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Thread: LMS -- Losing is a Bitch

  1. #1
    So I was in an LMS contest at Topbet, and it came down to two of us out of a starting field of 203. LMS contests, unfortunately, are generally NFL contests for those unfamiliar.

    I have no real excuses. The other guy was more daring in his team choices early, leaving him with better options later. I'll discuss that briefly in a bit. I had used all of the teams that were double digit faves previously, so the technically correct thing for me to do was to take the biggest remaining favorite available to me. I cringed when I realized it was the Vikings. if there's one thing I never do in LMS contests, it's pick against a winless team after the sixth or seventh week. I just don't do that. But I was faced with either taking the Vikings or taking the Eagles, who were minus their starting QB and RB, and whose line had dropped to -5 while Minnesota was -7 1/2.

    I took the Vikings, and sat there as winless Detroit went the length of the field with no timeouts and scored on the final play of the game. Brutal.

    I also was eliminated in the Heritage LMS contest, which was down to under 2% of the original entrants.

    I can't really complain. The other guy in Topbet did a better job than I did. He was more daring early, which left him with more options later. The question we've debated around here about LMS contests is a semi-math question. If it's true (and it is) that spreads later in the season are more accurate than lines early in a season, then isn't a -7 the first month of the NFL season actually a "soft" -7, while the same line Week 11 or 12 is a "hard" -7. Thus, taking a -7 as opposed to a -10 fave early in the season is really not a big deal, since the lines are more speculative, while taking a -7 versus a -10 late is a much riskier move.

    Something to consider in LMS contests down the road.

  2. #2
    We still call them suicide pools. Probably not a good term in 2021 but I don’t change easily.

    Had 5 plays ($20 each) in a 4000 plus entry one that is now down to 22 after Sunday, none of which are mine. I did a mix of strategies trying to save the “better” teams for later but expecting teams like CAR and ATL to win earlier in the year killed me. But obviously I wasn’t alone. Here is last weeks picks to show you weren’t alone with the Vikings.

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  3. #3
    Wow, that is a lot of Eagles. I deserved my fate. I love Gardner Minshew, and I hate picking against winless teams. But I sat there and thought if I lose with a -5 when I could have taken a -7 1/2, that is really an error. Just a bad decision on my part.

    By the way, the two options I had were Eagles and Vikes. The rest of the teams on that chart, I had already used.

  4. #4
    Thought I’d post an update for you RED to show, as you know, luck often is the deciding factor in these contests. 3 still have the Vikings and Eagles so it isn’t over for the week yet. But imagine saving Tampa and AZ all year to have them stink up the field like both did. Granted both had problems with WR injuries but still both are the far superior teams. While “saving” Miami paid off.

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  5. #5
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Thought I’d post an update for you RED to show, as you know, luck often is the deciding factor in these contests. 3 still have the Vikings and Eagles so it isn’t over for the week yet. But imagine saving Tampa and AZ all year to have them stink up the field like both did. Granted both had problems with WR injuries but still both are the far superior teams. While “saving” Miami paid off.

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    Oh, I know, Boz. I know. I have one remaining entry in an LMS (it was free), and 28 people were left heading into this weekend. Thankfully, I didn't have Arizona available to me, so I had to choose between the 49ers and the Eagles. I went with SF. This one has 20K for the winner, so I'd like to make a run at it.

    We had huge debates a couple of years ago about LMS philosophies. There were three of us, and the three of us had completely different ideas, and I couldn't really debunk the other two guys. We each had some decent points. One guy said to just get through the week in front of you, and commit most entries to your best play that week. And he didn't want road teams (Detroit was a killer at home this season). The other guy wanted to spread a lot based on the fact that early in the season, what people think are good teams is speculative. I wanted to design flow charts for half the season, then regroup and design more. None of us was wrong per se, but we really, really disagreed.

    Now, with covid, all the saving of teams may turn out to be a complete waste. I gotta pick three more winners to get a piece of the 20K, so no pressure. LOL.

