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Thread: The Mdawg "challenge"

  1. #41
    Of course JB & Jwoo are correct, but he is an interesting case study in BS and how the Wizard allows it.

    After being called out here (which he reads daily) and by Axel over there he realized he said something stupid. So now the answer is essentially that he gets special treatment at BJ because he plays Baccarat more (?) and because he now brings losing players the casinos way.

    So card counting and max spreads is now allowed in Vegas only for players who take the casino for hundreds of thousands at Baccarat. Maybe the casino is glad he is giving them a break from cleaning them out with his ability to “read the cards”, remember that claim.

    Basically he got caught so now the claim that can’t be proven is he has “friends” who are dumping large amounts at the slots. The guy is always trying to defend his lies and continue to get the attention he needs and craves.

  2. #42
    Given what we see about him as a gambler, I can only shudder to imagine what this bozo is like as an attorney.

    As if attorneys didn't already have a bad enough rep...
    What, Me Worry?

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by jdaewoo View Post
    Any semi sharp player can see how full of shit he is. People who aren't sharp believe all kinds of retarded shit when it comes to gambling, so who cares whether or not they believe him. WOZ is a forum for people who aren't sharp.

    Let cunts be cunts.
    The thing that first struck me when I went on forums after a lifetime of operating solo was how gambling-clueless people were, even people who were allegedly expert at something. I was shocked, because I was actually learning stuff about comps and player systems and best times to eat where, but I learned just about nothing about gambling in general and absolutely nothing about what I do best. It was stunning to realize all these know-somethings knew nothing. And all of these folks thought they were jacks of all gambling trades. It's ridiculous.

    When I ran into WoV promoting the use of a "parlay analyzer," that pretty much was the fat lady singing for me regarding "forum expertise."
    I can't for the life of me figure out why you are so stuck on debunking parlays. They are a legit way to gain an advantage in situations where you normally couldn't. There are situations where parlays can achieve a much higher % and earn than straight betting, even if you were a good handicapper.

    A parlay analyzer is no different from a VP, keno BJ, craps, or roulette analyzer, they are tools that help one determine percentages.

    Anyways, who are these know-somethings who knew nothing and who is claiming to be an expert at what? Are you an expert at sports betting?

    I'm an expert at college football betting. There are no "sports betting experts" just like there are no doctors who do brain surgery on Monday and deliver children on Saturday and treat bunions on Sunday.

    Regarding parlays, you have got to be kidding me. Outside of the occasional promo where parlay odds are pumped up beyond what they should be,
    parlay betting off the board is usually idiotic. Now I am talking off the board, not off frozen lines on parlay cards. And I am talking parlays that do not have OPEN components. Parlay CARDS and OPEN parlays are betable. But in neither case does one need a parlay calculator.

    If I have to explain why off the board parlays are generally idiotic, you're beyond salvation, but I'll do it anyway.

    Lines move. I know. Huge inside info. Lines vary from book to book and from minute to minute. Lines especially move massively in the two sports that have historically proven most beatable -- college football and college hoops. Some would argue that these are the ONLY beatable sports.

    If you are betting parlays off the board at one place and time, you are not getting the optimal numbers for the games involved 99% of the time. That use of non-optimal numbers has a cost, and that cost is not figured into any formula employed by a "parlay calculator." I submit that the cost of employing non-optimal numbers exceeds any angle advantages people think they have by employing parlays.

    And not just that. Betting parlays off the board at one place at one time teaches two fundamental bad habits -- impulsivity (I must bet it now) and laziness (why check numbers 24/7 week-long at every location when I can just bet a parlay using my parlay calculator?).

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Basically he got caught so now the claim that can’t be proven is he has “friends” who are dumping large amounts at the slots. The guy is always trying to defend his lies and continue to get the attention he needs and craves.
    This story has always been that he is losing more than he is winning, but just not reporting the losing to us. Now we have it.

    The "friends" dumping large amounts into slots (that Mdawg has never mentioned before) are him and his wife or GF, whatever she is. They lose far more playing slots than he "wins" playing blackjack and baccarat.

    On top of that they lose far more at slots, I still think he is only reporting some of his table games sessions (the winning sessions) to us..

    But either way. THIS now explains the comps....over a years worth of suites and food. If that is something that appeals to wealthy people, drop a couple million and receive high end comped suites, food and beverage, for a year, so be it. Too bad he can't be honest because I would love to know exactly how much one has to dump to get what he has gotten comp wise over the last 16 months? Just for curiosity sake.

