Offbeat strategy question.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well, let's see how stupid she is. Chance of drawing a second pair when you hold one pair is 1/6. Chance of drawing a card to make three of a kind is 1/9.

Now, holding AQJ you have 9 cards that would give you a winning pair. That's 9/47 remaining cards which beats a 1/6 draw and a 1/9 draw. And not included here are the chances of drawing a K-Ten to complete the straight, which is a long shot.

Comments?

No one wants to comment? I took this right out of one of those "AP books" I have.

[arcimede$]

Well, let's see how stupid she is. Chance of drawing a second pair when you hold one pair is 1/6. Chance of drawing a card to make three of a kind is 1/9.

Now, holding AQJ you have 9 cards that would give you a winning pair. That's 9/47 remaining cards which beats a 1/6 draw and a 1/9 draw. And not included here are the chances of drawing a K-Ten to complete the straight, which is a long shot.

Comments?

It's not a one card draw, Alan. So 9/47 is not relevant. You have to look at two card draw percentages.

Holding 33 you have a 28.3% chance of hitting a winner.

Holding AQJ you have a 37% chance
Holding J you have a 31.4% chance
Holding QJ you have a 37.6% chance

The winner is QJ if you are looking for the best chance of hitting a winning hand.

PS. I used winpoker and calculated the % for nada and then subtracted that from 100.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, take a look at this:

http://www.videopoker.com/learn/statistics/

You say QJ. Others say hold the pair of 3s. This should be interesting.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc you wrote: "It's not a one card draw, Alan. So 9/47 is not relevant."

I didn't say it was a one card draw. I said: "Now, holding AQJ you have 9 cards that would give you a winning pair. That's 9/47 remaining cards"

Where did I say it was a one card draw? After the initial deal there are 47 cards remaining. 9 of the remaining 47 cards would help you make a high pair. That's 9/47. Isn't it?

[arcimede$]

Arc you wrote: "It's not a one card draw, Alan. So 9/47 is not relevant."

I didn't say it was a one card draw. I said: "Now, holding AQJ you have 9 cards that would give you a winning pair. That's 9/47 remaining cards"

Where did I say it was a one card draw? After the initial deal there are 47 cards remaining. 9 of the remaining 47 cards would help you make a high pair. That's 9/47. Isn't it?

Nope, you could draw 9 out of 47 as the first drawn card and, if that fails, 9 out of 46 with the second card drawn. This is a total of about 32% of the time. Note that 9/47 =~ 19%.

[arcimede$]

Arc, take a look at this:

http://www.videopoker.com/learn/statistics/

You say QJ. Others say hold the pair of 3s. This should be interesting.

There's no disagreement between the two choices. One chooses the QJ if their goal is optimize the number of winning hands. One chooses 33 if their goal is to optimize their ER.

[mustangsally]

There's no disagreement between the two choices. One chooses the QJ if their goal is optimize the number of winning hands. One chooses 33 if their goal is to optimize their ER.

Hi Alan!
I agree here.
Highest win prob is to hold the QJ.
using the calculator(hope the link works) 3C,3S,QC,AD,JH
and Excel

win prob	ways	Held Draws	EV	Total
				
0.376441566	6104	_ _ QC _ JH	0.5	16215
0.370027752	400	_ _ QC AD JH	0.4561	1081
0.368547641	5976	_ _ _ AD JH	0.4684	16215
0.368547641	5976	_ _ QC AD _	0.4684	16215
0.314136742	56031	_ _ _ _ JH	0.4643	178365
0.31178202	55611	_ _ QC _ _	0.4527	178365
0.311277437	55521	_ _ _ AD _	0.4523	178365
0.287141536	4656	3C 3S _ _ _	0.8237	16215
0.259019426	280	3C 3S _ _ JH	0.6753	1081
0.259019426	280	3C 3S _ AD _	0.6753	1081
0.259019426	280	3C 3S QC _ _	0.6753	1081
0.250693802	271	_ 3S _ AD JH	0.2831	1081
0.250693802	271	_ 3S QC _ JH	0.2831	1081
0.250693802	271	_ 3S QC AD _	0.2831	1081
0.250693802	271	3C _ _ AD JH	0.2831	1081
0.250693802	271	3C _ QC _ JH	0.2831	1081
0.250693802	271	3C _ QC AD _	0.2831	1081
0.234227567	3798	3C _ QC _ _	0.3505	16215
0.227998767	3697	_ 3S _ AD _	0.3052	16215
0.227998767	3697	3C _ _ AD _	0.3052	16215
0.224051804	3633	_ 3S _ _ JH	0.2894	16215
0.224051804	3633	_ 3S QC _ _	0.2894	16215
0.224051804	3633	3C _ _ _ JH	0.2894	16215
0.191489362	9	_ 3S QC AD JH	0.1915	47
0.191489362	9	3C _ QC AD JH	0.1915	47
0.179981733	276081	_ _ _ _ _	0.3128	1533939
0.170212766	8	3C 3S _ AD JH	0.383	47
0.170212766	8	3C 3S QC _ JH	0.383	47
0.170212766	8	3C 3S QC AD _	0.383	47
0.127014829	22655	_ 3S _ _ _	0.2285	178365
0.12608976	22490	3C _ _ _ _	0.223	178365
0	0	3C 3S QC AD JH	0	1

Sally

I'm just starting out in VP
Only played a few times. I like talking with the seniors while playing. They all have great stories!

