Skill vs Luck in Video Poker

[arcimede$]

Ignorance.

Edited to add: Video poker is a one dimensional game. The player vs the Machine. In Live poker, its the player against all of the other players at the table which can be 8 or 9 at the start of the hand. Do the math. LOL

Live poker is slow, slow, slow by comparison. In VP a good player has upwards of a 1000 decisions to make in an hour. How many hands do you get in in an hour? 10 or less? And even then you fold on many of them. Even given you make several decisions on a hand it looks like you're a couple of orders of magnitude behind video poker.

"Do the math" ... what was it you said about ignorance?

[Alan Mendelson]

I didnt know you were such an action player, Arc? Are you addicted to the action? Do you need speed? Danger? LOL

Everybody has their own "best game." Some people play chess -- by mail --- and make one move a week. To each his own.

But once again you try to change the direction of the discussion. The question is: how much skill and how much luck in the games? With live poker being a more complex game it does take more skill. In fact, one of the skills is to play a slow, steady pace so that your opponents don't see you "rush" with a strong hand. When you play a slow, steady pace you are more likely to trap your opponents. Oh, that's another skill you don't need in video poker. LOL

[arcimede$]

Nice try Alan but you're still looking at 1000+ decisions to maybe 20 each hour. Yawn, how do you stay awake?

I will submit that some VP games can be boring too. That is why I like OEJs so much. It's in a class by itself.

[Alan Mendelson]

To each his own, Arc. But I am very comfortable sitting in a poker tournament for five or six hours, playing perhaps one out of five hands or even fewer. Heck, I've sat in a tournament and didnt play a hand (except for my blinds) for two hours.

the biggest $$ tournament I won was at the Bike a couple of years ago -- it was seven hours.

the longest tournament I ever played in was at Caesars about two years ago. It started at 10pm and we were heads up at the final table at 4am. And didn't finish till 8-AM. That was the tourney that I got quad aces in and TWO royals -- all in the same tourney.... and finished second. At 4am when we were heads up, I had the other guy outchipped four-to-one and I offered to chop. He said "I came here from West Virginia to win." So we played on and he came back to win. At the time, that was the longest overnight tourney they ever had at Caesars. All of the tourney dealers had been released, and the last dealer was with us non stop for four hours. NO breaks at the final table.

[arcimede$]

My point, Alan, is there are many dimensions to complexity.

There's no doubt that OEJs is far more complex than JOB, for example. Does that mean a OEJs player is automatically more skillful? Of course not. It may have taken more time and effort to learn the game but it really doesn't tell you much about the skill set of either player.

I think this is also true comparing live poker and VP. Both require there own sets of skills and to be successful one needs to learn those skills. Is one player automatically more skillful that the other? No, just like apples are different than oranges.

[slingshot]

I'm with Arci, here. I'd go bonkers sitting there like that.

[Rob.Singer]

This is a dangerous thread. There's a casino run by a tribe up here on the central Oregon coast called Chinook Winds. It's an attractive property overlooking the ocean from atop a little hill. I don't play Indian machine as a rule, but because of this thread and the fact that there's a lot of advertising going on about the Chinook Winds newly expanded poker room, I thought I'd go look at it early yesterday morning and perhaps play some low stakes for an hour or so because that's all I can take. I didn't expect to win since I'm not a seasoned player.

That was an expensive mistake, and not because I lost because I never did play. On the way in from the parking lot I wasn't paying attention, and I stepped on a large rock that tripped me up and sent me head first into the sharp metal corner of one of those parking lot light poles that have large cement-encrusted metal bases. It literally put a hole in the top of my head and knocked me out. I woke up to the smell of a paramedics's smelling salts. My wife wasn't with me so they had to call her.

Bottom line, I got fourteen stitches and a concussion out of this adventure. I just was released from the hospital and can't do much for a few days. It gets worse. I just turned 63 so I don't have Medicaid yet. The gap type insurance we carry only covers $2000 for accidents. I had to pay $4600. So thank you whoever started this thread!

[slingshot]

This is a dangerous thread. There's a casino run by a tribe up here on the central Oregon coast called Chinook Winds. It's an attractive property overlooking the ocean from atop a little hill. I don't play Indian machine as a rule, but because of this thread and the fact that there's a lot of advertising going on about the Chinook Winds newly expanded poker room, I thought I'd go look at it early yesterday morning and perhaps play some low stakes for an hour or so because that's all I can take. I didn't expect to win since I'm not a seasoned player.

That was an expensive mistake, and not because I lost because I never did play. On the way in from the parking lot I wasn't paying attention, and I stepped on a large rock that tripped me up and sent me head first into the sharp metal corner of one of those parking lot light poles that have large cement-encrusted metal bases. It literally put a hole in the top of my head and knocked me out. I woke up to the smell of a paramedics's smelling salts. My wife wasn't with me so they had to call her.

Bottom line, I got fourteen stitches and a concussion out of this adventure. I just was released from the hospital and can't do much for a few days. It gets worse. I just turned 63 so I don't have Medicaid yet. The gap type insurance we carry only covers $2000 for accidents. I had to pay $4600. So thank you whoever started this thread!

Dang! Glad you're still around-beats the alternative. Fast recovery.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, I am very sorry to hear of the accident. Is there an accident report? I suggest you get a copy and consult with someone about the rock. And I started the thread.

[redietz]

That's a bad one. Watch yourself -- as those concussion symptoms can come and go. Hope you recover quickly.

Stuff like this can happen anytime anywhere.

[Rob.Singer]

That's a bad one. Watch yourself -- as those concussion symptoms can come and go. Hope you recover quickly.

Stuff like this can happen anytime anywhere.

Thanks guys. I have a nice hard head that now has a dent on top where I'm balding. I'm usually very careful because I walk a lot, but not this time as I was admiring the early AM view out over the water.

