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Thread: Moses Las Vegas Plan

  1. #1
    Talkling about someone on a forum they can not respond, much less starting a thread is in bad taste. But this thread is not done with malice, but rather a warning. Anyone who has been reading Moses "Golden oldie moving to Las Vegas" thread at WoV, knows Moses claims to be in the process of moving to Las Vegas as opportunities in Reno have dried up according to him.

    Today Moses laid out his game plan and it is a disaster. Ripe for failure.

    1) moses is a single deck player, so here in Vegas he intends to focus on double deck. Regular card counters in Vegas refer to the double deck games are "counter traps". They are the games most 'hawked' and watched at most casinos. The games to avoid. I play double deck, but very sparingly. it makes up roughly 20% of my play.

    2) Moses only wants to play $50 and $100 minimum tables. The very tables that are most scrutinized and 'hawked' by casino personnel.

    3) Moses has identified 10 casino that meet his criteria, 9 of which are on the strip. 10 casinos is not a very big rotation, even bigger properties and playing multiple shifts. You will start seeing the same dealers and pit regularly, which means you are missing out on the biggest advantage of Las Vegas: quantity and spreading your play around.

    4) Strip properties, especially at the higher limits are just the type of place a player should avoid to acheive any kind of longevity. Don't we already have a pro player, the so called GOAT, who regularly regales us with his heat related issue of playing exclusively strip properties.

    Moses, you have managed to come up with a list of everything not to do as your game plan. I wish you well, but just want that on record, because I suspect when you don't succeed, you will come back at me. Well you aren't doing what I am doing, so lay nothing on me! Again, best of luck.

  2. #2
    Oh, I forgot.

    5) spreading to 2 hands. from the day I moved to Vegas I have found Vegas to be much more sensative to this than other places...especially at double deck. They are rather blatant about their suspicions, as I have had a number of pit folks start looking through the discard rack immediately as I spread to two hands to see if there were many small cards. I guess a not so subtle warning. Maybe other players experiences differ.

  3. #3
    unbelievable. Ever since Mission's terribly misplaced thread yesterday, every thread created in the Las Vegas Subforum has been Las Vegas related!!!

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    unbelievable. Ever since Mission's terribly misplaced thread yesterday, every thread created in the Las Vegas Subforum has been Las Vegas related!!!
    I dont know that I have ever made a thread on this forum? But, if I do, I will make sure to consult with you first regarding its proper placement.

  5. #5
    Mcap has already made two posts substantially just to complain about my errantly placed thread...which is 2x as many posts in the last several weeks as I have made errantly placed threads.

    EDIT TO BE CLEAR: I'm not including the post he made IN said errantly placed thread. One would think that would have been sufficient to make his point, but I guess not.

  6. #6
    I enjoy how much threads drift on this forum.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Mcap has already made two posts substantially just to complain about my errantly placed thread...which is 2x as many posts in the last several weeks as I have made errantly placed threads.

    EDIT TO BE CLEAR: I'm not including the post he made IN said errantly placed thread. One would think that would have been sufficient to make his point, but I guess not.
    Just another routine walk in the park for Mr mcap. Anybody who doesn't recognise this same tired shtick by now, has been asleep for a VERY LOOOONG time !

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    unbelievable. Ever since Mission's terribly misplaced thread yesterday, every thread created in the Las Vegas Subforum has been Las Vegas related!!!
    I dont know that I have ever made a thread on this forum? But, if I do, I will make sure to consult with you first regarding its proper placement.
    ^^^^^^^^^

  9. #9
    Moses, you ended a little story with the following quote today: "Norm's products are the keys to the gym."

    Lately you have been spreading mis-information that 6 deck games can't be beat (in your opinion). You also don't beleive me or half dozen or so players that have responded in your thread at WoV, that tell you they DO beat 6 deck games. It is your right to beleive whatever you like.

    So my question is have you run a sim? You are a beleiver in Norm's software and simulations. Run a little sim, for a 6 deck game, standard rules, with a modest 1-12 spread maxing out at TC +4 and tell us what the results are?

    Then play around further. Get rid of some of the (worst of) negative counts (wong outs and bathroom breaks) and see how that improves results? Try a 1-16 spread and see how that works.

    At this point I would hope you stop this silly nonsense that 6 deck games can't be beat. Then you can move on to the second part of your equation, which is whether it is worth your time and effort.

  10. #10
    Moses, this cross forum discussion really doesn't make much sense, so this will probably be my last post.

    I would have thought running a sim to see if the 6 deck game was beatable or not, would be your first step not your last. If the sim shows the game not beatable, or even not beatable to your satisfaction, meaning the kind of money you want to make, no further steps need be taken in your consideration. But you do it your way.

    If you remember, several times I suggested you should consider learning how to beat 6 decks, because I figured at some point the single deck game would disappear. Reno is really the last place, other than a couple very small, very low limt towns. Of course I had no idea this kind of covid situation would play a part and speed up that change.

