Mdawg claims proven false AGAIN.

[kewlJ]

Look, if I go on to any legitimate gambling forum and promote the idea that the way to win at blackjack is to stand on every total of 12 or more no matter what the dealer shows, quaranteeing that the player never breaks, I would be immediately challenged by real players and the math guys who would break down the math of such a ridiculous losing strategy. It is a form of self policing.

WoV is supposed to be and once was a legitimate gambling forum. And over the years, many, many examples of someone coming along with outlandish voodoo strategies or ideas have been challenged by players and math guys. It has always been that way. I am not saying there isn't a place for people with ridiculous long disproven ideas like "quit while ahead", but other members, real players and math experts must be allowed to set the record straight.

For whatever reason, at WoV, challenging someone's voodoo, long disproven ideas, strategies and claims is now not permissable. To the point that Mdawg is literally protected. I don't know whether it is because the owners of WoV, want these kinds of discussions and losing strategies being promoted (because they run online casinos), or whether Shackleford has just sold out and is being paid to allow Mdawg's claims. But it isn't right. It isn't what Shackleford announced when he started the forum, something along the lines of "helping players be better gamblers".

[smurgerburger]

Is Mdawg a handicapper too? Is he selling his services? Is he using investors' money?

Is he even posting using his real name?

Here's where I'll agree with young jbjb. What does it matter what he posts?

Give it a rest.

First of all, you have absolutely no idea if he is or isn't selling anything. If he were doing those things, it would be behind closed doors.

Second, let's say a gambler sells the idea (but not for money) to someone that various progression Rube Goldberg systems work, and that someone then goes on to use those Rube Goldberg systems while getting his ass handed to him financially by the casinos. And that goes on for 20 or 30 years. Are you saying that because no money changed hands, and nothing "illegal" was done, there was no harm?

From a selfish perspective, what he posts also detracts from and denigrates those who know what they're doing gambling-wise. So it subtracts from the reputations of those who are actually giving mathematically sound advice. Reputations have their own values, both material and non-material.

That's why what he posts matters.

If I were running a casino and what mattered to me was how much money I made, I'd have a dozen MDawgs posting on all forums, telling tales just like his.

You pride yourself on your intellectual rigor. Let's go back to the bolded. Why do you, the individual R.E. Dietz, care about people on here or WoV possibly not sufficiently respecting your gambling acumen?

You and KJ endlessly spin your wheels offering altruistic accounts of your obsessions when it seems obvious to everyone that the root of all this is personal.

So again *who* cares? What is the nature of this insecurity that plagues you?

[Alan Mendelson]

Let me sum up my opinion of the Mdawg story this way:

It must be nice to be in a position to lose $100k in casinos. Very nice.

I'm sure the kids on this forum hope that someday they'll be as fortunate.

[jdaewoo]

I think Mdawg is more believable than the poster who says he makes $20,000 a week with free play from 20 players cards. And his claim is accepted by the AP clan.

That's because you're ignorant and don't understand math. I could explain to a third grader how mail works. But you somehow are too stupid to understand it.

I know how email works but turning emails on 20 cards into $20,000 stretches it.

Ignorant people make stupid jokes when confronted with something they don't understand. Smart people try to understand. You are ignorant.

[jbjb]

Let me sum up my opinion of the Mdawg story this way:

It must be nice to be in a position to lose $100k in casinos. Very nice.

I'm sure the kids on this forum hope that someday they'll be as fortunate.

What difference does it make if the person loses that $100k in a casino or blows it on some other frivolous thing?

[kewlJ]

Let me sum up my opinion of the Mdawg story this way:

It must be nice to be in a position to lose $100k in casinos. Very nice.

Agreed...it must be nice.

However that is NOT what Mdog is and has been claiming for several years now. He claims he is winning hundreds of thousands, playing -EV games using strategies like betting into streaks, which is a form of progression betting. That is nonsence. Progression betting can not make a losing -EV game into a +Ev game.

Anyone with half a brain knows he is progressive betting, because if you read his reports, there are many days he is down significantly, starts betting bigger and ends up winning. THAT is progressive betting. But what he is NOT telling you is the days he is losing, starts betting bigger (known as chasing loses) and continues to lose and loses a far greater amount. THAT too is how progression betting works.

AND on top of that, he pushes the nonsense that he not only is a big longterm winning player (which he isn't because he isn't reporting the losses) but the casino comps him high end suites for almost a solid year on top of that.

