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Thread: Short term vs long term and quitting while ahead (continued)

  1. #181
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Yeah but if he goes to the casino, wins a few hundred bucks, and then quits for the day whats wrong with that though?
    There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. However if he goes to the casino every day, or several times a week, or however often he goes, and employs these stop limits, in each direction, winning and losing, don't tell us that is a winning strategy that overcomes anything. It isn't.
    Yeah but he’s stated he only cares about winning today. He doesn’t care if he wins tomorrow or in the long term. He would rather win today & he knows that an AP might lose today after being up earlier in the day.

    So given what he wants to achieve personally isn’t the better strategy (not for an AP but just for him) to quit as soon as he is up for the day?
    The secret to success is quitting while youíre ahead or quitting while youíre behind, especially at some arbitrary preselected number.

  2. #182
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Box I'm no human punching bag this time. I'm punching holes right through your cellophane body armor.

    You see... the majority of the world doesnt believe in the supernatural that's being vomited here.

    I'm trying to understand if Alan is employing simple and inappropriate straw man arguments here.

    Like if someone asks me if DarkOz is doing what he says, I kind of roll my eyes. Or if somebody says their team made $25 million. I say, great, have at it. And then Alan places those things front and center as Exhibits A and B as to why most of the "advantage play" presented here doesn't and can't work. Those examples are at WoV, where a lot of nonsense is tolerated and even celebrated.

    Saying advantage play doesn't work because DarkOz and MDawg make shit up is silly. It's like saying because someone else claims to run a four minute mile, you're saying that I can't run a six minute mile.

    Almost all of the mickey crimm angles make sense. Most of the stuff presented here makes sense. If you consider sports betting a form of AP, and I suspect it will increasingly be considered as such with legalization and bonuses and comps now attached to it, there's no question games of opinion can be beaten. It's hard and it takes a lot of work and it takes expertise, but it can be done.

    Rejection of individual advantage players is one thing. Rejection of advantage play principles is another.

    You'll notice that Alan didn't challenge mickey crimm's specifics. Or my specifics (he'd get another package). That's because mickey could take him on tour for a week and debunk anti-advantage play arguments in real time.

    I guess I don't get the whole idea of picking easy targets and using those to debunk advantage play in general. That is classic straw man argumentation.

  3. #183
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Redietz you're a fine writer too. You stuff a lot of words into your posts. You also stuff a lot of advertisements and clippings into packages.

    You're a stuffer.

    Now read this. It has a term I never saw before.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/goodcas...ure-ahead/amp/

    I wanted to point out the rather large mathematical flaw in this article. It's the line in the summary after the first bullet point:

    "Beating the house in the long run is impossible, so it is wise to enjoy it in the short run."

    Now this line is just flat out incorrect. I understand that the piece is written for civilians and is just making a general point, but it's a bad line because it says there have been no Thorpes or Billy Walters. So it's wrong.

  4. #184
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I just found the DO claim of $175 a week at a cost of $25.
    Here is DO's claim...

    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...-mdawg-ii/113/

    "I have obtained freeplay on players cards $150 a day seven days a week and it cost me $25 per card total!"

    So that's $1050 per week for a $25 loss...not $25 coin-in or a $25 theo loss.

    He doesn't say how many cards, and it's unclear what he means by "cost me $25 per card total."

    He could mean an average cost of $25 per card for several cards.

    Hitting a big jackpot on one card while running the coin-in would lower the average cost per card, and total cost.

  5. #185
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Box I'm no human punching bag this time. I'm punching holes right through your cellophane body armor.

    You see... the majority of the world doesnt believe in the supernatural that's being vomited here.

    I'm trying to understand if Alan is employing simple and inappropriate straw man arguments here.

    Like if someone asks me if DarkOz is doing what he says, I kind of roll my eyes. Or if somebody says their team made $25 million. I say, great, have at it. And then Alan places those things front and center as Exhibits A and B as to why most of the "advantage play" presented here doesn't and can't work. Those examples are at WoV, where a lot of nonsense is tolerated and even celebrated.

    Saying advantage play doesn't work because DarkOz and MDawg make shit up is silly. It's like saying because someone else claims to run a four minute mile, you're saying that I can't run a six minute mile.

    Almost all of the mickey crimm angles make sense. Most of the stuff presented here makes sense. If you consider sports betting a form of AP, and I suspect it will increasingly be considered as such with legalization and bonuses and comps now attached to it, there's no question games of opinion can be beaten. It's hard and it takes a lot of work and it takes expertise, but it can be done.

