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Thread: Dan Druff's 2022 MLB Picks

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The Indians' Zach Plesac has looked awful lately….
    Dude…..they’re the guardians now.
    #bebetter…
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I will not acknowledge the Guardians.

    .
    I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed with you. SMH.
    Why don't you Shut The Fuck Up and contribute something useful to this gambling forum for a change instead of just trolling everyone?
    I can't believe Dan Druff allows you to post this shit in this thread.
    Your posts should of been deleted as they have nothing to do with handicapping the MLB.
    Everyone knows that a Dan Druff Thread is Sacred and Holy Ground not to be Desecrated.

    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by monet; 05-22-2022 at 06:03 PM.

  2. #42
    I’m sorry you lost your parlay bet yesterday Monet.

  3. #43
    Lost the two on the 22nd, both with several chances to win. Both lost by 1 run.

    Two games today.

    NY Mets (D. Peterson) +128 at San Francisco (Cobb)
    Giants looked pretty bad, getting swept by the Padres while at home, and have lost 4 straight. Alex Cobb has not been good this year, even if you take away his bombing last time out at Coors. David Peterson has been surprisingly good for the Mets, but they demoted him anyway on May 3. He's back today, and while he hasn't exactly torn up the minors in his 3 starts there, I like him better than Cobb here. Mets are at full strength minus McCann, Giants missing Belt and LaMonte Wade. Moderate 7-10 mph wind blowing out. Both pitchers have issues with the HR ball, but Cobb is worse with that.

    Cubs (Smyly) -124 at Cincinnati (V. Guitterez)
    Reds are actually 9-9 in last 18 (!!), but this one doesn't look good. Guitterez has been awful in every start, and has an ERA near 9. Smyly has been very reliable, giving 4-6 innings per start and allowing around 3 runs.
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  4. #44
    2-0 yesterday, both went exactly as I said.

    Will the Giants lose again? Maybe.

    I meant to bet this earlier but was busy.

    It just fell from +106 to +101, but I still like the Mets here. Chris Bassitt is the most underrated pitcher in baseball. He's been great since 2020, but gets little credit.

    He had one mediocre outing this season -- last time against the Cardinals, but he should bounce back here. Logan Webb has been disappointing thus far. Giants are scuffling.

    NY Mets (Bassitt) +101 at San Francisco (Webb)
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  5. #45
    Starting at 3:40 PT:

    Miami (Poteet) at Tampa (Rasmussen) - Under 7 -113


    Yesterday's Giants/Mets game was crazy. Mets down 8-2 after 6. They came up with 2 in the 7th, 7 in the 8th, and were up 11-8. Do I win? Nope. Joc hits his 3rd HR, to tie it 11-11. Mets get up 12-11 in the 9th. Do I win? Nope. Giants score 2 in the 9th to walk it off.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #46
    Last pick was not good. Poteet got bombed.

    Starting shortly:

    Springs versus Taillon. Feels like an under.

    Yankees (Taillon) at Tampa (Springs) - Under 7 -109

    Springs has had a tremendous season thus far, and is pitching deeper into games. Taillon has allowed more hits than usual (reason why no RHE bet here), but overall has been solid, and seems to be improving.

    Stanton and Donaldson out.
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  7. #47
    Won the under above.

    Last minute:

    Atlanta (Strider) at Arizona (Gallen) - Under 8.5 -113
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  8. #48
    Got lucky. Despite a 6-2 game in the bottom of the 5th, it stayed 6-2 the entire rest of the way, and I barely won.

    Today:

    Ready for a slugfest?

    Humberto Castellanos is not good, and even with 4 games against the Cubs and Marlins, his ERA sits at 5.22.

    Charlie Morton has a 5.28 ERA and 1.534 WHIP.

    Neither of these dudes seem to be improving.

    Let's bet on the first 5 innings -- which is probably the maximum either of these guys will last.


    Atlanta (Morton) at Arizona (H. Castellanos) - OVER 5 -120 FIRST 5 INNINGS
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  9. #49
    Won the over on Tuesday pretty easily.

    Today:

    Doogie Houser has struggled lately. He got bombed twice by Cincinnati, of all teams, then had two good starts, and got hit hard by St. Louis last time out.

    He battles Sean Manaea, who hasn't been as good as San Diego has hoped, but has only allowed 43 hits in 56 innings, so I think he will improve on his 4.03 ERA.

    One thing to watch out for: 7-9mph wind blowing out today in Milwaukee. Houser hasn't been a big home run guy, and indeed he's only allowed 3 HR in his 46 IP this year. Manaea has allowed 8.

    Still, I believe the Padres will shake off their sweep by the Cardinals and win this one today, and Manaea will have a fairly good game.

    San Diego (Manaea) -108 at Milwaukee (Houser)
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  10. #50
    Lost the SD pick in super brutal fashion, where Milwaukee scored 4 in the bottom of the 9th, in a 4-1 game. Taylor Rodgers who was money as closer all year just had an awful game.

