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Thread: LMS -- Losing is a Bitch

  1. #21
    Normally, if confronted by -13 versus -7, I don't waste a second in debate. But this one, I did. Chargers were minus Ekeler and Williams, who I think is their best receiver. Houston was missing mega-players. It was a mess, and one can make the case that (as at Penn National there are no actual 1-2 favorites), in a game like this, nobody is -13 against anyone.

    I have Buff +2 1/2, Rams -3 and Bengals -2 1/2 (opening line) in YouWager today, along with Wash +10. So Chargers -8 1/2 hurt. Will probably cost me five spots or more.

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Normally, if confronted by -13 versus -7, I don't waste a second in debate. But this one, I did. Chargers were minus Ekeler and Williams, who I think is their best receiver. Houston was missing mega-players. It was a mess, and one can make the case that (as at Penn National there are no actual 1-2 favorites), in a game like this, nobody is -13 against anyone.

    I have Buff +2 1/2, Rams -3 and Bengals -2 1/2 (opening line) in YouWager today, along with Wash +10. So Chargers -8 1/2 hurt. Will probably cost me five spots or more.
    Definitely need the Redskins (still the Skins to me) because 3-2 probably won’t mean much in the contest world. In ours, it’s a great day.

    As for Penn National, the stories we could both tell that few today would understand or care about.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Normally, if confronted by -13 versus -7, I don't waste a second in debate. But this one, I did. Chargers were minus Ekeler and Williams, who I think is their best receiver. Houston was missing mega-players. It was a mess, and one can make the case that (as at Penn National there are no actual 1-2 favorites), in a game like this, nobody is -13 against anyone.

    I have Buff +2 1/2, Rams -3 and Bengals -2 1/2 (opening line) in YouWager today, along with Wash +10. So Chargers -8 1/2 hurt. Will probably cost me five spots or more.
    Definitely need the Redskins (still the Skins to me) because 3-2 probably won’t mean much in the contest world. In ours, it’s a great day.

    As for Penn National, the stories we could both tell that few today would understand or care about.
    Yeah, I needed a sweep heading into the Redskin (oh, sorry WTF, oh sorry, WFT) game to have a shot at the top 20. I had Browns the other night (six games per week), so I was looking pretty good. I just checked, and I'm 29th.

    I miss Penn National.

    Will report tomorrow.

  4. #24
    Oh, and for the record, Boz, I didn't bet any of the sides in the contest I mentioned. I bet two totals teasers today -- one of them won and one of them lost. That was it. I wouldn't bet NFL sides at this point. Value is all messed up. As soon as people come off the covid list, people bet that team, and it doesn't really make sense because you're betting on players who were sick the week before. Mayfield, for example, didn't look right the other night. He's been hurt all season, I know, but he played like someone coming off a concussion.

  5. #25
    St Nick (or BDN) delivered a win for the Bears so Seattle would have just as much a loser, and even a more frustrating one. Atlanta was the one winner we discussed but it’s easy to say that now.

    My old pool is now down to 8 with an expected value of around $8,000 per person left. In past years there was some deals made to split around this time of year when less than 5 were left. Since it is run by a “non profit” they can do what they want if all involved agree.

    Not sure what you have going on bowl games but it’s a disaster with games being canceled and others looking for new teams with a few days to go with Miami backing out. Sitting out or flipping a coin rank right up there with trying to handicap these games at this point.

  6. #26
    The only bowls I've bet were a teaser with Liberty and Tulsa, which netted me half a win because I hedged the second half of the Tulsa game (like an idiot) for half the money because Tulsa was off the rails with personal foul and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties the first half. Tulsa actually should have been whistled for more 15-yarders than what were called. The coach really did not have control of them.

    I'm 29th in YouWager. Not going to cash, so that's a wrap. Twelve games over .500, which I normally take in a sec in the NFL.

    Seattle was brutal. LOL.

    The bowls are shot. You have to be nuts to bet these things. Covid has taken me out of my comfort zone for middles shooting because no amount of line and public preference expertise is worth anything. I probably bet 25% of what I normally bet this season.

    Boz, I'm going to make an end-of-year statement for kewlJ's thread about how the year went. It'll mention some very interesting line situations that many may not be aware of. I think the one thing I'll do here in 2022 is post a sports handicapping history thread. It'll post many of the things that coach and Singer keep challenging -- where's the corroboration!?! I have plenty of corroboration, so I thank coach for giving me an opening.

    Tony Salinas died last year (March, 2020), and I received his biography as a gift. It turns out Salinas was in the 1984 Who's Who in Sports Gambling that I was also in. I had forgotten that. I will probably start with the short bio of Salinas from the Who's Who and then post intro pages from the Who's Who so people can tell what kind of publication it was. Rick Hall, also a handicapper, was so sick of the Mike Warrens and Danny Sheridans of the world that he took it upon himself to publish the book. Hall was a publisher, but he wasn't really a writer or editor, so the book is not polished in any way, but he really tried to do the right thing. Salinas is one of a handful of famous names in the book. Todd probably knows of Salinas, as Salinas was (like Binion) a Texas implant who brought hold 'em to Las Vegas.
    Last edited by redietz; 12-27-2021 at 09:34 AM.

  7. #27
    I think I said somewhere in this Forum that "the Bears couldn't beat the Sisters of the Blind". So now the question is would the Sisters be favored over a Seattle team that clearly doesn't care.

    Although once it snowed and Foles got the start I did reconsider but still passed.

  8. #28
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I think I said somewhere in this Forum that "the Bears couldn't beat the Sisters of the Blind". So now the question is would the Sisters be favored over a Seattle team that clearly doesn't care.

    Although once it snowed and Foles got the start I did reconsider but still passed.
    I thought they had the potential to score more points with Foles, and Foles starting was a serious consideration for me. It meant they'd have an actual two-minute drill.

    I don't generally recommend teasers with most books, as the open-for-perpetuity is almost extinct now, but I teased the Falcons Over with the Seattle Over, so that won. Then I had the JVille/Jets Over teased with Denver/Raiders Over, which lost with a thud the second half of the latter game. I thought Lock would make for more risks on offense than Bridgewater. It was ugly.

    I was losing that LMS no matter what, so all I can do is soldier on and salute the winners.

    Hey regnis, Tony Salinas was a big time horse player back in the day. Had you heard of him at all? I don't remember if it was him or Mike Lee (they were partners in High Rollers) who won one of the first Castaways contests (1K entrance fee, pick every NFL game against the spread all season). But he was as much a horse player and poker player as a sports bettor.

  9. #29
    I have to report this, not because it's terribly significant, but as a combination of bragging, my own stupidity, and a warning to others who are in contests.

    So it turned out there is a monthly prize pool for the YouWager NFL contest. Well, as Dirty Harry says, in all the excitement, I kind of lost track myself.

    For December, I tied, with seven other people, for second place. Thus, I picked up a grand total of $171 in free play. That's the good news. The bad news is that I could have won if my final game of the month, the inestimable Redskins, I mean WFT, hadn't gotten blasted. So had I known I was tied for first, I would have hedged for half the value and at least made $800 or thereabouts.

    The lesson from all this is, as my girlfriend keeps telling me, READ THE RULES. I pass that sage advice along to everyone else.

  10. #30
    Figured I’d update this for the final time. 8 people survived and split the cash. I do know there was some hedging on the Texans at around +425 going on and they almost pulled it out.

    Still a great accomplishment for those 8 who survived 18 weeks in a season with so many good teams having bad losses at one point or another in the season.

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