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Thread: Short term vs long term and quitting while ahead (continued)

  1. #201
    By the fifth roll I thought the string of 11s was over. Who the hell rolls 18 yos in a row?
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  2. #202
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post

    He thinks he's "ahead" when in reality he's still DOWN hundreds of thousands of dollars.
    He says he doesn’t care about the long term or math though.

    He only cares if he wins today.

    Maybe it’s a Zen thing. The only instant that really matters is the present, the past and future are an illusion.
    There is no one alive who doesn't care if they win or lose each time they walk into a casino. If they didn't care, they'd just throw away X amount of money and do something else. AP's believe they'll be ahead in the long-term, whatever that's defined as. But that has nothing to do with not caring about what today's results are upon entering or leaving.

    The past? Irrelevant. The future? Filled with +EV. The present? Very important, or else no effort would be made.

    It's like trying to get Adam Schiff to tell the truth.
    If you found a guy at a casino that would flip a fair coin with you once a day but only once a day and would pay you $1,000 if you won, but you only had to pay him $20 if you lost and he was willing to do this every day, would you care if you lost on about half the days that you did this?
    The secret to success is quitting while you’re ahead or quitting while you’re behind, especially at some arbitrary preselected number.

  3. #203
    And as I wrote on WOV back then... I failed to recognize the significance of it. Yes, call me stupid.

    As I wrote back then: throwing a yo was a 1/18 occurrence the first time it happened... and the second time it happened... and the third time it happened... and on and on.

    You only get the huge numbers when you LOOK BACK. But on the next roll going forward it's still only a 1/18 chance.

    Ask me about two weeks ago, when I threw hard 8 three times in a row. Did I bet even $1 on it? No. Why? I dont bet hardways. And no one else at the table did either. But I collected $21 each time on my $18 placed 8.
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  4. #204
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    And as I wrote on WOV back then... I failed to recognize the significance of it. Yes, call me stupid.

    As I wrote back then: throwing a yo was a 1/18 occurrence the first time it happened... and the second time it happened... and the third time it happened... and on and on.

    You only get the huge numbers when you LOOK BACK. But on the next roll going forward it's still only a 1/18 chance.

    Ask me about two weeks ago, when I threw hard 8 three times in a row. Did I bet even $1 on it? No. Why? I dont bet hardways. And no one else at the table did either. But I collected $21 each time on my $18 placed 8.
    Yes, throwing a hard 8 3 times in a row is just like 18 straight yos.

    You're a pathological liar.

  5. #205
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    And as I wrote on WOV back then... I failed to recognize the significance of it. Yes, call me stupid.

    As I wrote back then: throwing a yo was a 1/18 occurrence the first time it happened... and the second time it happened... and the third time it happened... and on and on.

    You only get the huge numbers when you LOOK BACK. But on the next roll going forward it's still only a 1/18 chance.

    Ask me about two weeks ago, when I threw hard 8 three times in a row. Did I bet even $1 on it? No. Why? I dont bet hardways. And no one else at the table did either. But I collected $21 each time on my $18 placed 8.
    I didn't want to get into this but I rarely play dice.
    I played it a lot more with my pal who was a dice junky and an alcoholic.
    So we are playing drunken dice at the Silverton one night and Mr. S puts 35 dollars hopping the hard ten.
    I say you're crazy, so he ups the bet to 100 smackers.
    I say if you can do that stupid shit so can I.
    He cracked the 55 and we both got paid to the boxman's disgust.
    That boxman literally was pissed right the fuck off.
    So we both left up the hop bet and he Fucking threw it again.
    Fun Night.
    Many more stories like that but you know... I never played 14 hours of drunken dice nor do I make hop bets.
    And if I seen 5 yo's in a row, no way in HE double hockey sticks would I bet the yo because I don't gamble.
    I'm an Advantage Player.
    Oh and Mr. S has run up his money on dice like no other that I know of.
    We're talking 500 to 6 figures on more than one occasion.
    And one time with 10k to over 400k.
    The only problem with him is he has never been able to hold on to the money for very long.
    Eventually he goes bust all the way to zero and he still owes me a Fucking Thousand Dollars!
    He also made 11 sets of Aces in about 6 hours on the old 4 Queens Full Pay 10/7 Double Bonus Quarter Progressive.
    And that was when the machines spit out quarters and the meter was lightning fast.
    I never seen anyone beat that record.
    The closest I came was 6 sets or maybe it was 8... honestly can't remember.
    My uncle made 4 sets of deuces on deuces in about 45 minutes once... that was nice.
    I have a personal record on deuces wild single line.
    6 Sets of Deuces and Two Royal Flushes in 8 hours.
    I did that twice in my life.
    And one of the times was on a 105% plus return game of deuces.
    Meters were set incorrectly.
    Fun.
    I can't even begin to tell you how many times I made two Royal Flushes in the same night on single line VP.
    So many that I lost count.
    I've never made 3 in one night but I have made 5 Royals in 5 sessions in a row.
    We are talking Single Line VP here.
    That's happened twice.
    Once at the 4 Queens and once at Westgate.
    Dollars at the 4 Queens and 5 Dollar games at the Westgate.
    I've only made two sequential Royals in my life but one was dealt left to right in spades.
    I forget the odds and too tired to look it up but I think the left to right dealt sequential is something like 60 million to 1.
    Last edited by monet; 05-04-2022 at 11:03 PM.

