Short term vs long term and quitting while ahead (continued)

[coach belly]

just my 2nd time playing UX because of his tutelage.

I do that in the UX game I started playing earlier this year.

At least have the courtesy of keeping your lies in your stories straight.

What is the lie? I don't see a conflict in Rob's posts (above).

[kewlJ]

Kewlj I believe Rob won big playing high limit VP and using discipline to quit when ahead.

You have frequently said you do not disagree with quitting when ahead at negative expectation games.

Rob plays negative expectation games. Why are you attacking him when he is doing something you agree with?

You shouldn't criticize me either. I also play a -EV game. You should be commending both Rob and me.

Alan, I don't see where I have attacked you or Rob in this thread. I thought we were having a rare, fairly polite discussion.

And yes, a player playing -EV should employ stop limits. Otherwise he will lose every cent he has.

But that is far different that promoting stop limits as a winning strategy. Stop limits do nothing to overcome negative expectation, nor help a player win.

[kewlJ]

So what you are now trying to say is you were just lucky. You played a progression system and the way progression systems work is they result in many small wins before that big loss comes along a wipes away all that winning plus some. So you are now saying, you were just lucky not to have had that big win in your 4 years (initially 10 years, but amended to 4 years). That you got "lucky" is quite a bit different than a winning system.

But the fact remains: If I have a pocket with $57,200 stuffed inside and I'm in dire need of an additional minimum $2500, it would be downright foolish if I didn't play my strategy to get the extra funds. Every. Single. Time.

You carried a brick of $57,200 on weekly trips for 4 years attempting to win $2500?

I carried $17,200 each trip and if I had to go to the $100 machines (which wasn't too often) I went to BofA to get the $40k.

Ok, good, I am trying to understand how this amazing system works, so thanks for the answer. So you have broken this progression up into several tiers rather than one long progression. So you carried $17,200 on you which is enough for the first tier or maybe first 2 tiers of this progression. So when you lose that, and it is time to move up to $100 machines for the next tier of the progression, you must stop and visit a bank. That must really limit your playing time to banker's hours of 9 to 3 on weekdays, excluding ALL federal holidays. Even shorter allowing for the paperwork that would be required for such a cash withdrawal, if they even were able to accommodate such a withdraw on short notice.

Side story: I once was traveling for a multiple day trip back east and I like to use this method of withdrawing once I am there rather than carrying larger amounts of cash on the plane. So upon arriving, first thing I did was hit my bank (also BofA in this case), to withdraw $20,000. I was told notice was required and the cash would be available the following day. So that first day, I had to play lower limits from just the $3000, I could get from the ATM. Ever since then I carry a small portion with me to avoid such delays.

Anyway, so back to your situation. So during your bankers hour session, you lose the $17,200 that you are carrying and head off to the bank to withdraw $40k. You come back and "pick up" where you left off. And this is one of the faulty issues with a progression. Each round is independent of the previous rounds. The machine doesn't know that you have lost and are now "due" do to some principal of progression wagering. And that is even highlighted in this case, with the long break required. So you sit down with your 4 stacks of $100 bills and start feeding them into the machine, with some kind of weird expectation that you will now win, when in fact each round the expectation is negative.

While I understand I am not as smart as you and no one else in the world could play a progression system the way you can, this just doesn't make any sense and shouldn't to anyone.

[mickeycrimm]

Those were the days.

Isn't that the Stray's JoB game, only available in quarters at the time?

The Strats full pay Jacks games were 10/6 (100.7%) and 9/7 (100.8%).

The payscale I put up is fictitional but a good example of what happens according to exactly what the full house and flush pay.

When the flush pays 7 for 1 or more it changes the odds on the royal because the 4-card flushes become more valuable than the 3-card royals. It will change the odds on the royal from around 40K to 48K. And that means the royal represents much less payback in the game.

You also hold more three card flushes, right? I do that in the UX game I started playing earlier this year. Flushes and FH's for some reason yield the higher multipliers.

I've never studied UX strategy where one is betting 10 coins per line. But my guess is you are most likely right that there is probably a strategy shift involved to catch higher multipliers. It only makes sense. I'll look into it.

[mickeycrimm]

Those were the days.

Isn't that the Stray's JoB game, only available in quarters at the time?

The Strats full pay Jacks games were 10/6 (100.7%) and 9/7 (100.8%).

The payscale I put up is fictitional but a good example of what happens according to exactly what the full house and flush pay.