Alan, you claim to be a reporter, who interviewed Presidents and Queens and so forth and I am not doubting that (I am a little surprised you don't have footage or pictures to back that up, but I am not really doubting you), so why as a reporter with reporter instincts, did you not head over to Cosmo or make some phone calls and interview the casino and hotel manager about the practice of comping a playing who has won hundreds of thousands or a million dollars, a suite for almost a solid year? I think we all know they would have laughed in your face. That is NOT the way Las Vegas or the casino industy works. They intice LOSING players to keep playing, not winning players or anyone who might be playing with an advantage.

[kewlJ]

Now here is a funny little side note. With Mdog suspended now 24 hours, the great fantasy/fiction adventure thread has dropped off the leader board.

because THAT is what this has always been about for Mdog. he brags about his thread with the most views. He keeps track of forum rating when he is posting and not posting. (who does this crap?) He strategically posts when the thread begins to fall on the leaderboard bumping it back up. Because THAT is what he really cares about. Making a mockery of WoV and mike. Always has been.

In the past Mdog had Marcus Clark to bump the thread during his absense, but now, there is no one and the thread fall off the board.

[MisterV]

To be clear, are you stipulating that 300 days or 300 sessions does not constitute the "long run", as referenced in your quote (below)?]

To my mind, the "short run" is just several or so sessions; when I think of playing in the "short run" that means the particular week or month I am playing or about to play.

It soon transitions to "medium-short run,' then "medium run," etc. before finally reaching the "long run," at least that's how I look at it; your view may well differ.

The "long run" is well beyond 300, but I cannot tell you exactly where it starts; could be over a player's life time, could be ten years of near-daily play, it varies.

[redietz]

Redietz when it comes down to it, I really don't care.
Nor do I care that you don't post your picks in advance.
I don't care.

No one asked you to care, Alan.

Now, if you owned a casino, don't you think it might be a bright idea to have a dozen MDawgs posting on all forums?

The "not posting pics in advance" is a funny kind of dig. So you don't think having plays published in advance of the games for 30 years in a publication available on newsstands across the country is "posting picks in advance?"

Never mind; it was a rhetorical question.


For the record, I posted baseball plays instructions on here a couple of weeks ago -- you must have missed it. Damned shame, it was either 7 1/2 or 8 1/2 games over .500 for the week, depending on your numbers (most bettors were 8 1/2 to the good). Sorry you missed it.

[kewlJ]

The "long run" is well beyond 300, but I cannot tell you exactly where it starts; could be over a player's life time, could be ten years of near-daily play, it varies.

It isn't really sessions or days MrV, it is trials. For blackjack rounds played, for something like video poker or slot, spins, rounds or hands on the machine.

Back when I was starting out, in mid 2000's there were two books out about the MIT blackjack team and one of the books, one of the math professors at MIT calculated what he called "Law of Large numbers" (silly name I know), but it was basically what longterm was for blackjack card counting, the point that there are enough trials to overcome any kind of unusual short term variance. The number he came up with for blackjack was 50,000 rounds or hands played.

Now for most of my career, I have played 70-80 thousand rounds per year (am playing less rounds last couple years). So 50,000 rounds is or was about 2/3 of a years results. And that number sort of worked for me for all those years. I had like 5 different losing periods lasting 6 months, or within the 50,000 round limit, but none lasting longer than the 50,000 trials.

Now the covid year of 2020 was a very unusual year. I didn't have a losing year but it was a very below expectation year. BUT with casinos closed 3 months and I stopped playing at the end of october, because covid cases were rising, so I never got above 50,000 rounds. So that number STILL holds up for me.

AND I do things that invite more variance than most players, like using different spreads and max bets at different properties and times, and still THAT number of 50,000 has held up. Maybe because the way I play the real number is higher than 50,000 rounds for me. Maybe it is 75,000 or 100,000 rounds that guarantees I will not fall subject to some kind of negtive short term variance run, but I can assure you it isn't a lifetime. That is just crazy talk.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj asks a good question: why don't I or why haven't I investigated MDawg's claims?

Gosh. I've been a little busy. And it's not my job.

But I did return to Vegas from SLC and early this morning played my $15 of free play at Red Rock. I cashed out $12 even and got a donut with my points.

At Red Rock they opened a gorgeous new high limit tables game area with a beautiful bar and full pay VP starting at $1 or $5 per hand.

Then to Suncoast for $5 of free play. Cashed out $1.72 playing 100 play Triple Double Bonus at $1 per play.