    One way or another the truth always comes out with these guys and usually it is because they can't help but hang themselves.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  5. #45
    Is it REALLY SO hard to believe that mdog has been winning large amounts of money consistently for years while staying complimentary in Las Vegas suites for indefinite amounts of time.

  6. #46
    When Mdawg says "I'd say that some blackjack players have no idea what is tolerated and what is not. Because they haven't tried", he obviously is referring to me. Well guess what I do know what is tolerated and what isn't from trial and error, both my own and that of other players that I network with. THAT is how I have come to identify almost exactly what levels are better tolerated at what days and times. THAT is what experience is and I have been at this in Vegas for 14 years now, so I do know what I am talking about.

    And while amounts I win, may be modest compared to the amounts he claims to win, I have never had to go back and change the story to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars like he did last fall, when in one sentence the 500k he claimed to have won for months disappeared. That one sentence was: "Additionally wizard and I went over my records and I am about even for this trip". That was really his Newell RV moment that he was never able to recover from.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 07-20-2022 at 12:52 PM.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  7. #47
    The other very revealing moment occurred at the end of his last trip. Mdawg had been running this "challenge" as his signature for a year. Remember the clause at the end of that challenge....for as long as this trip lasts.

    When not one but two different people (I will leave it to them to decide if they want to identify themselves) were ready to accept that challenge because they both had ways to prove he had not won what he claims, what did Mdawg do? He abruptly ended his trip and headed back to California. And of course that long running signature involving the challenge magically disappeared.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Of course JB & Jwoo are correct, but he is an interesting case study in BS and how the Wizard allows it.

    After being called out here (which he reads daily) and by Axel over there he realized he said something stupid. So now the answer is essentially that he gets special treatment at BJ because he plays Baccarat more (?) and because he now brings losing players the casinos way.

    So card counting and max spreads is now allowed in Vegas only for players who take the casino for hundreds of thousands at Baccarat. Maybe the casino is glad he is giving them a break from cleaning them out with his ability to “read the cards”, remember that claim.

    Basically he got caught so now the claim that can’t be proven is he has “friends” who are dumping large amounts at the slots. The guy is always trying to defend his lies and continue to get the attention he needs and craves.
    As I said before, there is somthing more going on than the simple fact that MD is a high roller with lots of money. He has said something about referring players before, but I dont think anyone picked up on it.

    MD Said... " Other reasons may have to do with all the high rollers I have referred to the casinos, that are like so many nickels and dimes I carry around in my pocket that I hand out at will. Pretty much all of these referred players are consistent losers, as many of them stick to high limit slots only. I actually try to get some of them to play table games, but that mostly just want to have a drink and zone out in front of a slot machine."

    This would explain all the pictures of suits, comps, invites, offers, long periods of time spend in vegas, comp information, and more.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post

    The thing that first struck me when I went on forums after a lifetime of operating solo was how gambling-clueless people were, even people who were allegedly expert at something. I was shocked, because I was actually learning stuff about comps and player systems and best times to eat where, but I learned just about nothing about gambling in general and absolutely nothing about what I do best. It was stunning to realize all these know-somethings knew nothing. And all of these folks thought they were jacks of all gambling trades. It's ridiculous.

    When I ran into WoV promoting the use of a "parlay analyzer," that pretty much was the fat lady singing for me regarding "forum expertise."
    I can't for the life of me figure out why you are so stuck on debunking parlays. They are a legit way to gain an advantage in situations where you normally couldn't. There are situations where parlays can achieve a much higher % and earn than straight betting, even if you were a good handicapper.

    A parlay analyzer is no different from a VP, keno BJ, craps, or roulette analyzer, they are tools that help one determine percentages.

    Anyways, who are these know-somethings who knew nothing and who is claiming to be an expert at what? Are you an expert at sports betting?

    I'm an expert at college football betting. There are no "sports betting experts" just like there are no doctors who do brain surgery on Monday and deliver children on Saturday and treat bunions on Sunday.

    Regarding parlays, you have got to be kidding me. Outside of the occasional promo where parlay odds are pumped up beyond what they should be,
    parlay betting off the board is usually idiotic. Now I am talking off the board, not off frozen lines on parlay cards. And I am talking parlays that do not have OPEN components. Parlay CARDS and OPEN parlays are betable. But in neither case does one need a parlay calculator.

