supposed to hit one out of three times. But you might never see the point of 4 hit. So the "no house advantage" on the odds for the point of 4 might never be paid.
It's time to separate theory from actual play. Why is it that we "non math guys" can do that -- but the math guys can't?
Four weeks ago one of my buddies went to the Riviera to play their 1,000-times odds craps game: $5 on the pass line, and come, $5,000 odds. Before the trip he told me his "cost" of each bet was pennies. After the trip he told me he lost something like $20-grand when he decided to quit early.
All VP discussions should begin and end with this.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If ignorance were bliss ...
alan, why do you always claim bad things will happen? Are you a life long pessimist? You need to understand that you can also do better than the odds state. Over one year my wife hit 4RF 5 out of 67 tries. In fact, it's pretty close to even that you will do better than the odds rather than worse. That's why it evens out over time. You do better than the odds for a period of time and do worse for another period of time. It's true there are no guarantees. There's only smart money and stupid money.
I'm amazed you ever leave your house. Just think of all the bad things that COULD happen.
This post of yours is out of your normal "character." For once you are saying there are no guarantees. In the past you have always seemed to say the math is guaranteed. So we are now in agreement.Originally Posted by arcimede$
So getting back to the math having no guarantees: every gambler should realize and understand that you can always be on the short end of the math. And every gambler should understand that the math does not reflect what actually can happen to them.
There is also a great misunderstanding and misapplication of math terms when it comes to gambling. For example, "expected return" does not mean guaranteed return, does it?
The misapplication I've been most vocal about is in craps where the math term of "no house advantage on the odds" is mis-interpreted by craps players to think that it gives them the best chance of winning -- and it does not. For example, there is no house advantage on the odds on the point of 4, but the house always has a 2-1 chance of winning that bet, and the gambler is always at a 2 to 1 disadvantage even if there is no house advantage on the odds. Confusing, isnt it?
And getting back to video poker-- that you might have a 1/47 chance of drawing a royal means nothing. You might get that 1/47 draw 40 out of the next 47 times or you might go hundreds of draws before it hits. You know that and I'm not telling you anything new.
I'm not a pessimist but I am a realist. I only put a limited amount of faith into what the math says MIGHT happen. I will never play 8/5 Bonus Poker saying to myself I have a 99.17% of getting back each dollar I bet. And when I bet full odds on the point of 4 I never say to myself that this is the best bet because I know I am still a 2-to-1 underdog but betting that same money on the place 6 or place 8 actually gives me a better chance of winning money than the odds on the 4 have.
Alan, I've always said there are no guarantees. There's no guarantee the Sun will rise tomorrow. Once again you confuse probabilities of normal events with those related to gambling. Just because something is a "probability" does not mean there's little chance it will occur. All the math I've provided has probabilities associated with it. If you have a 99% chance of winning do you really want to focus on the 1% chance of losing? That's what you are doing. You are claiming that because something is not certain that the stars could align just right and it won't happen, therefore you need to do something different.
Now that you know the Sun may not rise tomorrow morning what are you going to do today that is different? The same applies to VP. If you approach the game correctly you can achieve a very high probability that you will win. Hence, things like win goals (or should that be win limits) are unnecessary.
BTW, seen any man eating tigers recently?
Well, Arc, if drawing a card were a 99% probability things would be different. But in video poker there is no 99% probability of drawing any card. And this is the reason why I like win goals -- because there is no guarantee that when you do get lucky that you will keep getting lucky. So take the money and run.
Sure, you can keep playing -- only to find the cards (RNG) has turned against you. As they correctly note on Wall Street: Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. And this could well apply to video poker: Those who quit with a profit make money, those who quit when they reach their loss limit will have money for next time, and those who don't know when to quit risk losing it all.
Edited to add: And even if drawing a card were like your mythical 99% chance (as in drawing one card to a royal) you still have get the other four cards in the royal to have that 1/47 royal draw.
Arc: you don't have to be a genius to play video poker well, or even perfectly. If all you had to be was smart many more people would be winners.
Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 04-05-2012 at 09:26 AM.
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