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Thread: Short term vs long term and quitting while ahead (continued)

  1. #361
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post




    why don't you brag - once again - how many times now have you done this now_____________3________???______________4_______ _____????______ about how you and your capping buddies can be found in some obscure
    article thru the "Wayback Machine"



    as if___________there are 3 people in the entire world who give a flying fuck



    .

    Just helping you with your research, Half Smoke. Here's that wayback link: https://web.archive.org/web/20101014...itysports.com/



    the link that your so proud of means nothing - 120 games - short run - any Bozo the Clown could get lucky for 120 games - kinna like Alan rambling about quitting while ahead and stopping his losses


    .

    Not sure which link you're referring to or specifically what you are referring to. That's the thing about research -- you kind of have to explain what you're talking about.

    Half Smoke is a flagship example of kids playing on the internet.

    Here's some questions for Half Smoke.

    1) How long did you research the subject? How much time did you spend?
    2) When you googled, how many pages did you read? How many references?
    3) Did you follow-up by researching what you found and cross-referencing? Did you call or email anyone regarding the handicappers listed? Did you track down expert opinions?
    4) Did you call or email anyone who might be considered expert regarding the subject? If not, why not? Don't you want to know?
    5) Did Half Smoke even read the McCusker Report listing posted in the Retro Road Trip thread, or did he skip reading anything that might support my credibility?
    6) If he didn't read threads available here, why?


    This is the problem with youngsters these days. They google, read what agrees with them, read the first two or three googled pages (which are delivered to you via algorithms not of your making), and then decide they know something or they have some grasp of the subject. They assume expertise where there is none. They think they "know" something about the subject or the person.

    It's all ignorance, hubris, and narcissism.

    For example, one could have checked the "Handicappers' Hall of Fame" listing Half Smoke provided and then called or emailed the top 10 people on it, "Have you heard of a Bob Dietz running something called Integrity Sports? He claims he's been doing it since 1980." And lo and behold, when you got to Jim Feist, he would have said "Yes."

    But that kind of simple legwork is beyond Half Smoke. He's a googling expert, and he's content with that.

  2. #362
    And finally, regarding numbers of games and significance.

    While it's true that "anyone can get lucky for 120 games," the fact is that you are not dealing with coin flips. These are games of opinion. Strictly speaking mathematically, basic rules of probability do not necessarily apply. For example, if that NBA official who was snagged betting on games happened to go on a 20-2 ATS run, would it really be appropriate to say, "anyone can get lucky?" One can also see a particular culture valuing some elements of results more than another, so that lines can be skewed depending on the culture in which one operates, since lines are not designed to accurately reflect team abilities but are designed to balance wagering in a particular culture.

  3. #363
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    And finally,
    you say you're not sure which link I'm referring to_________????? - do you get stymied real often by the obvious - the link was in your post that I quoted__________this one________


    https://web.archive.org/web/20101014...itysports.com/



    bragging to everybody what a great capper you are but not making any picks to prove it


    fucking pathetic







    I would have respected it if you had made some picks even if you lost - I would have kept my mouth shut

    but talking all this shit and making no picks____________naaaaaaaaaaaaah


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 05-09-2022 at 08:45 AM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  4. #364
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    And finally,
    you say you're not sure which link I'm referring to_________????? - do you get stymied real often by the obvious - the link was in your post that I quoted__________this one________


    https://web.archive.org/web/20101014...itysports.com/



    bragging to everybody what a great capper you are but not making any picks to prove it


    fucking pathetic







    I would have respected it if you had made some picks even if you lost - I would have kept my mouth shut

    but talking all this shit and making no picks____________naaaaaaaaaaaaah


    .

    The web archive post went to multiple pages (you have to click at the bottom of the page). Try the "Achievements" button. I know, takes some real intellect to do that.

    The VCT posts gave explicit instructions for a week's worth of baseball plays.

    And you think you know who Alan Mendelson did or did not interview?

    Want to bet on that?

    I really can't imagine what it must be like to write as an anonymous child, just saying whatever you feel like saying, regardless of what you know or don't know. Must have been a lot of participation awards in your youth.

  5. #365
    If you all can't make money on the Dodgers and the Brewers in the next 3 days you should turn in your 12 dollar sports betting license.

  6. #366
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    If you all can't make money on the Dodgers and the Brewers in the next 3 days you should turn in your 12 dollar sports betting license.

    Without looking at the schedule, I take it the Brewers are playing the Reds? LOL. Okay, now I'll look.

    Huh. I'm surprised the Brewer line isn't higher.

    You don't often see MLB teams that are -79 runs after 30 games. That takes some work.