    Rejection of individual advantage players is one thing. Rejection of advantage play principles is another.

    You'll notice that Alan didn't challenge mickey crimm's specifics. Or my specifics (he'd get another package). That's because mickey could take him on tour for a week and debunk anti-advantage play arguments in real time.

    I guess I don't get the whole idea of picking easy targets and using those to debunk advantage play in general. That is classic straw man argumentation.
    Now we've got redietz trying to inch his way into attempting to convince himself....and others....that he's an AP. I suspect the lack of attention he received from sending Alan that silly "PR Pkg." didn't cut it.

    And here's a flash on the recent sports betting angle. Last Oct. those of us in Az. we're absolutely inundated with all the online sports books and their sign-on bonuses, match plays and free bets. Some went into the low four figures (and no, I'm not going to underhandedly imply that I'm a high-volume bettor by claiming I could "negotiate" larger-than-advertised bonuses.)

    I signed on to every available offer with accounts for myself and my wife, the effort was extraordinarily successful, and as soon as I maxed out the bonus plays I immediately quit and never went back for more bets. I get hammered with emails begging us to make more bets--some even with smaller bonuses attached. But I only went into it for the short-term/very easy money profit. More specifically, I'm what one would call a "sports betting AP" because my long-run is officially over.

    It's not that complicated if even I can do it.

  6. #186
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Yeah but if he goes to the casino, wins a few hundred bucks, and then quits for the day whats wrong with that though?
    He thinks he's "ahead" when in reality he's still DOWN hundreds of thousands of dollars.

  7. #187
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    And by the way Boz, about a week ago I told everything about my son's problems and how he blamed me and I took the blame as a father would.

    But it's all passed for him thanks in part to a huge free SBA Covid loan, a Chapter 7, and a deal with the IRS. He drives two Teslas now, kept his house, has a new business. And I forgave him for blaming his problems on me. That's what fathers do who love their kids.
    My dad would have kicked my ass for badmouthing him.
    Maxpen.Is.The.Forum.Bitch

  8. #188
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Box I'm no human punching bag this time. I'm punching holes right through your cellophane body armor.

    You see... the majority of the world doesnt believe in the supernatural that's being vomited here.

    I'm trying to understand if Alan is employing simple and inappropriate straw man arguments here.

    Like if someone asks me if DarkOz is doing what he says, I kind of roll my eyes. Or if somebody says their team made $25 million. I say, great, have at it. And then Alan places those things front and center as Exhibits A and B as to why most of the "advantage play" presented here doesn't and can't work. Those examples are at WoV, where a lot of nonsense is tolerated and even celebrated.

    Saying advantage play doesn't work because DarkOz and MDawg make shit up is silly. It's like saying because someone else claims to run a four minute mile, you're saying that I can't run a six minute mile.

    Almost all of the mickey crimm angles make sense. Most of the stuff presented here makes sense. If you consider sports betting a form of AP, and I suspect it will increasingly be considered as such with legalization and bonuses and comps now attached to it, there's no question games of opinion can be beaten. It's hard and it takes a lot of work and it takes expertise, but it can be done.

    Rejection of individual advantage players is one thing. Rejection of advantage play principles is another.

    You'll notice that Alan didn't challenge mickey crimm's specifics. Or my specifics (he'd get another package). That's because mickey could take him on tour for a week and debunk anti-advantage play arguments in real time.

    I guess I don't get the whole idea of picking easy targets and using those to debunk advantage play in general. That is classic straw man argumentation.
    Now we've got redietz trying to inch his way into attempting to convince himself....and others....that he's an AP. I suspect the lack of attention he received from sending Alan that silly "PR Pkg." didn't cut it.

    And here's a flash on the recent sports betting angle. Last Oct. those of us in Az. we're absolutely inundated with all the online sports books and their sign-on bonuses, match plays and free bets. Some went into the low four figures (and no, I'm not going to underhandedly imply that I'm a high-volume bettor by claiming I could "negotiate" larger-than-advertised bonuses.)

    I signed on to every available offer with accounts for myself and my wife, the effort was extraordinarily successful, and as soon as I maxed out the bonus plays I immediately quit and never went back for more bets. I get hammered with emails begging us to make more bets--some even with smaller bonuses attached. But I only went into it for the short-term/very easy money profit. More specifically, I'm what one would call a "sports betting AP" because my long-run is officially over.