    If I have to explain why off the board parlays are generally idiotic, you're beyond salvation, but I'll do it anyway.

    Lines move. I know. Huge inside info. Lines vary from book to book and from minute to minute. Lines especially move massively in the two sports that have historically proven most beatable -- college football and college hoops. Some would argue that these are the ONLY beatable sports.

    If you are betting parlays off the board at one place and time, you are not getting the optimal numbers for the games involved 99% of the time. That use of non-optimal numbers has a cost, and that cost is not figured into any formula employed by a "parlay calculator." I submit that the cost of employing non-optimal numbers exceeds any angle advantages people think they have by employing parlays.

    And not just that. Betting parlays off the board at one place at one time teaches two fundamental bad habits -- impulsivity (I must bet it now) and laziness (why check numbers 24/7 week-long at every location when I can just bet a parlay using my parlay calculator?).
    Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

    I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I can't for the life of me figure out why you are so stuck on debunking parlays. They are a legit way to gain an advantage in situations where you normally couldn't. There are situations where parlays can achieve a much higher % and earn than straight betting, even if you were a good handicapper.

    A parlay analyzer is no different from a VP, keno BJ, craps, or roulette analyzer, they are tools that help one determine percentages.

    Anyways, who are these know-somethings who knew nothing and who is claiming to be an expert at what? Are you an expert at sports betting?

    I'm an expert at college football betting. There are no "sports betting experts" just like there are no doctors who do brain surgery on Monday and deliver children on Saturday and treat bunions on Sunday.

    Regarding parlays, you have got to be kidding me. Outside of the occasional promo where parlay odds are pumped up beyond what they should be,
    parlay betting off the board is usually idiotic. Now I am talking off the board, not off frozen lines on parlay cards. And I am talking parlays that do not have OPEN components. Parlay CARDS and OPEN parlays are betable. But in neither case does one need a parlay calculator.

    If I have to explain why off the board parlays are generally idiotic, you're beyond salvation, but I'll do it anyway.

    Lines move. I know. Huge inside info. Lines vary from book to book and from minute to minute. Lines especially move massively in the two sports that have historically proven most beatable -- college football and college hoops. Some would argue that these are the ONLY beatable sports.

    If you are betting parlays off the board at one place and time, you are not getting the optimal numbers for the games involved 99% of the time. That use of non-optimal numbers has a cost, and that cost is not figured into any formula employed by a "parlay calculator." I submit that the cost of employing non-optimal numbers exceeds any angle advantages people think they have by employing parlays.

    And not just that. Betting parlays off the board at one place at one time teaches two fundamental bad habits -- impulsivity (I must bet it now) and laziness (why check numbers 24/7 week-long at every location when I can just bet a parlay using my parlay calculator?).
    Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

    I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

    In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

  11. #51
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post


    I'm an expert at college football betting. There are no "sports betting experts" just like there are no doctors who do brain surgery on Monday and deliver children on Saturday and treat bunions on Sunday.

    Regarding parlays, you have got to be kidding me. Outside of the occasional promo where parlay odds are pumped up beyond what they should be,
    parlay betting off the board is usually idiotic. Now I am talking off the board, not off frozen lines on parlay cards. And I am talking parlays that do not have OPEN components. Parlay CARDS and OPEN parlays are betable. But in neither case does one need a parlay calculator.

    If I have to explain why off the board parlays are generally idiotic, you're beyond salvation, but I'll do it anyway.

    Lines move. I know. Huge inside info. Lines vary from book to book and from minute to minute. Lines especially move massively in the two sports that have historically proven most beatable -- college football and college hoops. Some would argue that these are the ONLY beatable sports.

    If you are betting parlays off the board at one place and time, you are not getting the optimal numbers for the games involved 99% of the time. That use of non-optimal numbers has a cost, and that cost is not figured into any formula employed by a "parlay calculator." I submit that the cost of employing non-optimal numbers exceeds any angle advantages people think they have by employing parlays.

    And not just that. Betting parlays off the board at one place at one time teaches two fundamental bad habits -- impulsivity (I must bet it now) and laziness (why check numbers 24/7 week-long at every location when I can just bet a parlay using my parlay calculator?).
    Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

    I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

    In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

    Or considerably less relevant, would be more accurate. I haven't even availed myself of any of the bonus opportunities thus far. I'll wait until they come to me with offers I consider optimal. I mean, really, why do you think your best use-of-bonus option might be parlays off the board?

