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Thread: Dan Druff's 2022-23 NFL picks

  1. #121
    I hate how it feels betting on sports.

  2. #122
    San Francisco at Philly - Under 44.5
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #123
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Ugh. Bad pick.

    Okay, I'm firing once more

    Dallas +165 at San Francisco

    I hope I'm not sorry for not sitting this out.

    Had Dallas at 10-1 and +750 to win NFC. Needed Prescott to play like a human. Or Pollard to not get hurt. Prescott threw two picks, but it could have been five with where he was placing the ball.

    Got back about a third of my original wager with hedging. I actually thought Dallas would win. Boy, they were a mess.

  4. #124
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Had Dallas at 10-1 and +750 to win NFC. Needed Prescott to play like a human. Or Pollard to not get hurt. Prescott threw two picks, but it could have been five with where he was placing the ball.

    Got back about a third of my original wager with hedging. I actually thought Dallas would win. Boy, they were a mess.
    You only cost yourself money when you hedge.
    You know this.
    Prove me wrong!

  5. #125
    Won the SF under. Going into the Superbowl, my season record stands at 53-32-2, +24.98 units.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #126
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Had Dallas at 10-1 and +750 to win NFC. Needed Prescott to play like a human. Or Pollard to not get hurt. Prescott threw two picks, but it could have been five with where he was placing the ball.

    Got back about a third of my original wager with hedging. I actually thought Dallas would win. Boy, they were a mess.
    You only cost yourself money when you hedge.
    You know this.
    Prove me wrong!
    I disagree. If your confidence has changed, it is ok. If you have realized you have bet too much money, it is ok. To say you shouldn't hedge usually assumes nothing has changed at all, the odds of winning are the same and the amount bet relative to your BR and personal finances are the same. Having said this, I don't think I have ever hedged and haven't done it even when I lost my confidence. Recently I did bet too much on the Eagles and was really thinking I had made a mistake, but I never hedged. I thought about taking a risk free offer on SF, but it didn't seem worth it and I would have rather just bet more on the Eagles.

  7. #127
    Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Had Dallas at 10-1 and +750 to win NFC. Needed Prescott to play like a human. Or Pollard to not get hurt. Prescott threw two picks, but it could have been five with where he was placing the ball.

    Got back about a third of my original wager with hedging. I actually thought Dallas would win. Boy, they were a mess.
    You only cost yourself money when you hedge.
    You know this.
    Prove me wrong!
    I disagree. If your confidence has changed, it is ok. If you have realized you have bet too much money, it is ok. To say you shouldn't hedge usually assumes nothing has changed at all, the odds of winning are the same and the amount bet relative to your BR and personal finances are the same. Having said this, I don't think I have ever hedged and haven't done it even when I lost my confidence. Recently I did bet too much on the Eagles and was really thinking I had made a mistake, but I never hedged. I thought about taking a risk free offer on SF, but it didn't seem worth it and I would have rather just bet more on the Eagles.
    I also disagree for different reasons, but wasn't going to mention it as didn't want to get monet riled up.

    I know players that will make a 4 team parlay going off at different times, win the first 3 legs and then hedge the 4th game. I do agree this is dumb. If this is the way you felt, then why didn't you just bet the first 3 leg?

    But the instances I am specifically thinking of are longer term, longer odds futures type wagers. When you pick a team to win the championship at 40-1, 50-1, 100-1, you aren't really betting them to win the championship. You are betting them to get to the playoff games in college football, or the final 4 in college basketball, or deep into the playoffs in baseball or the NFL, so that you CAN hedge and make good money. Hedging isn't some panic play, it is planned from the start with these types of wagers.

    The second thing is that with these kinds of long-term wagers over weeks and months, circumstances change, players get hurt or traded So it seems perfectly acceptable to re-evaluate based on current and new information and circumstances. If you don't take new information and circumstances into account, you are kind of an idiot, aren't you?

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