  6. #206
    Gosh Monet... one more hard 10 and jdaewoo will call you a pathological liar. LOL
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  7. #207
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Gosh Monet... one more hard 10 and jdaewoo will call you a pathological liar. LOL
    Doesn't matter that Fucking Cunt is a Cunt.

  8. #208
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    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
    throwing a yo was a 1/18 occurrence the first time it happened... and the second time it happened... and the third time it happened... and on and on.

    You only get the huge numbers when you LOOK BACK.
    Fine, but when you "looked back" you, a crapster / journalist, must have immediately and clearly realized that what you think you saw was rare and special indeed, yet you did nothing to document or memorialize the event; obviously "looking back" you must have realized "Holy Shit! Did I really just see some numb-nuts roll eighteen elevens in a row? Fuck me, I got to pin this down and tell the world."
    What, Me Worry?

  9. #209
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
    throwing a yo was a 1/18 occurrence the first time it happened... and the second time it happened... and the third time it happened... and on and on.

    You only get the huge numbers when you LOOK BACK.
    Fine, but when you "looked back" you, a crapster / journalist, must have immediately and clearly realized that what you think you saw was rare and special indeed, yet you did nothing to document or memorialize the event; obviously "looking back" you must have realized "Holy Shit! Did I really just see some numb-nuts roll eighteen elevens in a row? Fuck me, I got to pin this down and tell the world."
    No I didnt. I've said that many times before. And again, you can call me stupid.

    Look... I've done so much in my life and seen so much nothing surprises me. I've interviewed four Presidents, the Queen, the King of Spain... been through Ethiopia during the famine... walked thru debris fields of jetliner crashes with bodies all around me... been shot at... had a knife to my throat... almost choked a guy to death... what's 18 yos in a row?
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  10. #210
    If Don Ward would have just told Ace Rothstein that the probability of the 3 machines hitting in a row was only in the billions LOOKING BACK, maybe Ace wouldn’t have fired him


    “Ace Rothstein : Ward, you're pissing me off. Now you're insulting my intelligence; what you think I am, a fuckin' idiot? You know goddamn well that someone had to get into those machines and set those fuckin' reels. The probability of one four-reel machine is a million and a half to one; the probability of three machines in a row; it's in the billions! It cannot happen, would not happen, you fuckin' momo! What's the matter with you? Didn't you see you were being set up on the second win?”
    The secret to success is quitting while you’re ahead or quitting while you’re behind, especially at some arbitrary preselected number.

  11. #211
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    If Don Ward would have just told Ace Rothstein that the probability of the 3 machines hitting in a row was only in the billions LOOKING BACK, maybe Ace wouldn’t have fired him


    “Ace Rothstein : Ward, you're pissing me off. Now you're insulting my intelligence; what you think I am, a fuckin' idiot? You know goddamn well that someone had to get into those machines and set those fuckin' reels. The probability of one four-reel machine is a million and a half to one; the probability of three machines in a row; it's in the billions! It cannot happen, would not happen, you fuckin' momo! What's the matter with you? Didn't you see you were being set up on the second win?”
    Great Scene!
    Joe Bob Briggs was Great hosting those Drive In B Movies.

  12. #212
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
    throwing a yo was a 1/18 occurrence the first time it happened... and the second time it happened... and the third time it happened... and on and on.

    You only get the huge numbers when you LOOK BACK.
    Fine, but when you "looked back" you, a crapster / journalist, must have immediately and clearly realized that what you think you saw was rare and special indeed, yet you did nothing to document or memorialize the event; obviously "looking back" you must have realized "Holy Shit! Did I really just see some numb-nuts roll eighteen elevens in a row? Fuck me, I got to pin this down and tell the world."
    No I didnt. I've said that many times before. And again, you can call me stupid.

    Look... I've done so much in my life and seen so much nothing surprises me. I've interviewed four Presidents, the Queen, the King of Spain... been through Ethiopia during the famine... walked thru debris fields of jetliner crashes with bodies all around me... been shot at... had a knife to my throat... almost choked a guy to death... what's 18 yos in a row?
    The only issue I have and it really doesn't matter but I find it odd that Caesars Palace never promoted it.
    Sort of like the Cal and their Golden Arm Wall.
    And Home of the Longest Roll.
    This makes me think the fix was in but Alan says nobody was betting the YO so that proves that it was no fix.
    Crazy Story that we have to take Alan at his word on and I for one choose to believe him.
    You would just think they would of put a plaque on the table or a sign somewhere saying this is where 18 yo's in a row were rolled.
    Usually stuff like this gets leaked out to the media, newspapers or gambling papers.
    So you would think someone else who was there would of leaked the story.
    Like I say... doesn't matter... Great Story that will always be debated.
    Same with MDawg... I choose to believe he wins 60+ sessions in a row and crushes all day every day.
    True or Not if you believe in it that shit is inspirational.
    Same with that punk jbjb... I choose to believe that he and his team crush the Casino for Millions every month.
    After playing a small session of BJ, the other day, I'm not sure how ZK and KJ are sane.
    If I did what they did, I would be just as crazy as the both of them.
    Seriously, that shit is way too slow and personal.
    Fucking Dealers slow rolling you and laughing when they crack 21 from starting with 12.
    EVIL.
    Last edited by monet; 05-05-2022 at 12:57 AM.

