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Thread: NFL Handicapping -- The Leader is Statistically Killing It

  1. #1
    Last season, I finished tied for second in the YouWager NFL handicapping competition. I will have to look up my record, but that was probably a high water mark to never be matched again for me in the NFL.

    This year, the contest has 228 entrants -- you have to fulfill certain deposit and wagering criteria. I'm sitting 44th with a bunch of games left this week, including Raiders +6, Rams -4 1/2 and Eagles -5.

    In my experience, NFL sides handicapping is probably the most difficult sport at which to win. There are savants in college hoops and college football, and there are NBA totals specialists, but nobody is really an NFL sides specialist who has won at more than about a 55% clip lifetime.

    My sitting in 44th is seven games over .500. The person winning the contest is on a veritable rampage, with a record 34 games over .500 while taking six games per week thus far.

    Math geeks should follow along, as the YouWager leader, with 228 entrants, is outperforming the SuperBook contest leaders, and the SuperBook has many times this number of entrants.

  2. #2
    Well, just 32 people viewed this. Did Rob? Did coach?

    I bump this because, accidentally, I listed three NFL sides I used in a contest ahead of the games being played, which is an egregious break in my protocol. I won't do it again.

    I guess now I should be criticized for listing games I used and not announcing that in CAPS.

    Oh well, I hope Rob was able to take advantage and pay off part of his last Las Vegas trip.

    P.S. I moved up to 33rd out of the 228. The three leaders are, unbelievably, 36, 29, and 27 games over .500 after picking six games per week. They are just killing it. Murdering it bigtime.
    Last edited by redietz; 12-22-2021 at 09:53 AM.

  3. #3
    Have you seen RidetheEdge in our contest? He's 34 games over .500 picking five games per week with an optional, "Confidence Pick," that can either be two wins or two losses. JohnZimbo is 28 games over .500 and then there's a big drop off to 20 games over .500...but this is out of only 21 players.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Have you seen RidetheEdge in our contest? He's 34 games over .500 picking five games per week with an optional, "Confidence Pick," that can either be two wins or two losses. JohnZimbo is 28 games over .500 and then there's a big drop off to 20 games over .500...but this is out of only 21 players.

    That's fantastic. These NFL records are incredible. Unprecedented. Out of 21 players, that is truly remarkable. I can't think of a contest -- ever -- with that few players with those kinds of records.

    Now you would think that the covid line moves could have accounted for most of it, but actually NFL side moves of two points or more had been losing up until three weeks ago. So it's not just covid line moves fueling the massive winning.

    In a normal year, my 10 games over .500 in YouWager would put me somewhere in the top 20 and within 10 games of the leader at this point, but I'm not even close.

  5. #5
    Update on the YouWager NFL contest. I went 5-1 ATS this week to move into a tie for 21st. I'm 16 games over .500, which is nowhere close to cashing. I would take 16 games over .500 for an NFL season in a heartbeat, but this year it is not good enough.

    The leader is a monstrous 37 games over .500. Second place is 31 games over .500, and third is 29 games over .500 heading into Monday night.

    I have never seen results like this in an NFL ATS contest with any amount of people, much less just 228.

  6. #6
    Final Report:

    I finished up with a 3-3 ATS mark the final week, which leaves me 16 games over .500 for the season. The leader is an unbelievable 40 games over .500. That translates into 71-31 against the spread.

  7. #7
    If the leader is putting his money where his mouth is so to speak, he’s having a hell of a profitable year.

    And obviously your results are nothing to be ashamed of. Not bad for a guy that considers the NFL an afterthought.

    And in my best Singer voice “But you didn’t show the picks first so it’s part of your scam”.

    By the way, you’re not getting any younger so you probably should start soliciting more customers. You may be a decent handicapper, but as a businessman you suck!

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    If the leader is putting his money where his mouth is so to speak, he’s having a hell of a profitable year.

    And obviously your results are nothing to be ashamed of. Not bad for a guy that considers the NFL an afterthought.

    And in my best Singer voice “But you didn’t show the picks first so it’s part of your scam”.

    By the way, you’re not getting any younger so you probably should start soliciting more customers. You may be a decent handicapper, but as a businessman you suck!

    Yes I do. There was an old comment/joke about me. Until I was 35, I never kept a client who actually met me in person, except for a Jewish accountant. Now one can only speculate why that might be (note: about 90% of my clients were wealthy white males over the age of 50 who were often CEO's or presidents of companies). Politics? LOL.

    I have never seen a 71-31 ATS record in a season-long NFL contest before. And I've been doing this since 1979. I was in an online contest sponsored by Playbook once, about 12 or 13 years ago, before they combined with Feist, and I won 17 in a row while getting to 66-34 ATS. But I didn't win and really was not that close. Now that contest, there was one guy who annihilated the totals for the Mountain West and Pac 12. He had a comparable record to the 71-31 guy. But that:

    1) Was not NFL only.
    2) You could play totals.
    3) You could play however many or few games each week; not forced-choice six games

    So that ballpark 71-31 was not as difficult as this NFL 71-31.

    By the way, I have more clients than you think. I keep them in a storage locker in Arizona. I took their payments and bought a nice Madden Cruiser, which I sold last week to a wealthy Samoan couple so I could pay for cat food. With the development on every side of me, the animals are all retreating to my property, and I feel bad in winter. We have raccoons, two enormous possums (one of which is blond), about a dozen feral cats, deer, foxes, and a couple of owls. A pack of coyotes lives about a hundred yards away on the train route. I'm thinking of opening a petting zoo. The owls, however, are mean. Even the coyotes are scared of them.

  9. #9

  10. #10
    The Fight Song for redietz and the Washington Football Team...


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