    P.S. By the above I mean I don't remember ever seeing it. Somebody check the history books.

  7. #367
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    Originally Posted by mcap
    Itís funny that smoke got all fiesty around the same time V got soft.
    I'm only soft til I get aroused.
    What, Me Worry?

  8. #368
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    If you all can't make money on the Dodgers and the Brewers in the next 3 days you should turn in your 12 dollar sports betting license.

    Without looking at the schedule, I take it the Brewers are playing the Reds? LOL. Okay, now I'll look.

    Huh. I'm surprised the Brewer line isn't higher.

    You don't often see MLB teams that are -79 runs after 30 games. That takes some work.

    P.S. By the above I mean I don't remember ever seeing it. Somebody check the history books.
    I talk a lot of shit but I don't Fuck around when it comes to gambling information.
    After I told everyone to keep betting on the Dodgers Run Line all season long they have at minimum won 5 games in a row on the Run Line.
    And all of their wins this season have been against the Run Line.
    That's 19 games and expect a whole lot more!
    Every game they have won has been a win that covers the run line.
    And the Reds are the complete opposite almost losing to the Run Line in every loss.
    I told everyone to stay off the Reds/Pirates Game with the Run Line.... instead bet the OVER.
    And guess what?
    The Reds went OVER in all 3 games.
    Whatever though.
    I'm not an Advantage Player like kewlJ.
    I'm a Gambler!
    Counting Cards is so much better and less time consuming lol lol lol.
    They give +220 on Blackjack all the time lol lol lol.
    "Take this Stiff and Shove it up your Sisters Ass!"

    That's It!
    I haven't watched this movie for a year or so...
    It's Time!

    Last edited by monet; 05-09-2022 at 11:27 AM.

  9. #369
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    I'm not an Advantage Player like kewlJ.
    I'm a Gambler!
    Counting Cards is so much better and less time consuming lol lol lol.

    What the fuck dude!! I said your sports bets were at an advantage because everything you do is at an advantage. You know the math for every thing you do. You responded that "no you were not an AP, but a gambler", saying "it was all about the action".

    Then you got all bent out of shape because I repeated what you said. I know you are playing games. Everyone knows you are playing games. But don't get upset because I repeated WHAT YOU SAID.

    Now if blackjack at whatever downtown casino you played last week is too slow for you, You should have been with me this morning. I am not going to say where (at least publicly) for obvious reasons, but a nice heads up game at 6am, 6 deck, with about 3/4 deck cut off (Probably a strong hint as to where) and a very co-operative dealer. We were flying through 7+ shoes an hour and at heads up that is 50 rounds per shoe. The relief dealer was slightly slower, but still a real nice couple hours with zero heat. The game was moving too fast for any heat. Massive EV and a pretty nice win to boot. Only thing I couldn't do was bathroom break or phone break out of some of the negative counts. When playing heads up if you take a break, the game will be waiting in that same spot. I don't think even YOU would have been bored with this game.

  10. #370
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    I'm not an Advantage Player like kewlJ.
    I'm a Gambler!
    Counting Cards is so much better and less time consuming lol lol lol.

    What the fuck dude!! I said your sports bets were at an advantage because everything you do is at an advantage. You know the math for every thing you do. You responded that "no you were not an AP, but a gambler", saying "it was all about the action".

    Then you got all bent out of shape because I repeated what you said. I know you are playing games. Everyone knows you are playing games. But don't get upset because I repeated WHAT YOU SAID.

    Now if blackjack at whatever downtown casino you played last week is too slow for you, You should have been with me this morning. I am not going to say where (at least publicly) for obvious reasons, but a nice heads up game at 6am, 6 deck, with about 3/4 deck cut off (Probably a strong hint as to where) and a very co-operative dealer. We were flying through 7+ shoes an hour and at heads up that is 50 rounds per shoe. The relief dealer was slightly slower, but still a real nice couple hours with zero heat. The game was moving too fast for any heat. Massive EV and a pretty nice win to boot. Only thing I couldn't do was bathroom break or phone break out of some of the negative counts. When playing heads up if you take a break, the game will be waiting in that same spot. I don't think even YOU would have been bored with this game.
    Two things:

    1) Regarding monet proclaiming that he's not an AP, he's "a gambler." I have an acquaintance who served serious time for bookmaking among other endeavors, and he always, always argued that because he took positions on every blessed game (as opposed to balancing his books), he was "a gambler, not a bookmaker." He insisted that, and no amount of argument could convince him to change his mind.