    I have no problem with people relying on gimmickry to win money betting sports. My hope is that they don't dabble when the gimmickry ends, because that is the goal of the gimmickry being offered. If Stu Ungar lost his ass betting sports, if Phil Mickelson lost his ass betting sports, both being sucked into it, I guess the run-of-the-mill AP has nothing to worry about, eh? Everybody is psychologically bulletproof in AP-land or so the story goes.

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

    I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

    In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

    Or considerably less relevant, would be more accurate. I haven't even availed myself of any of the bonus opportunities thus far. I'll wait until they come to me with offers I consider optimal. I mean, really, why do you think your best use-of-bonus option might be parlays off the board?

    I have no problem with people relying on gimmickry to win money betting sports. My hope is that they don't dabble when the gimmickry ends, because that is the goal of the gimmickry being offered. If Stu Ungar lost his ass betting sports, if Phil Mickelson lost his ass betting sports, both being sucked into it, I guess the run-of-the-mill AP has nothing to worry about, eh? Everybody is psychologically bulletproof in AP-land or so the story goes.
    Let me ask you this... Are you retired, lost your touch, and dont really bet much anymore? Perhaps you are not really into making money for your guys or yourself?

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

    I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

    In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

    Or considerably less relevant, would be more accurate. I haven't even availed myself of any of the bonus opportunities thus far. I'll wait until they come to me with offers I consider optimal. I mean, really, why do you think your best use-of-bonus option might be parlays off the board?

    I have no problem with people relying on gimmickry to win money betting sports. My hope is that they don't dabble when the gimmickry ends, because that is the goal of the gimmickry being offered. If Stu Ungar lost his ass betting sports, if Phil Mickelson lost his ass betting sports, both being sucked into it, I guess the run-of-the-mill AP has nothing to worry about, eh? Everybody is psychologically bulletproof in AP-land or so the story goes.

    The bolded nicely sums it up.

    Real sports betting is handicapping, everything else is mere gimmickry.

  14. #54
    I'm pretty sure 100% of my sports bets in the past 5 years have been parlays. Not a lot but 20k at least in wagers. Parlays are sometimes needed because of properties they have or promotions they fit inside.

    Someone gave me a book where parlays on nickel or dime lines has 0 juice. I don't know anything about sports but I can beat 0 juice.

    I'm fairly certain all these bets were positive expectations or expected to be by a quite rational and mathematical based approach.

    Sports betting isn't my thing though.

    Actually nah there were 1-2 straight wagers for my college football team for fun.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  15. #55
    Redietz avoided answering this question I put to him specifically. So I will ask it of everyone. Here's the scenario.

    It's the NFL. If someone propositioned you to FLAT BETTING (same wager every game) every game every week for the entire season. All bets made in the same book. And they offered you a 2 point discount on the closing line of every game. By 2 point discount I mean if the line closes at -7 you get the game at -5.

    Would you take the bet?

    And conversely, if they offered you 2 more points than the closing line would you take it? By 2 more points I mean if the line closes at +7 you get +9.

    Remember you have to bet every game every week for the entire year.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post


    In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

    Or considerably less relevant, would be more accurate. I haven't even availed myself of any of the bonus opportunities thus far. I'll wait until they come to me with offers I consider optimal. I mean, really, why do you think your best use-of-bonus option might be parlays off the board?

    I have no problem with people relying on gimmickry to win money betting sports. My hope is that they don't dabble when the gimmickry ends, because that is the goal of the gimmickry being offered. If Stu Ungar lost his ass betting sports, if Phil Mickelson lost his ass betting sports, both being sucked into it, I guess the run-of-the-mill AP has nothing to worry about, eh? Everybody is psychologically bulletproof in AP-land or so the story goes.

    The bolded nicely sums it up.

    Real sports betting is handicapping, everything else is mere gimmickry.
    Yeah, who the fuck wants a mathematical 25%+ edge when they can scamdicapp a theoretical few percent.

  17. #57
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Redietz avoided answering this question I put to him specifically. So I will ask it of everyone. Here's the scenario.

    It's the NFL. If someone propositioned you to FLAT BETTING (same wager every game) every game every week for the entire season. All bets made in the same book. And they offered you a 2 point discount on the closing line of every game. By 2 point discount I mean if the line closes at -7 you get the game at -5.

    Would you take the bet?

    And conversely, if they offered you 2 more points than the closing line would you take it? By 2 more points I mean if the line closes at +7 you get +9.

