I carried $17,200 each trip and if I had to go to the $100 machines (which wasn't too often) I went to BofA to get the $40k.
Many times here I've explained that my strategy does not "beat the math" but does rely on good luck. The way it's played allows for a slight increase in the big hits at the cost of a fair decrease in smaller winners. The relatively large bankroll vs. a small % stop-win goal is very effective in survivability, but you have got to have the stomach for this type play. That's why I always say that I'm sure there are others out there who have these capabilities, but they would be few and far between. If you've played enuf video poker you'd understand that big winning hands always come. The question is, are you able to play it out to get there? I am.
These days the big winners I hit are just dumb luck in the middle of no real strategy. It's all just for enjoyment. I do have good luck especially with my last one, but if I didn't up and leave after each one then I probably would be losing instead of winning.
After several decades you learn that there are all sorts of opinions as to what constitutes the "long-term" in video poker. There are no formulas to accurately predict this. Simulators simply simulate probable results quickly after specifically input numbers of trials along with other defining parameters.
I believe casinos attain it from the sheer column of VP play they get. For people--even the ones who play multiple times a week for years--I'm with the ones who believe the long-term can be realized only after one's lifetime of play is over.
If you have played regularly for income over the course of a couple years you have hit the long term with at least a 99% confidence level.
The big hits are mere blips on the trajectory path up if playing with an advantage or down playing without. Everyone who plays for a living knows this.
FraudJ's word is worth less than the prop cash in Singer's safe...RIP
The only opinions that matter are the one's based on some real math. And there ARE formulas to predict this.
This is like saying well no one really knows if the earth is flat or round. YES, we do know. VP is not really my field so I don't know all the formulas and simulations. Even playing part-time or supplementing my main blackjack income, I probably should know more, but I just was never that interested. I wouldn't have gotten into or played VP at all if it hadn't been for the very strong mailers at the time. Local type casinos here in Vegas were literally fighting over the so called "local" players.
Rob, part of the problem is that you have always been very vague with the math as redietz stated. And what math you do reveal is like some kind of strange "singer math" that really doesn't work in the real world.
The problem is that people like Alan believe you. Alan has believed you off and on (much more on than off) for most of what I have gone back and read on this forum. And now he is back on the Singer bandwagon, even after he claims you told him to his face that you made much of it up. And I know people on these forums have little sympathy for Alan and his gambling so please note that I said "people like Alan". Slingshot that used to post here, also talked about trying to play your "system". God know how many more that just lurk and read on this and all the other forums you have been on, not to mention that column you wrote. Without a doubt there are many people/players that have read your nonsense, been mislead and lost God knows how much trying to duplicate your claims.
Personally, the most I ever got stuck on Dollar 10/7 Double Bonus is just over 16k.
The very next week I had 5 Royals in 5 somewhat short sessions at the 4 Queens.
One of them damn near back to Fucking back.
Call me a Liar you Fucking Rats!
It wasn't long after that a friend noticed the swipe glitch at Binions.
I crushed that place for over a year with that glitch.
Fucking Rat Bastards!
Interesting Note... Binion's was cheating everyone on that swipe and had to give up a bunch of money in the form of a drawing.
There are no "math formulas" that predict what the long-term is in video poker. Only those that people formulate in order to meet their own personal criteria. Saying there are these formulas without actually pointing to where and what they are is meaningless. It's nothing more than when a certain no. of hands begins to closely approach expectation. As I said, it's arbitrary because no one only plays a single type of game, and no one plays perfectly. I've seen 1million hands, 3million, 10million and more estimates. Dan Paymar said the safest way to define long-term in VP is however long one's lifetime of play is. I agree with him.
Kewlj I believe Rob won big playing high limit VP and using discipline to quit when ahead.
You have frequently said you do not disagree with quitting when ahead at negative expectation games.
Rob plays negative expectation games. Why are you attacking him when he is doing something you agree with?
You shouldn't criticize me either. I also play a -EV game. You should be commending both Rob and me.
I gave an example of a 4% edge at video poker. This is what the payscale was:
RF....................800
SF......................50
4 Aces...............160
Small Quads........80
Generic Quads.....50
FH.......................7
Flush..................11.66
ST........................5
3K........................3
2P.........................1
HP.........................1
What would you consider 30K hands to be? Short term, medium term, long term?
Playing 35K hands a week I rarely had a losing week playing the above payscale. That's because I had a 1.58% edge just up thru the 4 Aces. The Royal and SF were all gravy when I hit them.
But take a look at this Jacks or Better payscale at 103.5%:
RF.................800
SF...................50
4 of a Kind.......25
FH..................10
FL....................8
ST....................4
3K....................3
2P.....................2
HP.....................1
So what would you think about the variance of this payscale?. Could you possibly get beat playing optimal strategy?
With this payscale anyone who bet that a given player would be behind after 30K hands would be a major dog to win the bet.
The chance of a player using optimal strategy having a losing week (30K hands) with this payscale is somewhere between thin and none.
And that is what one has to understand about video poker and the short, medium and long term. The payscale is a major part of the equation.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Kew is only trying to cause chaos because that's what drives his life.
People win by getting lucky. They win big by getting super lucky. In mickey's example of Flush Attack and the 10/8 JoB games, winning big by hitting royals were being super lucky. He did not need them to win.
If someone who doesn't play multiple times a week gets one or more of these big hits and then quits for the trip immediately afterwards thereby locking up a sizeable amount, there is no law that says they HAVE to give it all back and more, simply because they're playing a 99.2% game. And there is no law stating that they must keep playing at that high a level.
People win by getting lucky and by cheating on their taxes....wait, I mean by cheating on their girlfriends!
The Strats full pay Jacks games were 10/6 (100.7%) and 9/7 (100.8%).
The payscale I put up is fictitional but a good example of what happens according to exactly what the full house and flush pay.
When the flush pays 7 for 1 or more it changes the odds on the royal because the 4-card flushes become more valuable than the 3-card royals. It will change the odds on the royal from around 40K to 48K. And that means the royal represents much less payback in the game.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Can you prove there isn't?
Just like max, all you do is pretend you know a lot because you both "say" you're AP's (which is somehow supposed to impress us?) yet you NEVER offer anything up that supports anything you claim.
I take that back: max has proved he has an insignificant package based upon the cheap small toilet seat he installed.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)