  6. #6
    Looks as if Seattle is first in line for next week for me. Well, that's cringeworthy, but it's probably the way to go.

  7. #7
    Boz,

    Here's an interesting game theory and personal preferences question. I don't believe most of the hardcore math guys read this section, but maybe they'd have some thoughts.

    I have reviewed most of the selections of the 28 people remaining. It looks as if almost all of them have Seattle, currently a seven-point favorite at home versus the Bears, available next week. Seattle would be my biggest available favorite.

    So here's the question. Assuming there's roughly 20 people left after today, and assuming that at least 15 or 16 will likely plug into Seattle next week. should a contestant take Seattle? Or is the percentage strategy to take a different team or the opposite side of the Seattle game, namely the Bears? Radical idea? Not really. Seattle is now a -7 versus the Bears, thus a -300 or -320. That means they are 75% to win the game outright. Yet if you take Seattle in the LMS, at least 75% of the contestants figure to take them, too. That renders Seattle of very little value.

    If Seattle wins, and you take them, you still must get through two final weeks, and you'll be splitting the 20K. If, however, you were to take the Bears, you may have just a 25% chance to win, but if you do, you'll have a shot at the entire 20K because the majority of the contestants will have been eliminated.

    Interesting options. If I had a reasonable second choice to Seattle, I'd strongly consider it. But I don't. I'd need to take Atlanta or somebody like that. Seattle is cringeworthy, but the Falcons make me barf.

  8. #8
    Redietz--my problem with that is the Bears couldn't beat the Sisters of the Blind right now!! And might actually be getting points.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Redietz--my problem with that is the Bears couldn't beat the Sisters of the Blind right now!! And might actually be getting points.

    It is a little strange to see a rookie QB start his career by playing as if he's just trying to get through each game without getting hurt or looking too stupid. Seattle looks like they've surrendered for the season, and Wilson should be elsewhere next year. Pick your poison. Seattle's at home, so unless Wilson gets hurt today, I'll probably have them.

  10. #10
    Yes--Fields was getting a pass here in Chicago until the way he looked last night.

    I was having a pretty good year for small money. Then 2 weeks ago I was 1 and 4. With COVID and teams not even trying I decided to shut it down until the playoffs. By the way, after those licks at Kentucky Downs I got sloppy and lost 40K back. Had to get myself back under control.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Redietz--my problem with that is the Bears couldn't beat the Sisters of the Blind right now!! And might actually be getting points.

    It is a little strange to see a rookie QB start his career by playing as if he's just trying to get through each game without getting hurt or looking too stupid. Seattle looks like they've surrendered for the season, and Wilson should be elsewhere next year. Pick your poison. Seattle's at home, so unless Wilson gets hurt today, I'll probably have them.
    Sounds like you don’t have any other good options other than Seattle left but you obviously want to see if they even show up tonight or get any bad injuries. Getting a 7 point favorite isn’t the worst situation at this point but I saw some potential in Fields last night until he got close to the Red Zone. Still I can’t see taking them if Wilson is playing, which the way things are going isn’t a sure thing for any player these days.

    I assume you have a general idea who you would take the last 2 weeks based on the schedule and who you have left. Looking at Seattle I see they host the Lions the following week which could make them an even bigger favorite, but we know how that worked out for Arizona. Atlanta is a smaller favorite but Goff is on the Covid list at this point. So back to the math, is the odds better taking Atlanta this week and Seattle both home against the Lions? Obviously you won’t want Atlanta next week on the road against Buffalo.

    I know you have a few other options but at this point I’d look at all the options for the last 3 weeks and make the best plan based on the lines you see the games having. And before Covid throws a total wrench in the plans. Good luck!

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Yes--Fields was getting a pass here in Chicago until the way he looked last night.