    Now, should you decide to play Vegas at some point, you will need to play and learn to beat 6 deck games. A player can not survive Vegas playing only double deck, at least as a full time income. As previously mentioned, DD are a counter trap at many locations and there just aren't enough.

    Now should you ever decide to play 6 deck, you are going to have to adjust to 2 things that will be very different. One is that you can not make the kind of money you are hoping to make ($200k). As I and several other players that play Vegas have told you, the range is $80-$100k. That is what you can make playing the limits that are tolerated. You can't double it by doubling stakes. The whole thing falls apart because that level is not tolerated. You will get several months at best. And you can't double it by simply playing twice as much. That will result in over-exposure and similarly a short run. It is what it is...accept it or not.

    The second thing that will be very different for you is variance. I have held off on mentioning this because this will be very difficult for you. While your play and mine have been very different, I have learned some things from you about single deck play that I didn't know or didn't fully understand. Like single deck play is the one remaining situation where what count you play can make a different. A higher or specialty count can lower variance and that seems to be something you have specialized in. It doesn't work that way with 6 decks. What count you play matters much less and speciality counts add almost nothing. It is a simple more high cards = good, more low cards = bad. And with that comes much more variance and swings than you are used to. You would have to learn to deal and accept that because you cannot change it, although I expect you will try.

    Sincerely good luck to you whatever you decide.

  11. #11
    Fuck is this?

    What do we share, KewlJ? We've got 2nd period Spanish and 7th period Biology together, right?

    Okay, Moses and I both have lunch fifth period, so I can get your note to him in our Spanish class, he has plenty of time to respond at lunch and then I can take his response to you in Biology.

    Tomorrow we will rinse and repeat.

    Shit. Tomorrow is not a school day. Are you two going to meet up at the park? Do you guys think we can make it after eleven? My favorite cartoon comes on at ten.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Fuck is this?

    What do we share, KewlJ? We've got 2nd period Spanish and 7th period Biology together, right?

    Okay, Moses and I both have lunch fifth period, so I can get your note to him in our Spanish class, he has plenty of time to respond at lunch and then I can take his response to you in Biology.

    Tomorrow we will rinse and repeat.

    Shit. Tomorrow is not a school day. Are you two going to meet up at the park? Do you guys think we can make it after eleven? My favorite cartoon comes on at ten.
    Look goofball <- There has vnever been any benefit to me trying to offer some thoughts that help newer players, or in this case an experienced player, who may be changing his situation, but I like to do so in honor of those that helped me along the way. In this case, Moses can't particpate here and I can't at WoV so it is what it is. get over it!

  13. #13
    If only those were other forums in the world . . .

    I do find this mildly entertaining though.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    so I can get your note to him in our Spanish class,
    So here smart ass, pass him this note.

    I most definitely never said not to play $50 minimum tables. I play $50 minimum tables if they are on the main floor. I even play $100 tables on a busy Saturday night or holiday weekend/big event, if they are on the main floor and I can play in the shadow of a bigger bettor. I may have said something along the lines of avoiding high limit areas where the ratio of pit folks to tables is 3-1 and games are hawked.

    I also never said don't play the strip. I currently have several strip locations in my primary rotation. I prefer not to play the strip because it is crowded with parking issues, that bog down my day, but I play the strip if there is a good opportunity. I probably have said something like people need to get off the strip and visit some of the local places. Too many people think Las vegas is only the strip (and downtown). I also may or may not have said Zenking shouldn't play the strip. He seems very unhappy and uncomfortable playing the strip, and then rushes back to try to prove something....what I have no idea.

    So you can pass that note along at recess (unless you are busy airing it out ) becasue I don't like all this "a successful 10 year player said not to do this or that", when they are things I do myself. And by the way, anything I say is a suggestion based on my experiences. I never am telling anyone what they should do. Everyone needs to decide these things for themselves.

  15. #15
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    KJ, I have a question about your BJ play.

    As part of avoiding heat, how often do you deliberately make the "wrong play" when the count is in your favor?

    Follow up: If / when you make the "wrong play," do you bet your basic amount or a higher amount, e.g. the amount you'd bet were the count in your favor and you wanted to exploit it?

    Seems to me (a non-BJ player) that making the "wrong play" during a favorable count would likely cause a hawker to conclude you're not a threat, but hey, what the hell do I know?
    What, Me Worry?

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Fuck is this?

    What do we share, KewlJ? We've got 2nd period Spanish and 7th period Biology together, right?

    Okay, Moses and I both have lunch fifth period, so I can get your note to him in our Spanish class, he has plenty of time to respond at lunch and then I can take his response to you in Biology.

    Tomorrow we will rinse and repeat.

