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Thread: What about loss goals?

  1. #1
    If a person is to have 3X400 credits for his bankroll, what would be the stopping point? I have considered changing casinos if 1/3 of this bankroll is lost. Usually if I don't have any type of cashouts the day is a bummer anyhow. Win goals is an important topic, but what about loss goals?

  2. #2
    I don't really believe in gambling loss goals per se, unless you're talking about video poker and playing a negative machine. I think it's more important to evaluate how things should play out beforehand, and if events deviate horribly from what was anticipated, then (just to be safe) one has to consider whether something is wrong with the machine, the casino, or what you think is proper strategy. Moving would then be the safe thing to do, because it takes problems with the machine or casino out of the equation.

  3. #3
    Loss limits are like win goals. I think you set them at your own comfort level.

    redietz I find your comments ironic: "(just to be safe) one has to consider whether something is wrong with the machine, the casino,..."

    Careful now, you might say something that Rob might say.

    And I also find it ironic that someone who criticizes win goals would even consider loss limits because that next touch of the button might be the royal...

  4. #4
    There's absolutely no way to determine how things might work out beforehand, regardless if you're playing FPDW or 6/5 BP. If you're not going to use a structured, goal-oriented strategy that increases in denomination, qty. of credits, and game volatility, then all you can do is hope you get a lucky hit on either game and have the discipline to quit when ahead.

    This nonsense of being able to expect to win just because one game has a higher theoretical return than the other is irrelevant during any casino visit, and just as all hands are separate individual events, so too are all individual casino visits.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    There's absolutely no way to determine how things might work out beforehand, regardless if you're playing FPDW or 6/5 BP. If you're not going to use a structured, goal-oriented strategy that increases in denomination, qty. of credits, and game volatility, then all you can do is hope you get a lucky hit on either game and have the discipline to quit when ahead.

    This nonsense of being able to expect to win just because one game has a higher theoretical return than the other is irrelevant during any casino visit, and just as all hands are separate individual events, so too are all individual casino visits.
    Yup, all hands are individual events. That's why no betting system can change anyone's expectation which has been proven mathematically. You know, a betting system like a "goal-oriented strategy that increases in denomination, qty. of credits, and game volatility".

    Once again ... holding two conflicting thoughts in your mind is called cognitive dissonance. It's a well understood psychological phenomenon. In itself it is not that unusual. What is unusual is when people continue to make the same claim after the conflict has been pointed out to them. At that time one can only wonder if there are other motives ...

  6. #6
    I'm thoroughly consistent, Alan, as in previous posts I've said I have little or no confidence in the Gaming Control Board protecting me from rigged or rogue chips and/or rogue casino administrators. Therefore, if things are deviating many standard deviations from what's anticipated, it makes no sense to not move, because running into one rogue chip or casino exec will flip your positive lifetime advantage right around pretty quickly. And, I would expect such "rogueness" in certain situations -- if the situations match the anomalous results, I think switching machines and/or casinos is prudent.

  7. #7
    redietz, the proverbial "shoe" seems to be on the other foot now. You wrote: "I've said I have little or no confidence in the Gaming Control Board protecting me from rigged or rogue chips and/or rogue casino administrators. Therefore, if things are deviating many standard deviations from what's anticipated,"

    Please tell me how you differentiate a random run of bad luck from a rigged machine? (Gosh, didn't we go through this when everyone was attacking Rob???)

  8. #8
    More of what I was hoping for is if you play 100 credits on bp and the machine shows signs of a cold cycle (just humor me, Alan)-and you leave for another machine and the situation repeats 3 more times on 3 more machines, that's 1/3 of your total bankroll. I would say get outta there.

  9. #9
    One cannot, of course, with any certainty, differentiate a random run of bad results from a rigged machine. And, if I were rigging a machine, I would do what was discussed on other threads -- namely under-royal the RNG because that would be virtually impossible to detect.

    However, having said that, if I were experiencing a run of, say, four or five times the loss rate expected on a machine excluding royals, I would be apt to leave the machine and/or casino. For example, a loss rate of $18 an hour or thereabouts can be expected on 25-cent machines when you exclude royals. if I were experiencing a loss rate, after significant play, of four or five times that, I would tend to suspect something was wrong.

    I compare this to the problems with online poker -- for years people argued that it wasn't fixed or orchestrated, even though loss rates in certain games on certain sites were standard deviations above normal. People argued that it was all variance. Well, after the fact, it turns out many games were rigged, and the only way people got caught was that insiders leaked info and the cheating was so grade-schoolish blatant that any idiot could review the leaked results and draw the conclusion the games were rigged.

    I have a real problem with Native American casinos because they have hired people who have been caught designing non-random scenarios. If you get severly under-royaled at Native American casinos, and continue to play there, I feel it's on you. Most of the cheating in online poker occurred under the auspices of the "Kahnawake Gaming Commission," which is, of course, a Native American entity.