    I was having a pretty good year for small money. Then 2 weeks ago I was 1 and 4. With COVID and teams not even trying I decided to shut it down until the playoffs. By the way, after those licks at Kentucky Downs I got sloppy and lost 40K back. Had to get myself back under control.
    Those Kentucky Downs scores would have given anyone an earned overconfidence.

    I've been watching Fields each week, and I think he's on cruise control, which means I guess he knows Nagy is going to be fired and he's been told it's A-OK to just take it easy and don't get yourself killed.

    Honestly, I'm not sure what to make of trying to tackle NFL futures. The only future that I have right now is the Bengals at +240 to win their division. They've been really raggedy, but the Ravens keep gifting me by going for two. I could understand doing it the first time, but if you come back from 14 down versus the Packers, I kick.

    I've been holding off and holding off on the Titans and 49ers, and now they play each other. Covid is going to blow everything up, anyway. Any of these teams can come down with 20 cases tomorrow, and that'll determine divisions and Super Bowls. So taking short priced teams is a no go.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Redietz--my problem with that is the Bears couldn't beat the Sisters of the Blind right now!! And might actually be getting points.

    It is a little strange to see a rookie QB start his career by playing as if he's just trying to get through each game without getting hurt or looking too stupid. Seattle looks like they've surrendered for the season, and Wilson should be elsewhere next year. Pick your poison. Seattle's at home, so unless Wilson gets hurt today, I'll probably have them.
    Sounds like you don’t have any other good options other than Seattle left but you obviously want to see if they even show up tonight or get any bad injuries. Getting a 7 point favorite isn’t the worst situation at this point but I saw some potential in Fields last night until he got close to the Red Zone. Still I can’t see taking them if Wilson is playing, which the way things are going isn’t a sure thing for any player these days.

    I assume you have a general idea who you would take the last 2 weeks based on the schedule and who you have left. Looking at Seattle I see they host the Lions the following week which could make them an even bigger favorite, but we know how that worked out for Arizona. Atlanta is a smaller favorite but Goff is on the Covid list at this point. So back to the math, is the odds better taking Atlanta this week and Seattle both home against the Lions? Obviously you won’t want Atlanta next week on the road against Buffalo.

    I know you have a few other options but at this point I’d look at all the options for the last 3 weeks and make the best plan based on the lines you see the games having. And before Covid throws a total wrench in the plans. Good luck!
    Thanks, Boz. It sounds as if you're also a flow chart guy, which is what I try to do for the year by breaking the year into thirds.

  14. #14
    Well, that was disturbing. All 28 people made it through to the next week. Wow. And 27 of us have Seattle available to us.

    I hate to be one of the sheep, but unless I come up with a better idea, I think I'm just going to go with the flow. If 20 of us make it to the end, that's just 1K each, but I don't really see another reasonable way forward.

    The way things have gone makes the counterprogramming (someone else or the Bears) look even better. But I'm not sure I have the insane cajones for that.

    God, now I have to really consider the Falcons. Gag me with a spoon.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Well, that was disturbing. All 28 people made it through to the next week. Wow. And 27 of us have Seattle available to us.

    I hate to be one of the sheep, but unless I come up with a better idea, I think I'm just going to go with the flow. If 20 of us make it to the end, that's just 1K each, but I don't really see another reasonable way forward.

    The way things have gone makes the counterprogramming (someone else or the Bears) look even better. But I'm not sure I have the insane cajones for that.

    God, now I have to really consider the Falcons. Gag me with a spoon.
    Depends how much time you have and what it’s worth to you but at this point your value is around $714. I still think I would have a plan for all 3 weeks as best you can not knowing both the Covid situation and who may rest starters the final week or try a new QB. You should have 18 teams left and 13 AFC and 9 NFC teams are .500 or better so their not all dogs you have to use. But there are a lot of quality and divisional games left between teams that are both middling teams.

