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Thread: Dan Druff's 2022 MLB Picks

  1. #21
    Ugh. Lost 2 of three, with one easy win (Angels) and the other two losing by 0.5.

    Today:

    Here's two for today:

    Cleveland (Plesac) +119 vs. San Diego (Clevinger)
    Clevinger hasn't pitched in MLB since 2020, and is coming off TJ surgery and a knee sprain. Even in 2020, he only went 41 innings. Basically the guy last pitched reliably in MLB in 2019, and while he might recover and be okay, there's a lot of rust here. Rainout possible, so be aware of that.

    Pittsburgh (B. Wilson) at Detroit (Pineda) - Over 8.5 -105
    Wind blowing out. Rain possible, however. Both pitchers are homerun-prone.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #22
    Both games were rained out on Tuesday.

    Today at 12:10 PT:

    Colorado (A. Sanchez) at Colorado (Senzatela) - Under 11 -120
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Today at 12:10 PT:

    Colorado (A. Sanchez) at Colorado (Senzatela) - Under 11 -120
    And they say there are no sure things in gambling. Give me Colorado for everything I am worth.

  4. #24
    Dude... how are you not all over betting against the Reds???

  5. #25
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Dude... how are you not all over betting against the Reds???
    I have two picks for today:

    Milwaukee (Lauer) -110 at Atlanta (J. Chavez)
    Eric Lauer has had a great year thus far -- 1.93 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, and a 34-5 K/BB ratio. Atlanta is running out a bullpen game today, with 38-year-old Jesse Chavez taking the first 2-3 innings.

    Pittsburgh (Brubaker) -119 at Cincinnati (Overton)
    Connor Overton has looked good in the 2022 minors and in his single start this year in MLB, but let's face it... you're getting -119 against Cincinnati. Overton is also not likely to pitch long into the game, as even in the minors this year he was used as a starter-reliever hybrid.


    Hopefully this breaks my slump.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #26
    Milwaukee bet won, Pittsburgh rained out.

    First baseball RHE bet of the year:

    Milwaukee (Burnes) at Atlanta (Fried) - Under 23 R+H+E -110

    Fried has a 3.00 ERA and 7.5 H/9 (hits allowed per 9 innings)
    Burnes has a 1.93 ERA and a 4.75 H/9 (!!)

    Fried has only allowed 3 runs and 10 hits over his past 19 innings, spanning 3 starts.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #27
    Won that RHE above.

    I placed one on my other site but forgot to post here yesterday, which was St. Louis/SF Over 25 RHE -120, which lost, thanks to a quiet final few innings.

    Here's a pick for all you ploppies out there:

    Milwaukee (Woodruff) -1.5 -105 at Cincinnati (L. Castillo)

    Luis Castillo is coming off a long injury and hasn't pitched in MLB in 2022. Brandon Woodruff isn't off to his usual strong start, but he had 12 K last time out.

    The Reds are the Reds.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #28
    The Indians' Zach Plesac has looked awful lately, and his velocity is down. White Sox's Kopech was an elite prospect at one point, and has great numbers thus far, but last time out wasn't so hot (he squeaked out of trouble against the lousy Cubs), and he has a 23/11 K/BB ratio. He's also never gone more than 5 IP this season.

    I see a bombing of Plesac, and honestly even if Kopech isn't great, they just gotta be up after 5 for the below bet to win.

    White Sox (Kopech) -0.5 -125 vs. Cleveland (Plesac) - 1ST 5 INNINGS
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #29
    Won White Sox bet, lost Milwaukee outright.

    First 4-pick day.

    Mets (Carrasco) -0.5 -115 at Washington (Corbin) - FIRST 5 INNINGS
    Corbin is pretty much a lock to have a bad game every time he goes out. Carrasco has been brilliant, aside from one horrendous start against the Cardinals. Near even money for the (better) Mets to be ahead after 5 is a great buy here.

    Toronto (Kikuchi) at Yankees (Severino) - Over 7.5 +100
    Kikuchi shut down the Yankees last time out, but it was his only good start of the year, and he has a 20/14 K/BB ratio, and in fact had down velocity in that one good game! Note that the wind is blowing in at 10mph, thus depressing this total, but we are looking at two pitchers with not-so-good WHIPs, to where that matters less.

