Mitch Keller has quietly been really solid lately.
Pittsburgh (Keller) -112 vs Cubs (Wesneski)
Mitch Keller has quietly been really solid lately.
Pittsburgh (Keller) -112 vs Cubs (Wesneski)
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Lost the Pittsburgh pick.
Today:
Jose Urquidy has had two bad starts in a row -- and against bad teams. He's pitched 157 innings this year. His previous high was 107. Fatigue?
Let's fade him.
Baltimore (Kremer) +122 vs. Houston (Urquidy)
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Won yesterday.
Let's do a late baseball game.
St. Louis probably going to have a scoring hangover after the 11-0 drubbing yesterday of the Dodgers.
St. Louis (Montgomery) at Los Angeles (Kershaw) - Under 7.5 -115
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Lost that under by 0.5.
Today:
Cincinnati (Lodolo) +135 vs Milwaukee (Peralta)
Frankie Peralta hasn't pitched for most of the month, and will be on a pitch count. Lodolo has struck out 38 in his past 4 games combined (25.1 innings).
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Won the Cincy pick above.
Two bets:
One for the adventurous, one for the grinder.
The adventurous:
Miami (P. Lopez) +165 at Mets (Carrasco) - First 5 innings
The grinder:
Detroit (Wentz) -110 vs Kansas City (Greinke)
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Won them both, BUT... I had the heartbreak of accidentally leaving "First 5" clicked when I bet the Detroit game, so I lost that one in real life. Super frustrating. But it counts as 2-0 here.
Two picks tonight:
Marco Gonzalez has just 94 K in his 171 innings pitched, and has given up 15 hits in his last 2 starts combined (11.1 innings). While I see opponent Jon Gray as overrated, he has given up 2 runs or fewer in 5 of his 7 last starts, and 1 or fewer in 4 of his last 7.
Dodgers/Padres have a bullpen game on both sides. The Dodgers are fielding a pretty strong lineup despite these games being meaningless, other than extending their franchise win record. The Padres, however, also don't have much to play for. They're pretty much locked into the #2 wildcard spot, ahead of both the Phillies and Brewers by 3 games, with just 7 to play. BOTH of these teams would have to catch the Padres for them to lose their playoff spot, and they will be on the road in their first round series no matter what.
Texas (Jon Gray) +112 at Seattle (Marco Gonzalez)
Dodgers +120 -1.5 at Padres (NOTE: this is an "action" bet, as the starting pitchers don't matter, since they will only go 1-2 innings)
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1-1, winning Dodgers, losing Texas in extras
Cincinnati (Ashcraft) +146 at Cubs (Sampson)
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Well this isn't going well. I don't know why I thought Ashcraft would have a good game. He has some talent, but he just hasn't been that good.
Anyway, most of you didn't get to bet it because I posted it so last minute.
Here's two unders you will have time to bet:
Yankees (German) vs. Baltimore (Voth) - Under 7.5 -105 (8 -125 ok)
Washington (Sanchez) vs. Philadelphia (Syndergaard) - Under 8.5 -125 (Game 2 of Doubleheader)
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Won the Yankees under, lost the Reds, Philly under didn't play.
One pick today
Ortiz has been surprising everyone in Pittsburgh. Montgomery was great for the Cardinals at first, but has seemingly collapsed.
I'll take the far hotter hand.
Pittsburgh (L. Ortiz) +185 at St. Louis (Montgomery) - first 5 innings
The 185 on BOL right now might be a mistake, so grab it quickly. I see 170 elsewhere (which I would still take)
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Pittsburgh game not going well. Ortiz gave up 6 runs in the 1st, didn't make it out.
Okay, I'm going to fire on the late game.
Here have been Dylan Cease's last 8 games:
8 IP, 2 ER
9 IP. 0 ER
6 IP. 0 ER
5 IP, 3 ER
6 IP, 1 ER
6 IP, 0 ER
Granted, this was against Arizona, Minnesota, Oakland, Colorado (in Chicago), Cleveland, and Detroit -- none being offensive powerhouses, but still. The guy has a 2.06 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 31 starts this year.
Clevinger is inconsistent, and he's had bad outings in 3 of his past 4 starts.
I'll take the evenish money on the White Sox here.
White Sox (Cease) -101 at San Diego (Clevinger)
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0-2, neither were close.
Today:
Against my better judgment, I will re-fire on the Pirates against the Cardinals.
Roansy Contreras has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 6 of his past 7 starts -- the only exception being against the Yankees, where he still struck out 10.
Adam Wainwright, all 41 years of him, has allowed 4 ER in 4 of his past 5 starts, including against 2 bad teams. I will take the nice plus money on this one. However, I'll go first-5, because I don't expect the punchless Pittsburgh offense to outplay St. Louis in the later innings, once Contreras and Wainwright are gone.
Pittsburgh (R. Contreras) +160 at St. Louis (Wainwright) -- FIRST 5 INNINGS
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Won the Pittsburgh one... barely.
Today:
Let's finish the regular season in MLB with a bang... or perhaps a thud.
Third-to-last day picks:
Baltimore (Kremer) +108 vs Toronto (Berrios)
Philadelphia (Nola) +105 at Houston (McCullers)
Oakland (A. Martinez) +150 vs Angeles (P. Sandoval)
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Won 2/3 yesterday, only losing Baltimore.
