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Thread: Mdawg claims proven false AGAIN.

  1. #1
    As some may remember, last fall I was able to get a look at the gambling records of the person posting at WoV as Mdawg. At that time he was about 7 months into his 2020 trip that lasted until December and at that time, adding up all his daily accounts that he posted he claims added up to well over $500,000 in winnings. However his actual records from the property I saw (the main one he plays) had an actual loss of $100k.

    This forced Mdawg to amend his at the time 7 month lie and several days later at WoV, he snuck in the following statement at the bottom of a post: "additionally Wizard and I went over my records and I am about even for this trip". Well he wasn't really even, unless you call 100k in the red even, but at least he was proven that he lied and he was forced to admit it, even if he did so by trying to sneak it past everyone.

    So with the Cosmo sale about to be finalized next month, Cosmo and MGM employees will be intermixed to some degree. Some of that has already occurred with Cosmo employees jumping ship early, trying to get a leg up on their fellow Cosmo employees. Back in early April, I had some friends over for the final 4 college basketball Saturday games. One of those friends is a longtime Pit boss at an MGM property. He happened to mention that he has a new pit critter formerly from Cosmo join his shift. So I asked him to ask the new guy (former Cosmo pit critter) about the guy posting at WoV that claimed be played and beat double deck blackjack regularly at Cosmo to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars.

    It took a few weeks for me to hear back, because I don't see my friend that regularly and had really all but forgotten about it, but 2 weeks ago, I gave him a call about a different topic and he reported that the guy's answer was 1) Employees at Cosmo were aware of the claims and 2) that there is no way in hell that they occurred as they were reported. The quote I was given was "Cosmo was the last place in Vegas that would allow a player to win at blackjack on a regular basis, card counting at any level of play". This corelated exactly with my own experiences and those of other real players. Cosmo is as sweaty as they come and aggressively back's off and 86's anyone even possibly card counting and even worse aggressively databases, anyone even suspected of doing so. This is why most real players avoid Cosmo.

    Just another case of the great Mdog's fantasy fictional claims being proven BS. Can't wait to see what he comes up with now.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Just another case of the great Mdog's fantasy fictional claims being proven BS.
    Your fantasies, lies and imaginary anecdotes are proof of nothing.

    You are a proven and admitted liar, incapable of posting truthfully.

    Nothing you write should be believed.

    Wise up.

  3. #3
    Figures. Coach belly to the rescue.

  4. #4
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    KJ, just wondering if the new pit critter explained how he and others at Cosmo had become aware of douche dawg's ridiculous claims?

    They must have gotten a heads up, I doubt they monitor this board...but maybe they do?

    Could it have been from the "heads up" I gave a casino some time ago about his silly claims?

    You know, when as some clowns say I "ratted" him out?

    Fact is, I merely hoisted him on his own petard.
    What, Me Worry?

  5. #5
    I don't know MrV. I guess it is possible. Are you looking for the credit?

    But really, much more likely is that casino personnel, database personnel, monitor gambling forums and even social media trying to piece together AP's. I mean this guy, Mdog posted these claims at WoV. That is not some obscure forum.

    Also, among the ranks of casino personnel are advantage players and/or recreational gamblers that read these forums on their own time for their own interests and even amusement. Claims of this magnitude were unlikely to go unnoticed.

  6. #6
    Wait! I though Boz was the one that wrote letters to Casinos warning of this Mdog character's claims? Did you guys both (Boz and MrV) do that? I wonder how many others from various forums did the same.

    remind me to keep on your guys "good" side.

  7. #7
    Wow, some guy who claims to have a winning baccarat system is lying. Someone call the NYT.

  8. #8
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    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Wow, some guy who claims to have a winning baccarat system is lying. Someone call the NYT.
    The lying isn't surprising; it's the Wiz enabling the schmuck, giving the jackass a forum to bray from that is controversial.
    What, Me Worry?

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    The lying isn't surprising; it's the Wiz enabling the schmuck, giving the jackass a forum to bray from that is controversial.
    Mike duped all you squares for years upon years.
    Get Over It.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    giving the jackass a forum to bray from that is controversial.
    Is his braying controversial, or is the forum's existence controversial, because it provides him the opportunity to express himself?