[Alan Mendelson]

Thanks for joining us Mustagsalley!

Well, we got the range of answers that I expected, and yes I tried to stir the pot. What I am looking for now is a discussion about a strategy to win (holding QJ for example) vs optimal strategy which says to hold the pair of 3s.

[arcimede$]

Alan, Video Poker strategy has been studied by many very educated individuals. There's nothing real complex going on from a mathematical standpoint. Maybe you should listen to the experts instead of the silly nonsense that you have been blindly accepting.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, Video Poker strategy has been studied by many very educated individuals. There's nothing real complex going on from a mathematical standpoint. Maybe you should listen to the experts instead of the silly nonsense that you have been blindly accepting.

What is the point of your comment? So, let me state it again:

"Proper strategy" says to hold the pair of threes. In our problem, where the wife says get me five dollars, the correct strategy is to hold JQ. Now, there comes a time when you have to step back and say "sometimes just getting my money back might be better." When? For example, you are playing for comps, or to reach another play level such as on multi strike, or when trying to turn free play into cash.

[redietz]

The question is, "What would the casino prefer you do?" In almost all cases, the casino prefers you do whatever provides the lowest return, regardless of number of hands. So simply don't do what the casino wants you to do.

There is no wife telling you to make five dollars. There is no Rob Singer telling you to reach a win goal. There is only you and the video poker and the casino. So why not do the thing that gives you the best return?

[Alan Mendelson]

I like your thinking redietz, but what is the best return? Holding 3-3 is not a paying hand, and holding QJ is more likely to at least give you your five dollars back.

[slingshot]

Almost every book agrees that the J is the best draw because it can fit in the most hands-and I NEVER like leaving out the possibility of a Royal.

[arcimede$]

What is the point of your comment? So, let me state it again:

"Proper strategy" says to hold the pair of threes. In our problem, where the wife says get me five dollars, the correct strategy is to hold JQ. Now, there comes a time when you have to step back and say "sometimes just getting my money back might be better." When? For example, you are playing for comps, or to reach another play level such as on multi strike, or when trying to turn free play into cash.

Alan, no one is arguing against your statement. IF, got that, IF your goal is to try and win a single hand then holding the QJ is the proper play. The problem is if you try to take that strategy and apply it to different goals as in "a discussion about a strategy to win (holding QJ for example) vs optimal strategy ". (Notice you said nothing about goals here.)

You simply can't take the strategy outside the goals that are stated and still expect it to be valid.

[arcimede$]

Almost every book agrees that the J is the best draw because it can fit in the most hands-and I NEVER like leaving out the possibility of a Royal.

Show me one book that supports your claim. Almost all books are written to discuss playing multiple hands, not a single hand. In fact, I doubt there exists a single book that discusses playing one hand.

[arcimede$]

I like your thinking redietz, but what is the best return? Holding 3-3 is not a paying hand, and holding QJ is more likely to at least give you your five dollars back.

The best return over time is to hold the 3-3. In fact, it's a rather big difference in most games. Once again, you will hit more winners holding QJ than any other hold. However, those winners on average will be considerably less valuable. One probably only needs to play a few hundred hands to see the benefit of holding the 3-3.

Here's an analogy. You go to a market where they are selling oranges for .50 or 3 for a dollar. Obviously, buying one orange at .50 will be less expensive than buying 3 which would cost twice as much. Does that mean you should run to the market every day and buy one orange? Figure it out. It's exactly the same kind of math.

[slingshot]

The only one I kept is "Win at Video Poker" by Roger Fleming. In the back is the section on best one card draw for when the Royal hits astronomical proportions on a progressive. It also states the J is the best card to hold in any situation-if you only had one shot.

[arcimede$]

The only one I kept is "Win at Video Poker" by Roger Fleming. In the back is the section on best one card draw for when the Royal hits astronomical proportions on a progressive. It also states the J is the best card to hold in any situation-if you only had one shot.

Unique situation, but very educational nonetheless.

What does this claim tell you? It should tell you that IF your goal is to hit a RF the best one card hold is a single Jack. And note, it's not because it gives you a better chance at the RF. That is the same with any single royal card. It's because the average return of all the other possible draws is higher. That is expert play logic.

It all gets back to your goal. Now, for most people (who never see an "astronomical" progressive) their goal is to win the most money possible. When that is the goal the best approach to playing VP is expert play strategy. That is what the math tells you.

[slingshot]

Three days ago, I was playing ddbp and the machine was tug and go, and I received two high cards with matching suited LOW cards-as has happened several times in the past few months. Once again, I swept the hand and received 4 3's for $100. One and two card draws and sweeps have been great to me in the past couple of months. Last time, it was 4 A's. This is where I go with Rob-the heck with what the math says you should do. I DID NOT say ignore it, BTW.

[Alan Mendelson]

Interesting about the jack. The last royal I hit before my 170,000 hand drought was when I held just a jack. The drought was broken when I held three to the royal. But Ive also had a royal holding just an ace, and then twice I was dealt a royal and once I drew all five cards for a royal after holding no cards.