    Cleveland (Quantrill) at White Sox - Over 8 -115

    Baltimore (Bradish) at St. Louis (Naughton) - Over 8.5 -105 (over 8 -120 ok)
    Wind blowing out for this one. St. Louis doing a bullpen game.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #30
    Not a good day yesterday, going 1-3. Mets got ahead in the 6th, one inning too late. St. Louis/Baltimore got stuck on 7 runs, and just missed scoring more than 1 in the 9th. Yankees over was the only one that hit.

    Today:
    This one is starting soon.

    Chad Kuhl is a different pitcher since leaving Pittsburgh. He's had 5 great starts, including two at home in Denver, one of which was against the Phillies. Last game, the average exit velocity off opposing bats was 82mph! Wow!

    Alex Cobb of the Giants has not been all that good since 2016, and this year he's been inconsistent thus far.

    I'll take the big dog money here.

    Colorado (Kuhl) +193 at San Francisco (Cobb)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #31
    Kuhl finally had a bad game. Sad!

    Today:

    Two bets today, both on the same game.

    Tama Bay (Rasmussen) +111 vs. Toronto (Gausman)
    Tampa/Toronto - Under 23 R+H+E -110

    Looking for a low-scoring, low-hit Tampa victory.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #32
    2-0 yesterday. The RHE was a squeaker -- finished with 22!

    Today:

    I can't believe I'm betting Arizona -1.5, but yeah, I'm betting Arizona -1.5

    Zac Gallen has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far. This saddens me because I had him in a keeper fantasy league, but let him go after his bad 2021.

    Anyway, he's been killing it, and Arizona has been a pleasant surprise thus far, winning 8 of 10 and holding an 18-15 record.

    The 11-20 Cubs are trash, but the bigger story today is Kyle Hendricks. He threw 116 pitches in a great game against the Padres last time out, going 8 2/3, just missing a CG shutout. So why bet against him? Hendricks isn't used to throwing 116 pitches these days. There will be a fatigue factor. It was just 5 days ago when he threw those pitches, so he didn't even get an off-day to give him an extra day of rest. This game should be a fall back to earth, in a season where he otherwise hasn't been good.

    Beware that home -1.5 games are a big risk, as these wins are a lot more often the 1-run variety, due to both the walkoff potential and the lack of 9th inning batting when ahead. However, I still think this will be a 2+ run victory for the D-backs, and you get +130 on it, to boot.

    Arizona (Gallen) -1.5 +130 vs. Cubs (Hendricks)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #33
    Lost that Arizona bet outright.

    Here's some picks for the day:

    Houston (Odorizzi) at Boston (Whitlock) - Over 9 -125
    Baltimore (Bradish) vs. Yankees (Severino) - Under 8 -120
    Baltimore +166 at Yankees
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #34
    Lost Yankees bet, other two tied.

    Just about to start. Cobb vs Kuhl part deux.

    Colorado (Kuhl) +143 vs San Francisco (Cobb)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #35
    FAIL. Kuhl is being Kuhl again. Not backing him anymore.

    Well time to degen one back to get even.

    Oakland (Kaprielian) -106 vs. Minnesota (Bundy)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #36
    Won the Oakland pick, so 1-1 on Tuesday.

    Two bets today.

    Miami (T. Rogers) +107 vs. Atlanta (Morton)
    Texas (M. Perez) +153 at Houston (C. Javier)

    Note that Perez has had a great year thus far, and Javier is a bullpen guy for the most part, who got bombed last time out.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The Indians' Zach Plesac has looked awful lately….
    Dude…..they’re the guardians now.
    #bebetter…

  18. #38
    I will not acknowledge the Guardians.

    Split yesterday but turned a profit, with Texas winning. Miami had two big chances to tie, blew both.

    Last minute:

    Atlanta (Wright) at Miami (E. Hernandez) - Over 8 -110

    Hernandez has just been reliably lousy all year. Wright, after a good early season, has been looking worse past 3 starts.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #39
    Another last minute one. I've been back and forth on this one all day.

    Pittsburgh (Quintana) +122 vs St. Louis (M. Liberatore)

    It's hard to believe that Jose Quintana is in MLB at all, let alone having a good year. He was awful in 2021, and I was surprised anyone was interested in him. But sure enough.. he's having a great season, and is coming off two dominant appearances. One was against the Reds (so what), but the other was against the Dodgers. His ERA is near 2. Matt Liberatore is a great prospect, but he's been hit-and-miss in the minors (3.83 ERA this year, well over 4 last year), and I think the butterflies might get him tonight in his first Major League start.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I will not acknowledge the Guardians.

    .
    I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed with you. SMH.

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