    I also made the pick Kansas City (Bubic) -108 vs. Baltimore (Lyles) yesterday on my other site, which won.

    Literal last minute:

    Pittsburgh (R. Conteras) +190 at Atlanta (Strider)
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  11. #51
    Lost Pittsburgh. Doing badly on medium-big dogs this year.

    Today:

    Remember Mike Minor. Fade him.

    Merrill Kelly is one of the most predictable pitchers in baseball this year. Aside from a disasterous start on May 17th against the Dodgers (8 ER, 2 innings), he has allowed 3 ER or fewer in every start since April 20. Most of his starts see 3 runs allowed and 5-7 IP. Not the guy you want on the mound in a pitcher's duel, but a guy you're happy to have going for you if the opposing pitcher sucks ass.

    Well, today the opposing pitcher sucks ass. Mike Minor shouldn't be in MLB anymore, and probably won't be rather soon.

    Rather than worry about the bullpens and their follies, just go for a first-5 bet. High chance Kelly will pitch all 5 of those innings, and Minor will be knocked out already.

    Arizona (M. Kelly) -0.5 runs -105 vs. Cincinnati (Minor) FIRST 5 INNINGS
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  12. #52
    Ugh. What a beat. 4-1 Arizona in the 5th, and Drury hits a 3-run HR to tie it 4-4. That was the score after 5, to kill the bet. Awful.

    Today:

    Another bet on Ari/Cin.

    Tyler Mahle is starting to get right. Three straight strong starts. Zach Davies has had two straight good starts. They face each other tonight.

    Cincinnati (Mahle) at Arizona (Davies) - Under 9 -120
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  13. #53
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Ugh. What a beat. 4-1 Arizona in the 5th, and Drury hits a 3-run HR to tie it 4-4. That was the score after 5, to kill the bet. Awful.

    Today:

    Another bet on Ari/Cin.

    Tyler Mahle is starting to get right. Three straight strong starts. Zach Davies has had two straight good starts. They face each other tonight.

    Cincinnati (Mahle) at Arizona (Davies) - Under 9 -120
    I'd like to bet that Arizona scores 9 runs on their own tonight.

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Ugh. What a beat. 4-1 Arizona in the 5th, and Drury hits a 3-run HR to tie it 4-4. That was the score after 5, to kill the bet. Awful.

    Today:

    Another bet on Ari/Cin.

    Tyler Mahle is starting to get right. Three straight strong starts. Zach Davies has had two straight good starts. They face each other tonight.

    Cincinnati (Mahle) at Arizona (Davies) - Under 9 -120
    I'd like to bet that Arizona scores 9 runs on their own tonight.
    Game was 0-0 after 9. Amazingly I almost lost.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #55
    Wind blowing out in Cincy today.

    Hunter Greene has allowed 15 HR in 60 IP, and Eric Lauer has allowed 11 HR in 61 IP.

    Milwaukee (Lauer) at Cincinnati (Greene) - OVER 9.5 -115
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  16. #56
    Lost the over on Friday. 6 HR were hit, just like I predicted, yet only 9 runs scored. Pretty sad after I correctly saw what would happen.

    Anyway...

    I see a lot of sharps piled on St. Louis vs Milwaukee over, despite two of the better 2022 pitchers facing one another, in Burnes and Mikolas. The reasoning, presumably, is that Burnes has been hittable in 2 of his last 3 outings, and Mikolas threw a career 129 pitches six days ago, in attempt to get a no hitter. Note that the line also favors Burnes about -165 right now. I'm still passing on this because Burnes looked good last time out, and Mikolas has been surprising people all year, so he may not regress today as much as people think. Normally I would fire +155 on Mikolas against anyone, given how he's been pitching in 2022, but not after a 129 pitch outing.

    Instead I'll just take the lowly Pirates against the even lowlier Cubs. The rookie Cubs pitcher got smacked hard last time out, despite a good MLB debut previously.

    Pittsburgh (Brubaker) -110 vs. Cubs (Kilian)
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  17. #57
    Easily won Pitts bet.

    Some plays starting shortly:

    Detroit (B. Brieske) +172 at Boston (R. Hill)
    Hill seems to be finally showing his age, and Brieske has had 3 strong starts in a row, currently holding a 12.7 scoreless inning streak.

    More soon
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  18. #58
    Yankees (Cortes) at Tampa Bay (Beeks) - Under 7 -105

    Battle of two excellent pitchers.
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  19. #59
    wo very close ones yesterday.

    Lost under in final out.

    Today just one:

    Minnesota (Gray) vs Cleveland (McKenzie) - under 8 -105
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  20. #60
    Running bad both at MLB this week, but here's one I like:

    White Sox (Cueto) vs Baltimore (Kremer) - under 8.5 +100
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