    Remember you have to bet every game every week for the entire year.
    can you choose if you want +2 or -2 when betting or does it have to be one or the other?

    Either way, it certainly seems as if that would be a good deal. I think I would have to say yes to that offer if there was no time to get the math or data, but somehow I get the feeling the data is going to show that it's not +EV.
    Last edited by AxelWolf; 07-21-2022 at 07:57 AM.

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Redietz avoided answering this question I put to him specifically. So I will ask it of everyone. Here's the scenario.

    It's the NFL. If someone propositioned you to FLAT BETTING (same wager every game) every game every week for the entire season. All bets made in the same book. And they offered you a 2 point discount on the closing line of every game. By 2 point discount I mean if the line closes at -7 you get the game at -5.

    Would you take the bet?

    And conversely, if they offered you 2 more points than the closing line would you take it? By 2 more points I mean if the line closes at +7 you get +9.

    Remember you have to bet every game every week for the entire year.
    can you choose if you want +2 or -2 when betting or does it have to be one or the other?

    Either way, it certainly seems as if that would be a good deal. I think I would have to say yes to that offer if there was no time to get the math or data, but somehow I get the feeling the data is going to show that it's not +EV.
    Can you take both bets on the same game?
    Keep your friends close, keep your drinks closer...

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Redietz avoided answering this question I put to him specifically. So I will ask it of everyone. Here's the scenario.

    It's the NFL. If someone propositioned you to FLAT BETTING (same wager every game) every game every week for the entire season. All bets made in the same book. And they offered you a 2 point discount on the closing line of every game. By 2 point discount I mean if the line closes at -7 you get the game at -5.

    Would you take the bet?

    And conversely, if they offered you 2 more points than the closing line would you take it? By 2 more points I mean if the line closes at +7 you get +9.

    Remember you have to bet every game every week for the entire year.
    can you choose if you want +2 or -2 when betting or does it have to be one or the other?

    Either way, it certainly seems as if that would be a good deal. I think I would have to say yes to that offer if there was no time to get the math or data, but somehow I get the feeling the data is going to show that it's not +EV.

    I agree, I would initially take the wagers without doing research, but As you say I think it will somehow be -EV. However the same situation but with NBA, I believe would be +EV, even though 2 points in an NBA game as a percentage is “worth less” since NBA scores are much higher than NFL scores, so they have a lower value. Not a huge sports better but I believe .5 point would cost -010 (10 cents per dollar). It would seem a half point would bring you even after considering the juice. Without over analyzing it, seems to be a 1.5 point advantage per game. But I’m sure There is more to the situation, possibly something to do with it being the closing line. Mickey, I’m curious what the answer is since this would seem like an obvious +EV situation.
    Last edited by PositiveVariance; 07-21-2022 at 09:55 AM.

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by PositiveVariance View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Redietz avoided answering this question I put to him specifically. So I will ask it of everyone. Here's the scenario.

    It's the NFL. If someone propositioned you to FLAT BETTING (same wager every game) every game every week for the entire season. All bets made in the same book. And they offered you a 2 point discount on the closing line of every game. By 2 point discount I mean if the line closes at -7 you get the game at -5.

    Would you take the bet?

    And conversely, if they offered you 2 more points than the closing line would you take it? By 2 more points I mean if the line closes at +7 you get +9.

    Remember you have to bet every game every week for the entire year.
    can you choose if you want +2 or -2 when betting or does it have to be one or the other?

    Either way, it certainly seems as if that would be a good deal. I think I would have to say yes to that offer if there was no time to get the math or data, but somehow I get the feeling the data is going to show that it's not +EV.

    I agree, I would initially take the wagers without doing research, but As you say I think it will somehow be -EV. However the same situation but with NBA, I believe would be +EV, even though 2 points in an NBA game as a percentage is “worth less” since NBA scores are much higher than NFL scores, so they have a lower value. Not a huge sports better but I believe .5 point would cost -010 (10 cents per dollar). It would seem a half point would bring you even after considering the juice. Without over analyzing it, seems to be a 1.5 point advantage per game. But I’m sure There is more to the situation, possibly something to do with it being the closing line. Mickey, I’m curious what the answer is since this would seem like an obvious +EV situation.
    I have no idea how many games in a season cross key numbers. But my thinking is that your downside would be very little if you wrong in thinking it's +Ev, but your upside has huge potential if you're right. And of course, you could always find a way to make it +EV somehow once you got locked into the bet via other sports books, online bonuses etc. etc.

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