  10. #10
    I didn't attack Rob based on his cold cycle/hot cycle stuff -- it could either be true, or it could be more layers to make his system even more proprietary, opaque, and therefore not open to analysis. I have no idea which. I have serious doubts, but I also hope he's on to something. On one hand, I tend to red flag something when someone claims they're "the expert" or are one of a very few who can do something. On the other hand, I know people for whom that is true, and doubting them is an error. I'm a "hot cycle/cold cycle agnostic." I do share much of his concern regarding Native American casinos.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    More of what I was hoping for is if you play 100 credits on bp and the machine shows signs of a cold cycle (just humor me, Alan)-and you leave for another machine and the situation repeats 3 more times on 3 more machines, that's 1/3 of your total bankroll. I would say get outta there.
    Or, you can do what I did a few weeks ago ... continue to play and hit a RF wiping out the losses and generating a big win.

    There is no betting strategy that will affect your expectation. This has been proven mathematically. Now, if you truly believe the games are not random (which would negate the proof) then I can only wonder why you play. If you believe the games are random, what you are doing is trying to find patterns in a random sequence of events. They don't exist. However, over short time periods you will see patterns. They don't persist, though, which is why any action you take based on those patterns will eventually fail.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Or, you can do what I did a few weeks ago ... continue to play and hit a RF wiping out the losses and generating a big win.

    There is no betting strategy that will affect your expectation. This has been proven mathematically. Now, if you truly believe the games are not random (which would negate the proof) then I can only wonder why you play. If you believe the games are random, what you are doing is trying to find patterns in a random sequence of events. They don't exist. However, over short time periods you will see patterns. They don't persist, though, which is why any action you take based on those patterns will eventually fail.
    Congrats on the Royal! I have stated that I do believe the games are programmed to simulate randomness.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    I have stated that I do believe the games are programmed to simulate randomness.
    Do you believe "programmed" randomness differs from non-programmed randomness in any meaningful way?

    I think most people understand that the RNG is a program. Keep in mind that since the RNG runs continuously and the numbers selected are dependent on the timing of the player hitting the deal/draw buttons, this actually adds a degree of true randomness to the process.

    Because of this the order in which cards are displayed turns out to be non-programmed and two different players would end of seeing a different sequence of cards on the same machine.

  14. #14
    I could go back a hundred times and show that when arci argues about why he can't just quit when he gets ahead, how he then gets a royal for his problem gambling efforts. He's so predictable it's corny.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    I could go back a hundred times and show that when arci argues about why he can't just quit when he gets ahead, how he then gets a royal for his problem gambling efforts. He's so predictable it's corny.
    I quit about 5 minutes after getting paid for that RF. And, I was ahead. So, once again we see the dufus is completely wrong. However, I quit because I had played the time I planned. Unlike the dufus I understand that my results are only based on my edge and the amount I play. There's no need to create silly strategies or develop worthless special plays. They are actually less valuable then carrying a rabbit's foot, rubbing the screen, putting your hand over the screen before hitting draw, etc. If a person thinks people doing those things are silly then maybe you should look in the mirror.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    I quit because I had played the time I planned.
    I am unfamiliar with this strategy of yours. Please explain this: playing for the time you had planned. What is the goal? Objective?

    Thanks.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I am unfamiliar with this strategy of yours. Please explain this: playing for the time you had planned. What is the goal? Objective?

    Thanks.
    There's several factors that come into play. First, I know about when I start to tire out and make more errors. I don't play any longer than that. Second, I play just enough to reach the highest tier level which increases my cashback. Third, I play a consistent time to maximize the freeplay I receive.

    Now, I could play more and make more money but I find too much play leads to less enjoyment, so I limit my overall play.

    As you can see my "strategy" is based on optimizing my financial gains at a level of play that I'm comfortable with.

  18. #18
    I believe the programmed randomness is more noticeable pattern-wise.
    Last edited by slingshot; 05-03-2012 at 04:39 PM. Reason: misspell

  19. #19
    An addicted gambler who frequents Indian casinos and still claims to have the edge over them, is your typical pathological liar.

    Manufacturing stories as arci does, it has never crossed his mind even after being directly told, that fantasy will never make up for family neglect. It is--and continues to be--a thorn in his side that he has always been exposed for A, B, & C above....and D below.

    Now we're going out to dinner and enjoy the life retirement was meant to provide

  20. #20
    Sling, during the past four weeks I've been testing stopping by Terribles here in Pahrump whenever I had to go out for whatever errands, putting in $200 in their 6-level 5c thru $2 machines with a win goal of twenty bucks or lose the $200. To date, I've played 32 sessions, I've won 30, lost 2, and am ahead $430. My largest win has come via quad 3's on $2 Aces Bonus poker.

    As you can see, arci's assertion that win goals are meaningless and how the inevitable & infrequent big losses will more than wipe out all those small winners, is just another of his denial driven by a lack of gaming knowledge.

    We're leaving for the summer next Thursday, noting that retirement couples who did not put habitual gambling ahead of healthy living in earlier years will reap the rewards of that respect. But I will continue to track these visits both before and after our departure. We expect to return in early Sept.

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