The People Vs. Vegas Dave: The Vegas Dave Movie

[Desertrunner]

I dont know the story here and maybe Druff will chime in and explain...

[MisterV]

Some background:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyak...h=1c7eb07b5488

[kewlJ]

He is quoted in the article as saying "he doesn't mess with math".

That is all that needs to be said.

[redietz]

Some background:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyak...h=1c7eb07b5488

Okay, kewlJ, Desertrunner, MrV, here we go. He may not be precise with math, but Vegas Dave knows what language to use.

This guy's been around a while. He's who I was referring to when I mentioned a futures player who spun off a Royals cash into famous-ness. Without context (who else did he bet for how much), that Royals future has limited gravitas. USA Today, unfortunately, did a piece on him about the Royals hit.

I wanted to focus on one thing quoted in the Forbes piece that will resonate with people criticizing Singer-type of machine gambling. The Forbes piece mentions that Vegas Dave claims one of his "packages" wins about 85% of the time. The piece then contrasts that with Mr. Walters, who has mentioned that he wins about 57% of his bets.

"Bets" is not the same thing as "packages," which the Forbes piece conveniently butchers. A "package" could very well refer to a martingale type of progression betting strategy that uses a series of bets, not a single bet. Defining series of bets as "sessions" for the purposes of my analogy, one could conceivably win about 85% of "sessions." Technically, claiming to win 85% of your "packages" -- AKA "sessions" -- is not at all the same as claiming to win 85% of your bets. One can win 85% of one's sessions while losing overall. Ask the progressive machine players.

In addition, by betting money lines, one can muddy the waters further.

I wish Forbes had gotten the language more precise. They create problems by naively equating "packages" with "bets." Vegas Dave could conceivably blast them for the error, and maybe even sue them for suggesting he's claiming something he is not, in fact, necessarily claiming.

It's almost identical to Singer claiming to win 80-90% of his "sessions," which guarantees nothing overall. Saying that Bob Dancer claims to win only 45% of his hands is a non sequitur to Singer's claims that he wins 80-90% of his sessions.

[kewlJ]

I don't know anything about this person, "Vegas Dave" other than what I just read. I don't watch or follow anyone on youtube, other than what is linked or posted here. I don't watch reality shows.

But here is the dead give away to me for all these people....I am not speaking of anyone in particular. If they are a great player (gambler) at whatever game they claim, why do they need and have an ongoing alternate stream of income? If they are really winning as they claim, they already have the keys to unlimited riches.

The first to create this "other" stream was the sports handicappers, when they began selling picks. If a sports handicapper really can hit at 55%, 57%, God forbid 60% (lets not even get into numbers claimed above that), you would literally already have the holy grail. There would be no need for this other stream of income.

Poker players also did that with all the books. It is ok to write a book, but when you are popping out a book every year as many used to do, back before social media and youtube and all, well why do you need that? Is your source of income poker or a new book every year?

With blackjack we had guys who wrote numerous books back in the day and more recently guys running "bootcamps" and schools. I mean if you really are a top winning blackjack player, why are you reduced to running bootcamps and schools?

So fast forward to modern times, now we have youtube and social media and all these other platforms, which I don't even know how the monetizing of videos works, but I just question, if you really are some great player at whatever you claim, why are you making videos and not out there winning?

That is not to say that anyone that writes a book is a fraud and not a winning player. There are some really top AP's that have written a book. Grosjean, Schlesinger, just to name a couple that come to mind. You just get the feeling their books aren't about the money. These are guys that don't need the money. I am talking about the guys that pop out a new book every couple years (kind of a thing of the past now with other platforms). If these guys were such great players, why the need for this other stream of income.

And finally, I will want to mention Norm Wattenberger (Qfit) in this context. I have had many issues with Norm over the years. But one of the things I most respect about him, is he wrote a very comprehensive blackjack book, Modern Blackjack. 500+ pages I believe, with extensive charts and graphs for easy understanding. You can tell that was a lifetime of work. And he made and continues to make this fine work free of charge for anyone who wants it through his website. Absolutely free download. I have always respected that. And back when I had a book deal a few years ago, that I couldn't have a free or very inexpensive download was one of the reasons my deal fell apart. I didn't want to make money off the project. I am a blackjack player. THAT is how I make my money.

And finally, I have seen some video from people like Slotlady is it, that has videos of all sorts of casino play, including blackjack filmed at El Cortez. I have never heard this person claim that they make money from their play. She makes money from the video stream, and again, I have no idea how any of that even works, but at least she is honest about that. These people claiming to be a professional player or sports better that have need a reoccurring other source of income just don't fly.

[redietz]

I don't know anything about this person, "Vegas Dave" other than what I just read. I don't watch or follow anyone on youtube, other than what is linked or posted here. I don't watch reality shows.

But here is the dead give away to me for all these people....I am not speaking of anyone in particular. If they are a great player (gambler) at whatever game they claim, why do they need and have an ongoing alternate stream of income? If they are really winning as they claim, they already have the keys to unlimited riches.

The first to create this "other" stream was the sports handicappers, when they began selling picks. If a sports handicapper really can hit at 55%, 57%, God forbid 60% (lets not even get into numbers claimed above that), you would literally already have the holy grail. There would be no need for this other stream of income.

Poker players also did that with all the books. It is ok to write a book, but when you are popping out a book every year as many used to do, back before social media and youtube and all, well why do you need that? Is your source of income poker or a new book every year?

With blackjack we had guys who wrote numerous books back in the day and more recently guys running "bootcamps" and schools. I mean if you really are a top winning blackjack player, why are you reduced to running bootcamps and schools?

So fast forward to modern times, now we have youtube and social media and all these other platforms, which I don't even know how the monetizing of videos works, but I just question, if you really are some great player at whatever you claim, why are you making videos and not out there winning?

