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Thread: Dan Druff's 2022 MLB Picks

  1. #1
    Two opening day dogs for you

    Pittsburgh (Brubaker) +159 at St. Louis (Wainwright)
    Wainwright pitched just 2 innings this spring, and has been pitching in MLB since 2005. JT Brubaker has some talent and a decent spring. He's actually the pitcher more likely to pitch well today.

    Cincinnati (Mahle) +162 at Atlanta (Fried)
    Mahle is, again, an underrated pitcher who struck out 210 last year. In general, I love getting a +162 price on him pitching. In his last spring start, Fried gave up 6 runs, and threw just 4 of 84 pitches for swing and miss strikes!
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  2. #2
    Split 'em for a profit. Easy win for Cincy, big loss for Pitt.

    Today:

    Look for the Angels to score their first win today after yesterday's disappointing loss.

    Reid Detmers is taking the mound for them, who struck out 11 and walked none in 5 2/3 innings of spring games (2 outings).

    Mediocre Jake Odorizzi pitched just 2 innings this spring. Yes, both Trout and Ohtani are playing.

    Angels -115 (Detmers) vs Houston (Odorizzi)
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  3. #3
    Angels are awful.

    Anyway... today...

    Minnesota -135 (Ober) vs. Seattle (M. Gonzales)

    Will Seattle win their 3rd straight game to start the year, while on the road?

    I don't think so. Bailey Ober isn't an ace by any means, but he's a flyball pitcher, and we're looking at 17mph winds during the game today, blowing in. That should help.
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  4. #4
    Let's go back to the Reds.

    Ian Anderson is a good pitcher, but on March 30, he gave up 6 runs in a spring start. Then, in his next start on April 4, he exited early with a blister on his toe.

    This will be his first start since then.

    Hunter Greene, the much anticipated Reds rookie, didn't exactly kill it in the spring either, but he did have an 11/3 K/BB ratio.

    A lot of these early baseball matchups are catching which pitchers have it together, and which are having issues.

    Cincinnati (Greene) +161 at Atlanta (I. Anderson)
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  5. #5
    Starting at 11:10am, but if you're around, you can fire.

    Carlos Hernandez of the Royals was awwwwwwwwwful in the spring, giving up 12 runs in 7 innings. Aaron Civale was solid, and only allowed 2 runs in his final 2 spring starts (7 innings).

    Take the Indians (Guardians) as the small favorite.

    Cleveland -110 (Civale) at KC (C. Hernandez)
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  6. #6
    A bit later...

    Speaking of bad pitching...

    Michael Wacha has been awful for the past few seasons, and didn't look good in the spring, either. Detroit's Matt Manning was hit and miss in the spring, but his velocity is down about 1.5 mph in his last start. This looks like an OVER.

    Boston (Wacha) at Detroit (Manning) - Over 9.5 -115
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  7. #7
    Split 'em... Cleveland won, the over didn't.

    Today...

    Trying for 3-0 with Cincy this year, and 2-0 with Mahle.

    Mahle struck out 7 Braves opening day in Atlanta to get the win. This is an underrated pitcher who struck out 210 last year, going 13-6 on a mediocre Reds team.

    Shane Bieber isn't the same guy he was in 2020. He's suffered greatly from the sticky stuff crackdown, and his shoulder may or may not be bothering him. Since the aforementioned crackdown, his spin rate is way down. More notably, his velocity in his first outing was down over 2mph from last year! Somehow he still had a decent outing last time, but 2022 doesn't bode well for him if he can't fix these issues.

    Cincinnati (Mahle) -101 vs. Cleveland



    Now a pick along the lines of "pitchers who shouldn't be in MLB anymore".

    Jose Quintana had a 6.43 ERA and 1.743 WHIP last year. He was obliterated in his first two spring starts, though he managed to "only" allow 2 runs in 4 innings in his last outing.

    He's starting for a bad Pirates team which will probably lose 100+ games.

    Drew Smyly, on the other hand, has actually been sharp in his 2 spring appearances, and his 4.48/1.374 line in 2021 was actually a big improvement over his disasterous 2019 campaign. I wouldn't count on him to deliver a lot of innings, but I'm expecting him to be better than Quintana.

    Cubs (Smyly) -114 at Pittsburgh (Quintana)
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  8. #8
    Split the last two picks, with Cubs winning and Cincy coming back down 4-0, but ultimately losing.