When the flush pays 7 for 1 or more it changes the odds on the royal because the 4-card flushes become more valuable than the 3-card royals. It will change the odds on the royal from around 40K to 48K. And that means the royal represents much less payback in the game.

You also hold more three card flushes, right? I do that in the UX game I started playing earlier this year. Flushes and FH's for some reason yield the higher multipliers.

Yes, the 3-card flushes played in Flush Atack.

[jbjb]

The Strats full pay Jacks games were 10/6 (100.7%) and 9/7 (100.8%).

The payscale I put up is fictitional but a good example of what happens according to exactly what the full house and flush pay.

When the flush pays 7 for 1 or more it changes the odds on the royal because the 4-card flushes become more valuable than the 3-card royals. It will change the odds on the royal from around 40K to 48K. And that means the royal represents much less payback in the game.

You also hold more three card flushes, right? I do that in the UX game I started playing earlier this year. Flushes and FH's for some reason yield the higher multipliers.

I've never studied UX strategy where one is betting 10 coins per line. But my guess is you are most likely right that there is probably a strategy shift involved to catch higher multipliers. It only makes sense. I'll look into it.

Exactly. With no existing multipliers, you'd hold AAAxx in DDB for the full house and the corresponding 12x's as opposed to holding just AAA.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj I believe Rob won big playing high limit VP and using discipline to quit when ahead.

You have frequently said you do not disagree with quitting when ahead at negative expectation games.

Rob plays negative expectation games. Why are you attacking him when he is doing something you agree with?

You shouldn't criticize me either. I also play a -EV game. You should be commending both Rob and me.

Alan, I don't see where I have attacked you or Rob in this thread. I thought we were having a rare, fairly polite discussion.

And yes, a player playing -EV should employ stop limits. Otherwise he will lose every cent he has.

But that is far different that promoting stop limits as a winning strategy. Stop limits do nothing to overcome negative expectation, nor help a player win.

If I play 8/5 Bonus poker at $5 a hand and I hit quad aces on the first hand for $400 and quit for the day, have I a profit for the day?

Yes or no?

What is wrong with that?

I'll answer: nothing is wrong with that.

So why do you challenge it with long term gobbledygook?

Please tell?

[Alan Mendelson]

Ummm... BofA routinely has hours of 9a to 6p at many locations and at most branches near casinos I think withdrawals of $40,000 can be handled in less than five minutes with a driver license and a PIN.

If cash weren't on hand at a smaller branch (like the one in Victorville next to Del Taco driving to Vegas from LA) you could get a cashier check to give the cage, as I've done.

[soxfan]

Only chickens-shits, scared, loser recreational player employ this stop-wins/stop-loss foolishness. Only bulls-shits artist claim that they can win well and regular via the "money-managements" and employ the hits and run, quit while yer ahead, never turn a winnings shoe into the losings shoe, and other nosensenses and retardations! If you got an actual winnings style then that style will be good for some many units profits per shoe, no ore no less. So if yer style is winners forget the stops-loss/wins nonsense, and just commit to playin so many shoe per day so many day per week, treat the proposition like the business and let the profits come to you, simple, hey hey!

[Alan Mendelson]

Only chickens-shits, scared, loser recreational player employ this stop-wins/stop-loss foolishness. Only bulls-shits artist claim that they can win well and regular via the "money-managements" and employ the hits and run, quit while yer ahead, never turn a winnings shoe into the losings shoe, and other nosensenses and retardations! If you got an actual winnings style then that style will be good for some many units profits per shoe, no ore no less. So if yer style is winners forget the stops-loss/wins nonsense, and just commit to playin so many shoe per day so many day per week, treat the proposition like the business and let the profits come to you, simple, hey hey!

Very interesting. So you think that big winners keep coming at slots and video poker? And you think one hot shoe at blackjack will be followed by another? And you think one monster hand at craps will be followed by another?

I think that's interesting. But I havent been that lucky or expert in my play.

Yes, I've hit two royals the same day... but only twice in about 25 years of playing video poker.

I've hit two royals in the same weekend only four times in those 25 years.

But I congratulate you for having repeating great runs. It must be wonderful.

[Rob.Singer]

So what you are now trying to say is you were just lucky. You played a progression system and the way progression systems work is they result in many small wins before that big loss comes along a wipes away all that winning plus some. So you are now saying, you were just lucky not to have had that big win in your 4 years (initially 10 years, but amended to 4 years). That you got "lucky" is quite a bit different than a winning system.