    2) If you're going to watch this movie again, one of Karen's friends is in the beginning of the movie. He's a ticket writer -- in the credits he's listed as "Lucky" something or other because that's what everybody called him for real. Anyway, he really was a ticket writer and was hired as a consultant, but he made a more believable ticket writer than the actor, so they used him in the scene.

  11. #371
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    Originally Posted by redietz
    2) If you're going to watch this movie again, one of Karen's friends is in the beginning of the movie.
    Uhh... who is Karen?

    Your beloved?

    A bookie?
    What, Me Worry?

  12. #372
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz
    2) If you're going to watch this movie again, one of Karen's friends is in the beginning of the movie.
    Uhh... who is Karen?

    Your beloved?

    A bookie?

    She won LineMasters three of the last five contests, which is impossible. She was also the 2021 Beat the Host champ (horse racing). She was a high end host in Las Vegas during the 90's.

  13. #373
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz
    2) If you're going to watch this movie again, one of Karen's friends is in the beginning of the movie.
    Uhh... who is Karen?

    Your beloved?

    A bookie?
    Karen is notorious for shittin inside a Church's Chicken !

  14. #374
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    If you all can't make money on the Dodgers and the Brewers in the next 3 days you should turn in your 12 dollar sports betting license.

    Without looking at the schedule, I take it the Brewers are playing the Reds? LOL. Okay, now I'll look.

    Huh. I'm surprised the Brewer line isn't higher.

    You don't often see MLB teams that are -79 runs after 30 games. That takes some work.

    P.S. By the above I mean I don't remember ever seeing it. Somebody check the history books.
    I talk a lot of shit but I don't Fuck around when it comes to gambling information.
    After I told everyone to keep betting on the Dodgers Run Line all season long they have at minimum won 5 games in a row on the Run Line.
    And all of their wins this season have been against the Run Line.
    That's 19 games and expect a whole lot more!
    Every game they have won has been a win that covers the run line.
    And the Reds are the complete opposite almost losing to the Run Line in every loss.
    I told everyone to stay off the Reds/Pirates Game with the Run Line.... instead bet the OVER.
    And guess what?
    The Reds went OVER in all 3 games.
    Whatever though.
    I'm not an Advantage Player like kewlJ.
    I'm a Gambler!
    Counting Cards is so much better and less time consuming lol lol lol.
    They give +220 on Blackjack all the time lol lol lol.
    "Take this Stiff and Shove it up your Sisters Ass!"

    That's It!
    I haven't watched this movie for a year or so...
    It's Time!

    Thank you for posting this, it prompted me to watch it again too. What a great movie.

    Watching it again I realized this movie could never be made today.

    For example the scene “Some of these stones got a lot of n***ers in ‘em. Tell Pepe if he’s switchin’ stones he’d better take a f@*kin’ camel back to Nigeria!”
    The secret to success is quitting while youíre ahead or quitting while youíre behind, especially at some arbitrary preselected number.

  15. #375
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post

    And call the White House about my visit to see Reagan.

    thank you for that great amount of info - I'm not totally sure that the White House will be very interested in providing me with excellent customer service when I call there


    I would point out that visiting Reagan is quite a bit different than "I interviewed four Presidents" which is what you claimed


    .
    You can order the reports and transcripts from those three TV stations. I worked for CBS News from 1976 to 1981. My other years were with those TV stations plus Fox from 1987 to 1990. They'll have the interviews.




    re Alan's claim that he inerviewed four Presidents - this will be my last post on this subject - but here are quotes from Alan re his career at CBS when interviewed by the L.A. Business Journal:





    "How did you like working at CBS News?

    I was miserable. I wanted to be a reporter and a correspondent. But they wouldn’t let me.

    Why did you finally leave CBS News?

    When I broke the story that the Hunt family failed to meet their margin call for silver futures. I was the only one in the country who had it. But when I got back to the studio, they told me someone else was doing the story on the air.

    How did you interpret that?

    That I would never get on the air at CBS. That’s when I decided to leave. I thought, if I can’t get on television with this story, when will I ever?"





    https://labusinessjournal.com/media/...ng/news-break/




    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 05-19-2022 at 07:05 AM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  16. #376
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post


    thank you for that great amount of info - I'm not totally sure that the White House will be very interested in providing me with excellent customer service when I call there


    I would point out that visiting Reagan is quite a bit different than "I interviewed four Presidents" which is what you claimed


    .
    You can order the reports and transcripts from those three TV stations. I worked for CBS News from 1976 to 1981. My other years were with those TV stations plus Fox from 1987 to 1990. They'll have the interviews.




    re Alan's claim that he inerviewed four Presidents - this will be my last post on this subject - but here are quotes from Alan re his career at CBS when interviewed by the L.A. Business Journal:





    "How did you like working at CBS News?

