I mentioned the old Bally's college football ATS (against the spread) from roughly 20 years ago in another thread. Bally's ran it two years, I think, and I cashed once. But the story of how I cashed is worth a listen.

The contest was season-long. You had to choose 10 games a week from a printed menu of 20 games. Now, since there are, at minimum, 50-some lined college football games each week, the contest did not allow you to use more than half the games. The games in the contest were not chosen randomly. They were mainly top 20 feature games and Pac 10 games. This format does not favor me, as I bet more non-feature games than feature.

In any event, I had two entries in the contest, and there were a total of just under 300 total entries. Heading into the final week, my entries were in fifth or sixth and 11th or 12th place, respectively. I had been doing quite well.

I got the entry card for the final week. Final weeks are always hard, as there are fewer overall games, coaches are on the move, and weather is generally involved in many games. I planned on actually betting just two or three games that final weekend before heading back home to Tennessee. When I got the contest entry card, I was flummoxed. The card had just one of the couple of games I wanted to bet, and it was the worst of them.

I had two entries. Both were in the money, although the second one just barely. I was 20 games over .500 on my lead card, so I had been in total control, pretty much, throughout the season. I knew what I was doing.

I also felt, however, that nothing on the contest entry card was a good bet. One game was marginal. That was it. I had absolutely no opinion on the games listed. Just no opinion. Now here I was -- the guy who had been the college profit champ three of the final five years of the "Tipsters or Gypsters" publication, the college football specialist dude, and I had no idea.

So I was faced with two choices: (1) Analyze the games to the best of my ability and choose 10 games for each entry or (2) Use a reverse lineup on the card in 11th or 12th place. There wasn't a lot of money at stake -- maybe 5K, although that was 12K or thereabouts in today's money.

I considered just firing with both cards, and then I talked myself out of it. That Clint Eastwood line from Magnum Force stayed with me, "A man's gotta know his limitations." I did the best I could with my lead card lineup, and then used a complete reversal lineup on the second card because, really, I had no idea who would cover. Three months of work to get where I was, and I had decided I didn't know what I was doing the final week. Not really the way one likes to perceive oneself, but it was the truth.

The outcome was that the lead card went 1-9 ATS. The backup card went 9-1 and leapfrogged into a tie for second place. I made a good chunk of money, and a lack of arrogance was the reason. Knowing what I didn't know.