You carried a brick of $57,200 on weekly trips for 4 years attempting to win $2500?

I carried $17,200 each trip and if I had to go to the $100 machines (which wasn't too often) I went to BofA to get the $40k.

Ok, good, I am trying to understand how this amazing system works, so thanks for the answer. So you have broken this progression up into several tiers rather than one long progression. So you carried $17,200 on you which is enough for the first tier or maybe first 2 tiers of this progression. So when you lose that, and it is time to move up to $100 machines for the next tier of the progression, you must stop and visit a bank. That must really limit your playing time to banker's hours of 9 to 3 on weekdays, excluding ALL federal holidays. Even shorter allowing for the paperwork that would be required for such a cash withdrawal, if they even were able to accommodate such a withdraw on short notice.

Side story: I once was traveling for a multiple day trip back east and I like to use this method of withdrawing once I am there rather than carrying larger amounts of cash on the plane. So upon arriving, first thing I did was hit my bank (also BofA in this case), to withdraw $20,000. I was told notice was required and the cash would be available the following day. So that first day, I had to play lower limits from just the $3000, I could get from the ATM. Ever since then I carry a small portion with me to avoid such delays.

Anyway, so back to your situation. So during your bankers hour session, you lose the $17,200 that you are carrying and head off to the bank to withdraw $40k. You come back and "pick up" where you left off. And this is one of the faulty issues with a progression. Each round is independent of the previous rounds. The machine doesn't know that you have lost and are now "due" do to some principal of progression wagering. And that is even highlighted in this case, with the long break required. So you sit down with your 4 stacks of $100 bills and start feeding them into the machine, with some kind of weird expectation that you will now win, when in fact each round the expectation is negative.

While I understand I am not as smart as you and no one else in the world could play a progression system the way you can, this just doesn't make any sense and shouldn't to anyone.

It's so funny watching you and one or two others trying to change what I said because it hurts too much.

$17,200 covers the first 5 of the 6 denominations. If I have as much as $19,699 on hand after finishing up thru the 5 denominations, I hit the bank for the $40k WHEN THEY OPEN. And I almost always played overnight. As soon as I had at least $59,700 after that, I quit and returned home.

When you play the $100 machines and sometimes even the $25 ones, you don't "feed hundreds" into the bill acceptor. You get tickets made for however much you want, and insert it/them.

If you can't figure it out, ask. Making up stuff only ruins you even further.

[soxfan]

Cats what got a true winnings style don't rely on luck. Yes, even cats with a verify edge and an advantage will face adversity and encounter losing weeks and even losing moths there and here. But cats what do have an advantage will win, and the more they play the more they will win in the long run and even in the medium run most often. Cats what think they can win via hits and run, and employing stops-win/loss, money managements are deluding themselves, hey hey.

[monet]

Only chickens-shits, scared, loser recreational player employ this stop-wins/stop-loss foolishness. Only bulls-shits artist claim that they can win well and regular via the "money-managements" and employ the hits and run, quit while yer ahead, never turn a winnings shoe into the losings shoe, and other nosensenses and retardations! If you got an actual winnings style then that style will be good for some many units profits per shoe, no ore no less. So if yer style is winners forget the stops-loss/wins nonsense, and just commit to playin so many shoe per day so many day per week, treat the proposition like the business and let the profits come to you, simple, hey hey!

Very interesting. So you think that big winners keep coming at slots and video poker? And you think one hot shoe at blackjack will be followed by another? And you think one monster hand at craps will be followed by another?

I think that's interesting. But I havent been that lucky or expert in my play.

Yes, I've hit two royals the same day... but only twice in about 25 years of playing video poker.

I've hit two royals in the same weekend only four times in those 25 years.

But I congratulate you for having repeating great runs. It must be wonderful.

That's because you don't push or play enough hands.
If you did you would have crazy runs too.
In both directions, of course, depending on what game it was you were playing.
If you were playing something with low variance and over 100% you would just print money.
Heck play games at -EV 1% and get a bunch of shit on the backside and you will still print money and steak.
Actually you won't know what to do with all that comp.
I think I have over 50k in comp combined but I don't even give a shit.
They text me all the time about coming over and having dinner and I think to myself... Go Fuck Yourself.
And they are like how about an entry to our tournament and a suite or room for the weekend.
And I'm like... Listen, I don't like to be scheduled.
Take all that shit and shove it up your ass but if you could give me some Extra Free Play I sure would be happier.
Sometimes it works.
Last time I was playing and losing I was getting 500 Free Play every 30 minutes or so.
I'll spin all day long if they are going to keep doing that.
They don't even realize that game is 99.45% payback.