  11. #11
    I'm not sure Mdawg has a system that challenges any math. Is getting lucky a challenge of the math? Is making big bets that luckily win a challenge of the math? Is claiming to have a system but not revealing the system a challenge of the math?

    How can you call any of his reports or claims a challenge of the math when he hasnt posted any math?

    It all appears to be nothing more than winning a few big bets.

    If he makes $10k bets he only needs to win 2 to win $20k.
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    The lying isn't surprising; it's the Wiz enabling the schmuck, giving the jackass a forum to bray from that is controversial.
    Mike duped all you squares for years upon years.
    Get Over It.

    LOL, monet. The man was promoting a parlay calculator. Either he was stuping or duping. And I think he's too smart and too experienced to be stuping.

    So, as Sherlock Holmes says in The Sign of the Four (and monet says regularly), when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I'm not sure Mdawg has a system that challenges any math. Is getting lucky a challenge of the math? Is making big bets that luckily win a challenge of the math? Is claiming to have a system but not revealing the system a challenge of the math?

    How can you call any of his reports or claims a challenge of the math when he hasnt posted any math?

    It all appears to be nothing more than winning a few big bets.

    If he makes $10k bets he only needs to win 2 to win $20k.
    Alan, have you read Mdogs thread? For a year now...more than a year, dating back to March 2021, he has played and won almost everyday, excluding a few weeks he returned back to California.

    So yes, winning one or two large 10k bets can account for a winning day. It can NOT account for 300+ of these, almost in succession. If a player wins every one or nearly every one of his large bets daily for over a year, yes that defies the math!

    Not only that, but with blackjack, which about half his claims have been over the last 6 month, a player winning all or nearly all his large bets just is not going to be tolerated long, especially at one of the sweatiest casinos in Las Vegas, if not the country.

    These things DO defy the math as well as the way Las Vegas operates.

    I guess your position is no real surprise being you have been labeled a math defier, by Wizard himself.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 05-22-2022 at 06:36 PM.

  14. #14
    What most of these guys have in common is a betting progression system. They just don't work, long term!

    Look at Singer. He claims a progression betting system where he moves up in denomination multiple levels. And it just so happens he always wins when he gets to the higher levels....at least according to him, as he has said he has never lost the entire amount needed to play the progression. Well that is just NOT the way it works. When you get to the higher levels of the progression you are no more likely to win than the lower levels.

    Now it is true that this Mdog has not specifically spelled out his progression system. But by reading his reports, you know he has one, because he frequently is way behind and then scores a big win to catch up and move ahead. THAT is a progression system. he is betting bigger, chasing losses. And you don't always win when you get to the bigger bets. Your odds are no better than with the smaller bets. Anyone claiming a winning progression betting system by winning all or most of their large bets is full of crap!

  15. #15
    Really progression betting systems are not all that different than blackjack card counting. We bet much bigger when our tracking (counting) of the cards says we are at an advantage. But guess what no card counter wins all his big bets. No card counter even wins even 50% of his big bets. We win 44%, maybe 45% if we are lucky (up from the normal 43% at neutral counts) and the 150% payout from blackjack takes up over 100% return. But it is barely over 100% return.

    I can not stress this enough: Anyone claiming a winning system by winning all or most of their large bets is full of crap. And they ARE defying the math.

  16. #16
    Kewlj... so the guy gets lucky. He has the bankroll to play until he wins for the day.

    Is that really so impossible?

    And maybe he fudged a couple of days? Big deal.
    It's all about quitting -- or pausing -- when ahead. Lock up the profit.

  17. #17
    Uhhh...yes, it is impossible to do every day or nearly every day.

    Your arguement has some validity for a small sample size of a couple days. Not over 300 days.

  18. #18
    Alan, I guess the problem is that you just want to always believe that players can overcome the house edge and win long term just by being "lucky".

    It doesnt work that way. But I don't think the gambler in you will ever accept that, despite your own experiences.

  19. #19
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    Ponder this little nugget:

    " It has been mathematically proved that, in ideal conditions of randomness, and with negative expectation, no long-run regular winning is possible for players of games of chance."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling_mathematics
    What, Me Worry?

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    It has been mathematically proved that, in ideal conditions of randomness, and with negative expectation, no long-run regular winning is possible for players of games of chance.
    300 days is not the long run...is it?

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