I did get a report number but haven't looked to see if it's available online yet. The resort people have already talked to my wife about anything they can do, a free meal/room, etc. I'll probably take them up on the dinner but I'm not looking for anything else unless they offer to reimburse part or all of the medical bill. That would be nice, but I'm not the type to ASK for money when it really wasn't their fault.

Redietz I was talking to my friend on the Cape from my hospital bed phone last night during the Celtics game. He was complaining about the lousy weather but we were going a little crazy over the win. I didn't have a tv and my smartphone battery was dead so he did the play-by-play on the phone. One more to go.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, I'm glad you are doing OK and have your spirits. But, are there a lot of rocks in the parking lot? Are rocks normally in the parking lot? Will they ask you to sign a release when they give you a "free dinner"?

[arcimede$]

I wondered what happened to backsider yesterday. Now I know.

Be very careful with head injuries. A second one very close to another one often lead to terrible problems. Take it easy for several months.

[Rob.Singer]

I wondered what happened to backsider yesterday. Now I know.

Be very careful with head injuries. A second one very close to another one often lead to terrible problems. Take it easy for several months.

I'm not reading the meaning of last part. And is the first sentence applicable somehow?

Alan, I'll be going back to try out their live poker as soon as I can. The lot is paved and it generally wouldn't have rocks. I'll see what they say about it when I call in response to their offer.

[redietz]

Back in my youth, I was involved in a brutal collision in a basketball game that wound up with somebody's teeth in my head, and I have a nice triangular dent that is plainly visible now that I have gone with the shaved dome look. If anybody asks you, just make up a dramatic story about a knife fight.

On the more serious note, I don't know if you've had concussions before, but you get a weird nausea that is disconnected and different from the usual nausea from food poisoning or too much alcohol and such. It can be disconcerting because you feel nauseous, but it's not coming from your stomach, and if you experience that recurrently, get yourself back in the hospital.

Rest up.

[Rob.Singer]

I did have a concussion in my 20's and I know exactly what you're talking about. That's why I can't figure out why all these football players cry when they aren't allowed to play for a while afterwards. Maybe that's what arci is talking about--a possible second concussion before full recovery.

[Vegas Vic]

Vic,

I had some discussions back in the 80's with cardroom managers -- the ones I spoke with felt the house take was unbeatable, so they were never concerned with how good players were. Basically, in limit hold 'em, if a half dozen guys sat down, five to six hours later the house had extracted the equivalent of one player's stake. That was the gist of what I learned, and I doubt if it's changed much since then.

Now at high stakes, you pay by the clock, so that's different. And no limit may or may not be different. Any thoughts, Alan?

Thanks for mention this. I had forgotten about it (not a live poker player, you see). The rake, which generates the needed revenue, basically neutralizes the skill factor among players from the casino viewpoint. In VP, there are 2 ways to neutralize the skill of players: lower the pay tables or 86 them. Since both of these casino actions are a reality, it supports the contention that VP skill is also a reality, and one that casinos take seriously.

But back to the basic question of skill vs luck: for those who lean heavily on the luck factor being so predominant in VP ("the RNG does it all"), isn't it still a matter of luck in live poker to get good cards from the dealer or a matter of luck when you out bluff your opponent? I know that bad luck is often a crutch whenever a bad beat takes place. So if bad luck is part of the nomenclature, good luck is too.

Quantifying skill vs luck in either game is pointless. They exist in both games.

[Alan Mendelson]

Vegas Vic wrote: "isn't it still a matter of luck in live poker to get good cards from the dealer or a matter of luck when you out bluff your opponent? I know that bad luck is often a crutch whenever a bad beat takes place. "

Yes, it is a matter of luck what cards you are dealt and what cards are given to other players as well as to the table in the case of community cards. The skill is what you do with the cards you have. If you are bluffing and no one "calls your bluff" then it is either skill because you made a convincing show of strength or it is luck that no one called and everyone fell for your act. However, you can't bluff a video poker machine. You also can't make a big raise to get the VP machine to fold, and those are some of the skills of live poker.

Vegas Vic also wrote: "The rake, which generates the needed revenue, basically neutralizes the skill factor among players from the casino viewpoint."

Whoa Nellie... the casino card rooms don't care if you win. You're not winning the casino's money. In ALL cases you are winning the money from other players. Even when you win a bad beat jackpot you are winning money contributed by other players. The casino "rake" only pays for the dealers, the building, the lights, the AC, and gives the casino profit on every hand played. But when you "win" you never hurt the casino.

By the way, at many casinos you cannot take out markers or have a line of credit in the poker rooms because there is no incentive for the casino to lend you money. Since there is no profit from your betting, except in the rake, giving markers (loans) does nothing to help casino profits.

[Rob.Singer]

Can't you take cash from a marker at the cage, then go into the poker room with it?

Before I left Pahrump I saw on LV TV where the state expects to approve online poker rooms by the end of the year. There's a lot of ongoing frantic work to meet the state's " guaranteed secure & fair play" initiatives. That's all I watched. Have you been following this Alan? Is this something you from another state can play, or is it just for Nevadans? It may be something I'll try for the months I'm there, but I would want to sit down and have a good strategy discussion with you first.

[redietz]

Watch yourself, Rob. It's easy to cheat and cheating is rampant. For example, a bunch of friends in different locations sit down at a virtual table and skype each other as to what cards each has. In hold 'em, that's a devastating advantage. Or people open multiple accounts and use different IPs, but can see each identity's cards and coordinate them. Or team chip dumping late in tournament play. And robo play -- the bots themselves aren't scary; it's the fact the bots can share info with each other, which leads to situations like the skype play.

That's what the states are concerned with, and I see it being very difficult to prevent. Maybe impossible.