[kewlJ]

Now, if you owned a casino, don't you think it might be a bright idea to have a dozen MDawgs posting on all forums?

redietz, I gave some though to this early on in the Mdog thing. But there is something pretty revealing that tells what this is really about. You know that Mdawg posts at that true passages forum in addition to WoV, because I beleive you "visited" him there right? Well that forum is not a gambling forum. It is a forum for writers, writing "stories". And that is exactly what Mdawg is. And it is why he is concerned with views and ratings on forums and all that. he is writing a fiction story and I beleive for the purpose of mocking Wizard and WoV.

[MisterV]

But I did return to Vegas from SLC and early this morning played my $15 of free play at Red Rock. I cashed out $12 even and got a donut with my points.

"Winner winner, donut dinner."

Ain't returement grand?

BTW, how's Janet doing, is she still in Utah in hospital or back in sin city?

You say you don't care about some things, but obviously you still care about her; that's good, as we spin through life we benefit by having points of attachment.

[Alan Mendelson]

She's back also. She just stopped by my place to pick up some things that were in my car. She had another blood test this morning and is waiting for results.

[coach belly]

You've directly contradicted yourself again and again, because you obviously can't keep your lies straight.

sometime in Mid october, I announced that I would soon have access to this information.

in mid October, having gotten a look at his real gambling records, I released that he was not ahead 500k as stated but that his real records showed a 100k loss over those 7 months.

I think 2 days after his announcement is when I received the actual numbers via a phone call and posted the numbers.

Just days after I posted what his real results really were, he snuck this single line into the bottom of one of his posts at WoV.

[kewlJ]

Kewlj asks a good question: why don't I or why haven't I investigated MDawg's claims?

Gosh. I've been a little busy. And it's not my job.

But I did return to Vegas from SLC and early this morning played my $15 of free play at Red Rock. I cashed out $12 even and got a donut with my points.

At Red Rock they opened a gorgeous new high limit tables game area with a beautiful bar and full pay VP starting at $1 or $5 per hand.

Then to Suncoast for $5 of free play. Cashed out $1.72 playing 100 play Triple Double Bonus at $1 per play.

Alan congrats on the $13.72 return on your free play.

No it is not your JOB, but it is funny, if it is something or someone you want to try to prove wrong or discredit, you jump up at 3am run out and take blurry pictures. But in this case someone making claims (that can't be) that you support, like that he can win longterm playing -EV by using voodoo concepts and all of the sudden "it is not your job".

I will call that coach belly syndrome. If it is someone coach belly want to try to discredit, he will search and search for some statement (usually taken out of context) to attempt to discredit the person, but when it is someone he is supporting, like an Mdawg winning while playing -EV, not a peep out of him despite many contradictory statements available.

[coach belly]

some statement (usually taken out of context) to attempt to discredit the person

Your contradict yourself with your own quotes.

I don't need to attempt to discredit you, your discredit yourself with discombobulated lies and memory fails of what you lied about.

[kewlJ]

You've directly contradicted yourself again and again, because you obviously can't keep your lies straight.

I think 2 days after his announcement is when I received the actual numbers via a phone call and posted the numbers.

Just days after I posted what his real results really were, he snuck this single line into the bottom of one of his posts at WoV.

No contradiction at all. YOU ARE FLAILING and FAILING BADLY.

Once Mdawg realized that I had or would soon have his real results, which showed a loss, rather than a 500k win he had been falsely claiming, he panicked and snuck that single line try to make the record jive. If you remember Wizard made some kind of statement praising Mdawg for coming clean. Whether it was a couple days after I said I would soon have his records or a couple days after I announced the numbers, is irrelevant. As soon as I said I would soon have his real numbers, the Mdog titanic began sinking and he panicked.

[Treeshade]

I think Mdawg is more believable than the poster who says he makes $20,000 a week with free play from 20 players cards. And his claim is accepted by the AP clan.

That's because you're ignorant and don't understand math. I could explain to a third grader how mail works. But you somehow are too stupid to understand it.

I know how email works but turning emails on 20 cards into $20,000 stretches it.

Then your head would explode �� if you knew there are people making 30k plus every week for years doing the same thing. Fortunately most people lack the work ethic and mental fortitude to do this for long stretches. Keep debunking it so most people believe it’s not possible. That’s your greatest contribution to the AP community

[mcap]

I don’t understand the continued obsession with this, need for these threads. Like 98% of people know he’s full of shit, and the other 2% if they weren’t convinced the first 79 times it was explained aren’t going to be convinced on the 80th.