    Today:

    Two MLB under 8s

    Cleveland (Quantrill) vs. San Francisco (Desclafani) - Under 8 -110
    Kansas City (Bubic) vs. Detroit (Manning) - Under 8 -113
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  9. #9
    2-0 yesterday

    Today:
    Seattle (Brash) -108 vs Houston (Urquidy)
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  10. #10
    Won on the 17th.

    Last minute:

    Cleveland (E. Morgan) +165 at NY Yankees (Taillon)

    Taillon generated just 3 swing-and-miss strikes out of 69 pitches in his last start.
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  11. #11
    I'm sure you folks are aware, but 2022 MLB Unders are 120-73, a stunning 47 games above .500.

    That is not a misprint.

  12. #12
    Yeah, a lot of teams are having issues scoring runs. Batting averages are horrid thus far.

    Funny enough, I was considering two unders on Friday, but instead went with that stupid Cleveland +165 game. Oops.

    Today I'll also forego unders... for now.

    Oakland (Irvin) +101 vs. Texas (G. Richards)
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  13. #13
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I'm sure you folks are aware, but 2022 MLB Unders are 120-73, a stunning 47 games above .500.

    That is not a misprint.
    Thanks for the information.
    Hope you cleaned up on that so far.
    I'm willing to bet that those numbers will Recorrect themselves shortly.
    Is recorrect not a word??
    Why is spellchecking giving me the red underline for recorrect?
    re-correct?
    That works.

  14. #14
    Hmmm... sure were a lot of under winning bets in the MLB today!?
    Can this continue Red?

  15. #15
    Won that Oakland bet above.

    Anyway, the Pirates are better than expected thus far.

    Today they send up Dillon Peters, who has allowed just 1 hit and zero runs in 10 1/3 innings, all in relief. He is replacing Bryce Wilson, who hasn't been good this year, and is suddenly unavailable.

    The Brewers send up Aaron Ashby, who is talented and may be a great pitcher in the near future, but he has struggled in the early goings, holding a 1.765 WHIP.

    I like the dog line here. Both teams hit well yesterday, but the Brewers won 12-8.

    Pittsburgh +155 (Peters) vs. Milwaukee (Ashby)
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  16. #16
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Won that Oakland bet above.

    Anyway, the Pirates are better than expected thus far.

    Today they send up Dillon Peters, who has allowed just 1 hit and zero runs in 10 1/3 innings, all in relief. He is replacing Bryce Wilson, who hasn't been good this year, and is suddenly unavailable.

    The Brewers send up Aaron Ashby, who is talented and may be a great pitcher in the near future, but he has struggled in the early goings, holding a 1.765 WHIP.

    I like the dog line here. Both teams hit well yesterday, but the Brewers won 12-8.

    Pittsburgh +155 (Peters) vs. Milwaukee (Ashby)
    LOL... watching the Pirates this morning... First Pitch... Home Run Brewers!!
    Pirates still suck.
    Pirates suck since 1992.

  17. #17
    Yes Pirates still suck.

    Let's try this one.

    St Louis (D. Hudson) vs Arizona (Castellanos) - Under 7.5 -116
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  18. #18
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Yes Pirates still suck.

    Let's try this one.

    St Louis (D. Hudson) vs Arizona (Castellanos) - Under 7.5 -116
    Yeah and they had like 62 people in attendance for all their home games.
    Talk about Lame lol lol lol.
    Box Seats are probably 12 dollars.
    I need the Cardinals Run Line to win 2700 so ok... St. Louis 5 Arizona 0
    Of course I can't watch the game at home because stupid MLB TICKET and DISH NETWORK blacks out every stinking Californian Team.
    That's a lot of missed baseball that I miss for 140 dollars.
    Last edited by monet; 04-28-2022 at 04:41 PM.

  19. #19
    Lost 2 in a row. Let's try to hit 2 today.

    Seattle (Brash) -109 at Miami (E. Hernandez)

    Texas (G. Richards) +118 vs. Atlanta (I. Anderson)


    Marlins have two very good starters in Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara, but the team's offense still blows. You could do worse than auto-fading the other 3 pitchers in the rotation, at least for now. They're averaging just 3.83 runs per game on offense.
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  20. #20
    I was going well, but hit the wall. 4 losses in a row.

    Today is an under extravaganza:

    Angels (Sandoval) at White Sox (Cease) - Under 7.5 -125 (Under 7 +100 ok)
    Atlanta (Fried) at Mets (Bassitt) - Under 6.5 +100
    Oakland (Jeffries) vs Tampa (Rasmussen) - Under 6.5 +100

    Angels start in like 30 minutes, the rest are later today.
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