    It's not that complicated if even I can do it.
    I have a friend that holed up in Colorado last football season because of these type of plays available in the sportbooks. I didn't question him on the specifics but he's an experienced sportsbettor that does occasional interviews on VSIN. If someone like him holed up in Colorado above all other locations then it must have been good.
    Maxpen.Is.The.Forum.Bitch

  9. #189
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Box I'm no human punching bag this time. I'm punching holes right through your cellophane body armor.

    You see... the majority of the world doesnt believe in the supernatural that's being vomited here.

    I'm trying to understand if Alan is employing simple and inappropriate straw man arguments here.

    Like if someone asks me if DarkOz is doing what he says, I kind of roll my eyes. Or if somebody says their team made $25 million. I say, great, have at it. And then Alan places those things front and center as Exhibits A and B as to why most of the "advantage play" presented here doesn't and can't work. Those examples are at WoV, where a lot of nonsense is tolerated and even celebrated.

    Saying advantage play doesn't work because DarkOz and MDawg make shit up is silly. It's like saying because someone else claims to run a four minute mile, you're saying that I can't run a six minute mile.

    Almost all of the mickey crimm angles make sense. Most of the stuff presented here makes sense. If you consider sports betting a form of AP, and I suspect it will increasingly be considered as such with legalization and bonuses and comps now attached to it, there's no question games of opinion can be beaten. It's hard and it takes a lot of work and it takes expertise, but it can be done.

    Rejection of individual advantage players is one thing. Rejection of advantage play principles is another.

    You'll notice that Alan didn't challenge mickey crimm's specifics. Or my specifics (he'd get another package). That's because mickey could take him on tour for a week and debunk anti-advantage play arguments in real time.

    I guess I don't get the whole idea of picking easy targets and using those to debunk advantage play in general. That is classic straw man argumentation.
    I guess you are not familiar with the journalistic principle of nullification.

    If there is a group of people, APs for example that claim to make money by playing when the odds are in their favor, but you hear from some other random person somewhere else on the internet claims that seem unreasonable, You can then tie that random person into the main group to “nullify” any and all claims as nonsense no matter how reasonable or logical they seem to be.

    You can also misrepresent other person claims to strengthen your argument IE $25 coin in vs. $25 cost.
    The secret to success is quitting while youíre ahead or quitting while youíre behind, especially at some arbitrary preselected number.

  10. #190
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    And by the way Boz, about a week ago I told everything about my son's problems and how he blamed me and I took the blame as a father would.

    But it's all passed for him thanks in part to a huge free SBA Covid loan, a Chapter 7, and a deal with the IRS. He drives two Teslas now, kept his house, has a new business. And I forgave him for blaming his problems on me. That's what fathers do who love their kids.
    Welp, I've learned my lesson.
    Not gonna bad mouth Alan or Redietz anymore.
    And I'm pretty sure Alan did see 18 yo's in a row.
    Just a shame that he never bet on it while it was happening.
    Personally, after a few hits I would of been up to table limit on the YO.

  11. #191
    No you wouldn't have bet on the yo. It's a lousy crazy crapper bet.

    After 5 yos you would have been saying "come on, give us a good number." And after 10 yos you would have been saying "make the point shooter."

    Armchair players say they would have parlayed the yo. LOL

    There were three of us at that table. No one bet the yo including the shooter.

    Crazy crappers see a yo and bet a yo.

    Heck. Most players at a craps table just make the pass and bet double odds.

    The forum are filled with big talkers who say what they would have done.
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  12. #192
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    No you wouldn't have bet on the yo. It's a lousy crazy crapper bet.

    After 5 yos you would have been saying "come on, give us a good number." And after 10 yos you would have been saying "make the point shooter."

    Armchair players say they would have parlayed the yo. LOL

    There were three of us at that table. No one bet the yo including the shooter.

    Crazy crappers see a yo and bet a yo.

    Heck. Most players at a craps table just make the pass and bet double odds.

    The forum are filled with big talkers who say what they would have done.
    If you say so but you don't understand how I gamble or bet on those types of games.
    I would think my parlay bets would prove to you otherwise but I guess not.
    Thanks for the breakdown.
    Appreciated.

  13. #193
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Weird lies about seeing 18yos
    If a billion people played at their own table 24/7 for an entire year, it's still 100 million to one against one of them seeing 18 straight yos just once.

    But sure, making a net profit via exploiting mail is impossible.

  14. #194
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    No you wouldn't have bet on the yo. It's a lousy crazy crapper bet.

    After 5 yos you would have been saying "come on, give us a good number." And after 10 yos you would have been saying "make the point shooter."