  13. #213
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Gosh Monet... one more hard 10 and jdaewoo will call you a pathological liar. LOL
    Doesn't matter that Fucking Cunt is a Cunt.
    Yes he is, but I will give him some credit. At least he's not a BaccaratDegen !

  14. #214
    Originally Posted by Ozzy View Post
    Yes he is, but I will give him some credit. At least he's not a BaccaratDegen !
    monkey... Monkey... MONKEY!!
    Not sure how you can degenerate on a game that James Bond crushes!

    And anyone that knows anything about Casino Games and Cheating knows that Bacc is the easiest and best to have a team to wipe it out.
    They do it all the time and they still do it today.
    Years ago a dealer for Bacc was at the Golden Nugget and the leader of a Pro Team showed him one move to destroy Bacc.
    Dude quit his job and was on the team the next day flying around the world making millions of dollars.
    True Story.
    Granted, you do take a major risk because in some countries, if they catch you, they don't just jail you... they chop your arms or hands off.

    You want to beat Big Bacc?
    This is how it is done.
    Even Phil understood after watching this movie...
    six nine jack deuce three
    yeah straight... 23456.
    "Well, we're going to be very rich and live happily ever after."

    Is living in sin actually a crime?
    - It's frowned upon.
    Oh yeah, by who?
    - In this case, by me.

    Last edited by monet; 05-05-2022 at 06:54 AM.

  15. #215
    I was at Caesars the night a player had a million dollar craps roll. Unfortunately I was at the wrong table. But I did report it on TV. When I asked a top exec at Caesars why they didnt promote it, the exec said to me "because these things happen all the time." I wrote about this several times before.

    I've also reported that the Atlantic City record dice throw was also beaten at Caesars, but Caesars didnt report or promote.

    A software engineer at a $10 table on a afternoon with only one other player held the dice longer than the 4 hours 18 minutes at the Borgata. The pit boss told me the two guys rarely pressed.

    The 18 yos got zero attention outside our table.
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  16. #216
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I was at Caesars the night a player had a million dollar craps roll. Unfortunately I was at the wrong table. But I did report it on TV. When I asked a top exec at Caesars why they didnt promote it, the exec said to me "because these things happen all the time." I wrote about this several times before.

    I've also reported that the Atlantic City record dice throw was also beaten at Caesars, but Caesars didnt report or promote.

    A software engineer at a $10 table on a afternoon with only one other player held the dice longer than the 4 hours 18 minutes at the Borgata. The pit boss told me the two guys rarely pressed.

    The 18 yos got zero attention outside our table.
    Makes Sense.
    Now I look like the idiot.
    Just another day in Pair-A-Dice.

    This Guy beat Caesars one night, at dice and floated a hundo down the drain outside...


  17. #217
    If anybody believes that a jealous twit like jbjb ibya who posts as an illiterate, is in any way shape or form a performing AP, then it's millions of times more likely that Alan witnessed the 18 yo's just as he's said he did.

  18. #218
    Monet... honestly... outside of 30 guys on two casino forums who cares about 18 yos in a row? LOL

    Even though I played craps and I was the business and consumer reporter at the CBS owned and operated TV station in LA, and I was the morning business reporter for Bloomberg on KFWB radio in LA, and I did guest shots on CNBC and CNN... I just thought... oh, missed that....

    LOL

    Sometimes the math geeks get carried away with what's important in the real world.

    And I never met a babe who liked gamblers.
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  19. #219
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    If anybody believes that a jealous twit like jbjb ibya who posts as an illiterate, is in any way shape or form a performing AP, then it's millions of times more likely that Alan witnessed the 18 yo's just as he's said he did.
    That's funny. But millions per month as Monet said was a bit much.

  20. #220
    I have always stayed out of this 18 yo conflict, but here's one a little more believable but still way out there. There was a little guy I used to see every day at craps. I observed that he always seemed to roll a lot of 4's. So I started looking for him and one day when he got the dice I bought the 4 for $500. He rolled 4 9 out of the 14 throws during that roll. I made a decent lick.

    The next 2 times he rolled I bought the 4 for 1,000 and he immediately 7ed out. But 9 of 14 on a 4 to me was way out there. Nowhere near 18 yos though.

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