[Alan Mendelson]

Cats what got a true winnings style don't rely on luck. Yes, even cats with a verify edge and an advantage will face adversity and encounter losing weeks and even losing moths there and here. But cats what do have an advantage will win, and the more they play the more they will win in the long run and even in the medium run most often. Cats what think they can win via hits and run, and employing stops-win/loss, money managements are deluding themselves, hey hey.

Meow.

[Alan Mendelson]

Only chickens-shits, scared, loser recreational player employ this stop-wins/stop-loss foolishness. Only bulls-shits artist claim that they can win well and regular via the "money-managements" and employ the hits and run, quit while yer ahead, never turn a winnings shoe into the losings shoe, and other nosensenses and retardations! If you got an actual winnings style then that style will be good for some many units profits per shoe, no ore no less. So if yer style is winners forget the stops-loss/wins nonsense, and just commit to playin so many shoe per day so many day per week, treat the proposition like the business and let the profits come to you, simple, hey hey!

Very interesting. So you think that big winners keep coming at slots and video poker? And you think one hot shoe at blackjack will be followed by another? And you think one monster hand at craps will be followed by another?

I think that's interesting. But I havent been that lucky or expert in my play.

Yes, I've hit two royals the same day... but only twice in about 25 years of playing video poker.

I've hit two royals in the same weekend only four times in those 25 years.

But I congratulate you for having repeating great runs. It must be wonderful.

That's because you don't push or play enough hands.
If you did you would have crazy runs too.
In both directions, of course, depending on what game it was you were playing.
If you were playing something with low variance and over 100% you would just print money.
Heck play games at -EV 1% and get a bunch of shit on the backside and you will still print money and steak.
Actually you won't know what to do with all that comp.
I think I have over 50k in comp combined but I don't even give a shit.
They text me all the time about coming over and having dinner and I think to myself... Go Fuck Yourself.
And they are like how about an entry to our tournament and a suite or room for the weekend.
And I'm like... Listen, I don't like to be scheduled.
Take all that shit and shove it up your ass but if you could give me some Extra Free Play I sure would be happier.
Sometimes it works.
Last time I was playing and losing I was getting 500 Free Play every 30 minutes or so.
I'll spin all day long if they are going to keep doing that.
They don't even realize that game is 99.45% payback.

I was never a high roller. I never started with a big bankroll. And yes I had plenty of comps... including a fully comped wedding with about 30 guests... rooms and dinner and video and photographs. MisterV will tell you all about it.

My play was simple: start relatively small and try to hit big.

Two of the three 100k royals I hit on $2500 of free play.
The third I hit starting with $2000 on $5 VP.

I cant understand having a bankroll like you guys.

[jbjb]

Kewlj I believe Rob won big playing high limit VP and using discipline to quit when ahead.

You have frequently said you do not disagree with quitting when ahead at negative expectation games.

Rob plays negative expectation games. Why are you attacking him when he is doing something you agree with?

You shouldn't criticize me either. I also play a -EV game. You should be commending both Rob and me.

Alan, I don't see where I have attacked you or Rob in this thread. I thought we were having a rare, fairly polite discussion.

And yes, a player playing -EV should employ stop limits. Otherwise he will lose every cent he has.

But that is far different that promoting stop limits as a winning strategy. Stop limits do nothing to overcome negative expectation, nor help a player win.

If I play 8/5 Bonus poker at $5 a hand and I hit quad aces on the first hand for $400 and quit for the day, have I a profit for the day?

Yes or no?

What is wrong with that?

I'll answer: nothing is wrong with that.

So why do you challenge it with long term gobbledygook?

Please tell?

The day is irrelevant. Only your LIFETIME results are what matter.

[monet]

The day is irrelevant. Only your LIFETIME results are.

What??
Why is that?
Do they give you a cookie for your Lifetime Results when you die?

[Alan Mendelson]

Jbjb is just parroting the AP gobbledygook about long term play. Ignore it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Here's an experiment. Ask a NON GAMBLER what they think of a casino patron who says "I have an edge on every bet I make at a casino and for that reason I don't stop playing."

Let me know if their response includes the phrase "they're an addict."

[jbjb]

Jbjb is just parroting the AP gobbledygook about long term play. Ignore it.

Yeah ignore me, a winner and follow you, a LOSER! Very good advice!