The Mdawg "challenge"

[PositiveVariance]

can you choose if you want +2 or -2 when betting or does it have to be one or the other?

Either way, it certainly seems as if that would be a good deal. I think I would have to say yes to that offer if there was no time to get the math or data, but somehow I get the feeling the data is going to show that it's not +EV.

I agree, I would initially take the wagers without doing research, but As you say I think it will somehow be -EV. However the same situation but with NBA, I believe would be +EV, even though 2 points in an NBA game as a percentage is “worth less” since NBA scores are much higher than NFL scores, so they have a lower value. Not a huge sports better but I believe .5 point would cost -010 (10 cents per dollar). It would seem a half point would bring you even after considering the juice. Without over analyzing it, seems to be a 1.5 point advantage per game. But I’m sure There is more to the situation, possibly something to do with it being the closing line. Mickey, I’m curious what the answer is since this would seem like an obvious +EV situation.

I have no idea how many games in a season cross key numbers. But my thinking is that your downside would be very little if you wrong in thinking it's +Ev, but your upside has huge potential if you're right. And of course, you could always find a way to make it +EV somehow once you got locked into the bet via other sports books, online bonuses etc. etc.

It would be funny if Mickey is trolling us and says, “Of course it’s +EV dummies!”
Here we are thinking there is going to be “more to it”, and it turns out to be just what it seems - An obvious +EV wager! lol