    I was miserable. I wanted to be a reporter and a correspondent. But they wouldn’t let me.

    Why did you finally leave CBS News?

    When I broke the story that the Hunt family failed to meet their margin call for silver futures. I was the only one in the country who had it. But when I got back to the studio, they told me someone else was doing the story on the air.

    How did you interpret that?

    That I would never get on the air at CBS. That’s when I decided to leave. I thought, if I can’t get on television with this story, when will I ever?"





    https://labusinessjournal.com/media/...ng/news-break/




    .
    Call me naive, but I don't see how the quote above is germane to Alan's claim to have interviewed four presidents.

    Instead of implying this or offering oblique that, just make a wager. I'm sure with a few thousand sent along to Todd, the debate could be brought to a close.

  17. #377
    I just don't see how it matters as far as this forum. This is a gambling forum, supposed to be on the topic of gambling discussions. I don't care of someone interviewed 4 presidents and an alien from outer space. I don't care if someone else claims to be a secret agent ala James Bond. Nor do I care if some member claims to have won the Nathan Hotdog contest, have been a 12 year old spelling bee champion, nor won 5 gold metals in the Olympics. That is all irrelevant to this forum and what the topic is supposed to be about.

    Now the problem with Alan's claim is context. He basically threw it out there that he has interviewed 4 Presidents and I think a Queen, therefore we have to believe him about 18 y.o. in a row.

    Ummm...no we don't!

  18. #378
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    Interesting find there, HS: it would imply that he never interviewed anyone on camera for CBS as by his own admission CBS refused to let him air any story himself.

    It seems unlikely that the person doing the interview would not be the person delivering the live interview on the air: does not compute.

    But I suggest you follow up with Alan's suggestion, then report back: "You can order the reports and transcripts from those three TV stations. I worked for CBS News from 1976 to 1981. My other years were with those TV stations plus Fox from 1987 to 1990. They'll have the interviews."
    What, Me Worry?

  19. #379
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post

    You can order the reports and transcripts from those three TV stations. I worked for CBS News from 1976 to 1981. My other years were with those TV stations plus Fox from 1987 to 1990. They'll have the interviews.




    re Alan's claim that he inerviewed four Presidents - this will be my last post on this subject - but here are quotes from Alan re his career at CBS when interviewed by the L.A. Business Journal:





    "How did you like working at CBS News?

    I was miserable. I wanted to be a reporter and a correspondent. But they wouldn’t let me.

    Why did you finally leave CBS News?

    When I broke the story that the Hunt family failed to meet their margin call for silver futures. I was the only one in the country who had it. But when I got back to the studio, they told me someone else was doing the story on the air.

    How did you interpret that?

    That I would never get on the air at CBS. That’s when I decided to leave. I thought, if I can’t get on television with this story, when will I ever?"





    https://labusinessjournal.com/media/...ng/news-break/




    .
    Call me naive, but I don't see how the quote above is germane to Alan's claim to have interviewed four presidents.

    Instead of implying this or offering oblique that, just make a wager. I'm sure with a few thousand sent along to Todd, the debate could be brought to a close.

    listen to this Bozo telling to make a wager with Todd

    coming from a guy who brags to everyone that he's a great capper but is too chickenshit to post any pics

    I don't agree with Singer too often but he's right about this guy - it's a Bozo the Clown act


    .
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  20. #380
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    Interesting find there, HS: it would imply that he never interviewed anyone on camera for CBS as by his own admission CBS refused to let him air any story himself.

    It seems unlikely that the person doing the interview would not be the person delivering the live interview on the air: does not compute.

    But I suggest you follow up with Alan's suggestion, then report back: "You can order the reports and transcripts from those three TV stations. I worked for CBS News from 1976 to 1981. My other years were with those TV stations plus Fox from 1987 to 1990. They'll have the interviews."

    thank you Mr. V for the suggestion but I'm not going to do work to settle this

    if I had made a claim such as this and people doubted it I would

    but I didn't make any claims - just questioned some - so, as I see it, the onus is not on me to prove anything - also, it's much, much more difficult to prove a negative than to prove a positive

    I imagine if you had interviewed four Presidents you would have made sure to have some pics of that to show your grandchildren, would have mentioned it in an interview with a newspaper about your career, and would have converted the interviews to a format that could be uploaded to YouTube so everybody in the world could see it


    .

    attention kewlJ - as many hundreds of times as you've gone off topic - it's strange that you would bash me for going off topic

    I'm a guy who appreciates quite a few of your postings re BJ

    but you fairly often make me wonder what's going on with you


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 05-20-2022 at 02:33 AM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

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