    Shit. Tomorrow is not a school day. Are you two going to meet up at the park? Do you guys think we can make it after eleven? My favorite cartoon comes on at ten.
    Look goofball <- There has vnever been any benefit to me trying to offer some thoughts that help newer players, or in this case an experienced player, who may be changing his situation, but I like to do so in honor of those that helped me along the way. In this case, Moses can't particpate here and I can't at WoV so it is what it is. get over it!
    WRONG Druff allowed Moses back a few months ago and HE refused to come back for some apparent reason. His issue for not wanting to be reinstated, he had the green light. Todd would allow most people back, unless they were complete fuckups/lost causes.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    KJ, I have a question about your BJ play.

    As part of avoiding heat, how often do you deliberately make the "wrong play" when the count is in your favor?

    Follow up: If / when you make the "wrong play," do you bet your basic amount or a higher amount, e.g. the amount you'd bet were the count in your favor and you wanted to exploit it?

    Seems to me (a non-BJ player) that making the "wrong play" during a favorable count would likely cause a hawker to conclude you're not a threat, but hey, what the hell do I know?
    MisterV, what you are suggesting are know as cover plays, the wrong play for cover. In general, because card counters play to such a slim advantage, you want to keep cover plays to a minimum and only when your minimum or small wagers is out. So to that, I play something known as card counters basic strategy. CCBS has you play certain hands the wrong way at minimum bet but when you play them that same way later at a higher count you are playing the correct or optimal way.

    For example 16 vs 10. Basic starategy says to hit. But the at anything above a zero count the proper play is to stand. So CCBS says to stand always, that way when the count is zero or negative and your minimum bet is out, you are playing slightly incorrect at a minimal cost, but all other times when larger bets are out you are playing optimally, and you never have to change the way you play the hand, which is a tell of a card counter.

    Some of the other CCBS plays are:
    always stand on 12 vs 3, when normal basic strategy says to hit, and stand at a true count of 2 or higher.
    always double 11 vs A, when normal basic strategy is just hit and double at higher count.
    always double 9 vs 2 when normal basic strategy is hit and double at TC +2 or higher.
    always double 8 vs 6 when normal basic strategy is hit and double at TC +2 or higher.
    always double A8 vs 5 or 6, when normal basic straty is stand and double at TC +2 or higher.
    always double 9 vs 2 when normal basic strategy is hit and double TC +2 or more.

    And insurance is on the CCBS list, with CCBS saying to always insure, when the normal basic strategy is not to insure and insure at TC +3 or more. This one is a little more costly than the others, so I have fudged a little on it, insuring some hands at counts of 0, 1, 2 and all hands at counts of 3 or more. We will call that the KJ variation of CCBS, LOL

    There are a few others involving soft doubles and splits, that are less important because they occur pretty infrequently. But the theory is you are always playing these hands the same way avoiding the tell of index play and only playing them incorrectly when you minimum or smaller wagers are out making the cost very minimum.

    Some of this is probably overkill because at least half pit folks don't even know regular basic strategy, so they don't know when you are playing wrong or right anyway and of those that do know regular basic strategy the two big tells are 16 vs 10 and surrender. These are the hands it is easy to spot when a player plays them differently some times than other times because they occur so frequently. 16 vs 10 is the single most frequent hand I believe.

  18. #18
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    Thanks for the indepth explanation, KJ.
    What, Me Worry?

  19. #19
    KJ, I can see why someone would read your OP point #2 as stay away from $50 tables and your point #4 as stay away from the strip.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by unJon View Post
    KJ, I can see why someone would read your OP point #2 as stay away from $50 tables and your point #4 as stay away from the strip.
    Fair enough, unJon. Basically I just try to avoid the games that are closely monitored. That would be the high limit room. The same $50 minimum game in the HLR and on the floor have different levels that they are monitored, just by the number of pit folks. Now by the same token, a $50 min on the floor, if it is the only $50 min game and everything else is $25 and less, would be something I would avoid. Some of this is just common sense.

    Since you are reading and participating in both threads, one of the things I find most odd is Moses's insistance that he only wants to play $50 minimum games. See I would prefer $25 minimum even if I were going to use say a $50-$400 spread. That way you have the option to spread both ways. Meaning say the count goes negative towards the end of a shoe, to the point that normally would be an exit trigger, you have the option of dropping down and playing $25 for those last few hands just to get to the shuffle and a new shoe, with less cost. And while this technically increases your total spread, when you are employing spread both ways technique, someone really has to see two different shoes, one with the negative count and the other with a positive count up to max bets to see that full spread. That rarely occurs in the same shoe.

    It is just an extra option, and if you never use it and only show $50-$400, there is no difference showing that at a $50 table than a $25 dollar table. So deciding to only play $50 minimums as moses seems to be doing, is just limiting your opportunities, and that is why moses is incorrectly concluding there are only a handfull of games available. If he is willing to play $25 minimum, even employing a personal minimum of $50, you have so many more options, basically every casino.

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