Dan Druff's 2022-23 NFL picks

[theywontpayontuesday]

I hate how it feels betting on sports.

[Dan Druff]

San Francisco at Philly - Under 44.5

[redietz]

Ugh. Bad pick.

Okay, I'm firing once more

Dallas +165 at San Francisco

I hope I'm not sorry for not sitting this out.

Had Dallas at 10-1 and +750 to win NFC. Needed Prescott to play like a human. Or Pollard to not get hurt. Prescott threw two picks, but it could have been five with where he was placing the ball.

Got back about a third of my original wager with hedging. I actually thought Dallas would win. Boy, they were a mess.

[monet]

Had Dallas at 10-1 and +750 to win NFC. Needed Prescott to play like a human. Or Pollard to not get hurt. Prescott threw two picks, but it could have been five with where he was placing the ball.

Got back about a third of my original wager with hedging. I actually thought Dallas would win. Boy, they were a mess.

You only cost yourself money when you hedge.
You know this.
Prove me wrong!

[Dan Druff]

Won the SF under. Going into the Superbowl, my season record stands at 53-32-2, +24.98 units.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Had Dallas at 10-1 and +750 to win NFC. Needed Prescott to play like a human. Or Pollard to not get hurt. Prescott threw two picks, but it could have been five with where he was placing the ball.

Got back about a third of my original wager with hedging. I actually thought Dallas would win. Boy, they were a mess.

You only cost yourself money when you hedge.
You know this.
Prove me wrong!

I disagree. If your confidence has changed, it is ok. If you have realized you have bet too much money, it is ok. To say you shouldn't hedge usually assumes nothing has changed at all, the odds of winning are the same and the amount bet relative to your BR and personal finances are the same. Having said this, I don't think I have ever hedged and haven't done it even when I lost my confidence. Recently I did bet too much on the Eagles and was really thinking I had made a mistake, but I never hedged. I thought about taking a risk free offer on SF, but it didn't seem worth it and I would have rather just bet more on the Eagles.

[kewlJ]

Had Dallas at 10-1 and +750 to win NFC. Needed Prescott to play like a human. Or Pollard to not get hurt. Prescott threw two picks, but it could have been five with where he was placing the ball.

Got back about a third of my original wager with hedging. I actually thought Dallas would win. Boy, they were a mess.

You only cost yourself money when you hedge.
You know this.
Prove me wrong!

I disagree. If your confidence has changed, it is ok. If you have realized you have bet too much money, it is ok. To say you shouldn't hedge usually assumes nothing has changed at all, the odds of winning are the same and the amount bet relative to your BR and personal finances are the same. Having said this, I don't think I have ever hedged and haven't done it even when I lost my confidence. Recently I did bet too much on the Eagles and was really thinking I had made a mistake, but I never hedged. I thought about taking a risk free offer on SF, but it didn't seem worth it and I would have rather just bet more on the Eagles.

I also disagree for different reasons, but wasn't going to mention it as didn't want to get monet riled up.

I know players that will make a 4 team parlay going off at different times, win the first 3 legs and then hedge the 4th game. I do agree this is dumb. If this is the way you felt, then why didn't you just bet the first 3 leg?

But the instances I am specifically thinking of are longer term, longer odds futures type wagers. When you pick a team to win the championship at 40-1, 50-1, 100-1, you aren't really betting them to win the championship. You are betting them to get to the playoff games in college football, or the final 4 in college basketball, or deep into the playoffs in baseball or the NFL, so that you CAN hedge and make good money. Hedging isn't some panic play, it is planned from the start with these types of wagers.

The second thing is that with these kinds of long-term wagers over weeks and months, circumstances change, players get hurt or traded So it seems perfectly acceptable to re-evaluate based on current and new information and circumstances. If you don't take new information and circumstances into account, you are kind of an idiot, aren't you?

[Dan Druff]

Superbowl over 51

[kewlJ]

Superbowl over 51

Good call Druff. Wraps up a very nice NFL season for you. Congrats.

Boy the over looks easy now. It was one of those games where if you had bet the over for the 1st quarter, half and game, you would have swept and done so by midway through the 3rd quarter.

[Dan Druff]

Final record:

54-32-2, +25.89 units

Very nice season. Hopefully I can duplicate this in the 23-24 campaign.

[redietz]

Final record:

54-32-2, +25.89 units

Very nice season. Hopefully I can duplicate this in the 23-24 campaign.

Very, very solid. High volume, high percentage, high return on investment. Bordering on spectacular. In most years of Mike McCusker's "Tipsters or Gypsters?" handicappers' report, which often featured about a hundred well-known handicappers, that NFL record would have been in contention for the top overall profit spot. And it would have put you top five (maybe top couple, depending on the year) in percentage and return on investment.

[redietz]

I also wanted to add that Todd shorted himself in his overall record. I don't recall the exact result, but he bet and counted one of his results with a really bad line, so one of his pushes should have been a win, or one of his losses should have been a push, assuming you did any shopping. I wasn't going out of my way to be generous, so he really did short himself half a game.