    Just my opinion but if Seattle is the biggest favorite of the week you have left and you don’t see using them in a better situation in the following weeks, you hold your nose and take them. I just don’t see any advantage in taking an underdog or pickem this late in the game if you have a better option.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Well, that was disturbing. All 28 people made it through to the next week. Wow. And 27 of us have Seattle available to us.

    I hate to be one of the sheep, but unless I come up with a better idea, I think I'm just going to go with the flow. If 20 of us make it to the end, that's just 1K each, but I don't really see another reasonable way forward.

    The way things have gone makes the counterprogramming (someone else or the Bears) look even better. But I'm not sure I have the insane cajones for that.

    God, now I have to really consider the Falcons. Gag me with a spoon.
    Depends how much time you have and what it’s worth to you but at this point your value is around $714. I still think I would have a plan for all 3 weeks as best you can not knowing both the Covid situation and who may rest starters the final week or try a new QB. You should have 18 teams left and 13 AFC and 9 NFC teams are .500 or better so their not all dogs you have to use. But there are a lot of quality and divisional games left between teams that are both middling teams.

    Just my opinion but if Seattle is the biggest favorite of the week you have left and you don’t see using them in a better situation in the following weeks, you hold your nose and take them. I just don’t see any advantage in taking an underdog or pickem this late in the game if you have a better option.

    Greed is not one of my weaknesses, so that's likely what I'll do. However, Seattle hosts Detroit the following week, so there's that. I suspect, mathematically, what I should do is choose some four point fave, swallow the difference between that fave at -200 and Seattle at -300, hope Seattle loses to the Bears, and save Seattle for the following week. But there are no guarantees anyone even fields a team the last two weeks, so factoring that in, I'm befuddled.

    Probably Seahawks. I will review it all and report back when I have the weeks laid out.

    Well, lines have shifted, so Atlanta up to -6 and Seattle down to -6 1/2. LOL. Here's some synchronicity for you. Cleaning some shelving units in the garage today, and I found one of those plastic helmets from a vending machine. It must be 20 years old, at least, as everything else was, and the helmet I found was the Falcons with the old logo. Synchronicity or the devil sending me down the path to hell? Only the righteous know for sure, and I'm not righteous.
    Last edited by redietz; 12-22-2021 at 02:54 PM.

  17. #17
    This weeks selections from those left. 1 winner with GB so far.

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  18. #18
    Well, I wound up using the Chargers. I had them available, the line kept blowing up due to Houston losing players, and I couldn't really pass on a 13-point favorite as opposed to the other two.

    So of course they are losing right now. LOL. We'll see how it pans out.

    That probably parallels with what happened in your pool. I didn't really want to use them, but I couldn't see passing on them.

  19. #19
    Well, as I started off this thread...losing is a bitch. The reason I didn't want the Chargers is that they were coming off the KC game, which was a game for which they would have prepared more than any other game this season. Losing while botching a bunch of fourth downs was not something one could easily shake off.

    But realistically, when I was confronted with a -13 versus a -7 for Falcons or Seattle, I felt as if I had to take them.

    And on we go.

    Chargers are going to also hurt me in the YouWager NFL contest I mentioned in another thread. I was 30th heading into today out of 228, and Chargers opening line which is used in the contest was - 8 1/2, so I had to plug them in. Right now, they are my only loser today thus far. Ouch.
    Last edited by redietz; 12-26-2021 at 01:22 PM.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Well, as I started off this thread...losing is a bitch. The reason I didn't want the Chargers is that they were coming off the KC game, which was a game for which they would have prepared more than any other game this season. Losing while botching a bunch of fourth downs was not something one could easily shake off.

    But realistically, when I was confronted with a -13 versus a -7 for Falcons or Seattle, I felt as if I had to take them.

    And on we go.
    You still have your health.

    And now you get to hear from Singer how you can’t even pick a winner straight up with a 13 point spread, lol.

    No good deed goes unpunished.
    Last edited by The Boz; 12-26-2021 at 01:31 PM.

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