Today:
13 mph wind blowing directly in
Boston (Eovaldi) vs Tampa (Springs) - under 7.5 -120
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Rain saved what was almost a certain loss in the 5th. No action.
One pick on final regular season day:
NL East champ Braves get a break after this bullpen game where they are dogs against this awful Miami sometimes starter.
Atlanta +108 (J. Stephens) at Miami (E. Hernandez)
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I didn't do any record posting, so for completeness, here we are...
4-7: 1-1, +0.62
4-8: 0-1, -1.00
4-10: 2-0, +2.35
4-11: 1-1, -0.09
4-12: 1-1, -0.13
4-16: 2-0, +1.79
4-17: 1-0, +0.93
4-22: 0-1, -1.00
4-24: 1-0, +1.01
4-27: 0-1, -1.00
4-28: 0-1, -1.00
4-29: 0-2, -2.00
TOTAL APRIL: 9-9, +0.48 units
5-2: 1-2, -1.20
5-3: BOTH RAINED OUT
5-5: 0-1, -1.00
5-6: 1-0, +0.91 (one rained out)
5-7: 1-0, +0.91
5-9: 1-1, -0.20
5-10: 1-3, -2.00
5-11: 0-1, -1.00
5-13: 2-0, +2.02
5-14: 0-1, -1.00
5-16: 0-1-2, -1.00
5-17: 1-1, -0.06
5-20: 1-1, +0.53
5-21: 0-2, -2.00
5-23: 2-0, +2.09
5-24: 0-1, -1.00
5-25: 0-1, -1.00
5:27: 1-0, +0.92
5-30: 1-0, +0.88
5-31: 1-0, +0.83
TOTAL MAY: 14-16-2, -2.37 units
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6-2: 0-1, -1.00
6-10: 0-1, -1.00
6-13: 0-1, -1.00
6-14: 1-0, +0.83
6-17: 0-1, -1.00
6-20: 1-0, +0.91
6-21: 0-2, -2.00
6-22: 0-1, -1.00
6-23: 1-0, +1.00
6-24: 0-1, -1.00
TOTAL JUNE: 3-8, -5.26 units
7-1: 1-0, +1.54
7-5: 1-0, +0.70
7-6: 0-1, -1.00
7-14: 0-1, -1.00
7-22: 0-1, -1.00
TOTAL JULY: 2-3, -0.76 units
As you can see, it was a not-so-good first 4 months of the season, as I went 28-36-2, -7.91 units
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I took 2 weeks off and came back refreshed with some tweaks to my 2022 strategy. I was rewarded with an 8-0, +8.94 unit run to get me out of the hole, occurring between August 5 and August 16.
Unfortunately, I went just 4-9 the rest of the way, but the month was still +6.82 units thanks to several dog wins. This put me just a hair under even, going into September. The final third of August saw a lot of heartbreaking extra innings losses, in what otherwise could have been a monster month.
8-5: 1-0, +1.20
8-6: 2-0, +2.05
8-8: 1-0, +1.15
8-10: 1-0, +1.32
8-13: 1-0, +0.88
8-15: 1-0, +1.39
8-16: 1-0, +0.95
8-18: 1-1, +0.38
8-19: 1-1, -0.09
8-20: 1-0, +1.70
8-22: 0-1, -1.00
8-23: 1-2, -0.81
8-24: 0-1, -1.00
8-25: 0-1, -1.00
8-26: 0-1, -1.00
8-29: 0-1, -1.00
8-31: 1-0, +1.70
TOTAL AUGUST: 13-9, +6.82 units
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As I came down the stretch, I lost 3 in light action in the first third of September, putting me again down over 3 units, but I did well for the rest of the month. I made a few picks in regular season October, essentially breaking even there, and didn't bet the playoffs.
9-3: 0-2, -2.00
9-9: 0-1, -1.00
9-11: 2-1, +0.86
9-12: 0-1, -1.00
9-13: 2-1, +1.70
9-14: 1-0, +0.83
9-16: 2-0, +2.45
9-17: 1-1, +0.05
9-18: 0-1, -1.00
9-19: 0-1, -1.00
9-21: 1-0, +1.12
9-22: 0-1, -1.00
9-23: 1-0, +1.22
9-24: 0-1, -1.00
9-25: 1-0, +1.35
9-27: 2-0, +2.56
9-29: 1-1, +0.20
9-30: 1-1, -0.05 (one rainout)
TOTAL SEPTEMBER: 15-13, +4.29 units
10-1: 0-2, -2.00
10-2: 1-0, +1.60
10-3: 2-1, +1.55
10-4: RAINED OUT IN 5TH TO CANCEL GAME
10-5: 0-1, -1.00
TOTAL OCTOBER: 3-4, +0.15
TOTAL APRIL THROUGH JULY: 28-36-2, -7.91 units
TOTAL AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER: 31-26, +11.26 units
GRAND TOTAL: 59-62-2, +3.35 units
So I came out ahead, though not by a whole lot, thanks to a number of dogs hitting in the final two-plus months. I'll look to improve on this in 2023.
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