    Armchair players say they would have parlayed the yo. LOL

    There were three of us at that table. No one bet the yo including the shooter.

    Crazy crappers see a yo and bet a yo.

    Heck. Most players at a craps table just make the pass and bet double odds.

    The forum are filled with big talkers who say what they would have done.
    If you say so but you don't understand how I gamble or bet on those types of games.
    I would think my parlay bets would prove to you otherwise but I guess not.
    Thanks for the breakdown.
    Appreciated.
    When was the last time you played craps for at least 4 hours?

    In the course of 4 hours I am pretty sure you'll see some horn number -- it could be 11, 12, 2 or 3 -- thrown three times in a row.

    You might see three hardways thrown in a row...

    But I doubt you'll ever see a player parlay it. Those things are talked about and make legends. But actually happen?

    Yet people talk as if they happen ten times a day.

    The big laugh is when casinos offer 10X odds... but the typical player takes 2X odds.

    Big talk.
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  15. #195
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    When was the last time you played craps for at least 4 hours?

    In the course of 4 hours I am pretty sure you'll see some horn number -- it could be 11, 12, 2 or 3 -- thrown three times in a row.

    You might see three hardways thrown in a row...

    But I doubt you'll ever see a player parlay it. Those things are talked about and make legends. But actually happen?

    Yet people talk as if they happen ten times a day.

    The big laugh is when casinos offer 10X odds... but the typical player takes 2X odds.

    Big talk.
    I stand corrected.
    Sorry.

  16. #196
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    When was the last time you played craps for at least 4 hours?

    In the course of 4 hours I am pretty sure you'll see some horn number -- it could be 11, 12, 2 or 3 -- thrown three times in a row.

    You might see three hardways thrown in a row...

    But I doubt you'll ever see a player parlay it. Those things are talked about and make legends. But actually happen?

    Yet people talk as if they happen ten times a day.

    The big laugh is when casinos offer 10X odds... but the typical player takes 2X odds.

    Big talk.
    I stand corrected.
    Sorry.
    You sound like a good guy. You're the kind of guy I'd like to meet up with.
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  17. #197
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Yeah but if he goes to the casino, wins a few hundred bucks, and then quits for the day whats wrong with that though?
    He thinks he's "ahead" when in reality he's still DOWN hundreds of thousands of dollars.
    He says he doesnít care about the long term or math though.

    He only cares if he wins today.

    Maybe itís a Zen thing. The only instant that really matters is the present, the past and future are an illusion.
    The secret to success is quitting while youíre ahead or quitting while youíre behind, especially at some arbitrary preselected number.

  18. #198
    Originally Posted by jdaewoo View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Weird lies about seeing 18yos
    If a billion people played at their own table 24/7 for an entire year, it's still 100 million to one against one of them seeing 18 straight yos just once.

    But sure, making a net profit via exploiting mail is impossible.
    It was big in the past. Casinos got hip they were being worked and cut back on freeplay. Over the years the casinos have been hammered by every angle. They learn and make corrections.
    Maxpen.Is.The.Forum.Bitch

  19. #199
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Yeah but if he goes to the casino, wins a few hundred bucks, and then quits for the day whats wrong with that though?
    He thinks he's "ahead" when in reality he's still DOWN hundreds of thousands of dollars.
    He says he doesnít care about the long term or math though.

    He only cares if he wins today.

    Maybe itís a Zen thing. The only instant that really matters is the present, the past and future are an illusion.
    There is no one alive who doesn't care if they win or lose each time they walk into a casino. If they didn't care, they'd just throw away X amount of money and do something else. AP's believe they'll be ahead in the long-term, whatever that's defined as. But that has nothing to do with not caring about what today's results are upon entering or leaving.

    The past? Irrelevant. The future? Filled with +EV. The present? Very important, or else no effort would be made.

    It's like trying to get Adam Schiff to tell the truth.

  20. #200
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    Alan, about the "18 yo's in a row" thing...

    You are a savvy craps player, and you've hung around craps tables and gambling forums long enough to understand something about probabilities.

    Given that, your seemingly blase handling of the event baffles me: you must have known by the fifth yo that something special was happening; by the fifteenth you should have been staring in slack-jawed disbelief: nope.

    Once the roll ended you as a reporter would want to tell the world about it...but you didn't do anything to pin down witnesses or notify the LVS.

    It is so damned close to being unheard of as to be deemed miraculous, and you treated it like yesterday's Gefilte fish.

    So many unanswered questions.
    What, Me Worry?

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