That is not to say that anyone that writes a book is a fraud and not a winning player. There are some really top AP's that have written a book. Grosjean, Schlesinger, just to name a couple that come to mind. You just get the feeling their books aren't about the money. These are guys that don't need the money. I am talking about the guys that pop out a new book every couple years (kind of a thing of the past now with other platforms). If these guys were such great players, why the need for this other stream of income.

And finally, I will want to mention Norm Wattenberger (Qfit) in this context. I have had many issues with Norm over the years. But one of the things I most respect about him, is he wrote a very comprehensive blackjack book, Modern Blackjack. 500+ pages I believe, with extensive charts and graphs for easy understanding. You can tell that was a lifetime of work. And he made and continues to make this fine work free of charge for anyone who wants it through his website. Absolutely free download. I have always respected that. And back when I had a book deal a few years ago, that I couldn't have a free or very inexpensive download was one of the reasons my deal fell apart. I didn't want to make money off the project. I am a blackjack player. THAT is how I make my money.

And finally, I have seen some video from people like Slotlady is it, that has videos of all sorts of casino play, including blackjack filmed at El Cortez. I have never heard this person claim that they make money from their play. She makes money from the video stream, and again, I have no idea how any of that even works, but at least she is honest about that. These people claiming to be a professional player or sports better that have need a reoccurring other source of income just don't fly.

I hope Boz does a follow-up to this, but I can outline two obvious, major reasons that a sports handicapper would sell games.

If you do a pay-after-you-win deal, with the client paying afterwards for a game that has won, what this does is (eventually) flip the odds. For example, let's take a legit handicapper who gives everyone the same games. If you, as a handicapper, hit 53%, as your client number grows, you have to hit a lower percentage to make a profit, because your clients are paying you after the game has won. Essentially, you can hit 48%, but with enough clients paying after they win, you can be in the black in terms of your own income. Similarly, if you hit 58%, then people paying after they win may grow your income so you are making the equivalent of what you would make if you hit 60% or more. You are potentially turning an 11-10 deficit (against a normal book) into an 11-10 advantage (or more).

You are, in the essential meaning of the word, AP'ing.

The second reason, and people have done this since Jimmy the Greek and in a different manner, Mr. Walters, is sell (or leak) game opinions. If you have an enormous following with money, you move the numbers. It can create middle shots -- huge opportunities. Mr. Walters, for example, didn't sell games, but when he bet midweek non-brand-name college games, the lines would move due to his reputation. He created his own middle shots via his reputation.

[kewlJ]

The second reason, and people have done this since Jimmy the Greek and in a different manner, Mr. Walters, is sell (or leak) game opinions. If you have an enormous following with money, you move the numbers. It can create middle shots -- huge opportunities. Mr. Walters, for example, didn't sell games, but when he bet midweek non-brand-name college games, the lines would move due to his reputation. He created his own middle shots via his reputation.

I have no doubt that is how your industry works and has worked for decades. You would know better than me. So a top, known handicapper is giving out one side....not the side he believes will win, so that he can bet the other side when the lines moves. What you just described, when people do this with the stock market it is illegal, and they can go to jail. Rarely do, but it is illegal.

I mean I just go back if anyone, "Vegas whoever" is really a top handicapper, a professional level handicapper, he should just make his picks and get rich. There would be no need for selling anything and other sources of income from sales. Once they are on all these radio shows and I suspect gambling "rags" before that, and now all these other internet related platforms, selling, then they are not this great handicapper, they are a great salesman. No?

[mickeycrimm]

There have been a few exceptions where video poker pros have made as high as 7 figures over a few year period but its not the rule. If Dancer is to be believed he's said more than once that he has averaged 100K a year for about 25 years. He's certainly gone after other income with books, strategy cards, magazine articles, etc. According to one column he wrote he was paid 40K a year by one casino chain for a few years for consulting.

99 and 44 hundreds percent of all professional video poker players have made less than Dancer. It's just not and never was a "sky's the limit" play. Dancer found a way to increase his income. But at the same time he wizened up casino execs which cost a lot of other vp pros some money.

Youtube will pay anybody and everybody that can upload content that gets views. Its a whole cottage industry going on. Think of any skill, occupation, leisure activity. There are thousands with videos on youtube showing how it's done. From videos Ive seen youtube pays about $1.50 to $2 per thousand views. Plus alot of these youtubers have patron support. You will see them at the end of the video thanking their patreon supporters for sending them money.

I think youtube makes its money from advertisers.

[redietz]

The second reason, and people have done this since Jimmy the Greek and in a different manner, Mr. Walters, is sell (or leak) game opinions. If you have an enormous following with money, you move the numbers. It can create middle shots -- huge opportunities. Mr. Walters, for example, didn't sell games, but when he bet midweek non-brand-name college games, the lines would move due to his reputation. He created his own middle shots via his reputation.

I have no doubt that is how your industry works and has worked for decades. You would know better than me. So a top, known handicapper is giving out one side....not the side he believes will win, so that he can bet the other side when the lines moves. What you just described, when people do this with the stock market it is illegal, and they can go to jail. Rarely do, but it is illegal.

I mean I just go back if anyone, "Vegas whoever" is really a top handicapper, a professional level handicapper, he should just make his picks and get rich. There would be no need for selling anything and other sources of income from sales. Once they are on all these radio shows and I suspect gambling "rags" before that, and now all these other internet related platforms, selling, then they are not this great handicapper, they are a great salesman. No?

I want to be clear -- it can be the side you think will win. By launching early, however, you get the best number. By leaking (or selling) who you took, you create a middle opportunity, which is a core facet of sports betting these days.