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Thread: Skill vs Luck in Video Poker

  1. #161
    Ha! Arci claims to have played the same "positive EV game" at the same Indian casino for years, yet now he says the "edge" is "not constant". What is it--the free slot club fluff you previously claimed not to count changes in perceived value each visit?

    Yawn....I tire of catching you in your lies. When are you gonna learn you just can't keep making it up on the go and not get your toe caught in your own trap?

  2. #162
    I see wheels can't tell the difference between constant and positive. Not surprised given the complete lack of mathematical skills he displays on a regular basis. My edge is always positive, it just isn't constant because cash promotions change, freeplay changes, etc. However, since my base game is over 100% the edge is ALWAYS positive.

    So, once again wheels makes a complete fool out of himself. And people wonder why I call him a d......

  3. #163
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    No additional information was needed, Arc. Because it makes no difference if we are talking about a video poker game with a negative expectation or a positive expectation. When it comes to investment and security there is no comparison between the return on your money and the return of your money.

    If you are investing your money the better investment is always the investment that will guarantee the return of your money. NO casino game will guarantee the return of your money.

    The US Government has never defaulted on a bond. I want to make it clear to my readers and viewers who have followed me for more than 35 years on TV and for longer than that on radio and when I wrote for Barron's and the financial press do not -- repeat -- do not allow yourself to be duped by anyone who claims that they can sell you a system, a technique, a method, or a bet that can guarantee you the return of your money in any casino game or that any casino game will offer you more security than an investment in U.S. government insured bonds or the debt obligations of the U.S. government.
    There are no guarantees, Alan. All our money is always at risk to some degree. We trade off risk vs. reward whatever we do. Sorry if you don't like the answer. Reality isn't always pretty.

  4. #164
    If arci really thought he could do better with "positive" games over other investments, he'd take some of that whopping retirement income and play higher limit games. Oh, what's that? They're all in Las Vegas? I forgot for a second, arci already tried that and not only did he lose his little duplex which he thought would also be a GREAT INVESTMENT , he was slapped into the ultra-exciting life he has now!

    Them damn US Gov't. bonds. if only they were a little more reliable.....

  5. #165
    Alan made the question tricky by asking which provides "the better return" versus "the safer return." "Better" seems to me to be defined by higher average return -- so for most negative EV players, the bonds win. For positive EV players, the answer is debatable when it comes to "better."

    Now "safer" is a whole different category. "Safer" refers to less risk of ruin. I don't think the government is likely to fail, but then we have to ask the question, which government provides "safer" bonds -- the Netherlands, for example, or the US. Canada or the US? The US is at risk for major earthquakes along the western fault line, is more at risk for nuclear terrorist attack, and so on, which means its bonds are probably on shakier ground. Then we can expand the question to which is "better" also. If other countries have bonds that have never defaulted, then certainly we need to consider those bonds as possibly superior.

    We need to work on definitions in this forum -- too many slipshod answers based on imprecise definitions.

  6. #166
    Another big problem with the US bonds is the risk of serious inflation brought about by our debt problems. It wouldn't take much to see double digit inflation for several years (or even hyper-inflation). The value of the money in the bonds would drop considerably. Your principle may be safe but the net result could be a big loss in buying power. Of course, that would affect anything cash related. Bank accounts would be just as bad. Even cash itself would start losing value quickly.

    PS. I see our resident kook is back lying again. His jealousy over my winning every year I wintered in Vegas drips off him like the mucus of a bad cold. Green and slimy.

  7. #167
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Another big problem with the US bonds is the risk of serious inflation brought about by our debt problems. It wouldn't take much to see double digit inflation for several years (or even hyper-inflation). The value of the money in the bonds would drop considerably. Your principle may be safe but the net result could be a big loss in buying power. Of course, that would affect anything cash related. Bank accounts would be just as bad. Even cash itself would start losing value quickly.

    PS. I see our resident kook is back lying again. His jealousy over my winning every year I wintered in Vegas drips off him like the mucus of a bad cold. Green and slimy.
    You somehow forgot to also lie about how fabulous your life turned out. Hmmm....maybe that was on purpose. Who'd blame you?

  8. #168
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Another big problem with the US bonds is the risk of serious inflation brought about by our debt problems. It wouldn't take much to see double digit inflation for several years (or even hyper-inflation). The value of the money in the bonds would drop considerably. Your principle may be safe but the net result could be a big loss in buying power. Of course, that would affect anything cash related. Bank accounts would be just as bad. Even cash itself would start losing value quickly.
    This is absurd. It's as if you are saying that your video poker bankroll and winnings would be immune to the impact of inflation. On the other hand, with inflation, you would be paying back your markers and credit card loans, and second mortgage with cheaper dollars.

  9. #169
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    This is absurd. It's as if you are saying that your video poker bankroll and winnings would be immune to the impact of inflation.
    I said no such thing. You're the one that has been trying to make comparisons between VP and investments. It's really apples and oranges. VP is for income generation. Investments can be for either income or safety. If one opts for safety then it won't generate much, if any, income. High edge VP can generate a lot of income while still being very safe. However, one individual can't play enough to generate a lot of income so the amount allotted can not be very high.

  10. #170
    Arc, what did you mean by this comment??

    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Only wheels could believe the US economy is a better investment choice than a solid, high edge VP play. I guess that's why he says the ridiculous things he does. Sounds like he'll be voting for Obama.

  11. #171
    Alan, I was just taking a little jab at wheels. He's a died in the wool conservative so I was having a little fun.

    However, the economy is teetering right now. Just as likely to head into another recession as not. And, if the EU falls apart it could turn into an outright depression. The dominoes are set to fall. All it will take is something to set them off.

  12. #172
    Alan, give arci a little space here, please. You know how he is in his declining years with nothing but a good serving of seasoned polenta and 10 hours a day on the Internet to make him feel alive. Would he ever agree on investment opportunities? Think about it, and put youself in his place. How exciting can tomorrow possibly be anyway?!

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